Well, welcome back to another market: open live stream. We have a little bit of a problem a little bit of a problem because there's some bad stuff that happened this morning and i'm going to talk about it. Well, obviously, bad, okay, so uh this morning, the uh eci. This is a a very expected uh or uh anticipated report from the federal reserve.

It's not one that we talk about so much uh, sort of catalyst wise generally uh in terms of the market, because usually this isn't a problem, uh and uh. The eci gives the federal reserve more sort of ammunition and concern in terms of hiking rates right anyway. Uh, the eci is also something that uh can sometimes create concerns of a wage price spiral. Remember that the wage price spiral is uh, something that we were concerned about having in a january uh very concerned about having january.

In fact, that was one of the reasons that that i'm, like oh we've, got some serious issues here. Uh the eci was not the issue. In january. In january, we actually had wages rising at a month-over-month rate that was outpacing inflation.

Now that ended up getting revised away in february, so we didn't actually have that problem, which was very interesting but anyway now we have something else that was through the employment report. Now we have something else: uh and that's the employment cost index and uh. What it says here today is that the eci has jumped by the most on record ever at the start of this year, heightening concerns about persistent inflation. The eci advanced 1.4 in the first quarter, uh 1.4 times 4.

- i said - be annualized about 5.6. According to the labor department, figures released friday, uh that followed a one percent advance in the final months of 2021 and what's interesting about the final months of 2021, is the samba is when the fed decided to kind of uh flip on us right uh. I guess that makes uh the coupon code back to the moon, maybe something a little bit. That's gon na get delayed a little bit, it's still down there, so we still still want to go back to the moon.

You know these earnings are coming in not so darn terrible, although apple's guide yesterday was uh was was not as uh exciting as their earnings were. Uh q3 guide concerns on china and uh in uh and lockdown uh issues and supply chain issues, not great for apple. That they came out with that, but uh definitely uh a realistic, uh, guide, uh and then, of course, amazon. Complete disaster i mean when for amazon to be down 10.6 is insane.

People are now calling amazon the next netflix, it's crazy, so uh, but anyway, back to the eci a little bit the projection for the eci. Uh. The median projection was a 1.1 percent increase and uh. We ended up getting 1.4, so uh, that's quite a bit and uh.

Let's see here, uh, let's see what else we have in the report here: wages, salaries for civilian workers climbed to 4.7 from a year ago, which this is all in the eci, which is still, in my opinion, like a lagging report on on how much wages are Really going up uh because i quite frankly think wages are going up more than this, but i mean every single earnings call. Almost every single earnings call talks about how uh costs are going up, especially in compensation, for you know, employees and everything, so workers wages, yeah. Okay, see okay, but this is also interesting, but because of this report, we, even though it came in substantially higher than expected, we're still not seeing wages, go up at the pace of inflation, which uh is you know bad for employees, but also good for preventing that That wage price file so quite interesting, we'll see uh we'll see how things evolve here now the uh, the other thing to keep in mind, is uh. Yesterday we got word that uh elon musk actually filed five uh documents, suggesting that he was not suggesting telling us that he sold uh 4.4 million shares of tesla on the 26th, which was tuesday in the day after the twitter deal was announced.

Now that day, we had about an excess volume of tesla shares of about 20 million shares, 20 million shares of excess volume, and he sold four point four. That's like a you know, four to five x uh of a volume, and i think that that extra extra volume was was just literally fear that uh elon was selling which he was uh, which you know probably wasn't too difficult for uh for people to presume uh, Which honestly leads to then more selling, i mean we suspected it uh and a lot of people suspected it. So it's not like it was a big secret, i think probably uh the uh. The big blocks coming in was a little bit of a tell uh.

You know very, very large chunks of uh tesla were sold at given times you could kind of see. You know normal open here, normal volume and just all of a sudden, these, these massive sale ramps off of the opening bell, like the fact that you're having as many sales at these blocks over here uh, you know even over here after the opening bell. A little surprising you know, and then volume really chills out, so it really shows you this there's elon. I see.

I see you elon, i know you're in there, so pretty wild uh, but anyway, so obviously not not seeing uh wage price spirals huge, but uh still seeing rising wages, which uh the eci is probably one of the most closely watched indicators from the fed and this Unfortunately, not so great for the whole uh inflation debate, but who knows? Maybe this means uh now we're at peak. I don't know who knows who knows anyway, okay, so uh? This has led the 10-year to rise. Again, i i mean the 10-year is so volatile right now, it's quite crazy. We were at three percent, then we fell to 2.74 now we're at 2.91.

