Hey everyone welcome back to another market, closing live stream. We've got a lot of earnings to cover today. It's gon na be a big big big earning session. Uh excited to talk to you all about it.

Uh today's been crazy day on multiple fronts. Uh excited, though, for the market, i do think that the market is uh self self, implicating and self fulfilling a recession, and so that's why the title of this video is this. Is the recession uh now i know that sounds crazy, because it's like wait a minute. Kevin gdp is still high right, but see one of the things that's so unique about this sort of market is that our market prices things in way way in advance compared to how things used to be priced in, and it's because we've become so j-power sensitive.

Now that sounds extreme like why would we be jerome powell sensitive? Well, let me make it very clear for you back in 1987 and 88, when the federal reserve bailed out the stock market uh because of substantial declines in the stock market over a very short period of time and the federal reserve, bailed out markets and said: hey We'll provide liquidity, all they had to do was say, we'll provide liquidity and all of a sudden what happened markets rebounded. The crisis of 87.88 was over somewhere around october 87.. That crisis ended because the fed opened their mouth and started talking. So this set a standard: when did the crisis of the dot-com bubble end? Well, let me make that simple for you.

It ended in q1 of 2003 after two years and a quarter so a little more than two years. This stock uh market bubble of uh, the 2000's, the tech bubble ended. The crash ended uh because the feds said: hey we're going to accommodate the market, we'll lower rates, we'll accommodate the market uh. The same thing happened actually in 1994, which we didn't even talk about, but it wasn't as severe so most people don't recognize that and talk about that, so we've got 87 to 88 got got 94.95.

We've got uh the 2003 bailout, then in 2008. What do we get when does the market bottom? Not when lehman brothers goes bankrupt, not when there's peak fear? No, that's not when lehman brothers goes bankrupt or when the stock market bottoms out the stock market doesn't even bottom out when congress says hey we're gon na uh. You know support uh support banks with uh the troubled assets relief program with uh. You know 700 billion dollars or whatever the bailout was at the time seven eight nine hundred billion dollars, something like that effect nope.

That's not! When the market bottomed out the market bottomed out. When the federal reserve said, we will provide up to one trillion dollars of liquidity and help prevent uh this uh great recession from getting worse what happened in 2018, when uh, we had the taper tantrum of interest rates going up to about two and a half percent Tenure to about three percent, what happened then? Well? What happened is the federal reserve right around december 18th to 22nd said: hey we're gon na not raise rates as much anymore. We're good things have tightened enough. So what happened? The market bottomed and you turned so, if you're looking for an opportunity to to like really go like all in and not have some form of other reserve.

The rest, in my opinion, always comes out when the federal reserve. U turns to the positive not to the negative. We've talked about that a lot now uh. Where do we stand now? Well, where we stand now, is the market positioning to price in a recession, because we no longer react to oh, no we're in a recession.

We react to the federal reserve and jerome powell. This is why, on this channel, we study the federal reserve when the federal reserve is not happy. The stock market is not happy every single time and the negative u-turn started in about february mid february of 2021, and so i believe the pain of the recession is actually now being priced in to the stock market uh, whether or not we have a recession and Whether or not the recession is even a big deal because think about it. A recession could literally be negative.

A half percent of growth for two quarters year over year. Comps are too high: q4, q1, 2022 to 2023, because we're comparing to uh, you know q4 or 2021.. What happens well great you're in a technical recession? Okay, so you have a soft little recession, yay woo, and then you move on and you build out from there. But because our markets move so much in sync with the federal reserve, this is the kind of market uh that is clearly signaling to us uh.

We will price in all the pain that we can right now. We will flee to safety before we need to uh flee to safety and uh and and uh. What what do you see when that happens? Well, you see equities fall uh. Not only do you see, equities fall, but you see uh uh bonds, uh, uh bond pricing, uh, actually um rise as people flee to bonds.

Take a look at what's happening in the bond market. Let's see here, bonds right now, we're sitting at uh yeah still sitting at under 2.75 on the tenure right now, we're way off way off the uh uh three percent figure where we were and where we talked about heading to for a while. We're way off that already uh you've got uh, obviously uh crypto and uh risk assets, ethereum bitcoin uh everything down about four to five percent uh tesla. We made a video talking about uh, what's going on with uh tesla and the twitter deal and the potential for margin, and so on and so forth.

