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Hey everyone meet kevin here. The market is a complete disaster, the nasdaq's basically down five percent. The dow is down over a thousand points, everything's going nuts. Why well a you've got europe which we talked about this morning.
The bank of england recessionary fears. The recession will come all this kind of nonsense right, but in the united states you've got this productivity report, and so even though i reported on that this morning, i went through the details because i'm like wait a minute. This just doesn't make sense. Why are we so concerned about this stupid productivity report in the united states, and then i got to thinking to myself a little bit wait a minute.
Maybe we shouldn't be. Maybe i'm missing something but take a look at this okay. This is very interesting, and no, it's not the fact that there's an expiring coupon code for may 16th for the programs of building your wealth linked down below and having that long-term perspective, like what you're about to learn, take a look at this okay, so we're gon Na draw this together so wait a frickin minute here, a productivity report. Much like a gdp report is a quarterly report and what's fascinating about this quarterly report is that january february and march together, minus the holidays that we had had 62 working days, but something that the report spent absolutely zero time talking about was the fact that a Lot of people took one to two weeks off in january and early february because of omicron.
Now we know omicron, oh i roll or whatever, and some people like. Oh, i could get my work done anyway, but wait a second if you're producing, like, like, let's say, you're a salesperson, you're knocking on doors or you're, creating something at a business like working on uh. You know, selling inventory or whatever, because you're a wholesale managing distributor. A distributor or whatever it's hard to catch up on that work like you, fall behind and stuff just falls out of the quarter.
Everything kind of gets kicked down the road, so productivity can go down when people miss work. You know some people think i i'll catch up on catch up. We generally don't especially when you're out a week or two like it's one thing, if you're out a day, but if you're out a week or two that's a lot, let's just say the average worker. When we don't know this, they don't give us these stats.
Of course, but let's say the average worker was out five days folks, that is an eight percent decline in productivity simply because the average worker was out five working days in q1, and so what's really fascinating about this report. Uh - and we talked about this this morning in the course member live stream and when we brainstorm on this together, in addition to our peg spreadsheet, that we're working on, but this was really fascinating because we're brainstorming about this when i first got this report and heard This is the worst decline in productivity since 1947. I'm like oh my gosh. This is sending a signal that employees just suck that they're not that they're not working hard right now right, but then i'm like what happened in q1, ah well, duh, omicron and supply chain issues. Now, fascinatingly, though i did ask myself, is this supply related and down here we see manufacturing sector label. Labor productivity in the united states was actually up 0.7 percent, so it wasn't manufacturing that hurt us. It was non-farm business that basically represents 75 of the commerce that we transact in the united states. Now it doesn't track the supply chain issues from china.
So, for example, if we have supply chain issues from china that could show up in non-farm business, because people aren't able to let's say, sell wholesale goods because they're stuck in china, so the supply chain issues will represent in non-farm business. Even though our manufacturing sector grew in productivity, so now we get a couple things like we want to put this together, so we have omicron. Then we have china and then we have the highest cpi. Pretty much.
We're expecting, hopefully, is a peak in march uh, and this high cpi in march affects productivity. Take a look at this okay. This is pretty ridiculous. You jump over here.
They say this is a this is when we look at this uh, a real output right here. Labor productivity, negative 7.7 percent right and then the per unit cost of labor went up over 11. Well, what is productivity productivity is the relationship between real output and the time involved to make that real output, but real output is actually an inflation adjusted number. So that means you're going to get a high number in a high number of basically cost, which means lower productivity in q1 because of inflation.
So personally, i hate to say it, but i think that when we combine the productivity drop of omicron, the supply chain drop of china and already very high prices, which are then reflected in a decline of real output, what do you get? Well, you get a recipe for a massive drop in productivity, even if workers are actually working harder and better, and so that's why i think this report is not necessarily a sign that things are getting worse. It's a dated report. It's a lagging indicator. If inflation peaked in march guess what happens potentially in q2 productivity skyrockets, it's just my thought: i'm not trying to be like the perma bull here or whatever.
But when i looked at the details of this report, let's just say i got a lot less nervous. It doesn't change the fact the market's selling off today, but that's the way the market works. All right folks see you in the next one bye.
The numbers reflect all the people working from home not being contributing members to society it’s not real work
I saw this a mile away. That is why I’m still on the sidelines before buying back in.
Take a look at the previous year or 2 productivity quarters. Delta, Roni all that bs
I just kinda gotta laugh at some of the prices I’m seeing. I mean, I’m buying companies that are growing 50% or more YOY with P/E’s of fucking 10, 8, 5.9…. Who the fuck is selling at these prices?!
Having expiring coupon codes every other day gives me no urge for using a coupon code.
I work from home and had COVID recently… I definitely couldn't work, let alone do anything lol
The top is the only thing thriving, everyone has been left in the cold since BEFORE covid
This is why people should take no notice of you being bullish after another bear market rally, you just made lots of people lose money
Also I’m in tech sales and while we work very hard; we can’t sell what’s not available. The chip shortage is still a major issue. How am I supposed to sell devices that aren’t going to exist until another year?
We all know the market is run by algorithmic computers. Since the market is run by computers most of the movements (either up or down) are controlled by the outcomes of each quarter report and executed by the algos. This sucks! As Kevin said in this video there were not many bad reasons throughout this quarter report. However, the sucky thing is even though the report was not bad, algos make the decisions in this case bad or to the downside. As a result everyone gets cremed. Too much manipulation…
I’m in sales. I had to take two weeks off in Jan. Omicron made me so sick.
It took me 30 days. (I have an autoimmune issue)
Don't forget bonuses.. I got a fat bonus in Feb, so I took 2 weeks off in March/April.
There is also job rotation going on which will reduce productivity. You don’t rotate your jobs quarterly so once your switch job then you are there for at least 1-2 years.
Its alright the makret can crash so hard I can care less as long as we have Kevin
The trend of 2022 is more bad news every week and Kevin explaining why the latest bad news is transitory. Eventually we'll hit rock bottom and the only direction will be up.
If Q1 productivity hit record lows because of Omicron, China lockdowns and inflation, then why didn’t productivity bottom (or hit lows of some sort) in Q4 2021? Delta, lockdowns all over the world, and high inflation.
Also, the thesis you presented in this video wasn’t originally yours. A member in the livestream brought it up and you thought it was a good point. Maybe give him some credit?
It’s crashing because it’s been blown into a bubble or well over a decade.
Thanks a lot for sharing ur thoughts in these tough times. U r my guru. Knowledge is the best tool to dispel fear.
It seems often times there are technical price reasons for moves and you try to justify the move with some event, when really it could have been easily predicted by just looking at the price chart.
Commodities are holding price! Inflation is still a crazy! Oil still has on more huge run in it! It’s killing the consumer Kevin! Gas prices are gonna kill the consumer. This is the last good quarter for earnings.
Kevin yesterday: this is good, might be the bottom
Kevin today: market crashing sell everything 🤣🤣
Bro, I think you may need to address your QQQ 0% fib line was broke today. Today's low was $311.50
Ooooorrrrrrr, Powell was not Dovish at all, said that he will Hike even if it would cause a recession, and pretty much said a soft landing is challenging (preparing the people for a hard landing by saying such) ? Kevin! Stop the delusion !
Big money is probably just trying to find a reason to sell in May and go away