Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open, live stream, first of all, uh seriously. I want to mention that i've missed all of you, the market sucks right now and uh. Quite frankly, i've got a very clear choice. I've got uh this very uh choice that i can make every single day, and that is to just stick my middle fingers up at the market and not really care about what's happening and wake up.

Whenever i want - or i could be, you know here at 5, 55 a.m or even earlier, because usually when i do market open lives, i'm up sometimes an hour or two hours before to study. What's going on in the market to be here with you and i'm choosing to be here with you, maybe you don't like me. Maybe you disagree with me, but here's the thing you're always going to get from me is the truth and my opinion about. What's going on and cool thing is, if i ever change my mind, uh you'll know oftentimes uh immediately, which is uh the beautiful beautiful thing about youtube.

Is we have this opportunity to be uh totally transparent, uh and honest, so uh, i'm here for you, this market sucks and uh, let's get to talking about uh, what's going on uh, the first thing that i'm actually gon na do is i'm gon na start with A little bit of good news and it's a little bit of good news that was somewhat buried in most media publications. Today, i i kind of sometimes think that media wants to perpetuate uh negativity, but then again that sounds redundant, uh media negativity. So the good news that came out this morning actually had to do with business morale. In germany, business morale rose in germany.

In april, the ifo business climate index came in at a read of 91.8 beating expectations of 89.1. We also had uh expectations on current conditions. For 95.8, as a consensus that came in at 98.2 uh the uh leaders of the ifo report, the economist there suggested that the german economy uh is robust in the face of uncertainty. However, that 70 - and this is very similar to what we're experiencing here - 75 percent of companies - are reporting problems with supply chains and that the german economy is stabilizing but stabilizing to the low side.

Now remember: europe has frequently had issues with too little inflation uh compared to the united states, so we're ahead of them inflationary concerns, but uh. What they do mention is that conditions and services have significantly improved that construction is at the lowest level. It's been since 2010. However, business conditions and services rising substantially to the point where, certainly they don't see a recession in q1, they don't see any indications of recession in q2, but then they leave the door open for q3 and 4 so tbd.

They also mentioned that three-fourths of all retailers want to raise their prices and the big thing weighing on markets today are uh more lockdowns in china. The chinese stock market's down somewhere in the neighborhood of uh, five percent and uh. The shanghai lockdowns uh have obviously been hurting. They uh the even these ifo economists over in germany suggest the same thing, uh and so you're, seeing some of those issues reverberate through the economy as well as well.

Some other developments, such as the fact that uh the front page of the financial times today says that putin believes that talks are quote at a dead end and uh. Vladimir putin has quote a lost interest in peace brokering. This is at least according to three individuals. Familiar with uh, what's in putin's head, which nobody ever knows what's actually going on in there, but anyway uh the the uh one of the the things later mentioned in the financial times piece on putin was that putin's really trying to figure out how to still be A winner uh in this disastrous war, uh most think that's going to involve taking control of uh, certainly the eastern regions uh, maybe the southeast on boss, whatever, but potentially as far as the entire southern coast of ukraine, russia has obviously given up on kiev the capital There are also now fires at russian oil facilities potential rockets from ukraine going straight into russia, so at the same time as you've got these massive inflationary fears and these chinese shutdowns that are exacerbating supply chain issues.

You've got more tension in ukraine, though you actually did have oil moving down slightly this morning, let's see last i looked, oil was uh. Okay, yeah wti was just under 98, it's sitting at 97.41 right now. The uh fascinatingly we've also seen the bond market react uh. If you take a look at the 10 year, it's dropped almost a full 10 basis points.

Today, it's sitting at 2.814. I think that is going to be a temporary reprieve in the 10-year, which could short-term be good for real estate uh. The reason i think that's a temporary reprieve is because the stock market is so uh red. Today, you've got a little bit of this.

This flight to safety happening what happens when you see a really red stock market. As you can see, individuals move over to the bond market, they buy bonds and what happens when they buy bonds? Well, then, the yields go down uh. So you can see this. You could also sometimes see short covering in the bond market.

A lot of individuals shorting. The bond market on flight to safety days, we can sometimes see some of those shorts unwind. When you see shorts unwind. What do you do you buy right? That's that's what happens so uh big numbers coming out this week as well.

We've got alphabet. Facebook, amazon apple reporting earnings this week, we've got the gdp results for q1 coming out on thursday. You also have the employment cost index coming out this week and that's a big number that the fed looks at that most most people don't but the fed does. You know: we've been showing broad-based wage pressure here we have the next release.

You could write this down as a catalyst. It's april, 29th 8 30 a.m. Eastern time, and so expectations are that uh we're going to continue to see broad-based wage pressure here. A lot of reports that uh inflation may have actually peaked in march, but uh that does this a little good when the federal reserve says you know what we don't really care if we've peaked we're just going to go hawk mode here, uh until uh.

Until we start getting inflation under control, which is also very interesting because the economist ran this piece uh that was just in their uh magazine uh like uh, i think it was in yesterday's issue uh and uh. The piece was called the fed that failed and they complained about how uh, now one-fifth of americans believe inflation is the most important problem facing the country that the fed has failed to stop inflation, that, even though it's peaked or potentially we're still substantially far off from Two percent and their concern is that this is really important, because in order for you to get inflation down, if inflation does uh tend to be more persistent, then you really have to go above the neutral rate of two to two and a half percent uh. But with how high inflation is, they believe that you might actually have to see the federal reserve raise rates not to two to three percent, but right, which is roughly where the federal reserve wants to go. But instead you might have to raise rates fed rates somewhere to five to six percent, which is a level that we haven't seen since 2007, uh and uh, that that would move us then above the uh average annual inflation rate, so uh.

