Everyone meet kevin here, okay, so some people were reading into my last video that had the word sold in the title and they're like oh, my gosh, here's, mr fudster kevin. Oh, my gosh, here's mr flip-flop trader kevin, who sells everything again. So what i thought in this video is, i would do a portfolio update after having paid taxes, which was a big f and a big l depending on how you look at it. Actually, it's probably in both, but anyway uh first, i i wanted to mention a few things about sort of my thesis on the market, because i think some folks think that uh, you may be embarrassed when i'm not because i really am not.

I mean here come come with me, so first of all here here are the negative catalysts that we have. The yield curve inverted for literally like 36 hours. Okay, big deal, who cares? We've got uh rising 10-year uh. This is uh.

This is a problem, mostly in my opinion, for real estate, but real estate eventually will trickle to the consumer, see the consumer might still be strong today, and this is, this is the biggest problem: okay, so whether you're a bear or a bull. This is a sincere problem. The consumer is uh, not certain to be uh forever, confident if home values fall now 66 percent of individuals, maybe 64 of individuals or homeowners, so you've got that other, like 35 36 percent, but a lot of people are homeowners. Home values start falling, people start spending less money, it's a problem.

I suspect, though, that people won't necessarily just overall spend less money. I think people will spend less money on their homes, which impacts lowe's home depot and phase, and solar and companies like that right. I actually personally think that, in addition to supply chain issues, that could be potentially one of the issues we're seeing slower solar deployments at solar, but that might be a reach and that's to come. Stay tuned, uh and - and i mentioned as well in january that this is we're going to see a rotation to consumer sables and commodities.

And that's what we've seen now, i'm personally not a big fan of investing commodities, because you know that i like being able to take the opportunity of buying the dip in my logs, and i don't actually like trading that much. I like buying more of my loans. So these are issues. Housing is an issue, the ppi huge disaster, and we know the ppi, the cpi.

We know these vastly understate the actual inflation we're seeing i mean you just consider cpi, for example, you've got the fact that we use owner's equivalent rents, which is literally like a survey of homeowners like hey. How much do you think you could rent your property for? It's like the stupidest thing ever because it way lags and first of all, we know rents have done this while home prices have done this. So it's like uh duh. Obviously we're going to have a huge cpi, uh differential there, that's a massive lagging indicator, but then we also have this.

This state home issue shopify etsy, uh netflix. These are all stocks that i don't own. I've previously owned etsy, i used to love etsy but, as i've said, i've rotated out of consumer discretionaries because it's not the place to be right now and i'm investing more in sort of the upper echelon of consumer discretionaries, which i consider tesla really and eventually. I think it'll be a stable, but anyway stay at home is obviously getting wrecked.

I mean we saw the netflix number, so we don't have to go through that again and we know we have these really ugly catalysts. I mean, if you really add one over here. You have uh april 18th, which uh was tax day. I mean i paid nine and a half million dollars of taxes.

It's ridiculous that saps purchasing power. I mean if at the end of last year i you know, bought a big property or bought a plane or something stupid. I could have paid no taxes and i would have had more money to invest in the market right, but most people pay their taxes on 18. and so unfortunately, that's what i do.

But anyway, now we've got earnings and unfortunately, we're led by a bank earnings which were good. We were led by uh procter gamble, which was good and tesla, which was honestly unfathomably amazing. I cannot believe tesla's not only growing at 50, but it's projected now thanks to elon, although he has rosy projections to potentially be growing at a 60 clip and you have increasing margins in this sort of environment insane. But anyway, uh earnings are potentially an issue and we're led by this.

This miss on stay at home, but i think we're going to see more misses on stay at home, and this really creates questions like honestly. Disney is probably one of those stocks. I don't think i can do an upside-down question mark, but anyway is one of those stocks where it's like. I don't know, i mean, like their parks, are probably gon na, kill it, but disney plus could be a total loser right.

We have no idea so big big, you know potential, like i don't know over at disney right because of netflix, but anyway, you've got the fomc meeting on may 4th. You've got jobs. Data coming out on may 6th. You've got cpi data coming out on may 11th and then what do you have in between here come on folks may 9th is v-day victory day i mean you've got a sh9t show coming up of catalyst.

It's terrible. I mean like come on. Earnings either come in acceptable and they meet expectations or they miss it's. A disaster, like beats, don't exist in this market, so you've got a lot of reasons to be bearish and i don't blame anybody for being a bear.

I was a bear in january back when i thought the fed was a good rug pull us. I thought we were going to get a one to two percent rate hike. I thought they were going to force a recession. Why? Because we had a wage price spiral in january that wage price spiral was actually revised away.

In february we had war, which reiterated the belief that maybe we shouldn't push for a recession, because maybe consumers will spend less. Although, ironically, consumers have been spending more and the fed actually changed to a little bit of a game-changing dovish tone, which is shocking because they've become very aggressive as of december right, those minutes that we got january 5th, worst minutes, i've ever read if you just type Into youtube, meet kevin worst federal reserve meeting minutes ever you'll, see it january 5th. It's terrible, which speaking of dates, reminds me of the fact that today is still 4 20 and you can get the absolute best prices on my program that, on any of my programs on building wealth that you will ever be able to get in the future. I promise you there will never be a day that you could get these programs cheaper.

