Welcome back to another market, open, live stream. Okay. Today, we've got a few things to consider uh. First of all, there's some drama going on in europe, especially regarding poland and russia.

It's no surprise that we would expect more drama out of russia, though uh but uh russia is turning off the gas tap to poland, specifically because what russia wants is rather than receive money uh from poland for the natural gas supplies that russia is selling the russian State-Owned gas companies are selling what russia wants and putin wants is that poland should have a bank account in poland, and then one in russia transfer money to russia, convert it to rupaul's and then pay for gas and rupals uh. Now, poland, it gets about uh 43 of their natural gas from russia. Germany gets about 42 from russia. The eu overall gets about 27 from russia, but the more east you go, the more gas you end up getting from russia and and it's a lot uh.

For example, finland, slovakia, bulgaria, belarus, moldova, lithuania, latvia and estonia are closer to 100 percent uh somewhere between 98 to 100 percent gas uh received from russia, which is pretty remarkably high uh. So this uh this has created some tensions in the market. Obviously uh there have been so many tensions in this market because of uh the war and anytime. We get this kind of nonsense uh.

It ends up moving natural gas prices in europe, which creates uh more inflationary concerns. I mean it's just it's exhausting how many things are occurring that just continue to re-amplify uh, natural uh or inflationary concerns, so natural gas is up today, uh oil is actually slightly down, but only about uh half to three quarters of a percent, depending on which one You're looking at bonds stable today and as we go into the pre-market here, we've got a little bit of green uh. We've got uh a dow up about 0.6, probably guessing, probably led by microsoft. Their earnings are pretty decent.

Let me see here yeah, microsoft, 4.51. In the pre-market uh s p up 0.31 nasdaq only up about 0.1, so relatively flat here. Another thing that just happened is we got word that bill huang from archagos uh, the family office that uh we had this, this massive uh falling out with uh uh and a massive collapse of a multi-billion dollar sort of empire uh through uh derivatives trading and the Bond market just total collapse. This was somewhere back in february or march of 2021.

I even remember kathy wood, making a video and in her video she was talking about how wow the economy must be doing well, because we were able to absorb the bill. Wang disaster and the eric goes disaster and she talked about how she had actually uh known him. So i thought that was quite kind of interesting. Anyway, after nearly a year actually more than a year bill, huang has now been arrested, charged with 11 counts of market manipulation, fraud, wire fraud and so on and so forth.

He at one point had positions that ballooned to 160 billion dollars through deceptive trading practices, hiding uh the actual size of his portfolio. Now one of the ways he did this is he he would borrow money from one bank uh against his his shares that he that he uh owned but uh other banks didn't know that he had already borrowed against them and then they too lent against those shares. So you had sort of multiple banks lending against the same collateral. So when things went bust they went bust, uh good to talk about uh, google's earnings call.

I got a little bit of uh, we'll take a brief look as well. At the end, phase earnings call so both of these. Obviously yesterday afternoon you get the earnings, calls usually about 30 minutes to an hour, sometimes even later uh after the earnings actually come out. Uh i mean google's numbers were just really incredible, even though the market wasn't extremely happy.

The market is very difficult to please right now. Uh, it's really incredible: they've created uh 12 000 new jobs in america. They uh are now getting about 30 billion daily views on youtube shorts alone. That's forex growth on youtube shorts.

They uh grew their q1 revenue 44 year over year. What's really crazy about that is 44 growth uh year over year, uh for for google, one of our big, you know, fan companies, and here we are worried about recession, yet they're growing at 44. It's really really incredible. Uh this month, weibo, they said became the first company to fully run uh autonomous variety hailing operations in multiple locations.

At the same time, employees uh can take a ride in san francisco and now joining uh rainbow riders in in phoenix. So now you've got two areas where ramo is operating. These uh self-driving services really interesting. They also have a wing.

Drone delivery, service and wing is now co completed about 50 000 commercial deliveries up 3x from a year ago, really neat uh. What else did they say here? Let's see oh yeah q1. This was crazy. Q1 travel searches because it told us a bit about the consumer.

Q1 travel searches were here, i'll show it to you. This is their ending. Q1 travel searches were above q1, 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Uh growth in the categories search growth in the categories like beaches and islands were up 27 vacation, rentals rose 37 and compared to last year, global searches for passport online jumped 80, while searches for travel insurance, doubled, wow, uh, google services, revenue grew 20 percent and retail Was the largest contributor of year on year, growth of our ads business in q1? That's huge right here! Look at that followed by travel, really incredible yeah! So, let's see here, then we had google maps searches for shopping near me, we're up 100 globally year over year.

Now this doesn't necessarily mean that the consumers are going to spend more uh, but as people maybe shift away from online and more towards in-store purchases uh but uh, it does mean that people are going to stores. However, take a look at this omni channel is still a winning strategy. This is where you have both online and retail, like what square does where uh, basically they'll they'll, do sort of your inventory management for you and check out and so on, and so they'll they'll work with you in your business too. It's not sponsored by square but uh they'll work with you in your business to make sure that if you have a retail store, you're also online right.

This video is sponsored by ftx, make sure to check them out via the link down below and if you're going to trade crypto, you may as well trade it over at ftx check them out, go to medkevin.com, ftx uh, all right so uh. Let's see here a little bit more here, then we've got uh us youtube accounts account for over 50 percent of ad supported stream time. So if you want to invest in companies that are exposed to video advertising, a peer play is trade desk, but that doesn't target the youtube 50. It targets the other 50.

