It's a reversal of what we've seen yesterday and what we've seen in the coming weeks, but pretty much what we saw in the first quarter of this year earlier. That is that does it for me in closing, bell have a good evening, we'll send it into overtime with scott wapner boy. I missed the closing bell all right. I get to watch it alone every day.

Now, so folks, what the heck is happening. Why are we getting rejected on the nasdaq now by the 50 fibonacci line? Look at this! This is important. This is just the minute chart here on the day, but look we got rejected once midday twice midday broke through well in this video, i'm going to reveal to you a thesis in terms of what i believe is happening and which stocks might end up doing better Than others, because of some weird trends that we're seeing in specific charts, i'm going to start by just catching you up, though, with the uninversion of the yield curve and the five year break evens for inflation expectations. But then we're going to get into some nitty gritty.

We're going to talk specifically about some stocks that are performing well versus some that are not performing so well in the face of growing yields. Then we're going to talk about how i actually think that 10-year treasury is going to go and we're going to get into which in like which sectors of the stock market are, are probably going to be most affected based on people's income. And i think it's an interesting thesis, i think, you'll like it too. Let's go so here are the five-year break-evens we've seen those inflation expectations by the market actually come down, but as those inflation expectations have come down, our yield curve inverted problem with this.

Is it's a sign that the fed might be a little bit too aggressive in uh raising rates and could end up pushing us into a recession right number below zero is an inversion. So far we have uninverted today, which is good if we can just uninvert and everything goes back to chill mode. That would be nice because, right now you got folks like kathy wood, not very happy, expecting a lot of demand, destruction and the inversion of the yield curve, eventually you're going to signal a recession. But i want to show you some of these other charts.

So i like to do this. This is a a couple lines here that you got to pay attention to in my opinion, but one is the russell 2000 divided by the nasdaq. So, every time you see this white line, it's going to be a ratio with the nasdaq. So if the white line is moving up more, it means it's actually doing better than the nasdaq uh compared to some of the other things we compare to.

If uh, the white line is flat or kind of falling down, it means it's relatively doing worse than the other things we'll be comparing to relative to the nasdaq really bottom line to that. If that is confusing, when this white line gets further away from the blue line, it's bad for that thing. So, for example, right now, small caps are continuing on this sort of downtrend of getting hit more than nasdaq is, as yields are going up. That's what the blue line is.

Okay, now compare apple folks, look at this yields going up apple's actually doing quite well. It's almost like a little bit of a flight to safety, and what i want to do in this video is explain a potential reason for that. In just a moment, we talked about this with course members this morning and i'm really excited to add a little bit more color on uh sort of what we had talked about. So, let's take a look at this uh, keep in mind, we're also introducing a cyber coupon, because i'm going to the cyber rodeo for for the gigafactory texas, opening so check that out link down below here's tesla, you could see tesla's run auto ratio wise very well In response to these, these rising yields - obviously that could be because of the berlin factory opening and the stock split announcement and such right, but here's a firm, for example, really underperforming like really falling substantially below those yields.

The more those yields are going up, the more a firm actually seems to be getting sold off. Unfortunately, and that's not so great - and that is breaking a prior trend here - see previously - yields were going up in a firm kind of rose, but that that may have also been because this was around the time that a firm ipo. So it might be too soon to tell fur from here's another one. That's underperforming, it's actually one of my holdings as well, and it's disney disney underperforming, in fact we're seeing that underperformance get worse as yields rise and really to me.

These are red flags for okay. Maybe these are not the stocks that i want to huddle when they're spreading from that tenure because see, even though i like the idea of oh well, if this means disney's in a bad place, then buy the dip on dizz right well, not necessarily because i expect This yield curve to get worse right. I expect the 10-year to go up to 3 percent and, quite frankly, probably well exceed three percent. I actually believe the fed's going to have quite a bit of latitude in raising rates, and that means we might see a ten-year yield curve somewhere around three percent three and a half percent four percent - the real estate market's going to freak over this.

It's absolutely going to hate it, but the last place i really want to be, even though i really really like some of these stocks is the stocks that are seeing this sort of divergence. Now i still own my disney stock right now. I've even got some options on dis stock, so i'm shooting myself in the foot by saying this, but it's pissing me off because i like as much as it makes me sad and angry that disney's not performing. I can't look at this chart and lie to myself and say this trend is getting better, it's not getting better.