It's it's terrible, and it's also happening on a day that the nasdaq is down three point: five percent, which is extreme three point. Five percent i mean anything with a beta of two is going to be to the nasdaq. It's gon na be down seven percent. Today, it's a horrible day: uh tesla's beta, is about two, but you've got about an extra four percent of pain in there because of uh uh, the uh, the twitter fiasco, but uh yeah i mean arkamoto, oh geez, uh down 13.

I mean this is just an evaporation of valuations. Now, what's really kind of interesting is you've got some phenomenal uh companies and and phenomenal uh earnings where now uh is the time that yes, andre you are correct. Now is the time where you can actually not in the short term. You know short term calls are just going to evaporate.

Uh. Now is the time that you uh, you could potentially build substantial long-term wealth by actually investing in uh, this style of market uh, or at least when, when it when maybe we, we show signs of bouncing off of something uh it'd be nice to be able to Bounce off something see right now we're we're on the minute candlestick sitting below the zero percent on the fib, which is pretty dang crazy. Given that uh, we have had one of those intraday falls below on march 14th, but those were some beautiful bounces to take advantage of uh and - and you know, look it's happened before we bounced off on feb 24th rally fall bounce little mini day rally. Maybe two days over here, depending if i get off average candlesticks bounce big rally straight back down.

So uh hey, you know it's a rough market. It is not easy at all. On top of that, you have uh. You have a lot of uh, a fear of of a full-on recession being priced in and that's what we're seeing just on investments, no matter where they are, and i don't think any industry is really going to uh uh be immune to this other than potentially well.

I mean, even even in the longer term i mean short-term trades like uh, you know, jumping into bonds, uh or or certain commodities, or that those could be short-term trades. If you're a trader, i think there's still opportunities there. I do wonder how the weed etf is moving today, let's check it out, so the weed etf doesn't have the h in it. Yeah look at that.

The weed etf is up today see it's it's like this is where you kind of get that flight to safety mode, it's bonds, and this like. If i do um uh, let's see what was um. Let's go to the 20-year oh yeah 10-year trash tlt yeah. So here's your tlt uh, which is your treasury.

I shorted this uh substantially along this ride, which is wonderful. I did close it out a little sooner uh than the bottom here, but yeah you're getting that recovery here. So you got flight to safety here, right stocks, wheat, let's see iau gold gold flat to slightly up right uh. This is it's very clear to me: uh that doesn't make it any less painful whirlpool, which is really surprising.

Uh they're one of the few things of green here, but otherwise everything red, specifically arcimoto carvana, dutch bros, even gosh. They were immune for so long, uh call lee jeez man. These are some crazy numbers, uh hud, 8 mining. What are they at now? What are they? Three dollars and 65 cents wow uh roku at 92 for roku.

Oh my gosh uh zillow's about to be under 40 again lucid, 17 bucks. Oh amc is also down 8 cloud flare, uh down to 90 bucks, almost back into the 80s uh roblox is um down. 7.4 percent shift is about to is going to go under a dollar here: carlos cardano at 83 cents, wow wow wow. What uh? What a riot uh writing? What do? We got blackberry, redfin, there's redfin.

We saw that downgrade the piper downgrade this morning, so they actually rebounded off the 11, where they were there's ark down about six percent, matterport, five dollars and eighty cents, just great companies at crazy prices, uh embryo 10.88 wow, that's another good one! Geez man, like you, could just make a list of things now. In fact, i'm gon na do that. Uh, i'm just gon na write down uh erj uh, honestly, like a redfin at these levels, is just absolutely insane. I love neo too man.

Neo is great uh, but i i won't invest in chinese companies, because i am worried about the chinese consumer more than the american consumer wow. What madness, rivie and i've always had concerns about lucid's. Finally, getting back to the levels where it's like, okay, you know you start getting much more interesting around your like spack levels: wow yeah shift, yeah, crazy, craziness craziness. That's all i could say it's craziness.

So anyway, uh okay, let's go ahead and prep for earnings and see what other kind of news we have. We do have earnings coming in uh. Eight minutes was the closing bell and then we've got uh a substantial set of earnings coming, and it's also possible that i mean if we get bad earnings here, it's gon na be a poop show all righty. Let's see here when do, i think small caps again after uh after everything else recovers uh.