So, in order to get the youtube 50 goog's the way to do it. Google uh, let's see here over 30 viewers in this group, can't be reached by any others ad supported streaming platform. That's crazy, uh! Anyway! That's that's! Really incredible! Oh youtube's phenomenal uh! Let's see here, testing youtube shorts net income, 16.4 billion, just an incredible amount of money. I mean look at their free cash flow 15.7 billion.

One of the things that i really like about google by the way is they're the margins they're very much like uh end phase high margin, business they're very much like visa as well. Uh and tesla is becoming that uh, the the more high margin. You are, the more insulated you are from economic downturns and recessions, uh speaking of end phase, which we'll look a little bit at them in just a moment, end phase uh. They they announced that they actually bought back more shares at 155.

A share like oh, my gosh. They used to buy back shares every time the stock hit like 120, and that was sort of my my threshold for like oh. This is a. This is a good thing right, like that's.

That's the the price to buy end phase at now, they're buying back shares at 150, 50. 155 bucks. That's end phase. Google also repurchased 52 billion of shares in the last 12 months.

Really incredible. It just shows how much extra cash there is. That's really being used to uh. You know, go back to shareholders, ideally in the way of of uh increasing stock prices by uh.

You know buying up the shares, but lately stocks have been going down, they're, not up. So uh, let's see here all right, a little bit of google services up other bats. Okay, this is interesting. We do not have a tab and this was not great uh.

We do not have that. Okay, here in terms of outlook by segment for google services, the revenue growth rates we delivered in 2021 in our advertising, businesses benefited from lapping covert related weakness in 2020.. Obviously, we will not have that tailwind for the rest of year, as discussed in prior calls. The largest impact from kovitt on our results was the second quarter of 2020, which means the second quarter of 2022 will face a particularly tough comp as we lap the recovery in the second quarter of 21..

Additionally, in the q2 or the q2, results will continue to reflect that we suspended the vast majority of our commercial activities in russia, which obviously didn't really happen until march uh, which is you know, two-thirds of the way through uh q1. So, in other words, what they're saying is we're probably going to miss expectations in q2? This is something that didn't really help the stock right uh. This, i think, led to a little bit more anxiety because they're, basically telling you hey we're going to miss our next earnings that doesn't make you wonder, though, if next earnings season could be a buy, the dip off or if uh markets are just going to price. In the this uh, you know this this difficult quarter next quarter so we'll see uh, let's see here within our revenues by first quarter, the substantial growth in youtube subscription revenues was offset by a decline in play.

Revenues versus the first quarter due to fee changes. You know the uh google pro youtube premium is is really incredible and i highly recommend it to everyone. Hashtag, also not sponsored by youtube premium, but a lot of people are like. Oh kevin, like i like love youtube, but i hate watching ads and then i'm thinking to myself.

Well, you probably have a netflix subscription that you're not even watching. Meanwhile, you could spend that, like 12 bucks on youtube, uh and uh and not um not ever see ads again, which is kind of cool uh. Okay, not uh. I wan na see what else we have here.

Let's see here, uh most direct impact from revenue was because of russia, and but only about one percent of which they talked a lot about youtube shorts i mean over and over and over again about their interest in youtube shorts. I think that's really because they're trying to fight tick-tock, yeah yeah, i mean just over and over again multiple times. Okay, so now end phase the thing that we noticed with course members yesterday and i saw some course members were buying en phase yesterday after we noticed this uh but uh, we noticed where is it oh yeah? Here yesterday we went through in the course member live. We pulled up the end phase, uh earnings report from q4 and one of the things that was actually really bullish for end phase was.

They said they don't have any issues with asic supply, which is really important for their new iq8 and iq7 micro, inverters, uh, and - and so they talked about how they're heavily going to be ramping, the iq, eights and uh. This really uh helped them in a q1. I believe and uh, and so we had a massive beat from end phase and we also had raised guidance from end phase. The stock stopped 9.21 uh, so that was that's quite exciting.

To see a good beat here from end phase, the um one of the things that i really enjoyed about the earnings call is they're talking about eventually getting higher margins from their battery, because they've got a new version of their battery coming up and probably the biggest Thing that was sort of a theme in the earnings call was that uh they've been pretty good on supply chains, but mostly households are willing to pay more uh. That is something that i noticed in multiple different places of the earnings call modest price increases is something they talked about multiple times specifically about the batteries, but also on micro inverters, and they talked a lot about how they expect households to continue to pay. I thought this was actually a little bit surprising because i thought that uh, but then again you know i'm thinking, maybe a little too far ahead. I think that, as the real estate market potentially slows down, the likelihood of people continuing to invest in in solar uh is is going to be substantially reduced.

Now, yesterday, uh bloomberg's nef, which is their energy research service uh, had a had a piece about how they expect solar deployments in 2022 uh to be quite low, uh relative to uh to other quarters. I think i can get this photo here. Uh. You know what the easiest thing for me to do is literally just take a picture of it really quick.

I could air drop it. You know this is a hundred percent reliable, just taking a photo, but i want you to see this chart because really interesting and i do think it has some implications for the solar industry going forward if these predictions end up being correct. So here it is take a look at this, so look at 2022 in terms of solar deployment is sitting right here and uh. It makes you wonder, like what's up with that giant decline right there from 2021 uh, it's basically at the same level as 2020, uh and uh.

