Hey everyone: oh my gosh uh. This is like uh flabbergasting. I don't think anybody expected this, but part one of the recession might actually be now now. This is crazy a few days ago, and i didn't believe that we were.

This was technically correct, uh, but a few days ago i made a title. I said: oh my gosh. This is the recession and the argument was like hey. You know what i think is happening is i think the market is so convinced that we're going to see a recession that the stock market is just on fire.

I mean it's: it's a devastating environment to invest in if you've invested anytime between november and now, you've probably lost money uh unless you're like perfect at trading with your entire portfolio. Now there are things you could have done to minimize loss. There are things you could do to make money to offset other losses right, but it's been a really rough time. So, a few days ago i made this argument that you know to me.

It seems like because uh the way we invest now is so heavily correlated with what the federal reserve is doing when the federal reserve is tightening it's entirely possible that we could see demand contract quite quickly. Now, that's not exactly what we saw, uh and - and so my theo theory a few days ago, was that oh well uh! You know this is really just uh, potentially going to be uh, this sort of style of uh of environment, where the stock market price is in a recession and uh, and then, when the actual recession comes uh we're actually already back in recovery mode. This frequently happens because remember recessions are backward looking. We don't actually know we're in a recession when we're in a recession.

We have to wait for gdp numbers to tell us. Oh wow, okay, we had negative gdp in one quarter and then we had negative gdp in another quarter. Oh well, technically we were in a recession in 2022.. Oh didn't even realize it.

Everybody was still spending money like crazy stock market sucked. I guess we were in a recession, you know uh and so guess what that just came out at this point. Maybe you've already heard about it anyway, uh just now, uh we had the uh gdp print come out for uh for the first quarter and uh. It declined point four percent uh, which uh, which now means that uh we are sitting at uh if you annualize that - and you do a little bit of rounding to get to point four percent, you analyze that which is multiplying by four uh you get to about A uh annualized run rate of negative 1.4 percent now uh.

This is quite interesting because consumer spending - this is all the stuff that we've been seeing with earnings. People spending money grew 0.7 in the first quarter. This is despite uh omicron uh, but you had uh uh inventories, internet and international trade fall uh. The uh we've got uh net exports contracted uh, 3.2 percent and uh inventories contracted point eight percent, like wholesale and retail inventories, uh and uh.

You have a pretty stiff comparison for uh for uh in terms of a comp from from last year. So really we're really interesting uh i mean, i have to say: there's there's definitely a shock factor uh to this, but in my opinion it's actually great news. Now i i know, that's gon na sound crazy, like why that would be great news uh, but uh. Let me first say the 10-2 yield curve inverted right, and it's like oh, my gosh, that that could signal a recession and uh.

Most of the the research has been oh well, i mean recession's, probably like more of a you know, q4 2022 thing, maybe maybe in 2023 we'll see recessionary indicators, and you know we still need another negative quarter of uh to actually be like in a recession. Right now, uh, so so no guarantees who knows the next quarter could be positive and then and then never mind that didn't work out, but uh in the event that uh we are in a recession right now well crap, then i want to be all in on Stocks now uh, that's why? Why would i? Why would i say that that we would have this paper recession, uh yeah? Actually he or stephen like like you're talking about here, so i talked about this paper recession back in january and the the thesis in i didn't think it would happen so soon, but uh. This paper recession is basically where it's like wow you're, lapping, 20. 21 comps.

You just have to be slightly negative and boom condition. One of recession here uh, and so the real concern now is is: is this going to change consumer behavior? Are we going to get you know, tucker carlson, saying oh, no, we're in recession, joe biden done it. We're in a recession you know like, and then people actually spend less money because again right now, spending grew but again sort of zooming out. If i could look at history and decide when do i want to invest in stocks, well be doing a recession like when would i want to buy the dip and go all in during a recession? When would it be the most painful time to invest in the stock market? Well during a recession, um wow wow? This is, this is really honestly quite shocking, and so i think this is one of the reasons you're seeing the the market, which is actually you know here in pre-market, quite green.

You know the nasdaq's up uh 1.62 in pre-market trading. Here. Look at this. You see this decline as the gdp print comes out, negative and everybody's like what the hell and then it's like wait a minute.

