What's going on guys welcome back to the channel happy monday to you guys we have more earnings coming out. That will be important for the market. We have a lot of announcements coming out this week, um interest rate discussions, so on so forth. So a couple catalyst news drops if you may will be hitting the market this week.

Markets are in a downtrend on longer time frames shorter time frames. So with that being said, my expectation is we'll continue to see the markets go. Lower. We've been talking about a price of 364 dollars in the s p 500 for quite some time, probably like january february area.

So in my opinion, we'll eventually get that price timeline, as always the unknown but yeah, it's my expectation, we'll see 364 on the market. So a little more context on that. It's my belief that if the markets drop out to 364, which would be from here to here, we would end up having a dead cat bounce there right. So, in my opinion, in the event like next week, we see the prices at 364..

I think i'd be long, biased at that price. Um, so we'll see what all happens all said and done, but for the time being, this is the way the market looks uh. As it stands as a deviation yeah so right now, i'm running a standard deviation system. So the way that this would read is this is the mean we've come from the mean we've dropped below the negative one: we've dropped below the negative two, the next destination down.

Would be the negative three, so let's say today breaks out downwards um we would expect we see prices of 404 to 399, probably somewhere in that area. Now i want everybody to know exactly why the market bounced here last time. So what we're going to do is so let me rephrase i want to make sure everybody's clear on why the market decided to bounce in this area the last time. Okay.

So when we flip this to a standard error calculation, you will see the last time the market got in this area. We were trading at negative 4, negative 3 negative 3 on standard error. So this is why the market bounced here. That's why the market bounced! Here.

That's why the market bounced here all right now when we go across the reason the market is bouncing here is because these buyers think that this is support because it bounced there in the past. Meanwhile, most of the people buying this dip have no idea that the reason it bounced here was because we were trading at negative three and negative four, previously, okay. So, if the reason the market bounced here here and here is because of negative four and negative threes, that means that going forward. We would want to touch that level.

Those blue levels for a bounce theoretically, which those blue levels currently are down here. Okay, they're not right here, all right so um. That being said, i'm kind of optimistic we're gon na take out this low, we'll see if it happens, um but bottom line. We are back at the lows.

The reason the lows bounce is because of statistical reasons. Currently, there is room from where we're at, which is like 411 412 down to the price of 408.50 and 405 before we actually get into the negative 3 zone. So to me it seems like we could still see this market fall out a little bit down to those standard error levels and then maybe the standard deviation levels which should be, i think, slightly further down so regardless you know it's my belief that we take out This low, which we're below that one and we take out this low at 410., you take those out. The market will just magnet down to the next statistical levels, all right, and then there is a side immediate says this time, we're actually going to break uh.

The blue levels, because the blue levels held back here so now that we're actually below this price point. It's almost like those blue levels broken away. So you know the the thing here is um, i'm trying to explain it's the best way. I can all right.

So the reasoning i would have for these levels actually breaking this time is because the reason we bounced was the blue all right. So all that volume that bought around the blue should be pretty much in this area right there, okay! So when you get below that enough, all these people that bought this dip will no longer have a reason to hold potentially and they'll start to sell and their selling pressure will start about here. Instead of people buying there. That makes sense right so many times we can view these blue levels as a zone to buy in which you can see it was clearly, but all this volume that bought here, if it gets taken out, will then become selling pressure, so instead of people buying here At the blue level, you would essentially have selling pressure at the blue level based on the way the market has been structured from the past.

So i'm optimistic we'll continue to see prices going lower. There's a lot of talks that we're going to be waiting. You know, maybe a couple days out of this week to see how some of these earnings go, how the fomc goes, how the interest rate talk goes and so on and so forth. So yeah there's not really anything bullish about the market.

If you ask me, i mean war in ukraine, crisis crisis that pandemic this maybe out of the pandemic, maybe not out of the pandemic. I don't know i'm still wearing six masks a day. I feel great um earnings things are going down bitcoins going down. There isn't just a hole, there's just there's, really nothing bullish.

If you ask me so we'll see how things shape up it's my expectation, we're gon na be seeing uh the markets going going lower. So, to get a more detailed look at this, i'm not running as many levels as i typically would, but to get a more detailed look at this um. Your nearest momentum shift price point today is the pre-market high of the spy. That is exactly where you'd be focusing on for a bullish momentum shift, which i don't really think we're gon na get um it's my expectation, we'll keep selling down lower into these blues 408.

405S. Arguably 400s. You know so be it even all the way down to 364 at some point all right, so today, momentum shift back up would be 414.71 spy. All right.

Looking at the qs, the qs, pretty much same thing. The pre-market high is defined by statistical levels, so you'd be looking for momentum shifts to take place over the pre-market high um. I don't really think that's going to happen. I think we're going to keep selling down, maybe towards 310 here on the nasdaq and then arguably down to the 298's 293s 290s etcetera, etcetera, um.

So so yeah i mean that's, that's that's pretty much. It um, i think we're just going lower. So with that being said, i will catch you guys on the next video everybody take care.