When i see all these guys going on cnbc speaking super bearish, it makes me feel like the bottom's near. I know right yeah. That's that's! Actually a really good point. It's when, when all these people are freaking out, bottoms near y l, r, okay, okay, okay, if big tech companies miss nasdaq will head to 200 moving day, that'd be a disaster.

A deal entry point to get into tesla says someone yeah, i mean hey. If you could pick it up, i mean i thought under nine was great if you could pick it up under eight great yeah in five years. So no, oh, you guys are funny all right. Let me get the term up.

All right, u.s senate, confirms brainerd to fed vice chair white house announces that they do not expect a food shortage in the united states due to the invasion of ukraine. Explosions heard in moldovan region the ear ukraine sparked war worries and no kidding uh. Two men plead not guilty to criminal charges as they pose as federal agents. Oh, my gosh imposters imposters, all right, um yeah.

Let's look where the 200 is sell, ada and buy tesla. I don't know you know it depends how much diversification you want away from tess. Uh wow qq is now uh down about 3.6. This is a pretty bloody day.

Let's zoom out here 200 a move um two 200 day moving averages over here, yeah we're way below the 200-day moving average um yeah. I don't know what y'all what you're talking about in the chat spy? Oh spy's, almost at zero percent disaster, a weekly, oh, what's: okay, weekly moving average, oh ooh, 256. yeah! That's another 20 right there, oh yeah! That's that would be some gnarly pain and some gnarly marge calls yeah okay. So let's watch the market going into the close.

We got about four minutes to go and let's get earnings ready, i'm excited to see the earnings cause. There's nothing else to be excited about. Uh msft reports today, let's pull them up microsoft. Then we have google, see that beat on on youtube or not it'll, just everything and just miss general motors yeah, cmg chipotle mexican queer visa n face.

Oh, my gosh there's so many earnings today, texas instruments and few others pterodyne would be interesting paradigm, oh and wyndham. Oh, it isn't las vegas sands, too wyndham hotel, resorts and isn't sans today or was that yesterday. Maybe that already happened. Oh, let me see if i can pull up sans then uh, i'm not down on tesla.

I actually don't mind being down on like the stock tesla being down i'm down about getting stabbed in the back by who used to be my best friends uh. It's a rough day and people in comments say like kevin. Don't talk about people on your videos, i'm, like you, ain't my boss, all right two minutes to go: uh! Okay, good! So i've got all the earnings ready to go. This is the market needle life alert pendant, probably uh market is falling into the close uh qqq slipping further into the close, as we await earnings we have uh, or that was spy rather qqq.

Also, though, falling on additional volume here, sarah looks unhappy. Um yeah selling off into the clothes uh-huh, let's uh, let's see what they're saying here, while we prep for earnings, we appreciate you joining us wells, fargo investment institute with stocks at session lows down 770 on the dow right now yeah. I wouldn't name people you're right, blah internals. Oh it's pretty lopsided, as you would imagine to the downside.

Sarah, so really not a lot of refuge, not quite 90 of all the new york stock exchange volume to the downside. Some people look at that as a threshold of a real washout, but it's it's pretty close, as you can see it's more like uh, seven to seven to one uh declining to advancing volume. What kathy wood, just tweeted, equities and bonds seems to be warning. The fed that it's a policy measure should create an economic financial crisis, equities are swooning and the yield curve is nearly negative.

Oh did the yield curve just invert again or near. Let me look because we were 18 basis points away earlier. Another metric suggests that fed policy is already too restrictive. The dollar against expectations, the dollars increased more than 13 from its low last year, a real burden for emerging in other markets, with dollar denominated debt and a powerful deflationary force.

Uh huh tend to no it's set 23 basis points, but okay um, i mean she's not right about the market screaming at the fed. I mean she's. Not. I should excuse me she's not wrong about that.

That's exactly what's happening. The market's pissed. Look at that right below our zero percent. Folks, it's a bad day.

Somebody just donated twenty dollars. Thank you so much that uh is greatly appreciated on a day like today, not even so much because of stock valuations, just because it's a shitty day all right. Let's listen to the calls from alphabet and microsoft in moments: consumer discretionary is the worst part of the market that is going to do it. For me here on closing bell dao going out with a decline of more than 800 points.

I will send it into overtime. Does that say black women in a.i and it's a white lady on the left, i'm pretty sure. That's what it just said. Yeah see look at that boston, black women in artificial intelligence, and it's like, oh, i didn't show it.

