Hey this is tom nash, and a few years ago when i was dating my wife, we were out on date and i told her hey. I know you love me and she said. No, i don't said yes, you do you love me. Only problem.

Is you don't know it yet and she laughed and of course we got married and had a few kids and you know the story ended in me being correct one of my only predictions that actually came through, but i think that what's going on right now with Elon musk and twitter is very similar. It's easy for me to see that elon musk has already won the battle. It's done. It's finished it's just not really evident yet for the twitter board, the mainstream media and most of the people who are covering the story and in this video i'll show you how elon musk has already completely clean house is just a matter of time for the place To actually play themselves out simple as that stay with me: okay, so let's go over the timeline of what happened.

First of all, nine point: one percent were acquired by elon musk and eventually, eventually he reported it basically sending the stock price up towards the 45 dollar area. Now that being said, the following offer from the twitter board was very interesting because once he got to 9.1 percent almost immediately the board offered him a seat. Essentially, they said: hey elon musk come here, you're, the biggest shoulder that we have come on the board. Be one of us only thing is, you know, don't screw with our honey jar.

You know we're really having a good time here. We're getting paid. There's not really a lot of work here to be done. I mean you know, just stay on board, we'll give you a seat, but you know don't with our livelihood okay.

So the reason is that you know these guys are professional board members. They don't really get paid to get the company to profitability, to actual monetization, to any sort of alpha for the shareholders and as evidence you can look at what the stock did for the past eight years. Eight percent basically ellen looked at this and he said well. Let me think about it, he thought about it and he came back and said.

Well i thought about it. No, i don't accept your offer. Thank you so much sayonara. Now there were a lot of speculation.

Why he did this and it didn't help that the ceo of twitter came out and explained what happened by not providing a reason, essentially just giving us a chronological kind of explanation of when things happen, without any explanation of why things happen, of course, for that we Had to wait another day or two, when elon actually made an offer to the board to buy the whole thing at 54.20, and within that offer it was very evident why he didn't join the board. Essentially, he said literally to their faces. Hey your guys. Are a bunch of clowns? You guys are a bunch of bozos.

I can't get this thing overhauled like it needs to be with all of you on the management and the directorship team. You're, just not good enough. You all got ta go and it's clear to me that you're not gon na go out of your own free will. So i'm gon na have to buy the whole thing and i'm offering you a nice, really generous price to just go home, and that was the opening fire to this whole story.

Of course, what happened next is that the twitter board actually leaked by sending a few shareholders, and, talking to a few of the mainstream media, basically leaked out that they're not going to accept the offer. It was very quickly made clear through the mainstream media that the board thinks that the offer is no bueno they're, not gon na accept the offer. Now that's kind of a recap of what happened and that's where things stopped until the board actually came out and let everybody know hey we're not only not accepting the offer we're gon na adopt the poison pill. The poison pill i'm gon na talk about in a second but essentially they're going defensive, they're, actually saying we don't want to sell to you, okay, so that was kind of the chronological order of how things played out.

Now, let's talk about what's going on behind the scenes, what's actually going on as far as what the chess match is looking and how elon completely outplayed them, it's just, they don't see it yet. It's like when you're playing against gary kasparov right. You can't see it yet, but gary knows you lost probably like 17 plays ahead of you so check this out. So, first of all, you ought to understand what are the interests? What are the opposing interests? On the one hand, elon musk wants to own the company and he wants to own the company for two reasons.

One reason is basically that he wants to restore freedom of speech to twitter, which is kind of unanimously recognized as a very heavily moderated place. As far as freedom of speech goes now, that's either here or there, whether you agree with it, whether you don't agree with it, whether you, like the opinions that they're promoting or not the fact of the matter is that you know freedom of speech was designed to Kind of protect things that make us cringe that make us feel uncomfortable, of course, not vile things, not violence, not racism. None of this horrible things that we will not tolerate as a society, but anything that kind of makes us feel uncomfortable. You know the gray area, the cringy stuff.