I don't know, i don't know about you, but it's uh. It's crazy. I also. I also talked to uh ross gerber yesterday and um.

I i if somebody can can help me figure this out in this chat. I would like to make a video on this, but this is uh. I don't know personally, i think kind of important and i'm surprised - i'm honestly shocked, nobody's talking about this, but let me put it this way when i read something in an earnings report and i'm like what the hell like, what are you doing, it doesn't make me Want to trust management that makes me concerned uh now we've touched on this before, but i just briefly want to bring it up again because now it's not it's not just me who's like what are you doing, you know even ross. Yesterday's like this.

This looks like fraud now, we're not you know trying to like disparage tdoc here right. This has nothing to do with kathy wood either. This has to do with what looks stupid. Uh like it just doesn't make sense.

Okay, look at this remember how they had a massive write down of 6.6 billion dollars, so in their earnings report, all they do is say: 6.6 billion dollar write-down impairment to goodwill. First of all, why the heck? Does the company tdock a company that has a market cap of about 5.4 billion dollars? You know. Obviously it was closer to like 10 billion dollars before here, but why do they have goodwill of 14 billion on their balance sheet? Okay, sus out of the gate, they have more goodwill on their balance sheet than their company's worth. This doesn't make sense.

You know that could be like. Oh well. You know we have good will like goodwill just so. You know, for example, is like your brand right.

Uh, like uh people, are willing to pay a premium for disney because of their impression of the brand and quality. However, when something crazy happens like the woke politic nightmare with disney disney's brand could get slightly damaged and, and that could lead to uh an impairment of goodwill well with teledoc, they don't tell you that their brand got damaged by the tune of 6.6 billion dollars. Instead, what they say right here folks, is we're taking a 6.6 billion dollar impairment. The goodwill impairment is triggered by a decline in the teledoc share price, and this is like wait.

A minute. Wait, wait, wait. The share price has nothing to do with the consumers expectations. Like the consumer's impression of your product, they're literally totally separate things, and besides, the share price is related to how much consumers are actually using your product right.

So if anything, the consumer like using your product is already built in so the share price should have nothing to do with goodwill. The share price has to do with your brand and the fact that they say well. Our share price went down and now we're taking a 6.6 billion dollar write-off. Not only did our share price go down, but you know things have gotten a little harder in the market like people are using higher discount rates and we're decreasing more market multiples for peer groups of other relevant.

You know healthcare, companies and uh and we think we're going to have lower cash flows, so we're going to reduce our goodwill. None of that has anything to do with goodwill. This is like it smells really fishy. Really fishy, like goodwill is, is it no? It has nothing to do with your stock price, like a consumer who goes to disney disney, doesn't say i like freaking.

You know i like mickey mouse because uh because the stock price is higher like maybe maybe we do with stock investors, but you don't get you. Don't get like half your company's value and goodwill because of the stock price, it doesn't make sense so, and that is all they said about it. They did not take a single analyst question on it. They did not explain it in the 8k filing and they did not explain it.

Uh in their earnings call at any point. They just took the 6.6 billion dollar write-off and walked away, and what did kathy would do she bought 20, more million dollars of t-doc i'd? Really like to know what the hell is happening here, because it just seems like fraud, that's it! That's it! That's all! I got i'm sorry, it's just it just pisses me off. It just doesn't make sense uh like don't, don't do shady anyway. Anyway.

Oh another thing: that's going on which i thought was kind of interesting, is hershey's and, and i i've got like probably 10 uh uh 10 earnings calls to report on in a few hours here, uh that i've been going through, but this was crazy. One of the uh one of the earnings calls uh. We find out that hershey is actually uh, suggesting that what people are doing is they're going to the gas station more because they're not filling up their tank all the way, because gas has gotten so expensive. So they're half filling up their car tanks and every time they go fill up their car tank they're still going inside the store to buy a freaking chocolate bar.

So hershey's like this is great. People are going to gas stations more and buying more chocolate, because gas prices are up. People are going to gas stations more, not because, like they're doing the rational thing, which would be drive less they're just going to put less gas in their car, i don't get it. I really don't get it.

I really don't get it. I really don't get it but uh then again, you know i'm also in a vastly different financial position. So i don't know maybe it's like hey. I got 50 bucks budgeted for gas this week.

That's all i got, but i'm still getting my candy bar gosh. All right, well anyway, it sounds like they need to take the stocks of psychology of money course link down below, because that is some that is some broken psych um. I will say, though, uh tdoc, along with a lot of other companies, uh, pinterest and so on and so forth. A lot of companies talking about how much advertising spend is actually going.