We really expect to be substantially higher here on solar deployments, but that 2022 would be some form of a hole for solar deploy. Well, not, i suppose, uh a little bit of a a surprise but uh okay, so yeah, that's uh! That's google! That's end phase! Then uh we've got a little bit on tesla in that uh. Obviously, a lot of a lot of these concerns that maybe elon has even begun selling shares already. That's because uh the volume for tesla has not been above 40 million shares per day other than uh.

Four other days this year, that is four days this year, three in late january, during the selling panic one at the start of the war february 24th and then yesterday, you've had tesla trade over 40 million shares and that's twice the typical volume that we see for Tesla of around 18 to 22 million shares a day, and so this has given rise to at least some fears that either elon will be selling shares and and maybe you have uh, that sort of speculation leading to higher volumes or uh that uh that he already Is selling shares and that's what's leading to higher volumes now something that i think is really incredible, and people get mad at me for this like hold on you know. People are always like, oh kevin, says, he's not a traitor, yet he likes to look at the fibonacci. You know this like. I think it's really ironic, because uh you know what i'm trying to do is i'm trying to buy at the best opportunities uh or by by the dip, at least at as many times as i can at great opportunities.

And i really like my support lines and my fib lines to help me know: okay, do how comfortable should i feel, buying the dip here and uh? What's really incredible, is we have this, this uh support line for tesla and uh? It's it's right here at about eight eighty and that's roughly, where we're trending now, which is quite interesting, because if we look at tesla stock right here, look at this, we got this substantial overreaction. Yesterday then, we recovered a little bit in after hours, went up to our 38.2 retracement and bounced off of that, and now we're bouncing off the 880 we're at 885 right now right. So so we're getting these uh this! This very interesting uh bouncing - and it's almost perfect - i mean we have this over cell over here right, but then look at that. You bounce off the 880, reiterating that line you bounce off the 38, two reiterating that line as as resistance and then there's that 880.

Again becoming support on the minute channel here. This is a line that we have had drawn probably for about a year. So it's a very strong line. In fact, i'm gon na bump it a little bit uh, it's uh.

It's consistently proven itself so very interesting. If you don't have a line drawn on 880, yet i think you're making a mistake. Just like the weenies who are like yeah you're, only traders use fibonaccis only morons, don't i'm just kidding you might not. You just might not be familiar with them.

That doesn't mean you're a uh. Some commenters are morons, though, which is kind of entertaining all right. Fibs are the cheat codes for the market, that's funny so uh, you know yeah. I think that's a good way to put it as looking at support lines almost as a margin of safety.

Let's look at qqq, though yeah i mean because look at that same thing. Yesterday we had that crazy, overreaction right here on the minute candle and we're bobbing around that 318 level right now. I just really hope this zero percent doesn't become a resistance level. We really need to open and sit above this that that's really important for the market, because we like sitting at the zero percent on the qqq, is bad okay.

We only did that three times so far this year, which is, i know, that's a lot uh but uh, but but now we're just in in uh heavy over reaction territory here, and it really represents the fears that the federal reserve is going to force a recession. To eliminate inflation, they say they don't want to, but you know i have a hard time believing what they say, because every time they say one thing they uh they changed their mind. You know they uh. They changed their mind on us in in december, which we learned a lot about in in january uh.

Then they said uh. Then they kind of paired back those comments in january and february uh. Then they paired back the comments a lot around february 24th and march 14th. They were going to be more data, dependent and wait to see what was going on, and then you know by mid april they're like yeah, now never mind.

We change our mind. We don't want to be daddy depending more we're just gon na we're just gon na hike now and and uh. You know if we have to change we'll change it. It's it's just annoying, just can't trust them.

They'll tell you one thing: one day and the next day, they'll come out and uh tell you something different. It's just annoying, it's okay for them to change their mind, but, like i don't understand, uh how how you could have a fed fomc meeting like it's literally you're gon na. Have your meeting to get together and collectively say one thing, but then individually say something different. Uh that that that i think is, is the annoying part, because then it's kind of like wait.

What's the point of the meetings, you know, i don't know all right again: it's okay! If they change their mind, i'm happy to know about it, but that that always felt weird to me. Okay, so uh five-year, breakevens, uh stable right now, 3.26 10-2, stable at about 22 basis points. There's been some talk about it, flattening it really hasn't. If anything, it's steeping, which is a good thing, uh bloomberg intelligence now calling the s p.

500. Sheep. If you take out apple and one more here, i'm trying to get this to load stop by uh. Oh here we go okay and microsoft.

Okay, this year's equity market rut has eliminated much of the premium for the s p, 500 tech sector p e x s was widespread at the start of 2022. It is almost entirely concentrated in mega caps. Now, without apple and microsoft, the group trades at 0.4 times standard deviations below the five year average and is among the most discounted group within the s p. 500.

That's the s, p tech sector, oh quite interesting! That might merit a little bit more uh. Digging later. Very cool, so, let's see here, putting on headphones and listening to your market live videos, while at work is worth paying for youtube, and the mention in this chat. Oh well, thanks for that all right.