Now this this unfortunately reiterates their uh their thesis that the federal reserve has never had a quote soft landing with inflation, this out of control so uh, you know the only two real soft landings we've got were 1984 uh, i'm sorry 1985 and 1994.. Now, interestingly, both of those occurred in the post-volcker era - uh most individuals, of course, referring to the volcker era as something that that will happen again. What's great, though, if there's any good news about the market now is that you've you've actually got, i would say, you're you're in how should we phrase this? You have different things happening now than you did in the late 70s and 80s, see in the late 70s and 80s inflation expectations were running away. Why were they running away? Because individuals thought we were going back to wheelbarrows of cash? We were going back to the weimar republic days of uh post-world war, one germany where, in other words, uh cash became completely worthless and uh.

That was a there was a real fear that was happening in the late 70s in the early 80s. And this is why inflation expectations were completely out of whack. Now, if you look at inflation expectations today, they're stable, they're, stable, but they're high, and so this is obviously leading the fed to be a bit aggressive here. Last week we saw sarah eisen pressure to fed uh, specifically jerome powell, to indicate hey, like you need prices and stocks to be lower right and we pretty much got a everything but a yes on that, one which uh yeah not so great.

However, uh i do want to report that the five year break even on the treasury market, is at the lowest point that we have seen at about the last seven weeks. We have now fallen below 3.31, i'm sorry below 3.32. We were at about three point, uh three point: three: two percent back on march fifth and we've now fallen below that uh, that's uh, that's a solid seven weeks ago, uh! This is really good because we have, we have seen inflation expectations run substantially past that uh, and this coming back down of inflation expectations very very important and consumer inflation expectations are obviously very stable, as well uh, of course, that doesn't prevent any of the uh. The sort of bear analysts from making crazy predictions like morgan stanley's mike wilson, warning that the s p 500 is getting ready to go into a bear market yep.

Nobody likes that so uh, obviously uh we're gon na. Let's see we're gon na we're gon na grab. Some fibs here uh, let's see yeah still trying to redo the studio a bit over here, but we're gon na grab some phibis here, but anyway bear market territory will mean that uh, the s p 500, would be down about 20 uh from uh from all-time highs, Which the nasdaq briefly hit on uh march uh 14th and that was sort of our zero percent fib hit that low uh. We had a triple bounce off of that and that marked a really great buying opportunity.

Unfortunately, now uh it looks like we're kind of heading back in that direction, which is not spectacular but uh. Let's go ahead and take a look see if i can get this uh up here. Okay, uh, all right: let's hope it works. It does how wonderful, okay good my testing worked so uh.

Here's your spy, yeah! You can see our zero percent fib over here on the spy was when uh russia invaded and we've got some pretty strong supports over at the 23.6 for the spy, which is really 426. That's where we're sitting right now for the spy. Now, unfortunately, qqq's 23.6 got destroyed. You can see the the 23.6 right here at 338, absolutely destroyed uh, but we have not broken through a very, very critical threshold right here, which is this triple bounds which, in my opinion, is, is actually uh.

The sort of the the last hurrah we have to say, like there's still a chance, there's still hope, don't worry all hope is not lost yet uh. Now, what's very fascinating is i i want. I just want to remind everyone that if you go back and look at my videos between uh the the 21st and really the end of march here march 21st to the end of march, a lot of folks were saying this is it i got to go all In i got cash, i want to go all in. I want to go all in, and one of the big things that we had regularly talked about was that it doesn't make sense for the market to go straight up with the level of uncertainties that there are, and so we charted this, this uh sort of dip Right here, this sort of v shape right here now we had no idea when this v shape would come.

So we charted this v shape on the 23rd and we charted the market going from about the 50 retracement down to the 23.6 and then maybe rotating back up to uh, to about the uh 61 retracement line. Well, unfortunately, uh well, i mean the good news. Is it it? We ran further, we ran to about the 61 before falling right, but unfortunately, we've now broken that 23 6 line, so we were expecting this kind of fall. Unfortunately, it's falling a little bit further, and this is quite sad, but this extra fall here is probably because the federal reserve has come out more hawkishly than we've expected.

We really weren't expecting the federal reserve to go above two percent this year and we had uh one meeting in january, where the federal reserve decided to do nothing. And after january we had seven meetings in the year that we could have raised rates in and if we raised rates in those seven meetings, we would have gotten to a rate of about 1.75 to 2. Well, unfortunately, now jerome powell suggests that we should be closer to 2.5 by the end of the year. The problem with that is, you now have to come up with an extra quarter basis point in two meetings.

Well, if you add a quarter to an existing quarter, that means we are now pricing in for two 50 basis. Point hikes and jerome powell told us last week, and this is why we're getting this read today, that we are better off front loading that and doing maybe a 50 in may and june and then going to 25s for the rest of the year, because inflation is Higher now, that's that's obviously bad news for the stock market, but it's actually good news for inflation expectations, because folks, you have to remember the fed is all about inflation expectations and their yippie yappy crappy talk is actually working. Inflation expectations, like i mentioned, are now falling to uh to a lower level than we've had in the last seven weeks, and you could look at this by looking at the five year treasury break even uh. We are at the lowest level in the last uh seven weeks, so this is.

This is actually a really good thing. At the same time, we are seeing those energy prices come down as well right, so uh excellent, excellent to hear so uh it's it's. The government fault because of price gouging, i'd like to hear more about that one trader, jeff uh did i remodel studio. Well, it's i wouldn't call it remodeled.