What have we been talking about on this channel for a while? I think that advertising spend is gon na go up january. Feb. We're good for advertising march was great for advertising very interesting. Well, you know, maybe maybe if it was like this acquisition of this lavingo or whatever loving whatever company.

Here. As someone suggesting you watch the discussion on this, you know what what's happening here is we're making the assumption that it's levingo now it's okay to try to read between the lines right, but why then, in their report, are they literally telling us? Oh no! It's because our share price went down. What do you talk? That's double dipping! That's double dipping! No shady! Anyway, uh people got ta, eat people, don't got ta eat, candy bars, dude all right. Here we go uh, but they keep making it easy and easy.

Now they have a lot of big blood. Access to crypto moving into crypto is very smart, but i i just don't see anything here not until the clients figure out the way the market really works. It's really a shame. Well, i want to get you in a second here's, the here's, the opening bell and at the big board today advisor shares are celebrating the recent listing of the drone technology atf at the nasdaq celebrating its ipo polite bio, targeting age related uav drone targeting etf man, People are coming up with all sorts of crazy stuff.

Now, my goodness all right, let's see here uh all right now. Well, what do we got here? Almost eighty dollar? That's the tell what do we get? I don't know i don't understand what you mean with eighty dollars here. So oh, oh you're, talking about web okay, yeah, um kevin, says kevin williams says you do that because it's only a matter of time before the gas comes back down i mean. Are you driving a lot or you drive? Rarely i mean it's one thing: if you rarely drive and you're like yeah, i just put a little bit in gas station lines have gotten longer, because people are going more often yeah.

You can buy candy. If you fill the tank up all the way people got, ta eat kevin, come on man, people got, people got eat, uh, yeah, yeah, all right, well, yeah amazon. At a 52-week low. We should.

We should create a goodwill, etf and just rugble. It already exists, uh. The ticker symbol is n, f, t, oh sorry, being a butt. It's not wrong.

It's literally not wrong, um, but anyway, so amazon down eleven point: five, seven percent, robin hood, dropping another six percent, toast ghost! Oh my gosh. I did a video on toast talking about how 55 was insane. People got really mad at me, they're, like whatever kevin i'm dca and toast toast. Is god dude, it's 19 etsy.

I was really proud buying etsy at seventy dollars like in 2020. You know, and then i was really happy when it went over two hundred dollars. I mean it actually went quite a bit over 200. I ended up selling it at, like, i don't know 180 or 190 or something like that, so it was great.

But now it's 96. she's like what the my gosh things have changed. Look at this shopify. I remember when shopify was fifteen hundred dollars.

It's 429 dollars now this is just insane uh. It's also quite depressing: matterport: 2.36 uh, ebay, salada right back under 100., oh yeah yeah, oh uh. There was also another there's another update on incomes. I wanted to talk about.

Let's do that really quick! So here's a qqq for you today, oh tesla's, up about three percent, all right, so five key takeaways from the us first quarter g p. Well, we talked about that, but i wanted to find the savings rate. Oh yeah, there we go. The personal savings rate also decline a sign of how inflation is biting into spending now.

Obviously, this is all like past data, but one of the things to keep in mind is is uh. We do expect that personal savings rates would go down. That is happening along expectations. However, banks still expect that individual bank balances are actually going to go up rather than down this year, which is quite interesting, because that really implies that you know, even though the savings rate might be going down, it's still higher than what it previously was.

All right. Cool uh all right, so what else we have here? Let's see! Ah, yes, uh! You know we got some big catalysts coming up, and this is also something to pay attention to next week. We have lots of things well. First of all, we get the jobs report on may 6th.

We have the fomc meeting on may 4th. We have victory day on may 9th and then it i can't remember now: it's either the 12th or the 13th for cpi. So the next two weeks are probably going to be quite insane, dare i say um yeah uh looking at this here we have the april cpi data. Oh it's actually may 11th.

Okay. So so i would write that down. May 11th cpi may 9th victory day when putin is suggested to declare basically victory over some parts of ukraine and and some people are hoping that, even though things might get worse before that they get better by the time that happens. Fomc meeting next wednesday, it's tuesday and wednesday, obviously we'll have the report to cover on wednesday.

So we'll get to do a lot of talking about that one whoo and uh, and then the jobs report next week, friday, so so catalyst galore galore, to be very interesting. Uh then, we have tesla up four percent: a firm okay, what's happening right now. Imo imho is you've, got a lot of retail, possibly institutions coming in and basically trying to swoop up some tesla some la tessa because uh they realize that elon musk's buying pressure or i'm sorry selling pressure is gone. Great.