If that means we're in a recession now, maybe we should buy the dip uh wow uh, that's crazy! So if we look at the the ten two yield curve, it's steepened uh. If we look at breakevens they've, also steepened slightly uh. If we look at the bond market, it's steepened er, so the bond market we're sitting at with a 10-year 2.876. Yesterday we were yesterday the day before we were about 2.7 2.74 uh, the uh five-year break evens at about 3.34.

It's still a substantial decline from uh, where we have been so inflation expectations are still rotating down, but they've ticked up. Just briefly on this report and uh a little bit of a steepening into that of the yield curve - and it almost makes you wonder like wow - is the yield curve back at it again is the 10-2, just literally that perfect of a recession indicator uh, it's crazy! You know it's it's hard to believe that uh there could be just like one thing. That's like oh yep, that's it! It's always been right. It's like oh, my gosh.

It could literally be right again uh. It is quite a weird little predictor uh, but yeah uh. You know, historically, it's been right and so far uh we've just set the stage to be right again, that's pretty wild. But again you know what, if you know what what, if the entire year of uh 2022 is negative right and it's just like.

Well, you know gdp was slightly like. Let's say we kept going at the same speed for the rest of the year, because remember the annualized figure with one point: four percent is a multiple of four yeah. We declined it roughly about uh uh 0.4 percent, which is probably without rounding closer to like point three, eight percent, and if you multiply that by four, you get this annualized rate of 1.4, so we're going at a speed of a 1.4 decline. If we go that same speed the entire year, again, you multiply by four to get the annualized figure.

If we get that same speed the entire year, then we'll have a negative 1.4 gdp, a 1.4 gdp for the for the entire year, uh and uh consumers don't seem to give a crap now we'll see i mean like all of a sudden. Now we are uh. You know in a situation where uh well, it's it's evident that gdp is declining, uh and and then the big question becomes. Does that mean we are uh going to scare people into stopping to spend uh that that would be the biggest fear if consumers keep spending kind of like it seems like they are.

This is gon na, be a paper recession and nobody's actually gon na feel like we're going through a recession uh. You know - and this is what we talked about in january - that that uh and but i you know, i was also worried in january that people would freak out if we were in a paper recession that once this reality hits of like. Oh no we're in a paper recession. You know the consumer's not going to hear paper recession they're going to go what recession pool i better spend less.

I don't know i i i will tell you. This has been the weirdest, the weirdest set of economic data in 52 years uh and that's statistical by the way, uh bloomberg said this has been the most difficult market to time since 1970., like if you are even able to remotely time this market you're doing good, Because you've saved lots of money uh and it is, it is just shocking uh how bizarre uh and how, how like foreign all this data is, and it's all just everything's screwed up because of uh. You know this. Oh, let's print 35 of all money in circulation, not just in america but around the world.

Oh, let's um! You know over simulate. Let's uh create all this crazy inflation uh and then we continue to get catalysts to blow up the inflation right again. I i believe, the original thesis of transitory inflation - if we just had covid1, but then we got delta, which reinflated inflation great. Then we got omicron which reinflated inflation.

Then we got a war which reinflated inflation, like all of those things alone, would have increased inflation together. Like daisy chained together, you got a crap show, that's crazy uh. It is so crazy, but i'll tell you again if, if this is the recession, which is what we talked about two days ago and again, i i was saying that more like what i said two days ago was not that i think we're actually in a recession. I just want to make that clear, i'm shocked by this okay, i'm not trying to like pat myself in the back and go ah see.

I said two days ago: this is the recession. Here you go all right. No! No! I didn't. If you watch the video, if you just read the title, it's brilliant, but if you watch the video i'm like, i don't actually think we are in a recession because the consumer's still spending like crazy but uh.

I do believe that the stock market is acting as if we are in a recession right. The stock market is pricing intercession. Well, the stock market could have been right. The stock market could have been the the biggest bellwether for the recession, the biggest leading indicator of that oh damn, a recession, it's the stock market, which is usually not the case that uh like just because the stock market falls into like a bear market territory that You're in a recession, that's not generally the case uh, but wow shocked uh, just like i'm also shocked.