Some people here arguing about scripted tv versus not okay, uh. Hopefully, today is a better day yesterday was pretty wild, so excited about that. Not only uh uh, not only market wise, you know, and the market wise part doesn't bother me as much. I know people say that's uh, that's crazy, like like how can the numbers not it doesn't really matter? You know the when, when you put money in the stock market, really it's it's a bad idea to to trade, the entire portion of your portfolio, and i i even said that when i did it, you know i i don't look back and and - and you know Even though it worked out, i don't look back and say like man, i uh so glad i traded it's like well, it worked out, but also it's just like you know, i get it.

It's like it's not what i talk about doing right and i said that at the time too like this is. This is the opposite of what i talk about, and so i felt bad about that uh and still do. But anyway, the point is uh. You don't really care about the fluctuations, so i always think it's entertaining when people like oh kevin, you know kevin's, scared or oh kevin, looks stressed today.

It's like well, maybe i look stressed, but it's usually not because of numbers on the screen. It's usually something else. Like when your best friends put a knife in your bag - oh but sorry we don't have to talk about that uh. We have no idea if elon already sold tesla but uh it.

You know it's possible um who nobody knows. Nobody knows. Thank you. Welcome uh hard to trust people these days, yeah no kidding it really uh it empties uh the the trust banks uh, but i am also really sad because lauren's so devastated.

You know i think, uh the the the brilliant minds in the comment section don't understand. There is more of a friendship uh than than even an employee relationship. Oh well, oh well. Okay, so uh! We got four minutes to go until the market opens.

Let's go ahead and look at uh the uh market. Here - and i know people say: oh you shouldn't mix friendship with business or whatever, but uh our relationship started as a close friendship and uh only evolved into into working together, which i guess the saying would still hold true for but oh well, end phase. Uh top of the charts today up sitting about eight nine percent. Look at the visa.

Let's go seven percent on visa, that's really good uh! I love seeing visa move because it it to me it's just it's. Basically, just hey. Consumers are spending the dollar hollas and uh again. I i realize this, but it is true that consumers are likely to spend the most money at the peak of a market cycle right because that's when wealth feels the highest and that's when comfort feels the highest and that's when generally when people are, you know feeling Rich is is when we should be careful, uh, big fan of that, and i've been talking about that for months, and i think a lot of us agree with the idea of like hey.

You know, let's, let's be a little more careful with margin. Let's be a little bit more careful with uh uh with with our spending than maybe we were last year, but right now the the average consumer just does not seem to care. But then again, the average consumer also isn't watching our videos, uh y'all y'all, a different breed, uh, all right, so chipotle four point: three percent arabians actually up about four today, so getting a little bit of uh uh. How would you how would we say it? A little bit of a risk on uh, a comeback which is is nice to see you know with snowflakes, moving up and rivets moving up, it's nice to see a little bit of a risk on move again, just because there has been so much uh pain in The last uh well really, since about the middle of april, it's been uh.

Actually you know, probably all of april almost which is kind of crazy. To think about. Almost all of april has just been pain, uh, so uh. You know hats off to you.

If you've made it through this and haven't lost your mind yet because it's uh it could be exhausting, but um yeah embry air is up a little bit as well. What do we got? Looking at the down uh spotify? Are you serious, spotify down uh, ten percent? Just anything internet uh, it's just getting reamed uh i'll, look at spotify to see what's going on here, but spotify is our big loser here uh it looks like this was an earnings miss from this morning. Actually, it is okay, let's see what we have for these earnings and get the bell so quickly. We have.

Subscribers came in at 182 million versus 182.7 expected and their forecast uh came in. I mean both these came in, like fractionally lower than expected. Their q1 active users came in at 422, mil versus 417. I mean that's, that's pretty good uh total premium subscribers 187 versus the estimate of 189.4.

I mean this is like a minor miss here: premium revenue up 23 ad supported revenue up 31 gross margin, 25.2 uh q2 expectations reflect the full closure of russia. I mean these are not bad earnings and they got destroyed uh down about 10. Today, that's that's. Just nutty this shows you the insanity, the market, but whatever listen to the bell watching our stops, i think you would say that everyone's running for cds - and you know i don't think that cds are the place to be right now there goes the valve and the Cnbc real time exchange here at the big board kind of body.

It's a fertility benefits american society of reproductive medicine at the nasdaq digital media and internet company, this davis and there's the open. It looks like we're up 10 points. You know one level to watch on the s. P is 41.70 because we didn't get below that was the closing low in march.

I don't know these screamers are like children today, uh, but uh. Sarah eisen talking about uh spy about 409.. I like to have the spy up and then she's talking about uh s, p and she's she's, not wrong uh. That was uh.

That was our our our low over here. This sort of uh triple bounce over here. These are the levels that we want to pay attention to. This was intraday the zero percent here drawn all the way to intraday, but if we draw sort of a line here at close, we're we're pretty close to those those lows so we'll keep an eye on uh.

Seeing how these things behave here at open, uh looks like we're actually getting a little bit of green at the open here, at least on spy uh nasdaq as well really want to see this above the zero percent uh, it is uh. I mean we've been talking about that just for for a couple months now and uh, it's already devastating to be at the zero percent, but hey no worries. It is what it is so uh all right. Let's see how some other things are moving as well and uh wan na see, so we talked about spotify yeah, the spotify disaster she's, i don't know, i don't even know what to say about it.