Imagine if elon musk started doing stock buybacks and he's like hey guys, i'm making so much money on twitter that i'm going to start buying tesla shares. Imagine all right. China has been a seller of u.s treasuries in q1 and will reduce selling. We estimate that china was selling united states treasuries because reserve well as a result of uh seeing uh the people's bank of china, foreign exchange reserves decline.

Let's try to like get away from zadala. Then we've got what else here: yeah somebody uh. Somebody actually super chatted and i didn't respond to it. Sorry, but uh there was a there's talk about uh, taking a peek at what's going on in, like japan and uh the foreign exchange market.

There's a note here on this and uh: there's there's a lot that's going on here, but basically there's a suggestion that japanese officials have backed themselves into a corner and macro funds are trying to break the bank of trent of japan, uh, which uh, which you know Last time we've seen people try to break banks was like in the 70s when we left the gold standard and uh, and and this could create buying pressure actually in japan for treasuries they're, suggesting which uh the more people buy. Those the price goes up. Yield goes down should be very interesting, so it's something to pay attention to, but i don't know how big of a catalyst is this year for us right now, but it is something to pay attention to so then we've got yeah. Let's look at curves as well.

The uh break-even inflation numbers have been going up over the last few days and they have not gone up as much as we've seen them go up in uh the beginning of april. Actually, even mid-march mid-march, the beginning of april, the five-year break-even rate like skyrocketed, we were at some of the highest levels for the five-year break, even and a lot of folks believe that that was also one of the contributors to the federal reserve. Deciding that's it. We're basically gon na say we're gon na go 50 here, because we have the skyrocketing breakeven inflation rate uh, which we generally look at the five year for yeah the five years and uh.

If that starts going up again before the fed meeting, it's not a good thing. You know that's a problem uh, so we'll see elon musk, not about money and twitter. Well, look we all know that's what he said. I've echoed him saying that before, but let's be real, if he makes lots of money in twitter, he could buy more tesla.

He won't he'll go buy. Another company he'll buy coca-cola uh anyway, so uh, okay, yeah uh, tesla kind of volatile here sitting around that 38.2 line. Let's go ahead and get the let's get a look at the 10-2 here, er or i'll, give you a readout of the 10-2 and then we'll also take a look at that five-year because that it's gon na be not so great for the fed's meeting next week. If this this keeps worsening so the 10-2 kind of flattening again, it's only at 18 in terms of uh basis points right now, so that's not great uh and then the five year yeah it's up again today, it's just not great uh i'll.

Give you a quick little here. Let me air drop the screenshot to myself, so you can see it, but that way you can see what i'm talking about to catch you up with this all right. Here you go on screen now, it's your five even break! Even inflation right and you can see we we have these like. We have these odd little spikes here in april, but we have that that giant, persistent run-up that uh rising wedge almost right in march and um.

It was nice when it came down. It was also nice when, just like a week ago, we were falling below any level of march and april. You know, but now we're popping back up a little bit so uh, not not so ideal. Divided dippers are out of money on tesla.

They are losing the fight against the other sellers. Uh barcoding here on qqq, might be setting up for a sideways day, see some big movers and see what else some of the suits are saying: amazon, uh still sitting at about 11 percent to the downside, dd api up 10 jd lee auto wow dwack xp neo. What's with all the chinese companies uh being up today, i also just can't believe that neo's at 17, but all right, uh, cheesecake factory, still under 40. - let's listen to jimmy bo for a moment, while i uh see what the other suits are saying, and maybe that's.

Okay, maybe that's okay, you mean the heat's off, because elon has arrived into the social media world. Well, also the heat's off, because zuckenberger said you know what i'm i'm going to do. The metaverse and what we're going to do. First is teach uh, i'm going to use the instagram platform to be able to help small business and we're going to give small business money.

I mean they've pivoted, they've pivoted. To i mean, and by the way vlad tanf should listen too, when you're just a technologist. You must pivot to be more than that. These days, tim cook, obviously, is the person who you most emulate.

Now tim cook is not going to like the fact that i said that zuckerberg in the same line - i don't mean to because cook's here but mark zuckerberg is trying and by the way tick tock is chinese and one day that's gon na matter. If this cold war gets a little hot, a little worse, look if you won't give yourself people your backseat american vaccine, because they're it's american you'd rather have people starve and stay on lockdown. How much do they hate us uh? Well, and to what degree does the populace revolt? The people don't hate us. The people are fabulous.

Oh meantime, guys uh we're watching the market down about a hundred. Despite all the news. I i think it's quite interesting. This uh using the metaverse for uh education uh, but i also think it's a hilarious comment to say: vlad should listen.