This is what the freedom of speech concept is supposed to defend, not things that we agree on. Think about it. So basically, that's goal number one for elon now goal number two: you have to understand that is taking on all of these world transforming projects, but at the end of the day, people forget that he's actually pretty good at making money and the dude took tesla an Electric vehicle company imagine that 10 years ago, laughable and he took it from 5 billion a year to 50 billion a year. In fact, more than 50 billion a year in revenue in just five years.

Elon musk understands that, if you create something transformative, something disruptive that improves significantly the way we live, it's gon na be worth a lot of money. Look at tesla, i mean it's not a project. It's not a pro bono thing is not volunteering. He wants to make money and he knows long term, it's good business to give people freedoms and give people quality of life things that twitter are not just giving yet, and if you want to ban my account twitter go right ahead.

I won't be the first. Probably won't be the last now look, here's the thing. On the other hand, you have the board of directors, people who, collectively without jack, dorsey who's, actually leaving in about a month hold 0.01 of the company, so they're, essentially not shareholders, they're bored of directors who gets paid to basically do nothing. If you look at their performance, i mean that wasn't great and yet they're all still there a bunch of mbas and phds and fufu boys who do jack and get paid comfy job good money wide.

Then i want to go home now in a company like twitter, with 80 institutional ownership companies like vanguard, blackrock, pension funds, mutual funds - i mean none of them - are active, they're all passive. So the board has a lot of strength, a lot of power. A lot of longevity, so if you get on the board of twitter in a company, that's 80 cents on the dollar, basically pension funds and the mutual funds you get to keep that job for decades, my guy and that's exactly what they want. So they don't give a about the company they just want to keep their salary, so they're fighting, elon and now we're getting to the interesting part.

What's actually going on how elon won this chess game because his moves are pure brilliance. So, first of all, he bought nine percent of the company just to get below the threshold of the 10. You would think, as a reasonable person that holding 15 of a major public company is gon na, be pretty much enough to be the heavy hitter in the house to basically control the company. In fact, for most companies anywhere from 15 to 25 percent is literally defined.

As control twitter is a very different animal, this is a company where you literally need 51 to control it, because the board is just too strong and, as jack dorsey just said, they're dysfunctional. It's not me saying. Jake dorsey said it. The former ceo, the founder of twitter, was on twitter just saying that the board was continuously dysfunctional and the reason the company is looking the way.

It's looking, not me jack, dorsey said it right now you have the situation where elon got to 9.1 percent. They say: hey you have to cap at 15 and he realizes hey. If i cap myself at 15, if i'm not allowed to buy more than 15, if i take this board seat, that means this party goes on and we don't get to change anything with twitter. So he realizes hey, i got ta get to 51, but how? If i just start buying up shares in the free market, i'm going to spike the price, this thing is going to spiral out of control.

There is no way i can buy enough stock. He basically says: hey i'll, buy the company off you dear board of directors at 54.20 and i'll take it private. He makes an official offer at 54.20, mind 420, and basically he knows that this offer is not gon na get accepted, because he knows this board of directors has absolutely zero to do with the actual best interest of the shareholders. Now he knew that the offer is going to get rejected, obviously, but what also he knew is that once he made that offer at 54.20 he created a cap.

Nobody will buy the share at anything beyond 54.20 cents, because if elon musk is about to take it private at 54.20, there's absolutely zero incentive to buy even a cent higher than that. In fact, you probably want to buy max at 50 to leave a little bit of a wiggle room for any sort of risk. So basically, he did that as a measure to actually assure that he can buy cheap stocks on the free market while they go back and forth about this offer, which both sides here know that are not going to happen. The board knows because they know they're and illa knows because he knows they're.

So basically he knows that this is just a game and in the meanwhile, while he was going out and saying hey 5420 5420. This is the cap. The board actually sent out a few big major shareholders, like a five percent shareholder and basically said hey. This offer is too low.

This is a 70 company, blah blah blah blah blah and basically they started creating a narrative war on thursday trying to see which one of these narratives will come out on top. If ellen's narrative comes out on top the price caps at 54, probably at 50., if they win and they convince people that elon will have to bid much much higher for the deal to go through, then the price goes to 55, 60 65., and on thursday you Saw a clear, knockout, the day closed at 46, and then we went to good friday, so there was no trading, so basically the board lost. So now the board basically said: okay, we lost the narrative battle. Nobody believes us.