I would call it uh destroyed and slowly getting pieced back together. So it's still in disaster mode. Uh thanks tracy for the shout out and have a good day hope you all have a great day as well. Okay, so we've also got some news on twitter woo.

Okay. How about i need to take a little sip of some monster first, because i'm i'm actually feeling good all right cheers so twitter. Here's the latest on twitter uh twitter is apparently growing more receptive to elon musk's 43 billion dollar offer now remember that twitter hired goldman sachs and jp morgan to advise them. Goldman sachs, ironically, had a 30 price target for twitter, which doesn't you know? Let's put it this way, it's kind of funny on social media to see people say.

Oh look: twitter hired a firm with a 30 price target to advise if 54.20 is a good deal or not, obviously that that seems a little ironic, but then, of course you have different departments and - and you could always get other departments involved and say hey like Can you reevaluate, like? Is this a good deal? Well, it looks like jp morgan and goldman must be telling twitter. That 5420 is actually a good deal, because now elon musk per the wall street journal has met with multiple twitter executives on sunday. This comes after elon. Musk says he has raised 46.5 billion dollars with a mix of debt and cash morgan, stanley and others are offering 13 billion in debt.

Financing 12.5 billion dollars are expected to come from loans against elon musk's tesla stock. This is probably like a line of credit. Not so terribly much like margin, but it is technically a form of margin, uh plus 21 billion dollars in equity. Financing, equity financing would be shareholder partners right, so other shareholders investing with elon musk, probably shareholders willing to invest anywhere between.

You know 10 to 100 million dollars each so that way he could keep that shareholder count to 2000 or or fewer. The new york times mentioned that uh, the 11-member twitter board negotiated over musk's offer through midnight. Oh my gosh, a late night for the twitter board. Wow, they actually did some work uh.

Also elon musk has tweeted that quote. If the twitter, our twitter bid, succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying uh and the new york times after their uh the sort of leaks that they got. Regarding the uh twitter board - and i know some people - don't like the tour - the new york times, but the reality is the new york times does also get leaks, which is kind of interesting uh, and they also got information here from elon musk. They got a whole.

They got a reply from elon musk. Listen to this, the new york times emailed elon musk, asking him about the twitter deal and elon musk responded with x, like literally the letter x period. That's it that's all he responded with, and he is also and now has formed the uh holding company x, uh, presumably to hold uh twitter. I think about a holding company is kind of like a berkshire hathaway anyway uh twitter reports, earnings on thursday and uh.

Who knows, maybe we'll have a either we'll either get more details then, or maybe we'll find out that a deal will be struck today, who knows uh then you've also got uh. You've got uh corvette, suggesting they're gon na make an electric corvette, but they're still going to have a gas version for those who want it. I hate to say it, but the guy looked like a total sleazebag on cnbc, because before the show was over after he was so excitedly talking about how we're gon na have an electric uh corvette and and that tesla better watch out, because we got hummers and Corvettes and all these things coming with the gm ultim battery technology uh after after his segment was over, he was kind of looking off like i did good right. It was.

It was ridiculous. I wish i could pull up the clip, but you'll just have to take my word on it. It just seemed ridiculous. Uh then uh on top of that we've got consumer spending, concerns that obviously consumers are going to switch to more service style spending, which of course, is expected to hurt uh consumer discretionaries in the stock market.

Even more and that's the last thing we need is even more pain, but i guess the way the cookie crumbles. Uh consumer spending is exactly what can either make or break a recession. Remember that the big quarter, in my opinion, that we've got to be most concerned about, is actually q4 q4. If uh, if people spend less than q4 this year than they did last year, then you got a recession uh now i mean two quarters of which, of course, but it wouldn't surprise me that was part of my original thesis in january.

However, my original thesis in january got turned upside down because rather than consumers actually spending less money because of a freaking war going on. Oh, no, no, no they're actually spending more money, it's pretty remarkable, so that was quite unexpected but anyway uh. Let's take a look at uh how some of these tickers are doing, uh yeah? Okay, so i also want to see. Let's see, i wonder if i could do this is this? Does this work nope, oh darn, nothing's off all right? Well, that's not going to work! Never mind oh well, look at the side of my head, so dwack is down to 38.55.

That comes after apparently donald trump was having issues pronouncing truth: social uh, that is at least a rumor. I have not seen the clip of that, but uh. That was that has been trending. We have uh, let's see overstock.com 32., oh my gosh wasn't overstock like way more.

Let's say: oh my gosh yeah. I remember when overstock was 100 bucks. That's right because somebody came on my channel talk about how great overstock was the things that 33 bucks. Oh my gosh, that's insane! Uh i mean it.

Some of the compression valuations is just honestly disgusting, but uh it. It really. I mean here's x bing. Let's take a look at x, bing, oh wow, x, pink, just uh.

What is it now? 23. 18. It's incredible! Look at that pinterest is under 20. I mean support lines, don't even matter like we could draw all the lines we want and they just they don't seem to matter in a bear market which makes sense you get a rotation out of mp material, which i do find is kind of interesting.

This uh, this sort of recent downtrend that we've had here on mp. It's been really straight down for uh mp, they've uh they've been quite a run. A ceo was on my channel and uh. I encourage you to watch the interview.

Actually, i think it's great uh great interview and uh very interesting company that interview uh took place back when the stock was trading for around. I believe 32 bucks, a share which is quite wild, uh, take a look at this roblox uh, bouncing along that zero percent. Fib uh: this is the same bounce that we had on march 14th. We are now there on.

