What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys tuning in this morning, um for those of you that follow me on twitter? Maybe for those of you that don't i do recommend you guys pop on to my twitter page from yesterday's feed and just kind of check out all the stuff that was posted yesterday, really went through like the whole trading day from when the markets are going down To when we were getting bounces and just a lot of cool informational stuff that i know many of you guys will find interesting or value in so definitely check it out. If you haven't been on the page for uh for a week or so or past couple days, all right, looking at the market uh now we have uh the market, nasdaq spy they've, given back the gains from wednesday, so we had went up and pretty much gave Back all the gains now in yesterday's video, the recommendation was to not be any more long, biased than 334 right. So what that means is, if you were long yesterday, you wouldn't think that the market was going to go higher than 334 without probably seeing some selling pressure or an attempt at selling the market didn't even get to 334 and it just ended up selling down right. So we have gone up and gone right back down, and so the way this sits is this was the previous support right.

You can see. We fell down on the nasdaq we bounced here. We broke out of this green line and that's like a flag breakup. If you may right, we pushed, and we consolidated for like a couple days right there and then a break up okay, and then we reverse that entire day.

So all of this bullish activity has been given back so the way you think about this uh in terms of psychology is that, from this bullish move everyone buying here and up through there, just got stopped out, and anybody buying here just got stopped out, and anybody That bought this dip is about to get knocked out too. So anybody who buys into the market is just waiting to become a seller all right right. No one buys into the market without the without the idea that at some point they're going to sell everybody, buys it and make money or they're going to lose, and so there's always going to be selling pressure a accommodated uh from buying. If that makes sense, right or other way around, so in buys they're going to be a seller, so we had a lot of buying here had some buying here and we're knocking those out.

So we're probably going to continue down here. Okay, now, when you're looking at the nasdaq itself, these were the previous lows. These were the previous lows right and so we're not quite through the most recent low. But the reason for the buying at the most recent low was this negative.

Two weekly deviation on the nasdaq and the negative three on the spy, so pretty much. What that means is once you take this level out here on the nasdaq, the market's going to go down. Okay and the first stop for the nasdaq is going to be that 305 price right there, which is the next green line down. Okay, so let's say market does go below the lows today and it sells off.

You can expect that we're going to go from 310 to probably 305 based on how the nasdaq is set up. Let's take a peek at the spy really quickly, because i know it's a little different. All right. Looking at the spy here, um get a good view at this.

Okay, so now we're looking at the spy previous those previous lows. So let's go to this one, and that would be so that's the most previous little four or five okay. So the way that this one sits is the uh the spy. Let me get my drawing tools here, so this is not exactly the same, but pretty similar, so we broke all the way up.

This was a pullback onto statistical probabilities, pre-market and into that day which pushes up. Then we get over the negative 2 kind of like the same thing, a flag up run down back under hold below so right. Now your 416 price is the resistance that is trying to continue that move. So yesterday spy breaks down we hit these deviations here, push up hold below, so that is the immediate continuation push trying to get the market to go this way.

So, in the event today, the spy takes out this 409 structure right there. You would then expect the market is going to try to continue pushing into prices of 400 pretty much 404 400. Basically back down to these lows all right. So the way it sits, markets still have bearish participants, selling the markets down and as long as the markets want to continue being bearish.

We're just going to look for the most recent deviation to be broken and therefore pushing us to the next deviation below all right. Another way you could think of this is we were selling downside, a straw, all right we're just going down resistance down negative three common bounce spot low risk back up sustain over six month trend can't break the weekly sustain over six months trend breaks over the wiki Wiki pulls back to the weekly just below holds the weekly holds. The weekly holds the weekly break below the weekly on the fed meeting back over the week on the fed meeting break out of the weekly break out of the dailies boom up to new six months. Start a slight downtrend lower high break six month trend here on this day runs back down to the daily back down to the weekly.

Now we break below the weekly we hit the sixth month we bounce to the weekly back to the sixth month back towards the weekly down down down, can't get above the weekly. So this right now is your resistance. So you can almost think to yourself that we're in a similar situation to this, but on the downside, okay, and how and not that we're going to get the same, aggressive move. But the concept being is see how the weekly was.

