Hey this is tom and many many years ago, when i was a kid, we had a family get together and my uncle dima got into a fight with my uncle ludmila. I bought some money stuff. I don't remember what happened but chairs ended up flying whole, olivier salads flew across the room. It was a complete pandemonium.

I've never been more scared in my life until i saw this market, this market scares the living crap out of me. It's absolutely terrifying, not because it's down, because the way it's behaving just thursday, the dow saw its biggest spike since 2020 and then just a day later, the biggest downswing in the day since 2020, and that's all within 48 hours, that sort of volatility that sort of Behavior makes me just want to say: hey, i'm out see you later, but you don't have to do that. Obviously you can always go to cash and set this one out and it's not necessarily a bad bad. Obviously, you're going to take a hit on inflation, but you're going to be completely insulated from the insanity of this market.

Look yesterday we saw some crazy numbers. Dow was down 3.1 percent on the day, the s p 500, three and a half percent of the day. Nasdaq down five percent of the day, bitcoin is down to thirty seven thousand dollars. The yields are going about three percent for the ten year bond and may i remind you the yields go up when the prices go down, so everything is piling downwards on this insane day.

We saw, however, in this video, like i promised this was not clickbait. I'm gon na show you how you can still walk away with seven and a half to twenty percent within the next six months to a year with very moderate risk. Definitely compared to what's going on in the equities market right now and no i'm not selling any courses or cryptocurrencies or any scams of that sort. I'm talking about playing blue chip equities in a way that eliminates a lot of this market risk with quite nice returns.

Definitely in this market, so this is something that the hedge funds have been doing for years. It's a very known strategy, but i believe in this market giving the two deals. We have right now on the table, it's very lucrative. Now again, this is not financial advice.

I'm not a financial advisor, i'm not just saying this for a disclaimer, i'm literally saying this, so you guys go and get some professional advice before you make any investment decisions and obviously you have to do the research for yourself. I'm just here to give you some ideas about my own research. So let's get started. So let's do this in two parts in part number one, i'm going to show you why the macro environment is just too hot right now to get into some new investments.

At least in equities and in the second part, i'll show you how you can insulate yourself from this macro environment and get seven and a half to twenty percent within the next six months to a year with the very minimal risk, according to my own opinion. Of course, so let's get started first of all, look it's not a very hospitable environment now for equities and as the federal reserve will increase interest rates more and more and it will it's going to get worse because the other thing the fed keeps doing while increasing The rates is actually buying less bonds in the market, so there's a liquidity crisis beginning to form less money in the system. Higher interest means less liquidity, less landing, less activity, basically screeching the economy to a hull. It's a very dangerous development and at these macro environments people are basically saying hey, i'm going to wait it out at least institutionals and big investors, and some of you may say well tom.

Maybe the fed will stop this. Maybe they will not be increasing rates. All that much well for that to happen, we have to see some decline in the inflation environment and, right now, it's going into the opposite. You've got all price going to 110 dollars per barrel.

You have supply chain shortages. China is looking down creating even more supply chain shortages, geopolitical crisis in ukraine, wars, massive global de-globalization processes, not to mention the fact that our own job market is boiling hot, with under four percent unemployment and the wage growth that also is adding to inflation. So every little factor that you can think of right now is making inflation worse. So it's very unlikely that the fed will have an option not to raise interest rates, given all these circumstances and when the rates will go up eventually, what it will do is that future valuations of profits will suffer because these interest rates represent also the cost of Capital - and that means that tech companies are going to take a massive hit, but everybody else every company has future profits.

Everything is going to take a massive hit because of this liquidity crisis because of inflation because of increase in rates because of devaluation of future profits. Everything is going to be pushing down, so the macro environment, i think we can all agree - is not looking good for the next six months to a year. However, not everything is doom and gloom. We have a solution, as i promised, to make seven and a half to twenty percent within six months to a year with little risk actually insulating.

You from this macro environment check this out. There's two deals on the table right now that can allow you to get seven and a half to twenty percent within six months to a year with little risk and those are the twitter acquisition and the acquisition of activision by microsoft. In these two deals, there's a big risk arbitrage element built in, and i believe this risk arbitrage does not represent how much money you can make on these deals. For example, you can make seven and a half percent on the twitter deal if you buy it now and wait until elon musk actually pays fifty four dollars and twenty cents per share when he actually completes the deal, that's seven and a half percent.

Now. May i remind you, i said this before when the gap was ten percent and those of you who listened already made two and a half percent that deal. I'm just saying it's only going to get closer and closer to 54 and 20 cents as elon raising more capital and as the deal becomes more and more probable. This is a deal and i made a whole video about it.

I'm going to put it right here explaining why there almost no risk in this deal, except for elon backing out of the deal or not getting any funding, and, as you can see, funding is being achieved and elon doesn't seem like he's about to back out. In fact, he just said he's going to be the interim ceo for a while. So this deal is a very likely deal to happen. The time frame is six months.

By october, they got ta close, so you're, looking at about seven and a half percent for six months, and this macro very interesting. The other deal is the acquisition of activision by microsoft. Warren buffett made a huge bet on it: five and a half billion dollars, but currently the price is below 80 per share 78 per share. The deal price is 95 dollars per share, so that means you're looking at a gap of about 20.

While this deal actually is pending now, of course, the bigger gap actually represents bigger risks, because this is a one-year deal. In fact, it should close by june 2023. So you have over a year of wait time double the time of twitter and this obviously double the risk, because there are regulatory issues, there's actual ftc anti-trust issues here, lena khan, the head of the ftc there's a whole debate there. I made a whole video about that right here.

I'm just gon na put it again and in this video explain to you why i think the risk is very low for this deal, given the video game market and how this deal positions, microsoft in that market, and i'm not the one saying this. We have a professor from the university of michigan, an expert to anti-trust law. Basically saying the same thing: all these anti-trust experts are saying that ftc does not have a case here and even though they might go for it for the pr element. They're not going to win this case.

So microsoft activision twitter, both opportunities to completely insulate because, when you're buying into a risk arbitrage deal when you're buying stock before the acquisition closes, all you need to look at is the probability of the deal closing the macro environment becomes irrelevant and what better time to Create irrelevance in the macro environment and pick up your seven and a half to twenty percent within six months to a year. Now, of course, nothing is guaranteed and if the deal fall through, you lose a lot of money. But all i'm saying in this macro with this risk profile on these two deals, it's very interesting now, let me know below, if you want me to do more of these or less whatever it is comment below. Thank you for the channel members.

Thank you. Patreons i'll see you tomorrow, 30 hertz straight up.