That tdoc, which we talked about yesterday, is down 43. It doesn't help that we didn't really get a lot of clarity on the 6.6 billion dollars of impairment adjustment, but let's just put it this way that just cost kathy woods - funds - 400, 30 million dollars - maybe even a little more - that is insane. That is absolutely insane. Uh yeah, jr or recession could absolutely last longer uh.

You know you've got like i mentioned. We don't have to have just two quarters of negative gdp uh. You know we could end up having four or six quarters of negative gdp right. That is so crazy.

Yeah. All right, so, let's take a look at uh. I want to take a look at some of these pre-market losers. That is absolutely wild uh.

You know it's also wild, because we were looking at the uh, the atlanta real. Was it real? Now gdp data uh? Let's see here from the atlanta fed uh, okay, there we go anyway uh, so the atlanta fed gdp indicator was uh that real gdp was zero percent in uh in in like february, in february and january, it was at at zero percent and we're looking at it. Like that's weird here, let me see if i can pull it up, but it's basically like a tool that tries to estimate what gdp is currently real. Now, gdp i'll show it to you or gdp.

Now uh, oh well. They just updated it to the current information. Darn it gdp now forecast no, oh well anyway. The atlanta fed had this big banner across their website that current gdp is like zero percent, and this was back in february and everybody kind of looked at it, and it was like yeah, okay that that that's weird, but we can't actually be in a recession.

Could we well yeah so uh again, you know this is just part. One who knows next quarter could be positive, but uh wow. That's that's crazy, again, also kind of motivating, and i think that's why the stock market is not like freaking out and crashing, because i think the stock market's like wait a minute. If this is the recession that maybe the worst is already behind us, uh kevin saw my comment: didn't like it, because it doesn't fit his inflection thesis, wow, here's somebody who spent five dollars to be a jaded.

I didn't see your comment uh. Let me scroll up and see if i could find it com you're talking about the conversation i didn't see. This dot com recession started in march. Uh s p had fallen from peak 36 still fell by another 22 until september 22..

Well, actually, the market fell until q1 of of uh, 20, 2023, so yeah, uh and and you're right about uh march of 09 yeah i mean it. Market could totally be paid for a while you're not wrong about that, not wrong at all, but you don't have to be an about it thanks, though uh. So, let's see yeah, i let's see, but anyway i wouldn't be surprised. If that's, why we're seeing a little bit of excitement here and not like the stock market has moved zero? Basically, since this gdp report, i think everything's happening a lot faster today, that's what's so crazy is, and this uh, you know as we sort of live put.

This together, a uh. You know a few days ago. We were talking about again how you know it seems like the stock market's the most pricing in a recession now uh, but but also this belief that the stock market seems to want to price things in much earlier than it ever used to before. And that's because of the the federal reserve about how we basically trade, the fed and that's because of uh this history of uh, the fed setting the standard of federal reserve bailouts in you know: 87.88.

94.95. 2003. You know dot-com bubble, uh, 2008! Uh. Why sorry 2009? For the fed, uh and uh 2018, it's always the fed.

They make everything better or worse, and so it's entirely possible that, because the markets markets don't like to do the same thing that they've done in the past, because that's the predictable thing right like if people, if the con, if the conventional wisdom is tell me when There's a recession, so i could sell stocks before it and buy them back during the recession. If that's the conventional wisdom well, then uh the market is going to start selling stocks earlier and earlier every time and then once we have recessionary indicators, they're more likely to buy back in earlier and earlier and earlier so you know who knows but uh wow. This is just really incredible, but personally, i think, actually really exciting, because it's like, oh all, right well, let's maybe the stock market uh! That's sniffed this out, hello, hi, all right! So, if apple misses today, will you buy the day you know i like? I love the idea buying opportunity of a lifetime yeah. I love some of these.

The the the price is where things off or are right now i think it's so wonderful uh. Just i mean you look at a company like tesla that had the most phenomenal earnings you could ever ask for with this potential growth of a 60 rate uh and a potentially compounded annual going forward for about five years 50 and the company's down 12. From that report, please give me more like please like what what else can i sell to buy more uh? You know i mean companies that are just great companies are just getting destroyed. I mean any small cap is just destroyed and you look at even even a big company like salesforce salesforce was like a 300 stock.

Look at this. It's 174 dollars. Now it's almost down half you know. Uh, i mean tdoc.

