Hey everyone me kevin here, so i'm uh just in miami for the all-in convention - and i wanted to give some catalyst for this week because we've got a few of them but honestly they're, making me optimistic and i'll tell you why all right! So here's what's going to happen on the 16th, which is tomorrow at 5, 30 a.m. We're going to get manufacturing data. The expectation is we're going to get a read of 15, which is much lower than the 24.6 we had before the surveyed expectation again. 15..

That's already pretty dang low and this sort of reiterates what we've been seeing in the market is that the market is just pricing in so much pain and so survey expectations. For some of these. These reads are also coming in low because it's a lot of pessimism right now. In fact, you go to the front page of bloomberg.com, at least at the time of this recording and it's kind of been there all freaking day, long uh, it's it's about a report of how you know goldman says we got ta prepare for a recession.

It's like dude, that's what we were talking about in january, like you should prepare for it in january, because, quite frankly, we're probably in it right now. So it's like it's too late to prepare, like hopefully, you've already started preparing. You know cutting some expenses and just being ready to ride uh through a very difficult stock market and then obviously buying as much as freaking possible at massive discounts. Sure can things fall more.

Of course, we extended ten percent past the bottom, zero percent on the fibonacci line, all the way down to about 288 on the qqq same thing, with what we saw with spy and the other indices. It's a problem so that manufacturing report, in my opinion, not going to be something i'm super worried about the next one. However, that comes out tuesday morning this one's a little bit more of a oh. This one could cause some problems.

Okay, so i want to mention this, but i'm going to first, throw in the mention that, of course, this video is brought to you by the programs link down below with an expiring coupon code down below and ftx, where, if you sign up with ftx via the Link down below use code meet kev at checkout and trade crypto over ten dollars. You will get free crypto every single time. You trade, remember the founder of ftx and just bought over seven percent of robinhood, so stay tuned for some exciting announcements from ftx. Okay, now uh: let's talk about this retail number all right! This is going to be big, so may 17th.

5. 30 a.m. That's california, time 8, 30 eastern time we're going to get retail sales month of a month. A figures give me one sec.

There we go! Okay, so we are expecting a survey of retail sales month over month of one percent. That's actually up from the point seven percent we had last month, so we're expecting a lot of excitement for that retail sales number and i'm kind of curious about that, because it sort of implies that we hit this wall in march and got a low read in March, maybe with some pessimism in march, as we had a full month of the shock of oh, my gosh, the war, russia, ukraine, what's going to happen, but i'm wondering if this is because in april a lot a lot of indicators suggested people were going back to Spending but we've had a lot of mixed data in april and that's where i actually think the clarity of that retail sales number is going to be really important, because we've seen so much talk about travel spending being absolutely incredible and we've had talk about uh. You know a firm seeing their numbers go super green and credit card spending, especially amongst the higher income. Demographics just absolutely blow up.

So i'm kind of curious to see. Are we actually going to come in line with that? One percent? Month-Over-Month growth? It's quite an optimistic! Read for retail sales increase, or are we going to miss that if we missed that, we could end up having some issues but either way a nice push from the month prior where we were definitely weighted down by autos and gas now autos and gas? If we look at retail sales, excluding autos and gas still expecting a 0.7 increase, that's pretty strong 0.7 points to about an 8.4 annual retail sales increase. Remember the consumer makes up over 70 percent of the economy. So that's quite good.

Industrial production comes out that morning. As well expecting a half percent increase so a little bit slow, more slowness expected in manufacturing, but still those retail sales great housing starts come out the 18th, which is a wednesday morning. Housing starts and mortgage applications come out that morning as well. Housing starts expected to be down 1.8 month over month, as well as building permits expected to be down 3.1 percent month over month.

That's a substantial, declining building permits somewhat sending a little bit of a red flag for like the lows, the home depot and the home builders that builders are starting to slow down their uh, especially as we see that trend continue their expectations for the housing market. Over the next couple years is we're in this new interest rate regime, which obviously you already know that i've been arguing that we expect real estate prices to really come down substantially between the next three to 12 months. We don't know if we're just going to absorb that excess demand and therefore potentially stay flat or fall. Maybe you know zero to five percent or if we're going to go heavy and fall somewhere between 10 to 20.

Who knows, i don't expect we'll have something like an 08 where we get like a nice 40 discount, which obviously isn't nice for existing commerce, but it is for potential buyers, but we're going to keep an eye on it and i'll keep reporting it to you. Uh. The next day on the 19th we'll get existing home sales, which we expect to be down about 2.5 month over month and folks, honestly, that's it that's it for the week now there are other things that we want to pay attention to. I wouldn't talk about those.

Let me just page over to them there we go okay, so the next thing that we want to pay attention to is the yield curve right now, it's at 33 basis points. We want to see how it moves throughout the week. These are not a lot of catalysts for this week and, quite frankly, in my opinion, maybe that means we could go back to the moon, which is also the coupon code. That's expiring: tomorrow: okay, we're gon na have the largest price increase ever because we've got some exciting new content coming out, and i want to reward the people who are already in the program so who can take advantage of all of them, whether it's property management, new Content we have coming for real estate, new content.

We have coming for the wealth course. Everything five year break even did move up a little bit as consumer sentiment declined a bit last week, but inflation expectations remained anchored now, whether or not that anchoring is a good or bad thing is up in the air. I believe it's a good thing, because it's an indication that we're not expecting this runaway inflation and eventually we're expecting inflation to come down, but maybe it's potentially via the five-year break, even markets were hoping that inflation expectations would actually start turning down. I really don't expect to see a u-turn substantially to the downside and actually inflation starting to come down, which will reiterate those expectations coming to the downside right, they kind of reiterate each other they're like self-fulfilling prophecies.

If inflation starts coming down, inflation expectations start coming down right that can, but that sort of inflection that dual inflection point i expect we'll probably see closer to august and september and really by then. I think this bear market will be over. I've been kind of saying that since january, that i think we're gon na have a lot of volatility until really the end of the year and the more people talk about a recession now, the more i'm kind of like. Oh, if you think we're in a recession now this is exactly what i want to be buying uh.

Obviously we have this uh horrific shooting and my heart goes out to. Obviously everyone involved here, there's going to be a constant debate about weapons and weapons uses here. We do know that the individual used illegal, high-capacity magazines in the state but did purchase the firearm legally and was apparently somebody who had previously talked about mass shootings and and was uh mentally screened for a day and uh. What came out of that? Apparently nothing.

Let them go after a day to a day and a half, well a lot more to dig in on that, and this is not going to be a politics video, but i did want to bring it up in case. Obviously we haven't heard about the disaster in buffalo new york yesterday, although i expect that you have - and i do want to also mention that as we've been talking about ftx, i do like our futures sort of predictions based on. What's crypto is doing and right now we've got btc at almost thirty one thousand. It's up about four percent here in the last 24 hours still down about 10 percent uh on the week, though, but we are seeing a move back to the upside and we are seeing indice futures right now, uh that uh, actually, no i'm sorry, indice futures come Out in about two minutes, which is gon na, be roughly um when i'm already done with the video, so uh fingers crossed that crypto futures imply at least somewhat of a positive open for futures, you'll, probably be able to see futures uh in just a moment.

If you don't yet know where i like looking at futures, it's actually just investing.com go to investing.com at the top, make sure you don't click on major indices, make sure you click at indices, futures, alright, folks, thanks so much for watching get that coupon code link down Below expires tomorrow and ftx buy the link down below thanks so much bye.