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Hey this is tom nash, and after the couple days we just saw i'm sure you're all wondering the same thing. How long is this thing going to last i mean this: bear market is basically out of control. How long until we get to some sort of a bottom, and is this a good time now to start buying the dip at least tech? Well, i'm gon na answer all those questions in just a minute stay with me hey! This is tom, and thank you for staying with me and over the past two years we're putting a lot of money into the system. The money printer went extra extra hard and we also made interest free, which means that there's no point in saving money.
You're not getting any interest, and it's really easy to borrow money. It's literally free that meant that a lot of people and businesses were buying up stuff like crazy and, of course, what happens when a lot of people are buying a little amount of stuff. The price of stuff goes up, it's just economics, 101, and you know. Stuff makers, of course increases the price of stuff and eventually, what ended up happening, as you know, it always does.
The price of a cucumber is now half of your salary and the government says: well, that's not good we're about to get fired. We got to solve this and basically they're trying to solve it by reducing the amount of money in the system and trying to implement some cost on borrowing money, because if you have cost and borrowing money, businesses have more trouble to borrow money and you are more Incentivized to put money in a savings account instead of buying a new imac or whatever. It is right, and that basically leads to less money, printing higher interest and a slowdown of the economy. Because if you have less money to spend and you're more incentivized to save and businesses have less money to borrow and develop that leads to a shrinking of the activity.
Basically, their businesses are firing, people saying well, we don't need as many of you as we thought, because business is slow, so they fire a few people in the beginning. Those two people now don't have a salary, so they don't have any money to spend so they're buying less stuff and eventually more businesses close because more people are buying less stuff and eventually there's a cycle of shrinkage to the economy, eventually leading to one of two Results either a recession or a depression. Now here's what's going to happen. We either going to see a soft landing which is good or we're going to see a very hard crash, which is bad.
Nobody really knows which one is going to happen, except maybe jim crane, but the thing is one thing is for certain: if we get out of this thing with basically being able to breathe and the market is basically being at some sort of equilibrium, that's going to Be a huge success for the fed, because they're going to eliminate inflation and still keep the market alive. However, there's always a possibility. It's going to be a very hard landing and a terrifying crash in which the fed in its attempt to slow down inflation, is going to crash the market in the economy and that's the scary scenario. Now i don't know which one will happen, but the stock market actually has a lot of data on previous crashes, which we can tap into and find out how long this bear market is going to last, and is it a good time to start buying the dip? Now, over the past 140 years, we had almost 20 crashes and there's a lot of data in there, which we can use and, first of all, let me give you a word of reassurance if you're looking for some good news, at least statistically speaking crashes and bear Markets tend to last less time than bull markets. So if you wanted some good news there, it is. The problem is, there's not a lot of more good news in there, because, statistically speaking crash or bear market is at 35, 37 40, so anywhere from 35 to 40 is the average and it usually lasts about a year. And when i say a year i mean a year until it stabilizes there's at least one more year until it starts to go up so probably a good part of a year to two years now, looking at this market, we're not exactly there yet and i'll explain Why and again this is just statistics, and you know past performance does not guarantee what's going to happen in this crisis right, but this is just an assumption based on statistical historical data right now we're down about 23 on the nasdaq from the highs we saw on December 27 and the nasdaq of course, would be representing here the tech sector. Now the dow jones and the s p 500 are not there.
Yet. The dow is about 10 down the s p about 13 down, but at least as far as the nasdaq goes. It just blew past the definition of a bear market for those of you who are not familiar with this. The definition of a bear market is 20, so the only one of these three indexes that went below 20 percent - this was the nasdaq and the tech sector.
The dow the s p, are about to join that club. It seems based on everything, that's going on right now, but they're not there yet. So the question is now that we're there is this a good time to start? You know nibbling on some tech stocks at these prices. Well, not necessarily.
Let me show you some data and before you go crazy, there's two things you need to understand here: number one: this isn't a recession, this isn't a craziness. This is just a bear market for one of the indices. This is not the end of the world yet now the other thing is, you have to understand that these are statistics. These are medians.