Oh no! I didn't have the bell thing. I'm sorry about that yeah it was this white lady is, is swinging the hammer at the stock exchange and behind her is a banner. It's like black women in a.i and like photos of black women and i'm like. Where are they to ring the bell anyway? Well, they're not allowed to ring the bell.

Okay, stop talking kelly um anyway, uh, okay. So let's uh, let's do earnings! Oh man, uh uh, i described because you mentioned how much you play it paid one. I don't know that i've ever said how much i paid one of my employees uh. Let me put it this way: uh anytime i've ever offer or been asked to give a raise i've, given it uh.

You know i probably all in, and this would be like with other compensation. It probably saved, like 500 grand losing two people in a year. You know all considered travel payroll taxes, insurance, microsoft, reporting's in microsoft, comes in with two dollars and 22 cents. It is a slight beat on revenue: 49.4 billion.

The estimate was 49.04 uh, that's a beat on the top line. Intelligent cloud beat 19.05 bill estimate 18.9 bill. Personal computing revenue beat 14.52 bill versus 14.33 expected productivity revenue, 15.79 slight beat versus the 15.78 expected unsure. What the eps projection was: uh apple, i'm sorry, uh, google's out uh google miss google eps comes in at 24.62 percent uh.

I'm sorry dollars versus the estimate of 25.71. Google ad revenue beat at 54.66 billion versus uh, oh gosh. These are a lot of numbers uh. This is google service revenue comes in at a slight miss google cloud operating loss comes in at a greater loss than expected about 40 million greater loss for the cloud division.

Other revenue, slight miss but services, revenues, advertising revenues up cloud revenues up margin came in better than expected: 30 versus 28.8 uh. This is let's look at goog here. That's an eps miss again on goog, though it's playing flat right now youtube ads revenue, 6.87 billion dollars. Google authorized buyback of 70 billion dollars that, just across the tape, 70 billion dollar buybacks authorized.

These companies have so much cash. Now they're. I think they're going to try to pad uh minor little misses with with just buybacks no gm, yet uh, no chipotle. Yet no visa yet no end phase.

Yet texas instruments comes in with a very bad forecast forecast for q2 expected to be a midpoint of 4.5 uh. I'm sorry expected to be 4.96, almost five dollars and they're coming in with four point. Five texas instrument drops eight percent after uh missing estimates. That's a not great for uh texas instruments.

There we have uh more on microsoft, microsoft's eps beat by four cents, so microsoft had a top line. Bottom line beat no forecast from uh, microsoft and sort of mixes in between uh alphabet uh, which we have right here down two percent right now, uh 70 billion dollars in buybacks doesn't appear to be moving the stock and no forecast from uh from from google. I think i mean microsoft. There, that's google, with the 70 billion dollars, uh; okay, no, no results yet from the others.

Oh did i answer naoh? Oh maybe i did uh ford launches their f-150 lightning ev. Oh nice, uh texas instruments beats on q1, but again a miss on forecast. Google's advertising revenue is 10 billion dollars more. No, oh.

They they mistyped it i'm sorry they totally mistyped it. Okay, goo cloud revenue. There we go: okay, yeah! That's that seemed crazy. Would that be right? No, i don't know what it is.

Oh, their total revenue. I don't know they just retracted it and reposted it anyway. Uh now it says no, that was their ad revenue. That's interesting anyway, ad revenue, 10 billion dollars more than a year ago.

Google cloud revenue about 1.8 billion dollars more than a year ago. Oh huge huge increases in uh in earnings here, but the stock market doesn't care the stock market's. Like give me the earnings and i'm getting out, look at that google go qqq drop, another half percent microsoft tesla, another half percent. In the after hours, gm gm comes in with eps of 2.09.

The estimate was 1.68. That's a beat earnings guidance, uh reaffirmed going forward. Wow reaffirming guidance, that's actually good uh. They are beating on full year, adjusted eps expecting 6.25 to 7.25.

Coming in at 6.5 to 7.5 general motors q1, adjusted eps 2.9 cents versus the 168 estimate, really good. Yeah alphabet's revenue grew 23 percent, still falling no chipotle, yet visa is coming out now. End phase and phase beats end phase margin. 41.