We still go half in a day. Right now, which is just like so crazy wow, but that's it. I don't know to me it's it's just very motivating so uh we'll get some other data as well, but that's wow it just it says so much, i guess is the way to put it uh. Don't forget, china's lockdown is insane yeah sell a kidney, that's right! Uh wow kramer loves salesforce.

All you need to know it's so funny, seeing all the inverse kramer memes. It's like well hey! If you can make money one way. I guess that's not that bad uh s arc is up in six months as much as arc is up in five years. No way i wan na see it suck uh year to date, 66 percent, one year, 94 percent one year is a 94, that's crazy and then, if you do rk, let's say five years: 95, it's 96 they're still beating by 2, but you're.

Basically, right s arc is up uh in one year. How much arc is up in five holy crap. That is insane. That's a really good uh good catch holy smokes wow! Oh my gosh can't get over that.

That is wild uh all right. Let's see what some of the other suits are saying all right here we go. Let's see here. Okay, let's see facebook added more users than projected paypal shares rose on better than expected.

First quarter revenue well qualcomm led chip stocks, higher thursday's relief rally, punctuates a weak of nerves by china's struggles to suppress covet russia's war in ukraine and worries the federal reserve, monetary tightening may tip the u.s economy into recession, yeah and then obviously get the gdp data. This morning, this is the first contraction in gdp since 2020 and could be a worrying sign as the ballooning trade deficit in software inventory. Growth is undercutting an otherwise solid consumer and business demand. Picture treasuries, reverse gains 10-year to 2.87.

You know it's really interesting too, because it's almost like it gives like credence to the idea that oh wow, the stock market, has been rough uh. Let's get the bell because well you're in a recession, i was like what do you expect all right? It's listening after some of these reports, you've been getting things big, yeah gaming, especially because gaming has gone down high single digits. It's not stabilized high single digits, so uh anybody who's got gaming chips, people think nvidia, uh or or pcs that you can play games on or it came and face it. I think that the version look, how green that is.

Let's go that is really green s arc, oh yeah, so s arc has actually only been around for six months, you're right uh. When you click like the one-year chart, it's actually only a six-month chart which is crazy, um. That's that's very interesting! Wow yeah, let's uh! Let's uh take a look at how uh markets, starting here so green bar, i mean just green. I don't know like i don't know about you, but i like this.

I mean what what if you know what, if like? Oh, what if the recession's now right and then uh uh you, you get some crazy dip buying in a rally i mean you know what that almost be as great as having a coupon code already in the description link down below that says back to the moon, Which you could take advantage of to to join the amazing programs on building your wealth, uh and uh the course member live streams there. We got to do some talking about about bottom feeding, because this this could be the craziest catalyst for an inflection in the market. Just the realization that oh crap wait, we are in a recession, but wait a minute. Everyone always says: buy stocks in the recession.

Let's go shopping again, you know, stuff could keep falling. I mean we, i think at this point like if you're investing in the stock market. You already know that, like you, don't need the warning like really kevin things could keep going down flanks, um, wow, look at that. We did not get a full candle uh under uh under that zero percent fib.

You know the little the little tip just the tip right here. Okay, just the tip, fell through uh. You know same thing over here, a little bit same thing over here, a little bit. You know what, if this is just the opportunity for a mega balance right here.

I don't know i mean i'm optimistic, you never know. I mean we could end up just going like super red here, the next 10 minutes, because the beginning of the market days are always so stupid, but uh. I don't know it's gon na be very interesting to see how the market reacts today. Okay, let's see uh what some other folks are saying: let's listen to jimbo here, just for a second! Let me see what he's talking about and we'll come back and at 401 he goes.

Why can't you get the maverick back or have you tried the bronco? I mean he's a relentless sales person, as is mary bar. I, like that type yeah i mean they've got but you're betting. It's him thinking that he's got in he's, got an internal combustion group blue and he's got the uh eb group and you want to sell this in 14.. I want to know why all right uh, no nothing super interesting.

This is this is the news of the day. I mean the amount, the amount of stuff we're about to get on. Like fox news uh, i mean really it's gon na be really entertaining. I'm gon na write that tweet uh fox news and tucker are about to have a field day on this gdp print.