You know, uh ross gerber made this uh interesting point that robin hood, you know kind of got their whole platform excited about options and uh. Basically, screwed everyone, because options are so dangerous. I always say like they should be like less than one two percent of your portfolio, uh and uh yeah now you've got uh. Now you've got some uh some problems over at robin hood layoffs, huge miss on numbers.

It's like a 50 mil revenue loss kind of interesting point. So when jim cramer here says hey, they got ta innovate a little bit to get some people back. It's kind of not wrong. All right see what the other suits are saying.

While the qqq drops a little bit, tech stocks falling and the sustained tech drop may be linked to china's covet trajectory apple among leading decliners marked an initial bullishness, but when the company warned about expensive supply chain issues due to china's lockdowns, the shares went down. The warning was keeping with a host of other hits to company profits due to china's zero covet. Zero approach from semiconductor firms to automakers to caterpillar, yet covet induced problems will probably wane as the disease does. You know i read the caterpillar earnings report.

I did not know that they have already sold 500 self-driving fully autonomous mining trucks like hauling trucks, you know, dump trucks, basically giant, dump trucks uh, and you know i mean like what are you gon na screw up? If your dump truck accidentally runs over a rock, you know like you're, obviously your risk is is substantially different than uh than tesla full self-driving, where they're like people in other cars but uh. I thought that was really cool. I didn't know. Caterpillar had self-driving dump trucks.

Now i do i mean i know john deere's trying to get into it as well, but i don't actually think they've sold many functional versions yet so we'll see we'll see it's when the dump truck accidentally runs over the car. Well, yeah someone says i used to change the tires on those. Why aren't those tires like you know taller than us? I think those things are like massive uh all right. So, let's see here u.s data bad on inflation, good on consumption.

Arguably, the most important data point in today's personal income and outlays print was the employment cost index whopping 1.4. We talked that talked about that uh that pretty much seals the faith that the fed will raise 50 basis points next week and adds the likelihood of another jump going forward. Markets have been nervous about decelerating economic and earnings growth due to the shock and fall of real gdp and disappearing earnings. But inflation is more important to the fed's fun reaction function.

The eci will exacerbate the fed concerns that inflation will become embedded and force it to react aggressively front end treasury curves sold off on the news, particularly the two to three years ooh. What's the breaking news hq with breaking news, our apo read on chicago pmi expected to be out around 62.. It ends up a big miss at 56.4. That's the lightest since 56.3 in february of this year, and that number in february was the lightest since august of 2020.

wow. Did you see all the numbers this morning? Income about is expected, but spending double what's expected at a time where inflation's way more than expected, and all the fed's personal favorites on inflation were hot hot hot buckle up, interest rates are going up, twos and threes are on pace for cycle; high yield closes, fives Need to get above 298. sevens need to get above 298.. Tens above 294 and 30 is above 3 to accomplish that, but they're getting very close, keep tuned to the markets and stay tuned to squawk on the street, because it'll return and this guy's funny he's.

Like he's been a bear and he's not been wrong, you know uh, but it's it's always really entertaining it's like big, miss all the fans, favorites they're, gon na hike on you yeah. I mean he's not wrong like that's it's what's so confusing is like well we're. Looking at earnings like daily and we're just like what everybody's spending like mad, every piece of data is coming out. People are spending like crazy, but the markets are trading, fed, fear, fed fund, you know uh, just like they say, don't fight the fed.

Okay, crazy, quick quote, says transitory worked out. Well, don't worry. The recession will be transitory six feet for those uh wheels. That's crazy! I can confirm trading options with 100 of portfolio bad idea.

Oh god uh. Yes, yes, the thing is people on average losing large percentages of their portfolios on options will either leave or run low on money. Yeah totally. You agree.

I only buy long term now, so my transaction volume is basically drop dead. Yeah, that's the other thing i mean. If you're a if you're a buying hodler, you know how are you making money for the platform you're? Not really, but that's not your job. Imagine mining equipment that goes into the mind and returns with bucket loads of lithium and the whole process is automated uh.

Well, that will happen in the future um, but uh yeah. That's so far from that today. Soon, though, i don't think it'll take long commodities will get real, automated all right, so uh musk's tesla stock sales top 8 billion. Oh, my gosh musk disclosed an additional 4.5 billion worth of tesla stock in new regulatory filings.

Today, uh following yesterday, bringing his total to 8.5 billion in the wake of his deal to buy twitter tesla's chief executive officer offloaded more than 5 million shares on april 28th. Yesterday, that's when we went down to like 8 20. and that followed disclosures late thursday of 4.4 million musk is now disposed of more than 24 billion worth of stock. Over the last six months, wow world's wealthiest man has reached an agreement on april 25th to acquire twitter, yup yup but hey.