Roblox is anything green. Today there are a couple things green today, let's see here, we've got uh. What is this centro? Very good. Very good food company is 35 cents.

Oh my gosh full on penny stock here tattooed chef sitting at uh 9.45 twitter is actually up 4.74 on hopium that we're going to get that 5420 deal done trading for right now, 51.25 coca-cola up one and a half percent seems like a little bit of a Flight to safety there hippo up fractionally, but still now penny stocks sitting at 170, actually not a terrible company uh, but uh boy, oh boy, just any anything profit less right! Now you can't touch it. You just can't touch. It doesn't mean they're, not good companies. It's just it's, you can't touch it uh, you need profit and growth, uh, really the only company that that just absolutely crushes everyone right now seems to be tesla in terms of growth, and that explains why we're having such a a rough time getting tesla to actually Break below the 967 level, which is the 50 retracement we've bounced off of this multiple times uh.

It's really a sign that uh you've got uh some serious bi dipping happening happening there every time it goes there. Let's listen in the gym. A little sell-off thursday's nasdaq man has a plan right, nina's, a plan. Look i i think twitter.

If you read his feed he's like the way it was supposed to be hey, it's fun. It's engaging! Maybe he'll answer you. Maybe he won't now. My twitter feed, on the other hand, reminds me very much of as if i were um, let's just say in some sort of uh concentration kit, which i don't have any desire to be in well, there's a lot of negativity.

Is that what you're saying a lot like? No i'm saying there's a lot of scatological comments. Now, i'm not alone, there are people who leave twitter all the time, because twitter allows remember twitter wants engagement. Okay did. Did we just hear jim cramer call his twitter feed a concentration camp? I think so that's quite odd, but also kind of an indication that there's nothing else to talk about uh.

Let's go ahead and jump on over to bloomberg and, let's see what bloomberg's got to say, let's listen in here is just going to be off the charts across the world right transportation and power generation. John are the two areas where we need to get carbon down dramatically. Eevee addresses the transportation and if you look at projections, you can just look at these sales. This year it used to be 1 million ev vehicles a year.

Now that's being done in a matter of months, so the production and the demand is going to expand considerably around the world, which is why tesla is uniquely positioned. They have production platforms in each region. Nobody else does just look at their ability to produce this quarter versus the traditional auto names which are not have not been able to make the move and then establish their supply chains for lithium, for copper, for nickel, the things that go into the batteries and so For semiconductors and so to me, uh, it's a different ball game and i'll just quote the morgan stanley analyst, who said you know when we look at twitter's recent results. Our concerns are for the ability of the rest of the industry to catch up.

In other words, chess yeah - i mean i was not expecting to jump over here to bloomberg and hear a tesla bull jumping in here, but one thing that he says, that's really valid is that uh tesla has has these facilities closer to where raw materials are spread. More diversified than probably any other manufacturer in the world, even so at this point, which is quite remarkable because you look at toyota, they used to make somewhere around 950 000 vehicles uh per year, i'm sorry per year, i'm sorry per month, 950 000 vehicles per month And uh now they're down to about 750 000, which is more than 20 decline, it's insane and uh. It really follows the uh, substantial uh supply crises that you have and the fact that tesla is not missing earnings during this sort of time. Absolutely insane! Imagine if we didn't have the supply chain issues nutty anyway uh.

I do want to shout out eric here eric says, driving to my firefighter job in the city of south lake tahoe and you're live, i love it. I've missed you kevin have a great morning. Thank you so much and uh. Thanks for what you do, i i was a police explorer and i was always i was always jealous.

I wanted to want to do more firefighter. Ride-Alongs. I've only ever done one uh and it was uh. It's really incredible.

Incredible work. Y'All do hard work so uh, okay, let's uh, let's see what else we have uh dokie here. So all right! Well, yes, yes, the market is poopy doopy, oh, but whatever they're gon na do you know you go through bear market times. I don't know, i'm not! I'm not as bearish uh but uh.

I know there's a lot of uh food, fear, uncertainty and doubt but uh, that's all right! So uh, let's see here, let's take a let's try to understand, maybe from the wall street journal what's going on in beijing. How about that we'll do that together here, so, let's jump in here, we've got uh. What do we have? We've got about six minutes until market open great, and this is a seven minute article - we're not going to only spend time on this. But let's, let's do give give it a little skimmy stoodle.

So, while residents of china's capital stocked up on essentials as fears of a city-wide lockdown crew - oh great, okay, who remembers march of 2020, not being able to find toilet paper um, it sounds like that's literally potentially now happening in uh in beijing. I uh, you know it blows my mind that they're they're still so wild over covered uh when uh when omicron has is shown to be so much more benign, obviously uh. It still substantially affects uh certain demographics, but boy, oh boy, what a difference from uh! Certainly from like delta or things like that, right, municipal officials mandated three rounds of man mass testing this week for uh chao, yang's three and a half million people following a surge into infections. 20.

Oh my gosh folks, oh my gosh folks. We got a surge in cases. Listen to this. We got ta test every of three and a half million individuals, because folks we have 29 positives.

Oh my gosh, that's eight more! That's eight! More than the previous 24-hour period. That's it we're going exponential here! Folks shut china down my gosh. I can't believe this is what's leading to this this. This is partially what's causing uh this i mean look at look at futures here on bloomberg s p down almost a half percent point: four: eight percent nasdaq point: four: five uh russell uh.