In fact, disney only went up, it seems like approximately around the time we started, seeing like a lid or some resistance to rates right, but sometimes it's a little bit harder to to really compare those uh and to say, oh with certainty, we can line this up Perfectly the trend is not good right. The trend's a little bit better for trade desk trade desk, has been performing quite well. I loaded the boat on this one at about 52 bucks, an alert to all the course members and stocks on psychology money, and i told my thesis i've been telling my thesis about advertising. I believe that consumer discretionary spend is going to fall, which i know is a counter to disney.

I realize that, but this is also parks time, so i'm still expecting positive earnings out of disney. Although their forecast could be trash. Who knows it's all gon na? Be that forecast nvidia is another one. That's been doing well, uh loaded the boat on that one at like 219 happy about that.

Look at an example of a small cap here and - and this is tattooed shift. Let me just remove myself from one here. Look at the trend as rates go up, this is underperforming again. Everything here is relative to the ndx, the nasdaq okay.

This is important because the trend is not your friend in this case. Uh and again, i get the idea like hey. Well, that that must mean it's a good time to to buy right, no wait for the trend to go in the other direction. Uh all right, let's get! Let's see, i think, that's uh, that's it in terms of uh, the comparisons that i made there.

If you want me to make some other comparisons, because we got some other conclusions here - uh, oh actually, no, i have a few more. It just got stuck, but if you do have some other ones that you'd like to hear just, let me know, leave some comments down below. Oh and remember, of course, this video is brought to you by ftx. You want to do crypto, ta and trade, while we bounce off our support lines, make sure to check out ftx use that link down below and get some free, crypto.

Okay, here's one target so target's, technically a consumer staple, but i consider it a hybrid. I consider it a consumer staple and a consumer discretionary. I'm sorry target is a consumer discretionary, but i consider it a hybrid between the two. I really think a lot of people use it as a staple, but walmart and costco are your traditional staples.

So you know not terrible but also lagging a little bit here. Here's gold! You know gold's, okay, i mean gold's actually up year to date, but nothing special in terms of like sticking with that yield curve right. So it's just not running as well as that yield curve is so uh okay. So this gives us a little bit of an idea here that you've got some safety in those megas like the apple and tesla and at the same time, and we're going to put this piece of the these pieces of the puzzle together here.

So you got safety in apple and tesla, you don't have safety in the small caps and disney at least right now you do have some safety, at least it feels like in the advertising space, probably not in the lending space okay. So let's try to understand this, because if people think that we're gon na go away from as much consumption, we're going to go away from lending, then going away from lending is probably going to be really bad for home refinance companies. Right i mean especially if equity values stop going up rates, go up, less people are going to refinance less people, buy less revenues, obviously, for those companies, less money for homeowners, less credit lines for homeowners potentially also means less feeling of richness and less spending, which maybe That means people use a firm. It's an idea buy now pay later to to keep their spending par while taking on more debt, not the best financial decision to make, but maybe that's what people would do, but it seems more likely that businesses would move into advertising.

Like google and trade desk style services right, but based on these charts that we have here, why is it that potentially apple and tesla would actually perform or why are they performing? You know in an environment when we believe that consumer trends will end up being negative and that people will spend less money, and so we came up with this thesis this morning their course member live stream, and we do this pretty regularly. So i i don't take everything from i mean, take a fraction of the stuff from the courses uh and and throw it onto the channel. But sometimes i just feel like people are going to get too bored. If i start talking about this stuff, but i think it's really really interesting when we come up with it together and everybody in the course seems to like it.

So maybe you wouldn't get one, but anyway, this was just an example of what we had talked about. Yes uh this morning, and so we were talking about how people get affected based on where their income is, and this was just sort of an assumption. This needs to be tested right, but the assumption is that somebody who makes forty thousand dollars or below is probably a shopper of nike and costco and lulu and a firm right, the 40k below range and really so were the people making a million bucks or 250k. I mean they'll buy nike they'll buy lulu they'll buy.

You know, probably not a firm, though right they'll buy nike and lulu stuff, though right see a firm will probably stop over here somewhere at that 125k level, where it's like. Ah, those people aren't really using a firm anymore right. What i think is interesting is, i think, that tesla and apple are kind of here, where they're not really catering to that 75 000 below demographic and it's possible that the consumer that we believe is getting hurt here is the consumer who's very sad, because gas prices Are up food prices are up, rent is up right when, when these things become more expensive, they affect poorer demographics, because statistically individuals making less than 75 000 per year spend a proportionately higher amount of their incomes on food and gas right these necessities. So, for example, somebody making forty thousand dollars might spend 25 of their take home money on food, whereas somebody making a million dollars just to be extreme might spend three percent of their take-home money on food right uh and in this example, the person making million dollars Is still spending way more they're spending thirty thousand dollars a year on food.