Other than uh slight misses, but get large losses these days in the stock market. I think that's a that's an easy way to put it small, misses big losses, so do what google's doing and guide well uh, because if you guide like really pessimistically, maybe that'll uh that'll prevent some of the drama uh, so um yeah, uh earnings. Today, some of the larger earnings today that we'll be paying attention to as well boeing. We talked spotify a little bit: uh we've got uh hertz, teledoc, pinterest, qualcomm, ford, paypal and then facebook a lot of these uh in the after hours.

I think boeing, though, was this morning. We could do a quick peek at boeing. Let's see here ba last earnings call. They talked a lot about how supply chain issues were not affecting them either, and one of the reasons they believe that supply chain issues were not much of an issue for them had to do with the the fact that they have so many plane orders already sitting On standby and that they don't necessarily have issues uh because they they have so many parts in their factories, and it's just a matter of getting it together.

Getting those air maxes out, uh they've taken a lot of concessionary hits on the air maxes. I flew on an air max a little bit ago, uh about 10 10 to 14 days ago. I flew on an air max and when i flew on the air max, i asked the steward about uh about the air max and he said yeah. You know we.

We try not to tell people that this is an air max which i thought was quite entertaining uh and then, when the pilots did a that sort of a restroom break, i uh i i was in the front row, so i kind of like slightly showered over Shouted over to him like hey. How do you like the air max and he's like yeah? I prefer airbus and i'm like great, makes me very very comfortable that the stewards and the pilots don't like it, um, hey yeah, but what are you gon na do so? Uh boeing reported revenue of 13.99 billion dollars. The estimate was for 15.94 billion dollars. That's a it's! Quite a large miss there record charges on fixed price defense programs, uh, probably having to do with russia.

Uh 787 certification plans sent to faa okay negative cash flow of 3.57. That's more than the negative cash flow of 3.23 expected yeah 95 commercial airplane deliveries, 777 production temporarily paused through 2023 boeing on track to generate positive cash flow for 2022. You know one of the things that's so confusing about the boeing lineup is that i think the 747 is larger than the 777 and 87. uh it.

It's certainly bigger than the uh 57. I know that actually one of the other ones might be larger. It's it's totally out of order like if you, google, like a chart of the uh, you know what i'll try that really quick uh boeing model by size. It's it's so super weird uh to me.

It's just like why. Why do you have to make it so confusing? Uh, let's see here, oh yeah, okay, there are plenty of results on goog. It's just somewhat interesting to see. Let me try to pick a good one here, um, no, that's 747.

They get oh! No. They have like five different versions of the 747. That's a disaster! No! I can't find the good one that i was looking at the last time, but anyway, boeing, plane sizes. Let's try that uh! Oh yeah! Here we go.

Okay! That's that's a good one! Uh! That's no! That's airbus! There. We go okay, huh! It's on pinterest. How interesting so the there's, the 777 uh, which is actually a little bit longer than the boeing 747. But then you have a different.

747. 777, that's smaller than the 747. uh yeah. They mix this with airbus here, not that good anyway, i found a better chart one day and it was very confusing and i just find a lot of things confusing about boeing, especially that air max.

I was very disappointed with that, especially since they played you know they agreed to to fraud uh, which is kind of scary, that you'd have fraud related to the building and manufacturing of of the air max kind of disappointing and scary uh anyway. Take a look at this: here's, your nasdaq, really taking off here right at the uh at the onset of the day here, you've got uh a solid, clear bounce here on tesla off of uh 880 uh support lines again proving correct uh. Google is really getting hit hard here. I i really kind of disagree with with this pain.

I think this pain is being is the pricing in of what's going to be a bad q2 uh and uh? For me, i golly that's actually starting to look somewhat juicy as an opportunity. Uh i mean i google, as an advertising place, is huge, so um we're definitely gon na, be paying a lot of attention to google and uh continuing to read their their earnings report. Uh visa kicking butt here, oh i did get it. Let me see.

Did i get the vsync visa? I really just want to quickly take a look at visa, mostly for consumer purposes. I'll read the rest of the details. A little later. Let's see, if i get.

Oh yay, it finally came through, i don't know. Sometimes airdrop is very finicky on apple. Does anybody else have that with uh these products uh? Thank you t lawrence for the 19.99. I appreciate all the valuable content you have provided over the months.

Thank you. So much nearly 10 gain not worth the risk on twitter uh. You know that deal does not have to go through. You always have to remember that tesla's f, uh fd crashed 90.

Yesterday juicy. Let's see here, t-mobile crushed it, nice good uh, had the same thing happened to me a few years ago in my yoga studio, my best friend left my studio and opened one behind my back and stole my customers. You know that's the worst, that's so sad! You know, and that's the thing too is like you know: people on the inside have proprietary information right and then somebody like, let let's just say we we were. We were so close that we almost got to the point where it was just like.

Here's, like complete bank account access uh. You know it's just it's it's just crazy. It's it's so uh discouraging to humanity but uh anyway. Let me get this stupid.

Visa come on. Airdrop piss me off, got it all right good, so i've not been through the visa earnings call yet, but we're just going to go through some parts of it together. Here, i'm going to start by typing in consume, uh: okay! Well, that did nothing uh. How about price uh? Okay, so, let's see revenue growth was helped by high currency volatility.

Select pricing modifications, data processing revenues grew 16 percent uh below the 19 process. Transactions growth, mostly due to exchange rates, so service grew 24 faster than the 20 nominal growth payment volume. We were able to bill and collect service revenues in russia through early march. Second quarter, they're going to expect a hit for that.