I missed it, but not good uh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, all right uh! So new cases and china's financial capital dipped uh to let's see this is more like it. 19. 000. 455.

On monday, shanghai's government said this is in the financial capital, so this would be shanghai, shanghai, obviously much more than that 28. In the other nationwide about 20 200 new cases, uh that's throughout china. Chinese health authorities are also have also announced 51 new deaths all in shanghai, bringing the total to 138. Since the first coveted fatalities were reported in the city april 17th, chinese stocks fell the most in more than two years.

Shanghai composite in the csi 300 indices closed down 5.1 and 4.9 respectively uh, especially as economists have slashed their projections for chinese expansion and uh and the imf last week, cutting its 2022 growth forecast for the country to 4.4 percent wow. Oh yeah, look at that got some empty yeah. Okay, get your lettuce empty, empty trays of lettuce. All right! We got about two and a half minutes to go here.

Uh. Let's take a look here. Um! I don't see that on to somebody here. Mention suggests that maybe twitter has uh responded.

Let me see here i will see if i can get any kind of news on that. Uh. Let's see here, my mornings aren't complete without the market open streams. Oh thanks for saying that i'm here for the skimmy stoodle.

Oh yeah, there you go, don't forget the masks, oh dear thoughts on disney, i'm not a disney vacation club member i like when there's fud, usually uh, but it creates buying opportunities but uh yeah. I don't actually see any news here on uh the twitter bid. Not yet so tbd, i suppose, what's happening here all right, so let's go is the fed going to get ahead of inflation uh? The best thing you could hope for is that the fed doesn't have to get ahead of inflation, because if the fed actually has to get ahead of inflation, folks they're going to force a recession uh, that's not good. If we actually start getting some, you know serious, fed talk that they're going to be serious about getting inflation down over time and inflation actually starts going down and inflation expectations go down.

That's the best. You can hope, for you, do not want the fed to have to squeeze inflation out of this market, that that would be the worst case scenario, because the fed, squeezing inflation out of the market is only done by forcing a recession. However, if the fed keeps inflation expectations constrained at the same time as inflation starts going down, that would be very good. Uh blackstone also this morning reported an acquisition of a real estate firm, quite a large one.

Business uh they're buying 7.6 billion dollars for 28 million square feet of residential and industrial real estate kind of interesting, auto blog twitter, twitter, set to accept musk's, 43 billion offer sources say set to accept well tbd. I guess uh exactly but uh. Let's get. Let's get the opening bell here: let's listen in input costs that people are afraid of box glass, scene, rapper, uh and then, of course, the actual fundament of what's in the box, and then the trucks and quadruple play against kimberly clark.

These all had good quarters there. There's the opening bell nbc's real time exchange here at the big board. It's kindle tiger acquisition corp celebrating its recent listing at the nasdaq. It's wsfs financial, celebrating the 35th anniversary as a public company there and as we look for the open, it looks like jim.

The only two sectors that are positive this morning, consumer staples and utilities and real estate, so those are the defensive sectors still working. Can we talk about that for a second yeah? That is about 85 right all right. Let's take a look at the uh opening candlesticks here, so here's tesla bouncing around that uh 980 level uh. Let's take a look at the qqq sitting down about five six percent point: five: eight percent now point six bobbin around rotating slightly down and phase down another four percent on end face.

Look at that drop on open over here you ouch, oh and tesla just lost another four bucks. There goes any hope of uh. Of of that green candle, opening uh holding on remember the open tends to be pretty dang wild, though uh. Oh, what's uh what we got going up over here, clever leaf uh! We got some smaller cap companies over here be careful with the small caps over here uh, especially in this kind of market.

You get some insane moves here. Where's. My market cap should really move that over to have that uh pretty readily accessible, but i don't well where's market cap. What did they do? Oh no.

My market cap is gone. Yeah. Look at that, but we can add that uh. You know we'll i'll handle that later uh, okay, so um.

Oh look a firm's actually up two percent. How long is that gon na last uh, anyway, looking at the downside, owlette down ten percent overstock, there's that five percent neo what's neo seventeen dollars right now? Cardano 85 cents uh, which that actually uh reminds me that if you have not yet considered trading, your crypto on ftx make sure you go to the link in the description down below and check out ftx, because the integrate trading views technical analysis software directly into ftx. You get some free bonuses when you sign up with ftx check those out by the link down below uh and fees, uh, not down that full four percent anymore. I do i'm kind of curious just to see how the first few minutes are going to go yeah starting to get a little bit of that rotation back up.

Oh look at that here. Look there's tesla just gained about 10 points on a single candlestick here. There's that qqq, actually rotating back towards that green direction. Very, very good.

Okay, i'm now getting uh multiple, more reports here about twitter set to accept elon's offer. Let's take a look at twitter. I think it's up about four percent uh 3.3. It's really interesting because the buyout is is expected to be 54.20 and the fact that it's trading for 50.

about four dollars shy of that nearly 10 shy of that is is quite interesting. Dogecoin source 15, as musk twitter deal to be reportedly finalized. Okay uh already, then, do you think the rumors of a firm takeover is real. I've not heard that, but you know what let's uh, let's take a look and see if we can find out, we will look at the doomberg.

I mean bloomberg a term and see what they say. Oil futures extend losses us crude down by six dollars per barrel: morgan stanley, no, that's boring uh! I'm just reading the tape. Russia expels 40 german diplomatic staff in tit for tat, move all right. Let's see what we got on a firm news, so affirm uh, shareholder lawsuit, shareholder lawsuit, shareholder lawsuits.