This is a 70 company. Definitely not with us as managers, because i mean, for goodness sakes, they literally hired goldman sachs to prove that what they're doing here is right when goldman sachs research, which is actually separated. I have no doubt about that, but goldman sachs research just said that it's a sell at thirty dollars. So even though it's legitimate, when you separate you know the buy side from the sell side, i get it but the same entity goldman sachs says it's a seller.

30 and then you hired them, you hired them out of all the options you had in the market. You hired them to argue that 5420 is too cheap. That means that you're either negligent or you complete idiot or on purpose you're trying to lose this case. None of these options are good as far as the qualitative judgment of this board of making this decision and by the way they actually added jpmorgan to the mix after they find out about the little oopsie, not that it changes things because the mistake already has been In the open - and you know it's just another proof of the negligence of the current board and this functionality right now - we have this weird situation when thursday kind of runs out, and basically the board is like okay, so we're losing.

What can we do next and then they basically come out and say: okay, so we're going to enact the poison pill, and this is how it's going to work in reality, assume that there's only a hundred shares for this company out of chairs elon owns 10 rest Of the show holders they own 90., and now we have the poison pill in place. So elon goes out in the free market and buys 10 more shares. Now. Elon owns 20 shares rest of the shareholders.

They now own only 80 shares, so they own 80. He owns 20 now at this point, we have the poison pill triggered because he went about 15, so this case actually leads to more dilution. The board basically says hey dear shareholders, why don't you buy more shares of the company at a massive discount i'll? Give you 40 shares of the company at half the price deal. Of course i mean it's a no-brainer, they all buy the shares, or at least some of them buy the shares, and at this point, all of a sudden we have a brand new situation.

Elon still holds on to his 20 shares, but they're no longer worth 20 of the company, because now we have 40 more shares in the mix and now his 20 shares are only 14 of the company and the rest of them they're, 86 percent of the company. So, by doing that, essentially what we've created - we deluded elon musk. So now he has to buy even more shares and get even more money in the play just to get back to 20, at which point they can do it again, and they can do it again and they can do it again, essentially costing him an obscene amount Of money to get to 51 now, this sort of thing would be extremely effective against somebody who's highly leveraged. Essentially, who has a loan from the bank to get the done, and he absolutely is sensitive to the price.

If you don't have your own money or enough of it and you're, basically relying on loans, if they do this to you, you're done, i mean there's just not enough money. It literally doubles the price if you actually make the calculation. However, if you're going up against a guy, who is the richest man on earth who can easily easily borrow as much money as he needs against tesla stock and is highly determined to buy this company? Do you really think that this is going to stop him, especially giving the next number i'm about to show you, because the next number is going to blow your mind check this out, elon offered them 43 billion dollars for 100 of the company 43 billion for 100? Of the company, if now in this new scheme, his total cost per share is going to be about 90 95 with the poison pill. How much can he buy with about 95 dollars per share with the same amount of allocation of cash 43 billion roughly about 50, which is exactly what he needs to kick all of these guys out, take control of the company and basically do whatever he wants? He doesn't need the 100 them going.

The poison player out changes nothing because in a sense he was counting on spending 43 billion anyways. It was just a head fake. It was a faint to get them to do this, so he can buy up the whole thing at about 95 bucks and be done with it, but we're jumping the gun here. I'm gon na go over every single option.

That may or may not happen in the next few days, but before that, let me explain what happened next, because what happens next is really important, so the board will get sued, make no mistakes about it. If this deal falls through and it doesn't happen, the board will be sued by the shareholders because they cost them tens of billions of dollars instead of selling their shares at 54.20. The shares will end up at a much much lower valuation if this deal falls through because essentially they're enacting the poison pill which dilutes the company and drives the share price down and when elon musk basically says. Okay, no deal i'm basically selling out my 10 and leaving.

If that happens, the share price is going to go way way down and basically you're going to have the situation where a lot of these shareholders are going to go in front of a judge and sue and say hey. These directors took care of their own. Instead of me, instead of enacting their fiduciary duty, they were thinking about not getting fired and they cost me the difference from 54 to whatever the share price is going to be at that time and they're going to be right. However, the directors will either be protected by directors and offices insurance and if that thing doesn't really apply, they all have an identification clause from the company which will have to pay the damages on their behalf.