Okay. So just selectively hopping around here here we go uh trends. Year over year, u.s payment volume was up 12 with debit up two percent credit up 26. That's interesting! I wonder, like loan balances, if we can get those here's outlook for the rest of 2022, then we'll remember to look for loans too.

Excuse me, the suspension of their business in russia will reduce second half revenues by about four percent uh, so this is about russia year over year. This is the same thing that google's saying year over year, growth rates will moderate, as we lap the strong second half recovery in 2021 on top of uh the pain from uh russia. Let's see, we expect full year net revenue to be in the high teens to 20 range, no change in our expectation of full year incentives, post covid. We remain confident we could sustain a growth rate uh.

This is, this is pretty positive, sustain a growth rate about pre-covered levels for all the reasons uh their other person outlined acceleration away from cash. That's interesting so not necessarily more trend, more uh spending, but the sick, but but less people using cash, which is something that the pandemic really helped accelerate. That's quite interesting in value-add sectors. I just want to know about consumer spending and consumer debt levels.

Fuel prices going up, consumers tend to moderate their buying. In times of large increases in gas to the that makes sense, your fuel prices go, but on the other hand, sometimes consumers tend to moderate their buying. In terms of large increases right, inflation adds some puts and takes on our businesses. Absolutely we see some ticket size.

Okay, let's see what is this we've seen, some ticket sizes go up in the u.s and europe, but it's not all inflation. Some of it is mix mix is driven by the fact that card present transactions, which tend to be smaller transactions, have not yet fully come back transactions. Even when you do everyday purchases can be large, larger ticket sizes. That's interesting so there they haven't completely seen a comeback of the small biz and or just the car like when people are in store and how there's a difference between never really thought about that.

But it makes sense like i probably spend more on larger transactions online than i do in a store right like if i'm gon na buy something expensive oftentimes buying. It online didn't think about that, though very interesting uh. So in general there isn't any evident impact on inflation. This is probably for them here: uh, we could see ticket sizes go down in inflationary times as card presence come back, so there's a multiple impact from inflation people potentially spending less, but then also people are not just spending less but having smaller transaction sizes uh.

They believe they have not. This is look at that. We have not seen any impact on discretionary spending that we can discern holy crap. That is such a huge line right there uh.

If anything, discretionary spending, especially for affluent customers and credit card holders, has been going up quite healthy. Are you kidding me dude? This is literally the opposite of what i expected at the beginning of the year. I was wrong. I said at the beginning of the year.

I'm worried consumers are going to spend less because they're going to fear a recession and then, when war struck uh you know we were worried that this is not good for consumers. Look at this. This is visa uh. You know i mean here: let's google, this percentage of transactions visa handles uh visa accounts for 44 of card purchase transactions worldwide, mastercard generates 24.4, so visa almost handles half of the transactions and yet they're telling us.

If anything, people are spending more, not less dude. That's insane, this reiterates what i said over the last few weeks on the channel that it's not just inflation, that's leading to higher consumer spending. Because again, if you have a hundred dollars, it just means you're getting less product. People are making the conscious decision to actually spend more money, and visa is now affirming that a firm, uh, okay, so uh, let's see here, airdrop sucks yeah.

I have a lot of problems with airdrop. Do you think tesla's not letting you in the fsd because of your influence? No, i think it's because i don't drive enough miles uh, i i don't think they manually go in there and like oh influencer, let's disable their fsd potential or whatever i just. I think i just don't drive enough, you know if i drive an average of a thousand miles a month. Somebody else drives 10 000 miles a month.

You're gon na get 10x the data uh you know, but then again i make the argument that well i drive more if you gave me beta, but you know that's uh, that's not the way it works. Kevin uh, thanks for being here, gaspad yeah people are spending more on aussie. Are you saying it's time to buy peloton? I don't know about that. My music card is exhausted.

Oh man, uh visa almost up 10 right now. This is great. This is excellent. Solar edge.

Five percent probably moving on those uh enphase earnings because they are also an inverter company tesla dumped them as an inverter company, uh tesla, four percent: let's go some of the comeback uh. I added tesla yesterday backed holdings 255 to the downside, boeing 8.3. To the downside. Wait where was spotify, i thought spotify was that a glitch? No, it's still down about five percent, but it is recovering nasdaq.

Look at this straight up. Folks come on man come on. I want to see those qqq calls start printing because so far they haven't been so far. They've been a little bit of a vacuum cleaner.

It's all right, uh i'll, just share one quick data point with you says alfred from visa. We recently looked at restaurant spending by various strata and the highest performing strata in terms of growth is the 100 to 300 ticket. The second best performing strata was over 300 holy crap, so that gives you some sense about the very recent data of affluent being back in the market and not afraid to spend. Let's go, you know i used to spend uh three to five hundred dollars, a ticket uh, probably four times a week hanging out with my friends.

Now i get to save that money, so i guess we get to. I guess we're gon na see visa spending go down next quarter because of the knife in my back um. Let's see here, uh look at the cross border. Let's see here, okay, that's boring, okay.

What what else can we search for so pricing? Uh data spend spend? Maybe uh spend would be good. Uh. Okay, us payment volume volume relative to three years ago has been stable, strong now for four quarters in a row. Looking at specific credit saw greater than 10 percentage point improvement in three year index for travel retail food.