These are averages, which means things can be much better or much worse. In individual specific cases, so if you look at it at 37 and two years, it can be worse as far as 2007 concerns, which was the latest crash that we actually seen in the latest bear market. The s p, 500 dropped 56 and it took it three years to get back to the same point so longer and harder and again there's a lot of jokes. We can say about it, but we won't because this is a family video. But all i'm saying here is that individual cases can differ and past results don't guarantee nothing, but if you want to benchmark even based on the current stats, we're not there. Yet, as far as the timing and the amount of drop we saw, so i'm not going to be dca dollar cost averaging into this market anytime soon, because the journey from that bottom to the all-time highs can take a lot of time more than a decade. Sometimes you never know, i wouldn't count on that, but here's the thing if you're trying to wonder is this the bottom ask yourself this question: if you're sitting in a card game and you're trying to figure out who's the patsy and you can't figure it out, you Know that means that you're, the patsy right, if you're asking if this is the bottom, this means this isn't the bottom. You will know when the bottom hits trust me.
Now again, i don't mean to fear monger here. Let me know below, if you agree with me, if you disagree with me, a huge shout out to the newest channel members and patrons i'm going to list them in a second on the screen. Thank you for joining the community. I really appreciate it see you.
Tomorrow's video 30 hertz straight up.
I think we are def going to a recession not because of inflation but because of supply chain issues….If you have lower amount of products, all economies will slow down… and ppl get laid off.
were going to get 2 more 1/2 point rate increases the fed will declare victory and go home because the national debt interest payment is based off the fed rate and they cant pay 1.5 Trillion in interest and they know demand is not the real problem anyway and they can do nothing to help the supply side so they are just buying time the CPI report does not count food or energy and tv prices are going down so were good China lock downs will end Putin will declare victory over the NAZi we will produce more in the US there is to much new tech EVs AI for the economy to collapse
have been buying the dip since dec. i don’t care anymore when i see a red day. lost all feelings. numb to the bone at this point.
Buying the dip and then the dip dip and they the dippy dip and then the dippy dip dip . So might as well buy some chips cause at least that will make you feel good.
I agree. Yet I keep DCAing into my high conviction plays. Can't help myself. 😂 Let's me feel like I'm participating. Like you've said before, it won't really matter 10 years from now if I'm buying PLTR at $10 or $20. Just trying to accumulate as many shares as I can. Thanks again for another informative video!
It's funny that you give a cucumber comparison. There is literally a running joke in my country, that someone is rich when they buy cucumbers 😀 so things I pretty bad
These types of videos are the best in my opinion. Short, concise, honest and factual.
It won't generate huge views Vs his Palantir videos etc but these are the ones that carry the most value.
Agreed. As much as those who were investing in high-tech and main stream media want you to believe this is the bottom. It's not. It's just getting started and as Tom alluded to, it could take a while to recover so buckle up.
The united Wall st. is tanking the whole market to put fear in retail investors to sell. Just like plandemic.
The March 2020 low looks to me to be the bottom when we get there— buy the best companys, don't be afraid. spread your money out on long term holds—- plan not to change anything for 5 years
—for myself I will be holding this group of stocks untouched for 10 years–I have no need for this money until then—- I will be right on almost every pick —- I may have a few duds, I'm ok with that —— I may want a Yacht or just a pile of moneyNo Tom most people will not kow where the bottom is. That's because in hindsight the bottom is always associated with peak fear,pain and skepticism. At which point people always think the markets going lower.
You made yourself synonymous with PLTR over the last year, so you're the person I think of when I come over the stock. Is no surprise this stock is down over the last year, as well as the market. I've watehd your videos on why thw stock is still a buy, but how can you have so strong conviction as the CEO continues to sell his shares. You made a video a few weeks ago on how you were putting as much $ as you can to average down around the $13 area. With the stock being now below $10, 30% lower than were you started to average more in just a few weeks ago, do still have conviction in the company? At what level do you admit you're wrong? Any stock can keep going down and if you hold long enough, it'll eventually go back green with proper earnings. But I'm asking for the stock, not the company, where do you draw a line? Is it $8, $7, $5, $2? Or do you just keep on holding untik it eventually goes up over your ACV and then sell? I'm making the observation as being in this stock just destruction to capital compared to being in cash, which you lose less based on 7% inflation. I'm not a hater, so this is coming as a person who follows you and many here would agree you been PLTR biggest fan boy. I remember a year ago, I asked why not sell covered calls on your position and you mentioned you don't do any of that in any of your positions, (PLTR, TSLA, etc.). My question as well, why not? None of these offer dividend while you hold, so why not create yourself a buffer while holding these high value stock? And I keep mentioning stock and not companies, as most time the stock doesn't reflect what the company is actually doing. By saying you can make 30% on TWTR until October. You can do that in the current market by just shorting PLTR on a 15% up day and ride it lower until it finds a bottom. I just really want to get your insight while disconnecting yourself as you not owning it to get your clear prospective.