It's true, you know it is omg. I don't think a live vlog. Oh no uh qqq, roughly where it started right now down uh down a bit, but still obviously up on the on the day of 1.66, that's roughly where it started. Okay, let's see here the unwinding of the fed balance sheet this year and loss of liquidity and in first threatens to destabilize markets in the economy.

However, there are two potential: mitigating factors, larger than expected: tax hike in the role revolt and the rule of reverse repose. Okay, right, reverse repos are like this one and a half trillion dollar bucket of cash that uh as you uh as you suck money out of the economy, you kind of start taking money out of there first. This is like excess cash that banks are unable to to lend because people don't want to borrow reverse reaper facility. Take a quick okay, let's see here, yeah, okay, so in other words those things get softened.

Well, okay, all right, interesting, no other real news from the suits here: we've got oh bloomberg. Article musk and other tech ceos are out of control. Okay, i mean elon. Musk was joking about adding cocaine back to coke and making it great again, basically, yesterday on twitter, i i can't imagine he actually gets all of his tweets reviewed.

It seems so crazy anyway. So if you look at the now updated articles of like the wall street journal, let's take a look at what they say. So gdp fell at a 1.4 annualized rate in the first quarter, solid consumer and business spending suggest growth will resume drop marked the weakest quarter. Since the spring of 2020, uh, which drove the economy into a deep but short, recession drop in gdp, stem from a widening trade deficit uh and then a slower pace of inventories right.

We talked about that. Despite this slip, many economists think the overall economy remains on track to resume moderate growth in the second quarter and beyond in part, because consumers and businesses continue to spend right. How weird yeah and the uh economist by the surveyed by the wall street journal now expect gdp for the year to be 2.6 of an increase. The fed thinks gdp is going to be at 2.9 percent and the market actually kind of freaked out when we saw 2.9 percent, as opposed to like a three percent measure.

Uh, which we were expecting was something over three percent for the year. But that might be overly optimistic. Central bank has never lowered inflation as much as it's setting out to do now without causing a recession uh. This is true and uh.

One of the things that's so fascinating about it is like well does that create that buying opportunity for us, let's see, wow all right, fascinating, okay, so uh, let's see here, everyone chasing a short squeeze. That would be interesting. What happened to t duck stock yeah? We covered tdoc earnings yesterday and it was really fascinating because they took this 6.6 billion dollar impairment charge to the to the tune of like 43, a share of cost, and nobody really knows why. Let me go on their earnings call again, but uh.

They didn't talk about it in their 8k, at least i didn't see it. The first time i looked at their earnings call, but i will find out all right earnings call q1. Let's see if we can get a little bit more clarity whatever it was. The market didn't like it, because tdoc went from being uh somewhere around point uh what uh or down somewhere around 35 percent, to uh being down 40 something percent, the goodwill impairment which triggered.

I don't know here. It is the goodwill impairment which triggered by the sustained decline in teledoc health share price, with evaluation, size of impairment, change driven by a combination of recent market based facts. What dude? None of that makes sense what no this yeah that's it. This is what i was expecting that they didn't actually say anything that made sense, but i'm just going to read this to you word for word, and you tell me if this makes sense.

The goodwill impairment, which triggered by the sustained decline in teledoc health, share price with evaluation and size of impairment, charge driven by a combination of recent market based factors such as an increasing discount rate and this decreased market multiples for a relevant peer group of high growth. Digital health care companies, as well as updates to our forecasted cash flow, is consistent with the revised guidance disclosed today, like i understand finance, but i do not understand what you just said. I think i know what you just said. I think what you just said is we took a 6.6 billion dollar impairment charge because our stock went down like yeah, but but you are the company, so your stock price should be a signal that why did you have 6.6 billion dollars of goodwill on your balance Sheet, if that's somehow tied to the value of your stock, so like your stock, goes down, your investors get hit twice like that's like the stupidest thing, i've ever heard.

I again - maybe i just don't get it, but yesterday i'm like this sounds really dumb and the fact that they were not disclosing it in their documents in terms of what this is in, their 8k seemed shady. I'm just shocked that more of this impairment talk didn't come up, but whatever whatever fed's talking too much bring on the 0.75 right. Oh my gosh good goodwill is so irrelevant. Isn't it kevin? I mean, i think so i think uh.