Today is 4 20.. It's the last day that you can do that. Take advantage of that we'll be changing the pricing in the morning. Pricing will be elevating up.

So if you want to lock in the best pricing and see me and private course, member live streams and get all of my updated content in the future, which just uh between you and me, and when we launch this new project, we're working on we're. Also going to be launching some new lectures, especially in our property management, real estate and stock section, so stay tuned for those new lectures. All the upgrades are totally free for those programs, so check those out really good for building your wealth in the long term. Use that code down below, i think it's cyber kevin and that's really because so impressed with tesla.

I still have my wristband on this is like two weeks old here i shower with it. I love it anyway. So this is all the bad over here, but but look at some of the good that we have. First of all, people keep referring back to the 70s and 80s and they forget that wait a minute.

We we have something that's very different from the 70s and 80s, which is late, 70s, early 80s, paul volckering and the difference is unanchored inflation expectations back in the late 70s people thought that, oh my gosh, we left the gold standard. It's the gold standard. The dollar is going to zero if the dollar goes to zero. Well, why would i hold the dollar? This is terrible.

This is stupid. This is worthless, like inflation's, just going to keep going to the moon, we're going to be wheelbarrows of cash like the weimar republic. In the 20s in germany complete disaster, but no, what do we actually have today? Is we actually have anchored inflation expectations university of michigan one year, inflation expectations completely flat. What do we have for the five year? Inflation expectations completely flat at three percent.

I mean this is incredible. We know that consumers actually think that in about three years, mortgage rates will be like eight to eight point. Two percent: don't get me wrong, i'm bearish on real estate right now, but i will take that as an opportunity to go shopping for real estate. But i know how to shop for real estate.

I know how to get deals below market value. So that's that's easy. That's it! That's a cakewalk, so uh core cpi fell. This is mostly because of the manheim index, which is the used vehicle index uh, and then we've got rental lodging air travel people are still spending money like crazy, which i mean i just booked a trip.

Uh many trips, i mean, i think, we're gon na go to hawaii again we're gon na go to italy, we're gon na go to germany, we're gon na. I can't go skiing anymore, i'd love to take the kids skiing, but it's too late in the season, but anyway, people are still spending money like crazy, and i'm not exempt from that. We still want to travel. Travel is fun, especially after this coven nonsense and i've been exercising more.

So for those of you asking about the fitness challenge, i now have a challenge of uh running four to uh. This sounds crazy, but eight miles a day, uh like my shins, are killing me. Shin splints they suck, but it's it's great like i love getting out there again and i feel the same way about hanging out with folks whether it's at restaurants or bars or uh drinking at home. I don't care it's fun, but comet is over all right.

I know obviously coveted still exists. We saw that in shanghai tesla reopened, blah blah blah. Whatever all the freaking comments see, i got a hedge like every angle. Every time i say something i have to try to forget about it.

Who cares freaking losers in the comments? Sometimes most of you, though, are really nice. I really appreciate you like. I see the nice comments and i'm like man, the core audience. These are good people.

I really like these people. So what do we got over here this? This is probably the biggest thing right here, so you might not believe this, but back in january the uh president of the university of michigan's consumer confidence survey said that we have a wage price spiral. It's so much so that they, they went out of their way to say that wait, a minute when wages are growing at a faster clip than inflation is growing we're in a wage price spiral. This is bad.

This is really bad. This was one of the main core theses. That was the reason i made sort of a titanic video like oh, my gosh grab the titanic right. It was terrible uh now, fortunately, that turned out to be a nothing burger thing: freaking god and we were able to purchase lower, which is also freaking wonderful.

But what are some of the other things we have the five-year break, even the five-year break, even rotating down is, is very, very huge. This is markets the market's inflation of uh. Sorry, the market's expectations of inflation, going down consumer inflation expectations going down the 10-year, mostly steepening, although we did go from about uh 0.38 to about 0.28 after netflix, which wasn't great, we had some flattening, but generally we're on this trajectory of steepening. Let's keep that trajectory going.

Okay, we don't want to go back to inversion, uh and uh. I don't know a lot of folks, don't remember this, but uh and i'm gon na give you a portfolio update as well. Okay, because i have a little bit of margin right now, but i'm gon na give you some clarity about my margin. I'm gon na give you a portfolio update, but consumer margin.

Right now is down 14.5 from october, which is really good. We've had a manufacturing beat in march, but at the same time as we had a manufacturing beat in march, we actually have less freight and rail shipments, which is a little bit of a sign that consumers are spending a little less money on things and maybe spending More money on services, which is the rotation that you would expect, you would expect to see, a pull towards the extreme of services over, like certainly durables, which are like washing machines and cars, uh and other junk, with the exception of, of course, tesla, which sometimes people Like, oh, you see, exception intense like him, and then you invest in tests so you're just trying to pump it dude. I can't i wish i could pump tesla stock. I can maybe elon can, but i can all he has to do.