That's interesting! Uh, greater than 10 improvement for travel retail foods, drug across all products spend categories represented. Okay. This is more of the intro one. More commentary, affluent q2 affluent card spend was well above 2019 levels.

So it's the well - and this makes sense - remember it's poor people are the ones that get hit by inflation. Spend my money in rust, yeah i got ta get some more rust skins now moving to netflows commercial payment. Okay! What's more, this recovery relative to broad base spend types business to business, carded, blah blah blah all right come on uh. This is just talking about some of their new ventures.

Debit card spending remained resilient as credit card continued to improve in china, china they're. Actually, that is surprising to me uh oh interesting uh, and i just see a note here that boeing also ended up finally dealing with supply chain issues because of the ukraine issues, because last quarter they talked about not having so many supply chain issues now because of Ukraine, they are okay, sorry about that back to uh visa here. So let's see anything else, i mean we've got a pretty good idea here. Cross border spend up 11 april u.s april.

Spend growth versus three years ago was up 45 holy smokes credit up. 37. E-Commerce spend both domestic and cross-border wow. This is this is quite unexpected.

Uh look at this e-commerce spend both domestic and cross-border has remained strong and stable relative to 2019, as well as pre-cover trend line, even as the pandemic effects fade, and we are assuming. This will continue: wow, that's bullish for ecom very cool. Do i like to see that okay yeah? That was the spend that any changes in spending behavior? We talked about that? Okay, yeah! That's pretty good! I have to say that's pretty good um visa reporting, false numbers lol. I use my credit card to buy stuff.

Then i use my debit card to pay. My credit card off single spend recorded twice um interesting, salty's options, tesla only first day as a course. Member welcome aboard thanks for joining. I like how your name's, salty salty here, so that's an extra tesla stock or two per week you win best comment of the day.

See we got ta, look at the bright side, all the money we're saving. Now we could use to buy tesla stock uh, not just test. We get, we got ta, we got ta. I i'm gon na i'm gon na be buying some other stocks um.

I really want to. I really want to buy the dip on some that have fallen substantially over the last three to four months, and so i've got uh in the background. I'm working on uh some some really cool analyses on on which ones those are going to be. So i'm really excited about that uh.

If you want to learn more about those, we'll probably be talking about those uh towards the end of the week or next week and the course member uh lives and if you haven't joined those yet uh make sure you check those out uh go check out the Programs for building your wealth link down below it's all about long-term wealth, especially, most importantly i'd, say the real estate market right now you want to prepare for that. Real estate market learn everything you can about the real estate market and uh yeah check that out in the description down below right next to the link for ftx uh, where, if you do trade crypto, you should consider using trading views technical analysis tools, uh with your Crypto trades, a little bit of a pullback right now looks like uh yeah. Look at that uh tesla here, pulling back a little bit after the morning purchases uh same thing with qqq. I expect some volatility throughout the day here and phase doing uh.

You know coming back to about that 175 level. Look at that! That's almost a perfect bounce over here on uh on our 176 line. That's interesting! Yeah! We have a line here: 176.65, almost a perfect bounce right there uh. I i expect today to be pretty zigzaggy uh.

I do hope, though, that uh beyond this market, open by the dipping the market's pulling off here, i really do hope. We end up staying above the zero percent fib that that's going to be quite critical. Okay, so uh market break even stable, 10-2 stable see what else we have here in terms of news. Let's see here, renault sells russia stake for run.

Rupal is that serious renault sells russia steak for run rupal i mean that's like that's like a penny: okay, uh huh apples, huge buyback, needs to come with a beat. Some talk here on what the suits are saying. Let's see what the suits are saying, though, about the market: okay, exhausted bond investors lean bullish on treasuries yeah, we've seen that as the 10-year yield has fallen, prices have gone up the bond market. Inflation is important for stocks and big tech, dip buying and earning speeds.

By microsoft, visa, among others are offsetting disappointing results from google, helping the s p rebound today. Visa and chipotle offered good news on the consumer, but chipotle's sales and margin guidance. Also, assuaged investor concerns on inflation, as the restaurant chain has raised, prices to cover high beef, avocado and wage costs, visa spending held up even with rising inflation, omicron and the suspension of operations in russia. Inflation and higher prices also benefited some prices, be it energy or grain.

Inflation is also paying playing a role in some of the biggest markets. Decliners capital. One is under pressure from higher market expenses and juniper from supply chain constraints, as well as boeing slum as inflation outweighed dreamliner progress, consumer spending, lifting from food to motorcycles to stocks. Signs of robust consumer health continue to roll in yeah.

That might ease investor worries about u.s stocks in the face of higher interest rates. The latest earnings beats just since tuesday's close visa and chipotle. We just talked about those but also harley davidson, uh, mondelez and kraft all topping expectations. Consumers are also buying something else.

Stocks, monday's net retail investor purchases of 1.6 billion, that's uh, yeah right before the dip there yesterday were significant and we're one of the highest buying days for etfs. Retail investors also bought uh 80 million dollars of tesla, though not enough to outweigh institutional selling. That is quite interesting. You know i i i it's hard to know exactly when to buy more goog but hey you know: goo got uh at 2300, i'm not i'm not offended.