He said no further plans to sell tesla, so we'll see temporary discount opportunity. You know it kind of does somewhat at least feel like he's. Almost trying to like look out for the consumer uh in that he's like uh, you know: hey uh yeah, i just dumped on you but uh. I'm done you know the heads up is kind of like you can buy now: here's amazon down 12.3 percent.

That's insane! Man, hey twitter's up uh to 0.28 or uh to 49, 24. apple actually went green. You know, apple was red in the am here and actually went. Green affirms up a bit trade desk.

Is that look at that? Even t-doc is up a little bit. Today, i mean it must be a better day if t-doc is up after that insanity, crazy yeah. So what else, let's see see what else the suits are saying suits, usually always have something tell us all right, so uh putin, gasper, rupers, gambit uh. Let's see kathy woods, flagships set for worst ever month with 26 tumble in april wow ouch us seeks urgent data on covet relapses after pfizer drug pacslovid.

Oh great, are you serious us government researchers are planning studies of how often and why coronavirus levels rebound in some covet patients who have completed a five-day course of the treatment of pax love it. This is supposed to be that thing you take when you're not vaccinated or like your vaccine's, worn off or whatever or just not working, and it's like you're you're gon na have a bad time in the hospital. So they give you pax, loving, but apparently people now taking pax love. It are relapsing and they're just getting covered or they're falling sick.

After this little is known about the rebound cases, including how frequently they occur, and whether the highly transmissible omicron variant played a role while there's no proof that it's caused by the drug doctors say they need more information about what action to take when the virus surges. In someone who's just been treated, oh my gosh man like it just this is why man betting on pharmaceuticals just makes me so like depressed, and i don't like that. I don't because i just know that i don't know anything about pharmaceuticals, so i'm just like. I just won't touch them.

I i can't i just can't do it. I can't bring myself to it because it's like you know, oh the vaccine, yeah, it's gon na cure everyone. Don't you remember like when the pandemic struck in march of 2020 everybody's like damn. I hope they come out with a vaccine soon, right, like everybody, wanted the vaccine in march of 2020, because we thought we were all gon na die uh.

You know, obviously, a year later, when the vaccine's like out and getting distributed everybody's like no my choice, my body, my choice, which is fine. You know i mean covet, obviously wasn't. As i mean it was terrible, but it wasn't like it wasn't like a plague where it's like you had a 50 chance of dying or something like that right. It's like one percent, it's still bad, because a lot of people still gon na die, but but anyway uh you know so, but then we find out what the vaccines aren't.

Actually that effective, you got. Ta get boosters like every six months and then we find - and even at that, it's not even that effective uh and now we're finding out that pax loved the thing for the unvaccinated folks who are like, please don't let me die. Uh are taking yours, like you're you're, still gon na get hit. It's like wow wow, just okay, all right, just wow! That's all that's all! This is terrible again.

Another reason why i'm just not going to invest in pharma. That's all um like i'll go, buy more tesla, oh dear, hmm, all right what else, but camila harris is like four doses of the vaccine. Didn't she just get coven? Oh yeah. You said that you wrote that you actually wrote that yeah.

There was an article yesterday when i was two days ago. I was reading it. I was flipping through the newspaper and i'm like kamala harris gets covered and i'm like. Are we still reporting this crap? Like? Is that still new? I mean, i guess it is all right.

So, let's see here now so the big news today is that eci and the pce numbers both are bad for the fed uh. Oh here's an interesting one. What does a nimble fed mean here's here's! This is a suit! Writing for you, okay, oh the fed's, just being nimble! Everybody! Don't worry, don't worry, they're, just being nimble in the aftermath of the huge print of the employment cost index. This morning the m live team is debating exactly what it means for the fed to be nimble.

Do you imagine it's like all right? Everybody get your suit on we're gon na we're gon na debate what this means. Oh, this is a surprise. Not nimble means an accelerated hiking timetable until there's an indication that economic growth is severely impacted. Duh, like y'all, had to have a suit meeting for that.

You know how to that. That's what you had to have a suit meeting for to tell us. Well, it just makes it appear the fed's going to have to raise rates more duh, so dumb, that's exhausting. I can't read this crap anymore: oh my gosh qqq's recovering nicely uh qqq popping up a little bit here, uh tesla up five percent now and uh.

Look at that nice curve on tesla like to see it. I like to see it a lot. I got. I got a big debate coming up about the biggest uh.