Thanks
people expect a bull market to last a year and a half but a bear market 2 weeks
Holding cash is fine as long as you don't need it to buy goods and services with the current inflation we have. Holding cash, it increases in value relative to stocks. So I'll continue to hold 60% of my portfolio in cash. I don't believe we're near bottom, yet because:
1. Margin debt is still way too high. The latest numbers show we still have 600-800bn in margin debt after being over a trillion for the past year. Too much cheap money was borrowed and put in the stock market and deleveraging still needs to happen. Big funds will liquidate further to meet margin calls.
2. Retail continues to buy the dip according to Bloomberg. I lived through the dot com bust and 2008. If there's one thing I'm certain of, the bottom is partially when retail capitulates and everyone's ETF's, index funds etc has taken a good solid beating. -12% on the S&P from ATH ain't a beating. Once retail has lost their shirts, Wallstreet covers, cashes in on their hedged positions, and turns back on the buying programs. It's how wealth is transferred to the very top. So as long as retail keeps vigorously buying, wallstreet will keep dumping.
3. People say "this isn't like the dot com bubble. This isn't a financial crisis like 2008. This is different." Yeah I've heard that one before. The same maxim applies. Wallstreet has to get out with theirs, and until they do and they're comfortable, retail will be beaten hard and this is going down with bear market rally pump and dumps in the interim.
Fed is doing a pretty descent job of letting people know the interest increase so chances of Fed going too aggressive is unlikely thanks to many reasons you already covered. Obviously no one knows where the bottom is but it can’t be too far for even money making tech companies that lost 80% of their value.
Palantir first broke out when indexes moved to the downside, ssss is a good proxy trade
Learn how to swing trade. That’s all I’m saying.
I’m still dollar cost averaging but in a over all market ETF, not in individual stocks. The only stocks I’m YOLO’ing in to is Tesla, Dollar General, Palantir, DWAC and GGPI. And not that much in Palantir and Dollar General. With the individual stocks it’s a set amount in and that’s it. No DCA.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS SWING TRADING using technicals. Options on TLT, SQQQ, TQQQ, WEAT, CANE, CORN, RIVN, DIS, GME
Picking tops and bottoms is impossible – good solid dividend companies are the way to go – average in slowly & diversify.
Given the massive recent increases in retail trading, info, speed of access, algorithmic trading & ETF holdings I would bet any near-future "crash" will be harder & broader but much faster than before. Which is why I'm holding 40% cash with the plan of buying every large dip until I run out of capital. I just hope my baseline assumptions are within the margin for error.
Good luck out there!
I agree 100%. Looking at past crisis, this one is nothing yet. And this time there a lot of catalysts. But those who are smarter than me, disagree.
Dollar Cost Average works as the market corrects because your $$ buys more on the down side. If the share price represents Fair Market Value over time then the eventual correction turns. Profit is then derived as corrections always ride momentum. Momentum swings but only after quarters are in the record books.The big question is when will there be, "blood in the streets"?
Agree with “the worst might yet to come”
Disagree wit “not DCA yet” since for most people the best strategy is to pick superior companies and increase ownership in them over time. So DCA all the time…thats why its DCA
I am buying every two weeks (PLTR that is)
I see only two possibilities. One hyper inflation or two depression. The Fed CANT "save" the economy because the ONLY way to save it is to remove welfare. The government spends over 75% of their "budget" on welfare. The welfare states are hurting the economy.
LOL who cares where the bottom is? Just stay short and stop trying to predict the unpredictable. Bear markets are great. Just hold QID and RWM and laugh at the stinky bottom pickers.
I'll be 100% honest . I've been unsubscribing to my favourite youtubers primarily because they are adopting this convention of vaguely titling videos and the exeggerated expressions in the thumbnails. It's a form of click bait and it's disappointing to see another one take this approach
Good video, I’ll take your advice over Brian 🌹 & his latest scam called DeFi Academy.
🤣🤣🤣
People should really stop watching cnn lol this is not stopping as long as Biden is president 😂
I want it to really tank, another 40-50% i hope, its how real wealth is made
Hey Tom! Do you think that the next CPI numbers will be lower/Improve? I feel like if the CPI number improve people will finally trust the FED and what they said a few days ago and the market will most likely bounce back.
We haven’t even started going down. Wait till the layoff start. Then when they stop firing, stop losing money and revenue stabilizes, then buy your long term position
Just go with the flow. Don’t tug on superman’s cape, don’t spit into the wind. 😃