I think uh. You know like when i look at a balance sheet. I always take it out. Well, i just don't add it in like when i do my math.

I generally take cash. Uh accounts receivables, sometimes inventories uh, okay, so wow what a remarkable day? Okay! So oh wow, look at tesla, oh tesla just crashed right through the 880 line. What else is happening here see here? Sorry, big sneeze came over. I've been like waiting to sneeze like where? Is it okay? So, let's see what else is happening here so upwork's up: 16 facebook's up 14.

pinterest, 10 qualcomm 7. That's a big move for qualcomm! Although qualcomm has traded sideways for like a year, uh shopify, autodesk paypal. These guys have what four percent something like that? Okay, i'm not gon na read all these guys really interesting, but what's getting destroyed right now, domino's pizza 6.44. Let me see what earnings we had this morning did domino's for dominance to move that much i feel like we'd have to it's a dpz.

It is dpc. I feel like they'd almost have to have earnings mcdonald's reported yeah domino's did report this morning. Okay, let's see what their earnings were: uh, wow yeah. There goes tesla, hey, okay, so dominoes.

Let's do some earnings, it's always fun. Oh yeah, yeah, okay, so domino's revenue came in at 1.01 billion estimate was 1.03. Some headwinds likely to persist into 2022, including headwinds from omicron staffing shortages and unprecedented inflation same store sales down 3.6. This was one of the pandemic, like babies like cherished pandemic stocks.

Everybody's, like oh, everybody's, going crazy for dominoes. It was true like, but i feel like so much so that people stopped wanting dominoes because it's like okay, i'm like domino's. Now i remember that i remember getting my first box of pizza. That's okay! This sounds so weird to say like whoa, my first box of pizza, but it's like i remember when i got my first box pizza after the pandemic started.

You know, because at the beginning of the pandemic, everybody's, like oh, no wipe down your boxes. You're gon na die. Oh my gosh, that's still china today, so crazy, okay, wow! So a little weakness there on uh dominoes. Let's take a look at mastercard.

Today is 4 28 2022. The day that we realized, we were likely in a recession: okay, so mastercard, oh yeah, yeah, all right. Let's look at mastercard numbers market, not happy. Now, all of a sudden keep qq up yeah still up one percent on the nasdaq, but doesn't seem to care about wanting to have a party: okay, mastercard, uh, net revenue, 5.2 billion versus 4.92.

That's a beat on the top line. Bottom line 2.76 versus 2.19 expectations. These are great beats on top and bottom uh really good on both of these yeah. Look at that the cfo, cfo and mastercard.

Listen to this hasn't seen impact from inflation on spending yep. That's exactly what we saw with visa people are still spending money like crazy. How about mickey d's see what's going on at mickey d's mickey's, so mickey d's earnings, okay, mcdonald's q1 customer counts down about one percent. Let's see page two there's so many earnings geez, so many numbers, okay uh they actually beat on adjusted eps comp store sales was a beat and revenue was a beat.

I mean they're at a you know, a triple style beat here without having a forecast. Come sales. Rev and adjust to dps all of those beat so mcdonald's actually did quite well uh strong operating performance, strategic menu price increases. I love when they call them strategic.

It's just really a fancy way of saying yeah we're raising prices. How fascinating some stores in china are still going to be closed? Mec plant burger helped sales in the uk in q1 food paper, inflation has been increasing substantially how interesting uh. Oh? What is this? That's interesting. Listen to this one uh ceo says: average checks have declined in the u.s, but customer loyalty counts are exceeding expectations, but and that customers are not resisting higher prices.

They say that broadly the u.s consumer is quote in good shape. However, lower income consumers are being more value focused. This makes sense, remember the the core demographic that we think is going to get whacked the most because of inflation. I say it regularly: you should know it poorer people, anyone making under 50 to 75 000 a year you're getting hit the worst through inflation, because gas is a higher percentage of your income food same thing.

Okay, all right! I don't want someone to sneezes all of a sudden, my goodness all right. Let's do another earnings here, earnings, okay, so we did mastercard mcdonald's, and i want to read these earnings calls as well as finishing some of them from yesterday very disappointed by tdoc. With this impairment charge is like the weirdest thing ever over stock. That would be a little bit of a consumer tell here all right: let's try them yeah tesla's, not very happy right.