You know my uh. Well, we got a bit it's a step, bro debate this this sunday uh live on the youtubes about tesla. I just can't believe that t-doc's actually going up. I think people are like literally like well kathy bought the dip, so we want to buy the dip.

I can't go near that company with a 10-foot pole. You realize okay, look at this and i'm i promise you i like. I i like kathy. I think there have been some faux pas uh, but uh this t-doc, one uh-uh uh-uh, okay, look: the company is worth 5.6 billion dollars.

Fact check me on that. Okay, all you have to do is type into google tdoc stock and it literally pops up. It says it right there in your face. It says: market cap 5.6 billion dollars.

Okay, so i want to know what you all think about this, but we're going to look at their balance sheet and we're going to go. That's consolidated statement of operations. Cash flow where's balance sheet here is balance sheet. Okay, so the company is worth 5.6 billion dollars right, but wait a minute.

What do we have right here? Under goodwill? Goodwill is 7.9 billion dollars, so they believe they have 7.9 billion dollars of goodwill for a company that has a market cap of 2 billion less than that like this doesn't make sense. I don't i don't know, i'm just hoping. Somebody in the comments can give me a rational explanation as to why you would buy this fraud. I mean this this teledoc company anyway uh.

Is this a dead cat um? Well, here's the thing regarding this dead cat bounce talk. We need bad news, really bad news to be at zero percent, we're zero percent. Now right, i said yesterday that i believe that this the opportunity to buy is now and that's because it's we're at the zero percent on the phoebe's. The times we've gone to zero percent was massive, fed, fear and war.

Why would you not buy if you're going to buy stuff? Why would you not buy while you're at the zero 50s? The only reason you wouldn't buy at the zero phibi's is that you literally think things are so bad that we are going to fall below the feb 24 bounce, the march 8th bounce, the march 14th bounce and the 427 bounce. You literally think things are gon na, be so bad that we're gon na get news. That brings us past that zero, so like if you're gon na be one of those people when this stock market goes back to 50 and you're like kevin. Should i go all in now? No, you should not go all in when we're at the 50 line.

You should go all in at the zero percent line, not financial advice, university of michigan consumer sentiment index just came in consumer sentiment, came in at 65.2 versus the 65.7 expected slight miss current conditions coming in at 69.4, that's a slight beat over 68.1 consumer and soon We need inflation expectations as well. I imagine these will come through er, don't have them yet anyway. I i. I don't know that the market really is reacting to that at all right now it tests us off like it likes percent.

Oh man, i mean coffeezilla video dude, i love coffee, stuff uh. It was a really nice guy. You know when i was having a hard day on tuesday. He texted me checked in so that's that's! That's how you know who the good people are shout out to him and graham and sarah dietchy shout out to the good people of the world.

Uh yeah! That's a good question. You know the the fibs um personally, this uh this market uh, unlike what we had last year for the uh indices, see last year, fibonaccis didn't matter, because this, the nasdaq and the spy were going up like look okay, this was what this is. What we paid attention to last year, it's the lines, are literally still there. Folks, like, i don't take them away.

You know i leave my lines. It's like it's like my notes from last year. Okay, look. It's stupid proof.

We were bouncing around between those lines, we're just like a rising set of making money buying a stupid index fund. That's that's what we were in 2021.. I kid you not like the beginning of 2021 is right. You know here, and you know we bounce off the top uh we bounce off the low - and i know they're fibs here right now, but that's because of the current fibs right bounce off the top bounce off the bottom.

Try to get to this this we. I also had this sort of uh intermediary rising line here, uh rising trend line. Here we bounce off that we bounce off the bottom. We bounce off that rising intermediary line.

Again we go back to uh. We slightly break above can't hold it. Where do we go? We go right back to the bottom line. Then we go to the top line bounce off that then we go to the top line, bounce off that and then, where do we go? We bounce off that bottom line again, which i remember when we were at this bottom line here at the beginning of 2022 and everybody's, like oh, my gosh.

This is it like we're just we're just continuing on this channel and then when we broke that it's like. Oh crap, like wait, a minute wait a minute. This is a problem. Oh and look.

This is january 18th and uh 21st. These days right here when we broke that trend line, i'm like oh, what's going on like that's that's when i'm like. Oh, my gosh wage price spiral, uh consumers gon na stop spending. This is a disaster, uh right and so i sold and - and i know that seems crazy, but when we broke that i'm like this is terrible.

So i sold - and i bought back in after this triple bounce right here, which i said when i sold uh over here uh. I said that i would probably buy back in entirely before march 15th, when i saw this triple bounce literally before march 15th, and i'm like that's all i need to see. I mean thanks for the question, appreciate it jr uh, but i mean like yeah yeah and now everybody's like well you're, just a trader, i'm like dude. No, i just try to lose less money in this market and it worked out.