Is save funding secured but anyway, uh look uh consumer just crash they're gon na get hit, but banks tesla procter gamble the earnings that we've gotten here, with the exception of obviously the negative of netflix huge freaking beats across the board. Here i mean we're killing it with the consumer, so i'm very optimistic now i promised you portfolio updates. So let me give you one here: okay and keep in mind, use cyberkevin the coupon code join me. So you, when you ask questions to me in person, we can have a dialogue about what you think about what's going on in the market.

Maybe what do you think like? What would kevin do in your shoes to try to get ahead and get to the next level whatever or hey here's my real estate deal and i'm in escrow and kevin? Do you think this is a good deal i'll give you my sincere feedback? Y'All know i'm no bs. I tell you what i'm thinking and sometimes i get hate for that, and sometimes i get praised for that, i mean, is what it is. Okay, so portfolio update all right portfolio update is pretty simple right now uh, i did just get tagged with nine and a half million dollars of taxes, which is a complete disaster, so tentatively i'm seven million dollars in margin, but i have about four point: eight in Cash uh, which is very, very nice uh, but uh, so so that that's a nice little offset there uh. But if i go uh 4.8 cash minus the uh, seven in margin, i'm sitting at about negative 2.4 cash right now, which means i'm actually in margin which sucks.

But i've got some real estate transactions. Closing, which is nice, because that those real estate transactions are going to clear up my margin. So the point of this is i'm not trying to advocate that anybody get into margin. I think margin is a terrible idea.

You should not be in margin of this market. Uh, otherwise, in terms of a stock position, so i'm going to be clearing out my margin with real estate and then what i'm going to be doing is i'm going to be taking the extra cash and uh, probably a large chunk of my stock portfolio. We're going to be moving this over into a new corporation, which is the metkevin.com series a opportunity, there's not much. I can really say about it right now, but if you go to series a throw your information in there, uh you'll be the first to know about it, uh actually right after course, members because course members are going to have the first opportunity to potentially invest with Me so that'll be a really cool thing, so check that out, metkevin.com series a and then, of course, if you want to become a course member met, kevin.com, join and use the coupon code cyberkevin.

But anyway, my portfolio's really kind of whittled down to very very few positions so uh in in anytime. I make a transaction whether it's in crypto or stocks. You get an alert if you join the courses but uh tesla 16 000 shares google 606 disney 10. 000 uh amc.

I still huddle my amc. 25 20 shares ada 1 million shares or coins tokens of ada and uh 25 000 shares of trade desk. That's uh! That's my entire portfolio! So my stock portfolio right now sits about 21.4 mill, my uh net worth left. That's still captured in real estate is probably somewhere in the direction of about eight mil.

That's a lot of um uh. Well, i have quite a few properties that are still paid off in cash that are like do i want to refinance them or just sell them and i'm selling them and i'm not selling them, because i think it's a good idea to sell. I think for most people, it's not a good idea to sell i'm selling them, because i want to move into this new opportunity, so uh, you know, plus or minus, depending on the day's fluctuations, depending on how things open tomorrow. I guess that puts my nw somewhere around 30, which is certainly less than where it was at the peak of the market in november, but i mean you know anybody can compare like compare kathy wood and her fund at peak to bottom and it's like, oh god, That's even worse, that's bad, but fluctuations in the market happen.

So i mean if, if you're having that problem by the way where, if like you're, trying to compare yourself to peak uh, be careful of that because it's really toxic, like it'll eat, await you one tip. I could give you write it down like write down how you're feeling crappy about like. I wish i did this write down. I wish i did x, but i didn't and i'm an idiot uh take that little piece of paper put it in a drawer and and write down even on how you're feeling about it, like i feel crappy about this or whatever and uh now, because you've written It down, you actually never have to think about it again because you've written it down, but of course you know, you're, never gon na.

Look at that piece of paper again so psychologically. Now you can get it so a little trick. Hopefully that helps you. If you want more tricks like that, i'm serious you, i guarantee you, i guarantee you otherwise email me and be like kevin.

I didn't learn anything, but i guarantee you. You will learn something in the programs, any of them uh. I would personally, at this point in the market, recommend zero to millionaire real estate. Investing a lot of people, bundle, zero, millionaire real estate, investing without cyber kevin coupon code expiring.

Today, a lot of people bundle that with the stocks and psychology of money and then usually what i recommend is like: don't don't go all in right now and get the property management course yet wait a couple months get through the real estate investing course then get The property management course the property management course is going to get some really sick updates within the next three to six months, because our entire real estate plan is going in. That course which is going to be really cool. But you've got to go through zero to millionaire first to really understand that unless of course, you're already exposed to real estate. Of course, there's a you know entire program, of course, on building a youtube channel as well or real estate sales company, so check those out link down below thanks.

So much for watching look, i'm bullish on the market so to all the fn bears. I'm sorry, i'm not on your team. Michael bury go f yourself and uh thanks. So much for watching we'll see you next one goodbye folks, bye,.