Resistance was resistance. We got over, we held and we broke out and we ran that way. Well now we're under so this right here like pretty much this moment right, it's kind of what we did yesterday right. We broke below.

Instead of breaking up and over we broke below the weekly held below the weekly. Then we held the sixth month all right and if you think about the six month holding right here, it's the same thing except opposite. When you know we did it here right, we broke over the sixth month and held held to six months right. So the reason for these dips here were the six month trend.

Okay, trying to see if the market gave it over the weekly it did broke out, but now we're back under holding below the weekly trying to remain above the six month. If we take out the six months, there's nothing to hold until 404s, okay, which well and rephrase that, if we break below the six months - and we trend out to the downside, there's no statistical probability until the price of 404 52 right now, which is that blue Line okay. Now, where does that blue line line up with? Let's go straight across? Well, i guess i should do it like this right. So that's the blue line right there we go straight across.

Where does the line up with the previous low? Okay? So pretty much once we take out the six month, we're expecting the s p 500 to trend into the 400 prices, okay and then once we get into this zone right here, pretty much this entire zone, the 404 to the 390s on the spy you're most likely Going to see some bouncing down in the lower range of that because usually that's just the way it goes and then obviously, once you take out that price point, then you'd start opening up the door to these 380s 370s and it's my belief one day we're going To see 364., so let's say show scenario happens: we break all this slam down to 364.. This is where i think you would buy a low risk dip and your first anticipation would be back up to 379 and then arguably back into the 390s and then we'd be retesting, the previous low breakdown and that's where we would, anyway, it doesn't matter so yeah. I mean that's that that's pretty much it um a little side. One for you is a good old bitcoin for those of you that have been following uh.

My twitter, you guys know i've been predominantly bearish uh talking about bitcoin going down. We just got a really really ugly snap there. Yesterday um, the downward kind of wedging formation broke down, see you right here. This is the six month trend bitcoin's been holding the six-month statistical trend, pushing it downwards into the negative one weekly support, which are the orange lines and the six-month trend yesterday, just pushed it with enough bearish momentum to break the one year.

Negative one deviation support trend so now that we have broken below you expect. That is your resistance. So all the counter trend, bounces into here, expected to be sold, pushing it trying to reach the prices of 32 to 33 000. So i think over the next week um - and it also depends on how the market trades bitcoin has been um.

There's been a lot of correlation in price movement between bitcoin and the overall market. So it is the expectation, um or yeah. It's it's expected bitcoins going down, it's going to continue going down in my opinion and partly because i think the markets are going to be bearish for a long time. So if the overall markets are bearish, then you'd expect bitcoin's going to be bearish, because right now the correlation between those two classes are very high.

So many times when the market goes up, bitcoin goes up now. Well, when the market goes down just like it did. Yesterday, bitcoin goes down so unless you think the markets are going to go up, chances are bitcoin unless the market's going to go up, bitcoin's not going to go up unless we start to um see less of a correlation there. So that being said, um the next price target down for bitcoin we're looking at is the uh negative one six month trend so six month, negative one deviation trend.

Those price points are right here at 32, 605. 31137. So that's right here: okay and um. Again, if you were to go to that level - and you draw some horizontal lines, where does it line up with the previous low - pretty much - maybe not perfectly, but pretty much like right there, so the six month trend target down is the previous low.

Okay and just a little further taking out the previous low you're going to look into the prices of 29 000 to 28 000. After that, then you look to 25 000.. After that you look to 20 000 and this would most likely be a guaranteed bounce zone. In the event, you see bitcoin all the way, which would be kind of crazy, but you never know in the event you saw bitcoin all the way down trading anywhere in the 20 to this range there would be a guaranteed bounce guaranteed.

I'll. Tell you right now: it's a guaranteed bounce, not not, if maybe it does. No, it will right. Market goes to here it will bounce okay.

So that is today's analysis, for you guys, i hope you enjoy and i'll catch you guys on the next one.