Now, i'm also going to see if there's news on tesla just look news so yeah the only news is elon winning the 13 billion lawsuit, which is huge news by the way. That's why i made the video on it yesterday. So weird in the pre-market. Tesla was up 2.4.

Now it's down almost five: oh tesla, la tesla, okay, so overstock misses revenue. Miss 536 mil versus 574 expected net rev eps misses by a penny. Oh wow baron says shares fall after earnings, miss and customers leave. Ouch overstock dropped more than eight percent pre-market, thursday overstock online furniture, home decor rugs and other household items said.

First quarter, net income fell 10 million compared with 16 million for the same quarter. Last year per share basis, 21 cents. Uh, active customers fell 26 from a year over earlier wow wow, oh la tesla, hola tesla. Why do you have to do me like that? Go uh, okay, so that's overstock, which is really shocking.

Let's look at caterpillar in the meantime. Look at that we're almost we. We, like soared through that 880 line. Let's see if we get a bounce on the 23.6, but uh yeah somebody's like elon selling.

It wouldn't surprise me. You know that uh that elon was selling uh. You know coming out of uh coming out of the twitter deal and selling again now, which is really wonderful actually, because if you uh, if you, if elon's selling, he's gon na, take the order book uh straight down to the toilet uh because uh there's like i Can't imagine there's so freaking much buying money available right now, and so it's all if there aren't that many buyers more than usual and elon's dumping, then uh you're gon na eat the order book up so bad and you're gon na see this kind of stuff. Oh, my gosh is that gon na be a perfect bounce on the 23.6 phobia.

No, but we don't use the minute candlesticks t-doc is halted. Are you serious, dude o'reilly's down 10 right now? Oh my gosh t doc. Oh my gosh! It is t-doc. It's halted.

I wonder why let me see this is a really entertaining day. There's a lot going on today, so tdoc price target cut to 65 dollars from 120 at rbc jpmorgan downgrades, tdoc circuit, breaker volatility trading, pause, credit, suites downgrades, teledoc lots of downgrades just hit teledoc sinks, 45 biggest intraday drop on record uh huh someone's like i'm. Taking a loss on twitter to get more tesla la tesla all right, let's look at southwest all right. South west talk to me who remembers from the show full house who used to say that phrase man, those were the days.

Those are the days before laurie laughlin was a cheater the good old days. Those are the 90s come on somebody's got to know in the comments wow southwest uh southwest operating revenue comes in as expected: 4.69 billion uh passenger revenue 4.14 slight miss operating a loss a little better than expected, uh nobody, nobody, nobody with a comment on who was Talk to me, i'm gon na pull him up now come on somebody's got ta. Remember this guy come on no john stamos jesse, exactly adam miller, jesse, exactly no man all right! Look at me southwest uh, bob jordan cons, no sign inflation affecting strong demand uncle jesse. Exactly yeah, of course it was jesse.

This is uncle jesse. No, not the the comedy uh blonde guy. It was his joey, not joey. You know, uh.

Does anybody know the painted, ladies in san francisco they're the uh at the beginning of the song right? Whatever happened to predictability, the milkman, the paperboy right like that anyway, i almost bought one of those okay, we got ta get to finish here with uh southwestern some of these others. Those are pretty important but um. If you want to see, if you want to see my video on uh on that, take a look at this, how i lost the three million dollar deal, the pink painted lady. I highly recommend you watch that and look at when i posted that video january 24th.

2020, like literally right before the pandemic, that thing would have closed escrow like february 20th of 2020.. I would have gotten stuck with a property in san francisco right before the pain i mean it wouldn't have. It would have been fine because obviously the real estate market killed it, but isn't full house like really old, oh come on man come on. Don't do me like that? Okay, okay, sorry, we got ta, get southwest earnings and uh.

Then we're gon na keep going, but yeah full house was uh late, 80s to mid 90s, so uh rest of these earnings thanks pro bam, all right. Um traffic up 78 uh, ceo, no sign inflation - is affecting strong demand. Demand may be fully restored by year end. These numbers consistently are saying like, in my opinion, we're almost like becoming one, but probably in one right now, uh some order changes with planes; okay, let's look at another earnings call or earnings calls i'll circle back on, but i want to get some initial reports here.