So essentially they know they're going to lose this court case. They know that this goldman sachs is not going to fly, but they also know that the company is going to pay up and actually they won't have to pay a single time. They're only trying to prolong the process to collect more salaries and more chicks. And it's sad because we have a guy who's willing to put 20 of his net worth the richest guy on earth, willing to put one-fifth of everything he has on the planet to take this company and make it better.

On the other hand, we have a bunch of mbas and phds and fufu boys who hold 0.01 of the company. Basically not shareholders, who are holding this company hostage just to get paid, and nobody can do a damn thing about it. And there isn't enough activist shareholders, because they're all mutual puns and pensions and stuff like that to actually push the board and say hey, this isn't cool. It's really really sad and knowing elon in the next few days.

Twitter is going to be very interesting. He might offer to pain doge. Who knows, he might offer to start his own platform just as a joke, but knowing the situation it's much much easier to buy twitter, even in this crazy situation than starting your own platform, it's just too complicated, there's a good one. Just laying around doing absolutely nothing just buy that one, even if you have to overpay now there are other alternatives here, for example, elon musk can improve his bid, basically offer them more than 20 54.20, maybe over 60, maybe 65..

At that point, if that happens, it puts more pressure on the board to actually agree to this deal, because it actually makes it less of a case for them to say hey. This offer wasn't good enough. Of course, the board will claim that this isn't in the best interest of the company, regardless of the price he offers, because of his entanglements with the sec in the past, they're, basically going to say that elon is a loose cannon and then he's in hot water. With the sec, they don't want him owning company.

Regardless of the price. I mean that's an option, the other option that he might just do with direct tender. He actually insinuated something about that on twitter. It seems, but that's also kind of nowhere here and there before we know exactly what's going on with this offer.

We also may see other bidders come in, but that's again kind of shaky, because the companies that would love to own twitter, like google or amazon or companies like facebook, who would love to own it at any price. They won't be allowed to do it from a regulatory perspective. It's just not going to work from an anti-trust perspective. They're not going to get that opportunity.

They know it. They won't even bid the ones that can't bid. I mean: do you really want to go into a bidding war against the richest man on earth? Who has no financial motivation and he's adamant about owning this company, and the company is basically hot doo doo i mean they can't make any money and they're complete in shambles, i mean seems very unlikely. So it seems to me that the most likely scenario is that ellen is playing 4d chess here and he already won.

He basically just made a calculation and he basically said okay, so i'm going to spend 43 44 45 on this. Now, i'm going to tell them. I want to buy 100 at 45 they're going to do a poison pill. Then i'm going to have to end up buying things again and again and again chasing myself until i get to 51, when i can kick them out and think about it.

The price 54 dollars buys you 100, the company, according to his original offer, now they're doing the poison pill and the base point is 54.20. Now that means it's probably gon na have to pay anywhere from 90 to 95 dollars per share once it gets to 51. So if 43 billion buys you 100 the company at 54, how much does 43 billion and change buys if the price is 95 per share, roughly exactly what he needs to control this company, which is 51, which is exactly the number he's chasing, not a hundred. That's why he already won.

He has the ability, the money, the determination and the motivation to get it done. The board is just gon na up the company they're gon na screw over the shareholders. They're not gon na pay a dime for this, because the company will pay out the damages and eventually it won't change anything you're. Just gon na buy it for a little bit more money and they're all gon na be left without a job, because unfortunately, in this case, the poison pill does nothing but poison.

The current existing shareholders of the company, that's the sad truth and the poison is actually not that important to the board because they don't own any shares of the company. I think the shareholders of twitter, at least the ones that do care, need to know about this who's on their side, who's, not on their side, because in this case it seems, like the board, isn't really on the side of the shareholders, not that it's going to Matter this is exactly how i think this thing plays out, but hey i've been wrong before maybe i'm wrong again. Let me know in the comments, if you have a different theory, let me know if you agree with me: disagree with me a huge shout out to the channel members and the patrons for being awesome. Thank you guys so much.

I really appreciate it. You make this possible see you tomorrow.