Jeez man come on uh. No! No! No! No! No! I don't see anything about that. I do see uh, oh look! Motley fool could affirm be the next paypal. You know firm's trying to be the next visa all right.

Let's uh, i want to take a look at the 10. Let's see 10-year the latest. 10-Year i have here is 2.82. I want to see if that's updating, uh, let's see here the bond market.

Oh no yeah, it's down! Okay! I need to hit that update on that. Let's see that again yeah there we go okay. Now it's updating, so uh 10 years sitting at 2.8, potentially getting ready to sneak under 2.8. So we'll see what happens there.

I scrolled past the market cap column. Oh thank you for saying that silly me uh twitter, now uh bouncing around that four percent level. So we'll see what happens there, uh break evens, still lower on the day, really good. Okay, let me see what the suits are saying: it's always fun to see what the suits have to say, and i don't mean jim cramer.

Either bonds will likely get help from paws and hawkish talk. The federal reserve speakers are in a quiet period and investors are starting to think about month. End these two things should keep treasury susceptible to a corrective rally. The fed started its self-imposed blackout on saturday ahead of the may 4th meeting.

Oh, thank god, the fed the fed is shutting up until may 4th no more fed the fed won't be talking until may 4.. This means the fomc participants and staff will refrain from speaking publicly about monetary policy until the thursday following a meeting or may 5th stocks down a 5.7 percent month to date, and bond yields are the highest in over three years and that's likely to push investors to Further shed stocks in favor of bonds, lowering bond yields u.s consumer health can help. Staunch a stock bleed. This week's mega tech earnings are rightly grabbing attention, as last week's rut continues, with tesla and nvidia among the top decliners by a value ahead of the bell consumer stocks.

On the other hand, look like they're about to get a lift. The latest results show healthy demand and robust spending yeah. This is something that we've been talking about a lot of robust spending. I mean just i'm so blown away that people keep spending money.

I don't know where people get all the money from look at this qqq's. Almost gone green, oh my gosh, it's a sign! Folks! It's a sign. We start the live streams. Again we got ta get qqq to go green.

Let's go look at that end. Face is only down point. Eight castle's sitting at 9.86, uh trade desk, is holding on to 60 bucks. A firm is, is 2.7 on the upside right now.

Uh two twitters just doesn't really know what it wants to do. Uh dogecoin's, actually only up about 6.6 right now, but then again always depends on the time frame. We look there carvana. Oh man, are you serious, carvana's, 76 dollars dude? Wasn't this like a 200 stock holy crap carvana went almost to 400 dollars holy crap it's at 76..

Oh, my gosh, that is, it is literally lost. 300, see look 376. Now it's just 76.. I don't.

I don't even want to do the math on that, but i'm going to do it anyway. That is a decline of 80 percent holy crap, that's insane! I mean in order in order to go back up. What do you need? Like 4x? No more than 4x right, 76 4.9 x, o m g - oh my gosh! Okay! So, let's see here, uh, oh coca-cola, just came out with earnings. Okay, i want to see these hold on a sec.

Let me see if i could just get the summary on it, but i'll read the earnings call later okay, so that was american express no, they didn't do it for a coke. Well, i can also get a summary here. Okay, i'll do a quick summary on american express as well, because it'll be good to know. Coca-Cola shares are up as much as 1.6 in the pre-market after the beverage company reported what bernstein called a blockbuster 10 eps beat, and a quite remarkable 18 advance in organic revenue.

Coke maintained its full year guidance which may cap a stock rally. How interesting there could be a case made that the forecast has implicitly increased, because, though the headline numbers stayed the same, they now assume a one to two percent impact from the russian market exit: okay, uh, incredibly conservative to us blah blah blah came in at eps Of 64 cents versus 58 yeah, that is about 10 - that's incredible unit case volume up eight percent. It's because jack started drinking coca-cola he's he's in love, uh, nutrition juice, dairy and plant-based beverages, case volumes up 12 plant-based beverages, wow nutrition, dairy and juices. I didn't even know coke did that stuff, hydration sports, coffee and tea unit up ten percent wow, very interesting, okay and then uh american, express, which we briefly talked about at the end of last week, executives told analysts.

They see further opportunities to spend more on rewards and engagement. The increase spending on new perks and rewards have led to a record level of acquisitions for platinum customers and business cards up 14 on net card fees. Consumer spending on american express's network soared 30. During the quarter, i mean that's insane like how.

How could you have a recession when credit card spending is up 30 percent? You can't unless, of course, it goes negative in the next quarters. It's like all right now. We spent all our money, however. American express doesn't seem to be making that bad american express quote is betting, that consumers will borrow more, which, combined with the effects of higher interest rates, should buoy interest revenues this year, but it will force the company to set aside more in reserves.

Okay, see what gym boy has to say. So if, if we did get 75 for which bullard has sort of put out there, i i don't think it was his base case. Do it, but we don't want to sit here and have water dripping and water dripping. We need it done.

Okay, we need the mortgage rates go to 5.5 and people are no longer in 27. Best and final. You know what i'm saying, but we need people to say. I'm not my lawyer, i'm not you know.

I got my mortgage so therefore i'm buying a house, that's what people do they get their mortgage to buy a house. You need people to say you know what i'm not getting my mortgage and i ain't buying a house uh. We also need what i feel about bad for jay powell. Is this work from home has created the two home situation, so people almost feel like they have to have a second home who are wealthy enough uh, and then you have uh brian moynihan's number, where people have a couple thousand dollars, and now they have say 10.