So we talked oh pg. No, i don't really care about that. One uh comcast! That's not that exciting mcdonald's! Oh caterpillar! That's the last one i wanted to do so. Let's see what we got in caterpillar, yeah, well freight's already been declining uh.

I see somebody here says: look up freight recession, 22. freight's already been i'm pretty sure in in recession mode, it's not so great for, like leading indicators for people buying stuff online right, okay, so caterpillar beats on eps beats on revenue. Let's see here, china construction demand weakened in q1. I mean that's, not a surprise wow.

They expect uh expect china to be weaker than in 2019. Russia, ukraine, war, not material to results. Wow still facing semiconductor constraints, still positive on mining and yeah doesn't expect to benefit on dealer restockings down. Five percent.

Okay is diz at 68, expensive uh. Well, so this has a lot priced in for disney plus, obviously um, which is, is a concern of mine. Despite the fact that i think the parks are going to absolutely blow out revenue, but uh disney is selling for 2022 projection is and 41 cents, and that puts you at about 25.8 times 2022 earnings. You might be looking at a trailing 12, which is uh 2.11 cents for earnings.

That puts you about 54 or you could honestly be looking at like 2021 numbers, which which would probably more align with that that pe that you're writing down, but uh yeah. If you look at 2022, it's not as horrible for growth expected this year in the 25 range and then probably back down to like 10 to 14 growth for dis, what a crazy day so crazy earnings uh! You know mcdonald's no reduction in spending from inflation. Overstock though active customers falling 28 that could have to do with that freight recession yeah, let's see days to i'm, trying to remember how many days elon actually has to disclose like uh. Let's see here, if we look at that's a it's a very good question for for elon.

Okay. So if we jump into uh, you know if we just go to company filings on the sec and then throw in tesla, and we go for the last reports that he was filing ownership disclosures. You know, form four, and yet the chief accounting officer sold some stocks. They say it was part of the 10b51 7000 shares this year, blah blah blah, okay, so form four sec form.

Four rules, let's find out form four must be filed two days following the transaction date: okay and tesla. Let's see here, tesla really took the big hit on the 26th, which was tuesday, so the rule is, must be filed within two business days following the transaction date. So that means the 27 he could file. Today we could find out today that elon's selling um oh, did gary black tweet about this too, but yeah he based on the rule he would have until i don't see anything from gary, but i'll write it down.

This is actually kind of interesting, elon musk. If elon musk started selling la tesla stock on tuesday, he technically wait two days two business days after right, yeah, that's today until tonight to file his form for sec disclosure, in which case we could see that well. Basically, so so today, we'll know that either elon is selling or the market is just fearful that elon may sell either way. We should get some certainty.

Uh market, like certainty, wow, very interesting, okay. So it's in tweets and replies. Let's take a look at this. Oh yeah, no, he has, he has until today to file i'll just say i tweeted this.

If you want to follow me on twitter, i recommend it at realme. Kevin form. Four requires disclosure. Within two days after a sale, a transaction yeah yeah cause.

That would be tuesday sale. This is like real estate transactions, tuesday sale wednesday day. One thursday day. Two today yeah there we go all right: wow uh, what a freaking crazy day, uh terrible gdp print, suggesting that maybe the recession is now and uh and and lots of pain.

The pain continues. Uh qqq barely barely trying to hold on, though sitting at about uh point six percent. We're really bouncing along on the at least a one minute chart around that zero percent phibi uh haircut looks fair. Oh thank you for that.

Could arc be selling tesla. They need money, especially after the loss, maybe maybe uh, who knows after zillow's big loss, uh kathy wood is like peace pictures and she sold out of out of zillow. Can he just yeah yeah? Okay, we talked about that yeah sure i mean, but you don't wan na. Why would you i don't know why you would delay filing that? Okay, cool time for another cup of coffee and to read some earnings calls well what a fun morning on a fun market open.

Thank you so much for being here. Folks, uh! Oh by the way this video is brought to you by ftx. If you have not yet checked out ftx and you want to get free crypto make sure you go to medkevin.com ftx thanks so much for watching the video and folks we'll see you next one goodbye.