Let's just say i'm more offended by the fact that we're getting a little bit of these red candles here - i i don't want to see more. I don't want to see any red today, i'm i'm tired of red tare. I know all right what else russia's gas wakes up foreign traders boring for now the market looks worse than the economy. Let's go that's a great title.

You know, if you think about it, who remembers uh, let's see here, who remembers where? Is it oh gosh? What was it uh? There was a meme, oh yeah, yeah yeah. It was this one. Okay, no i mean this was this was one of the ones that you had seen this one right here. Uh, remember this: you got like the kid happily swinging.

Meanwhile, you got this massive disaster in the back, so like we got, ta mean this, but in 2020 the kid on the swing was the stock market and the flames were the economy. That's now reversed. The kid on the swings is the mar, like the economy and the flames. Are the stock market like if you think about it? It's like the most crazy reversal, but this makes sense overnight.

Equity bounce is nice and all, but ultimately it says more about volatility than it says about. The merits of the market indices are as diverse as the nasdaq and the russell posted close new closing lows on tuesday uh each fits the popular 20 drawdown definition of the bear market uh. Ultimately, questions revolve around what's driving price action. This week's turn in yield suggests that angst has pivoted somewhat from inflation to growth, with china serving as a proximate catalyst for these worries drilling down to the u.s.

It's perhaps unsurprising that the sectors of econ of the economy most acutely impacted by inflation, such as housing and retail, are showing the most disappointing data trends. For now, though, others remain pretty robust. Now, that's interesting because i know housing is getting hit. I'm not seeing the negativity on retail trends that they're talking about oh retail and wholesale okay.

Well, that makes sense. Uh, that's separate from personal and household spending sector. I see interesting uh, okay, so i run a sniper style options. Call strategy.

Would you mind doing a video? Oh that's kind of interesting. I want to know more about it. Tag me in discord. Let's talk about it, you know i like yesterday, i spent a little a little bit of time going through all the tags.

So if you tag me and discord at me, kevin that's a great thing. The matrix it's funny, yeah matterport, has definitely gone down all right, so any thoughts on uso yeah. I mean i'm not a big fan of investing in in oil, but i will look at it. I wonder where the retrace has been sitting.

Do i have retrace up on these 38 retrace uh. I remember wanting to short it if it came back to 78 percent. It never did so. I shorted zim instead uh ross and uh another good friend of mine in person.

Uh robert uh, we're not very happy about that uh. It got hit pretty hard after that div distribution, though oh well, that's all right! Uh look at end phase powering up today, 15 now holy shmolies, i mean really. They had some incredible earnings. Uh now i sold my end face at close to 200 uh.

I still have concerns over how housing is going to affect solar but uh. I still love the company, don't get me wrong: uh yeah, just housing markets. I don't know man tbd uh, although hey. If the tenure comes down, that's gon na help offset some of the pain on the mortgage market side.

In fact, we should look at mortgage rates quickly, let's see what we got. So if we go to a mortgage calculator, they were like over five percent. Yeah see four point: eight, eight percent. It's come down slightly.

I mean not let like two tenths of a percent. Actually makes a difference. Actually it's more like one, no 15 basis points not like that really makes a difference, but paypal thoughts, yeah. You know i want to see paypal's earnings today read my last comment.

I beg of you uh, it says bars. That's your last comment. Is bars if i finish the day in the red, i will cry myself to sleep you're right uh, please speak about safu of brian lunch. I have no idea what you're talking about mr singh.

Literally no idea when is kevin, buy meta. I hate meta man. I hate it uh before that. Oh, i think you're talking about your hidden co.

I don't know why youtube hid this. Oh it's because you talked about sucking your peen okay. Why must the fed make the market red if he choose to make it green? I may even let him yeah yeah. That's that's interesting.

Cole youtube hid that. I wonder why. Okay all right, let's see what else we got here and other news. So we talked about bill.

Huang talked a little bit about tesla, google and phase. What about bridgewater so ray dalio and his company uh they have an executive, rebecca peterson has a message for the federal reserve it's time to get even more hawkish. You know. I think these people are short in the market.

Hardcore markets are discounting that you're going to have inflation, not back down to two percent, but around three percent over the next three years, and that's with a lot of fed tightening uh. The question is: is that enough to get inflation where uh? It should be? We think it's not peterson is the type of market veteran who central bankers listen to based on her reputation for making calls in a career. That's taken her from cub reporter at a local newspaper in florida to the right-hand side of raydalio. Oh, that's: cool, ray dalio's, fed advisory committee.

That's a job! You could be on a fed advisory committee for a business. That's that's cool! You can join the fed quite interesting. All right, so ray dalio's team is a little bearish, so where's our one. We just lost our one percent there on the qqq.

Look at that uh dropping again a little bit here. Tesla! Look at that 893.. It's just hard to keep it up. You know market's having a hard time needs.

Uh needs to take a pill, a chill pill. Uh but yeah anyway, all right, so i think that's pretty good check out ftx our sponsor for the video in the link down below. Look at that. What's up with right, when i want to close out you get another sharp closing stick here.

You know we just have to close the stream really quickly and then and then it'll go back to green uh and uh check out ftx link down below check out the programs, i'm building your wealth down below all about long-term wealth. Most popular bundle by the way is the stocks and site group bundled with the real estate investing course uh and then uh almost got a new lecture batch set ready for the wealth path path course, which will be very exciting as well. Thank you so much and we'll see you soon. Bye,.