In this this example that million dollar income person right the other person spending? Oh, i don't know roughly eight thousand nine thousand dollars on food right, so the millionaire is still spending three times as much on food. But the point is the burden is way more on that poor person. So, as the poor person gets burdened, the poor products are, in my opinion, the things that are going to get destroyed the most now i'd like to hear from you. What items do you believe belong in this section here like what stocks belong here, because to some degree, oh wow jetblue makes a 3.6 billion bid for spirit airlines? Oh my gosh dude.

I would never imagine that jet blue would what what spirit you're gon na have to rip all those chairs out and get some bigger chairs in there. That's crazy, spirit's, now hopping after on that news anyway, so well spirit probably fits in this conversation. Actually so what companies - and this is something where i would look for your portfolio - look at your portfolio and say what companies are are attractive to that 75k below consumer and are those companies that you want to huddle in a time that may be potentially a short-term Recessionary or or may become an era where consumers stop spending money, because we we haven't seen it yet everybody's talking about it, though uh the investment. I mean i've been talking about it since january.

I just haven't seen the evidence of it yet and even though i've been talking about consumers spending less money since january, only this week have companies like bank of america wells, fargo, j.p, morgan. Have these companies come out to cities, banks come out to say yeah. We think consumers are going to get hit and they're going to start spending less money. Okay, great y'all, late to the frickin party - that's fine y'all usually are but but now it's just another sort of reminder that hey like better late than ever, but maybe we do really have to take a hard look at our portfolio and say: do we want to Weight our portfolios differently.

You know, obviously, if you're, just in like the nasdaq or uh, you know the s p. 500, this this matters less. You know i mean you've heard my thesis on this before, like i don't think most people should be stock pickers uh because it's really stressful and you have to deal with all this kind of stuff. But i think if you watch these videos, you probably have at least some percentage of your portfolio in stocks you're picking.

I did also by the way do this comparison to arc that same kind of chart here arc. I mean, i think, it's obvious downtrend, as these rates are going up right, it's paused a little bit here, which is interesting that downtrend but uh. I don't i i can't say that's enough of a significance, yet so uh yeah these these downtrends are a problem, and it makes sense to me that we are seeing this sort of flight to companies like tesla and apple who are actually keeping up because they're also Companies that are attracting a more premium customer, i think the average household income of a tesla owner is like a hundred thirty thousand dollars. I don't know if we could get it that quickly, average household income of apple customer right that would be kind of interesting to see, see uh the mediant median.

It's even in a better statistic: median iphone app user earns 85 000 per year, which is 40 more than the median android user. Sorry android users y'all broke okay, that no, i know not all you're broke. In fact, i would assume that statistically most of you who watch this channel have have uh at least more financial wit uh than uh than uh, most folks uh in society, which is unfortunate. But that's not that's, not everybody's fault.

That's you know. We don't teach this stuff in our schools and it's that, but anyway we don't want to get into the whole politics thing. So this is quite interesting to me, uh, and so maybe maybe if you can, let me know what you think down below i'm going to pull up my portfolio really quickly and just kind of look at it myself and think out loud here. But let me know what you think in the comments down below what stocks are you looking at that you think would be good for that more like mid to upper middle class tier that you think might be more insulated from a declining consumer spending, and - and i I don't think that you could go really extreme here right, like i don't think you can go to like mega luxury end and say: oh well, let's do private jet companies because i do think that if, if indiv like the stock market falls especially a lot of The consumer, discretionary ones uh that appeal to to uh incomes that are potentially lower.

Well, then, some people are going to have less net worth and they're going to spend less money on really extravagant things like fancy, mansions and planes, and boats and stuff right uh. But i mean, let's think about it. You know tesla apple nvidia, a little bit more on the premium side right, google, great, maybe that advertising is enphase at risk - is disney at risk right. These are these are questions to ask ourselves if the housing market weakens is end phase at risk, if a consumer's weaken is disney at risk, although i would argue that disney appeals to uh, probably a higher end demographic than than even uh like six flags.

Well, i shouldn't even say then even i mean that should be obvious uh. What about target uh? You know what about a firm, so those you know otherwise, like pound tier amd, uh, cardana trade desk. You know, google nvidia apple tesla. I think these are a little bit separated just kind of picking a few here, but those are questions.

I'd be asking myself and then i'd be thinking to myself. Do i want to potentially rebalance a little bit in how my allocation is spread? I mean i got like three million dollars in end phase, so uh, who knows but anyway, and i really really love the company. They've got some phenomenal margins and i won't be surprised if they uh kick butt here, but um anyway. Just some thoughts.

Let me know what you think: comments down below and folks we'll see you next one thanks. So much.