It worked out great uh. That doesn't mean it's not painful. It's a crappy market. I mean like hey.

Look. If, if i was perfect, i would have sold over here. You know not perfect uh anyway. Is this the guy who didn't know what upstart was there's kind of two amazons right now? There's the mature e-commerce business that has very modest growth and then there's a cloud computing high margin, effort that continues to do amazingly well and then somewhere in between there's a strong advertising business.

We've now had two quarterly disclosures on that business. So there's kind of two amazons i think the cloud computing and the advertising warrant the buy, but i'm very nervous about the e-commerce business uh right um, that north american retail operating loss got people's attention, but then you're, right, aws up 37. um. Is that going to feed uh arguments for uh a a strip out of aws or are we do? Is that is that sort of? No, that's not the same guy is that guy is not the same guy as that.

Guy yeah, no he's got a different set, but he's got like the bookshelf too, and the glasses, but that guy's got more of like this. Guy's got more of like the triangle head: okay, yeah, because that was the guy who, like mega embarrassed himself when they're like oh so so what does upstart do and he's like? Because he's he's bright, he he went on cnbc. It was like the best clip ever. Maybe if i could find it i'd love to show it to you, if you don't remember it, it was the most hilarious clip ever uh.

Basically, the guy's, like oh yeah, we just invested into upstart four days ago and uh, and it's up like 25 already yeah. You know it might come down a little bit, but but we're killing it. Meanwhile he's it's at like 380 dollars a share right uh! You know upstart upstart right now is at 82 a share anyway, so i can't find it right now, but anyway they're like. Oh.

That's so great, so you know, i know what like tesla does because you're in tesla, but what does upstart do and the guy's like wha? What does upstart do yeah like like what do they do? What what product or services so you know like uh? I think i'm losing you it's the most hilarious thing ever. Oh my gosh, it's just like, like i tweeted the other day, and i really believe this. I really believe this and somebody like got mad at me for this, but i thought it was great. Where was it uh? I remember what i said, but i want to find it because i want to get it right.

I can't find it um, yeah, well, uh so anyway, so somebody's basically like. Oh, i remember what it was. It was when the tesla article came out, which i think was on the 27th, which was uh on bloomberg, and it was basically like, oh tesla's, the next stock to potentially drop 40 percent right yeah yeah. Here it is uh and and uh.

The bloomberg writer suggests that oh tesla's not diversified enough. You know 90 of their revenue comes from making cars jeez. Imagine that anyway, uh and uh, and then this person goes. You really think one article could drop the stock, seven percent and i go uh and they also in the article talked about like hey and if elon sells that's bad right.

Well, she ended up selling, obviously, and anyway, so i mean it ended. It was a good article because it was really playing on those fears like oh no, it doesn't have diversified revenues. Oh no, oh, no, elon's, gon na sell to my twitter or what? If he's distracted, right, uh and - and so i wrote in reply, i'd go you'd be surprised how impressionable these fund managers are no brains themselves, and i know that's like really offensive to like the industry and i'm sorry, but like these, the the doomberg does tell people Exactly what to think a lot, and - and so i read the stuff and - and i try my best to remember like they're - not god, you know they're here - to provide me a different perspective, but anyway, that's what i think what i'm reading okay wait! Wait because i just typed in upstart cnbc like embarrassing or fail or whatever was it cnbc upstart interview, y'all y'all haven't seen this. I can't find it.

I just get the ceo, oh, oh, i found it cnbc expert can't answer why he invested in the company. He does it's a minute long, okay, we'll end on this, because it's like this is like must-see tv. If you have not seen this, you need to just watch why those four here putting money in right now include upstart, that is one uh, tesla, mgm and aig. Why those four all of which you've bought within well, basically this week except tesla, end of last month, yeah so well up, starts up about 25, just in four days since we since we bought it, we bought it on uh about four days ago uh.

So that's actually made a nice little move in the short term, probably a little extended right now, but longer term uh that that's a that's a good looking uh name very powerful, very strong earnings. These stocks are, they do know what do they do? What uh? Well? I'm i'm sorry what kind of company is it yeah? I'm not you're you're breaking up! Oh well! I guess we've got an audio problem there mark i'm sorry i do know mgm. I do know tesla and i do know aig, but a 25 move in a week is pretty good for the company i'll start uh. Thank you mark for your time.

We'll have you back soon anyway. Dude come on man. This is like the best thing ever all right. I got ta leave it on that.

One thanks for being here, see y'all.