Let's go uh en phase energy, 441 million of revenue versus 433 expected that's a beat forecast comes in hot uh forecast was about 480 mil in revenue, and the forecast now is 490 to 520. Let's go that is a good. That's a triple beat on end phase. There it is end phase eight percent look at that triple beat on end phase uh.

The texas texas instrument falls after forecast pterodyne, not yet windham, not yet. I want visa okay, visa adjusted eps 1.79 billion versus 1.65 expected. That's a beat net revenue, 7.2 billion. That's a beat over the 6.83 expected.

These are good earnings, more transactions, processed higher margins, google has higher margins and faces higher margins. Uh uh end phase beats the forecast. Visa beats the forecast uh. Oh sorry, visa beats uh on rev; rather they have not given forecast.

Yet i don't know that they will uh. Google didn't give a guide either yeah end face, kick and butt hmm chipotle waiting for chipotle no guide from visa and phase up eight percent - hmm, no windham! Yet that's the next one. I think wyndham is oh. 4.

30. That's why all right, so that's going to take a bit so windham is going to be a bit. So it's really chipotle. Now that we're waiting for and chipotle comes out in one minute, one minute: let's go quantum scape uh, they do report today as well.

I i mean we don't actually expect earnings out of them. They're still, you know r d right, nothing yet from quantum scape windows, oem revenue up 11 cloud revenue for services of 29 xbox content and services up 4 surface revenue up 13 linkedin revenue up 34 net 16.7 billion return, 12.4 billion to shareholders and repurchases and dividends. Microsoft, chairs down 2.6 percent. This is a stupid market man.

These are really good uh. You know. Even i mean google cloud revenue b, google, it's the eps that missed by almost yeah by a little more than a dollar ten percent on end phase, general motors higher forecast than expected sees 13 billion to 15 billion versus the expectation of 12.3 billion chipotle comp sales Up nine percent beating the estimate of seven point: eight six percent, chipotle adjusted eps beats by three cents at five dollars and seventy cents revenue comes in at two billion, which is about 10 million dollars less than expected. Uh, that's the is that the adjusted rev q1 rev q1 rev.

They wrote it twice here. I think no, maybe they just mistyped it that time come on bloomberg, get with it comparable sales up nine percent, that's great excitedly, calling out earnings! Uh reminds you the good old days, meta's, probably going down with google q2 payment volume by visa meets expectations, but they did process more transactions yeah. That forecast is great on end phase: okay, good good and yeah; okay, so we just hit. We hit microsoft, google, gm chipotle, visa and phase texas instruments.

Chipotle earnings beat us customers paid more helping, offset higher costs more inflation, uh yeah. Thank you, moto yeah. No, these earnings don't look like uh. These are not recessionary earnings.

You know it's just the market's having a little tantrum because it's just fed uh. It's not wrong, though, like everything in this game is about the fed and this they've ruck pulled us twice. You know they rug pulled us in january and then they rug pulled us. Last week you know it's uh, it's it's really annoying to listen to them because they just keep changing their minds.

Oh well, tesla closed down. 12. Today, i'm fed up with the fed you and me both wow what a day, what a day, hmm all right, i'm just seeing what other info we have. Let's see here so stop.

Russia threatens to cut poland gas supply commodity currencies retreat as ruble wins bottle, will 2022 become 2015 again for the yuan. Okay, well, we'll catch up on that later, foreign currencies and then elon's tweeting about raptor rockets elon's. Now clarifying matching free speech should match the law. I mean duh, hmm uh.

I think there's a no a tesla note in here. I'm trying to find it. Where is it? Oh, okay, yeah and i have multiple pieces of of this edward harrison. Guy writing the tesla's uh next at worst at risk large cap tech stock to fall and uh.

That, combined with the elon fears, made for good timing on that article, uh yeah, elon tweeting, that he's not selling any shares, probably would happen if he actually weren't selling shares, but maybe he is passing out pain, pills, shots who wants to go drinking? I just lost my friends, so i need new new friends who wants to be my friend. That's okay. You know it was a survivable backstab. I'm still here just missed my lungs.

Hmm kimball musk is tweeting about bots on twitter, okay and then let me see if kathy would mention anything else. No, no further tweets from kathy and yeah. It's interesting how tesla slides tesla's valuation fell 110 billion dollars over fear that uh elon might sell. You know 21 billion dollars worth seems legit all right, cool all right.

Folks, thanks for being here, i hope you still enjoy the live streams. Let me know.