Hey everyone good morning, welcome back. Oh my gosh. Okay, we got uh the numbers that are not that great and also potentially more recession, indicators on the way which at this point should be a no surprise. Let's talk about the data talk about what's going on in the market, so first, the empire state manufacturing index, which we talked about yesterday, was expected to come in at 16.5, came in at negative 11.6, and this survey in number under zero represents not only a plunge In orders and shipments but contraction right, because you could obviously plunge from growth of 16.5 to let's say one, but it actually came in at negative 11.6.

Not only the data. Looking bad, though, there's another tool that can actually be used to tell us if a recession is coming and it's never been wrong. Never now the data was created, the data set was created in the early 80s. So it's been right since then.

It's not one of the oldest indicators, but it's been right since then, and it's called construction employment. It's been right every time and when it goes negative, that is when jobs are lost in construction employment. A recession is usually imminent within the next year. This is different from the inversion of the 10-2 yield curve, or a recession is usually imminent within 12 to 18 months.

The inversion of our 10-2 yield curve occurred on april 1st. Since then, it's actually been steepening. Now the construction employment gauge came in at adding just 2 000 jobs, so we're not negative yet, but we're on that track. We're really close to going negative and remember what happened with housing.

Construction starts last week month over month. Contraction after contraction after contraction believe we're. Now, at the third month in a row of housing, start contraction, which makes sense, because we expect the housing market to substantially slow down, and why would you hire contractors or build more homes if you think housing recession is coming anyway, tomorrow, retail sales data comes out, So we'll get to see how the consumer is reacting now uh warren buffett is going crazy. Buying this dip, so uh warren buffett over the last few weeks has bought even an additional 1 million shares of occidental petroleum.

A lot of folks are like. Why are you not buying eevee, but honestly, berkshire, hathaway and warren buffett they've been some of the few who have been outperforming this mark and actually green, so they're killing it on their oil place here looks like they believe that playing oil is is going to be A move that will uh profit them longer than uh than the brief profit that we expected. I think many folks believe that the war, including myself, would be over uh. You know by by may it's still may so, we'll see or by the end of may, and obviously that that could potentially lead to a plunge in commodity prices, but my guess is uh buffett believes this.

This is going to take a while an interesting thought. Uh he's also going heavy on that uh arbitrage between activision blizzard, so anytime, you see them below about 94 bucks. Uh warren buffett seems to be buying that to take the profit between where they're trading and 94 bucks remember anytime, you get an arbitrage sort of like with twitter, where the stock is actually trading below 20. anytime.

It sells below that number. It's really just a way of the market saying we believe, there's risk that the deal is not going to happen and when and if that deal doesn't happen, we believe the stock will actually plummet thereafter, anyway, over the past six months, berkshire hathaway is up 8.7. This is compared to the s p 500, which is down 14.5 in the last six months. Pretty incredible! Okay! Here are a couple of other things that we have coming up this week, so we have earnings coming from walmart home depot on tuesday we've got lowe's and target wednesday we've uh we've we've got.

You know an idea that maybe these will be a neat leading indicator for uh consumer sentiment. Also, i mean, i know we get retail sales data tomorrow, but i want to know from the executives hey. Are they seeing a slow down at home depot and lowe's? Yet it might be a little bit too early, so i don't know if we'll see it for sure. Yet mostly because it you know, housing prices haven't turned over.

Yet right that's going to take another six months, so i would not exactly expect home depot and lowe's to really tell us anything surprising it, but i would be curious to see the difference between target and walmart. I personally see both of them as staples, but technically walmart is a staple target, is a discretionary. So if we see that that reduction in target, but then a pickup in walmart, maybe that could be an indicator that oh yep people are finally starting to make those choices again, where it's like. Oh no, i need to.

I need to spend less money, so i'll get some of the less i'll skip the archer farms and i'll go for the walmart brand right, archer farms being the target uh in-house brand, which they've really sort of casted as sort of a luxury style. Anyway, we got a bunch of fed speak this week as well. I i personally, i hate it when we have fed speak, but literally almost every single day we get fed speak here. We got williams, uh 8 55 a.m.

Monday, we've got bullard tuesday, 8 a.m, hawker tuesday, 9, 15 a.m, powell, tuesday, 2 p.m, mester, 2, 30, p.m, tuesday, evan's, 2, 30, uh, sorry, 6, 45, p.m, uh, okay! Well, i guess it's just today and tomorrow, but that's that's a whole lot of fed speak. I hate i wish they would just shut the f up for once. Could you just take freaking week off and whatever at this point, i think it's all pretty clear what the fed's going to tell us. So i'm not really expecting any surprises that we've we've got plenty of insight from the fed so far, but anyway talk briefly about china, china's headline jobless rate surged to a two-year high now of 6.1 percent.

Obviously, since the pandemic, this makes sense, given the lockdown they've got going on uh, their consumer spending was down 11.1 percent in april. That is the second monthly decline biggest contraction since march of 2020.. Remember folks, the consumers saving four times as much money than they used to and uh as of at least january compared to january, so that was year-over-year data there and uh. We we expect this, because we believe that china is already in a recession and so keep in mind that this could happen.

In the united states too. We could actually start seeing the unemployment rate tick up as uh. We start seeing potentially construction layoffs or who knows what else in the market. Oh wow.

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As long as you press that link down below download their app throw in meet kev and boom there, you go all right. Let's see mcdonald's says they're going to quit: russia they're going to sell their franchises there. That ends over three decades of work. Over there, russia and ukraine accounted for about nine percent of mcdonald's revenue.

Uh then we've got uh. You know a lot of people are like yeah, you know good job mcdonald's, but i think most of those were really franchises anyway. The vast majority of them so anyway, uh the profits are going to be lower from franchises right. Other news, uh jetblue, says it plans to launch a hostile takeover attempt for spirit.

This is, after their last deal, got rejected. That's because spirit rejected the 3.6 billion dollar offer, because they wanted to do a deal with frontier. A lot of people believe that jet blue wants to buy uh spirit just to get the planes and the pilots, not because they want to go into the discount business, because it's so difficult to get new planes and pilots right now and there's so much travel demand. Anyway, so uh folks fingers crossed that, maybe we can actually close green today we got some bad news, some more recession, indicators not happy about it, but you know what it is.

What it is. I love you all folks, i'm sorry. We are in a poopy doopy scoopy crappy market, but folks, i'm here with you we'll see you soon. Bye,.