12, 000 of which they can live on, thank heavens because we have ways to be able to live in this country, so jim cramer, calling for 5.5 mortgage rates well we're at 5 right now so and if your credit's a little lower you're well over that already Someone here says: people are using credit cards because they can't afford gas some people - that is probably very true. Unfortunately, that is uh. It seems to be the lower income demo that gets hit the worst there. So, let's see here uh here, oh this is an interesting one.

Okay, a i've! Never even heard of this title, a chief market, technician wow! I want to be a market technician. What do you do? You have like a wrench at mkm partners wrote. In a note. We have nearly a third of the s.

P, 500 and half of the dow set to report. Bottom-Up drivers will either confirm or reject what the challenging macroeconomic backdrop has given us, really really you're a market technician and you're, basically going to tell me well earnings, are this week and things are either going to go up or down wow. That is like the the lamest quote: i've ever seen in the bloomberg article good one and take leave it to a market technician to tell you things are either going to go up or down. Oh my gosh he's right.

That's so dumb. Will you look at that? My watch list 297.. This is your watch list. Yeah.

That's my watch list. What about deer got it got a bank of america took it down. Oh, they said that they that earnings have not realized the prices are in the stock, all right i'll. Take the other side yeah fertilizer.

They saw that worldwide what what families calling top mana from heaven heard back from 40 40 dealers and less than 40 percent plan to order more equipment this year versus 57 a year ago, well sort of surprising to them all. I can say is that the farmers are protected class anytime. You ever have a decline in inventory uh, they increase the inventory. I think that ico told a very positive story: much more worldwide uh tremendous.

You know, 13 of the calories in the world come from ukraine. So you have to you have to plant furiously away from that. There is a soybean uh, there's a there's, a real problem with soybeans in brazil, but i just don't want to get rid of this hag tree. I think yeah qqq by the way very very temperamental right now, uh.

It almost almost went positive here now, it's back down to uh 0.64 to the downside. Uh end phase was literally just positive, uh and just rotated down uh to about uh three quarters with a half percent to the downside. Tesla rotated same thing, kind of bobbing around here, 981 right now, so really quite an interesting day, uh in terms of the market. Trying to really figure out what to do.

It almost seems, like you, have a tug of war going on between the by the dippers and uh uh institutional selling. Here uh fear selling. It's a lot of fear driving this this market right now. It's quite sad.

It's also quite sad honestly that uh, even though sofi has got some nice green bars over here, it's still red on the day and it's at six dollars and 36 cents. I mean it's just it's just a constant bleed out here. It's it's uh, it's quite terrible! Uh yeah, you know and uh. There is a lot of talk about here's somebody uh daniel welcome, thank you for joining uh.

You've got to mention here. A lot of wheat is in the field in north alabama. How interesting uh a lot of wheat fields in north alabama uh one of the things i the economist, talked about about we not too long ago as well. Uh, maybe a couple weeks ago, as they were talking about how america doesn't have a lot of excess capacity for for really producing more uh, wheat or or uh food commodities, because a lot of the land is already being used for that.

I don't know how much i believe that i see plenty of land around, but but then again i who knows maybe it's not as as they say, arable land anyway, ukrainian presidential adviser says russia continues to attack marupo steel plant where fighters are holed up. Uh. Okay reading the tape here doesn't look like there's anything spectacular, but a lot of people paying attention to beijing and ukraine uh headline also uh. The top of writers right now is that twitter is set to accept elon musk's 43 billion offer we'll see what happens here.

Graphic chip prices drop raises questions on whether the end of the shortage is in sight, well, hot. Damn now that here looks like something i want to take a look at. You should make a video on the farmland bill gates is buying up yeah no kidding right. Uh jeez man uh all right.

Let me take a look. I'm gon na i'll take a look into that, but let me also i want to start with what we got over here, all right, so reuters, let's go ahead and in the meantime, we'll we'll throw up qqq and then let's see what this reuters style, yeah qqq. Now down point eight look at that: come on it almost had a chance. There.

Oh, was that a chance all right, so a sharp drop in graphic card prices could presage an unexpectedly quick ending to the global chip crunch that has crippled manufacturing from smartphones to cars, and the issue will be a central one for companies reporting this week as intel. Qualcomm and others report investors will weigh how dampened consumer spending from inflation, china's coveted lockdowns and russia's invasion of ukraine balance out supply the trigger is a drop in the prices of gpus or graphic processing units which are the brains of gaming machines and spreading to other Uses analysts have recently downgraded nvidia to neutral, as chip prices have fallen so far. Nvidia is down 31 and amd is down 37 as well as a 22 drop in the uh. On the philadelphia semiconductor index.

Gpu prices are being still being sold at a premium, but a smaller one. The markup for gpus has fallen to 41. Oh that's interesting: uh, 41 markup from 77 and graphics chips and hardware news sites which track graphic prices, reported that prices of amd's rx 6000 and nvidia's rtx 30. Both used for gaming dropped steadily to less than 20 percent above msrp uh on resale all right.

Uh vicious cycle demand for gpus may also be dropping because cryptocurrencies like ethereum, are expected to change the way they operate. Obviously, moving over to proof of stake and bank of america said, the weakness in gaming or cryptocurrency mining segments could be balanced out by strength and data center demand. It's reaffirming its buy rating for nvidia intel taiwan semiconductors planning, multi-billion dollar expansions uh, despite this uh, slightly negative news there. Okay, quite interesting all right all right, let's see what else we have: okay, poor retail, guys buying it open.

Well, maybe i mean uh, you know i i personally, i don't. I don't like doing anything at that open or i like buying the dip, usually right before clothes, because that's when all the institutional weenie babies come out and start dumping little pansies uh all right. Let's uh: okay, let's see bloomberg's talking about blackstone, that's boring yeah we've got the s p underperforming qqq, which is really quite interesting. Look at that qqq down point three s p down point: eight! Seven! Now, there's this potential that you could have this divergence in the nasdaq and the spy, because the spy does have more consumer discretion than the nasdaq technology index, the nasdaq 100 versus the s p, 500 versus the russell 2000.

Those of course being the big uh indices. That we tend to track wow, look at a firm up four percent and end phase just went green. Let me see if there's any go back to a firm news here. No, no news on a firm, uh, republicans cheer possible twitter musk deal.

Hoping trump will return. I do believe there was talk about uh, elon musk, specifically trying to get trump back on the platform. Look at that come on qqq. Let's go green, we can do it all right.

Let's see what other headlines we have here, so that on ship prices is actually very interesting, i'm very, very optimistic about that. Come on back down to 0.3 to the downside here on qqq lame anyway, that chip pricing information very, very interesting germany to hike 2022 inflation forecast to 6.1 yikes. Okay, now mexico's main stock index extends losses falling more than one percent. Oh, my gosh one percent cnbc's on commercial still down about a third on qqq and uh five year, break evens, now ooh falling again now at about 3.3.

Let's go! That's actually a good thing. Five year break evens falling at the open. I like to see that uh, the 10-year treasury is also falling sitting at 2.77. This is a substantial drop here from the near three percent that we hit uh, so you're.

Definitely seeing that that flight to safety is a quick run to safety now and then you've got let's see here. Is this suits? What else can the suits tell us? Well, let's find out tessa back tonight idea: brazil, central bank wants to shift market expectations, converting its view that inflation is close to peaking. Wow really comments from the central bank president and other brazilian central bank directors last week were seen as dovish. The fact that some of them failed to acknowledge the acceleration of inflation in their presentation, surprised, investors, potentially meaning the end of a tiding cycle - is back on the table again for brazil, inflation's still 12 year-over-year in brazil.

But indications are now pointing that brazil may signal a pause in their hawkishness. That's how great would it be if we could get the fed to just you know, raise a little bit and then just go all right. Now we're announcing a pause, be nice to have a nice little pause rally. All right yields remaining focus.

Of course yeah yields are, and the 10 year is really rapidly falling right. Now, it's down 12 basis points and brent is almost down 100 wti. Now, at 96.6, down about 5.47 brent down five dollars and 50 cents, natural gas, stable, we've got btc sitting at 38, 865 ethereum sitting at 28.71 make sure to go to ftx check out the link in the description down below for our partnership with ftx dow jones. Still down three quarters of a percent s p down, nearly one percent at 0.92 nasdaq's bouncing around that four right now russell down about 0.73, all right.

What else are the suits telling us today suits say nothing talked about brazil, the peaking inflation expectations, how wonderful? If we could actually get a peak in inflation, blackstone's deal of p.s business parks, huge 28 million square feet in uncertain times. It's all about guidance, yeah company guidance can be huge, especially this week. But i don't know if we're going to get guidance. Usually, apple doesn't guide and neither does nvidia or amd a lot of the ones that we really wish would guide.

Just don't guide, which i always think is quite annoying. Hedge funds cut china stocks to zero. In a year worse than 2008, yikes activision misses estimates on lackluster call of duty. Really, you know gaming has gotten hit hard.

Let's take a look at this or i'll. Listen to it. Activision blizzard, the us video game, giant, that's being purchased by microsoft, reported earnings in revenue that missed estimates largely due to underwhelming performance of last year's call of duty. Adjusted revenue in q1 fell 28.

The company said in a statement monday, analysts had expected 1.81 billion. They only brought in 1.48. The miss follows november's launch of call of duty vanguard, the latest of activisions, which the company said hadn't performed as well as expected. The world war ii, shooting game's poor showing was partly due to competition from halo and battlefield, but vanguard also received mediocre reviews.

After disappointing reception, activision will receive release a new modern warfare this year, but is planning to skip a call of duty for 2023 entirely making it the first time the franchise will be without an annual mainline release in nearly two decades. Instead, activision will focus on 2022's. Modern warfare, game and other spin-offs, the biggest video game company in the united states activision also owns franchises, like candy crush and world of warcraft. The company blamed its poor results on in part due to delays in warcraft's production schedule.

Oh, i miss playing wow, who would rather be grinding in wow right now than watching the qqq down half percent - i don't know i don't know which, which was more fun or they both suck all right. What do we got over here? What's sarah saying today's market downtrend after a beat we'll talk to him about the outlook spock on the street, we'll be right back? Oh nothing! I'm just gon na run and go to commercial. No problem. We got bloomberg.

Authorities really have a choice, but to stick with it, given the capacity of the health care system, would you agree that that is what investors are zeroed in on at this point in time? Um, i think the xero covet and the potentially a big policy error is just one aspect of the china sell-off. That's the short-term uh economic cost to uh to china, but people are especially global institutional investors, they're focused on the median term and the longer term of what china becomes so and the the global environment is very fluid, as well, so in china domestically you've got this Covet and kind of a very absurd policy try to crack down the uh the covet, and then you know medium term. People knows what people really don't know. What's a clear path to get uh get china out of this covert situation and then you've got october congress.

Uh taking place so domestically, we are looking ahead of a couple of potentially very volatile months, but then geopolitics, global uh macro job you've got a major wall happening in europe and you've got a u.s potential recession coming up mid or later 2023.