Yeah, i literally just can't do anything without the federal reserve coming out and tanking the indices. Nasdaq just went like right off a cliff this morning, because somebody who's seen as a dove mrs brenard over at the fed, decided to come out a little bit hawkish today, and so now people like the suits are writing about. Oh, no, she sprung talons and now she scared the market all right. So what happened and is it a big deal? Well, let's try to understand this so uh this morning, brainard spoke uh just a few minutes ago and talked about how the fed's going to tighten their balance sheet uh faster than they did during the 2017-2019 tightening period.

Remember there are two things: the federal reserve does they can raise interest rates to kind of constrain the economy and then they can sell off their balance sheet, which would be selling off their bonds. That means money's going from banks to the fed, taking money away from banks means potentially less lending from the banks. But quite frankly, i don't think that's going to make any freaking difference at all, because if you look at reverse repos banks have so much freaking money. They don't really care they'd, probably be happy to buy some bonds back at some of these higher yields, but oh well, so uh i was still freaking out about it.

I mean all you have to do is look at the reverse repos and you see that it's just like they got plenty of freaking money, because it's a lot of where a lot of this excess money goes so really for the fed to kind of taper down Its balance sheet, they got to get through those whole reverse repos. So, even if they come out and say, hey we're going to taper faster than last time. Let's say we taper at 100 billion dollars a month and we've got reverse repos of say about 1.6 trillion dollars. Well come on man, that's still 16 months before we actually even get to any kind of titaning but anyway.

So a little bit of this talk freaked. The market out, but then also uh. She says the fomc will continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce its balance sheet at a rapid pace. So for some reason, fed people coming out and saying the same.

Freaking thing that we've heard since january uh remember when we got those uh meetings that are the meeting minutes from december around january 5th everybody freaked out because they're like oh, my gosh they're, going to tighten more rapidly. Oh, my gosh you're gon na have a series of interest rate increases. Like yeah they've, been saying this for freaking months now now. What i actually think was interesting is i was kind of bullish about what she said.

You know why, because she says: look, reducing inflation is paramount and that currently there's too much uh inflation and that there's risk to the upside okay. We already knew that. But how are you going to tackle that mrs dove? How are you going to tackle all this high inflation and the concern is that the fed's going to come out with a 50 bp hike? Maybe a couple 50 basis point hikes and, and that's going to be somewhat of like a little bit of a rug, pull right. People don't want to hear that.

Well, in my opinion, that's actually not what she's saying here, but i do have to quickly mention that this video is brought to you by ftx, where make sure to check the description down below on some special ways. You can get some special perks with ftx and you get to incorporate trading view into their trading software, which is really cool because you trade crypto right away. I love how crypto bounces off my support lines all the way? Okay. So what i really actually liked about? What she said is she said this twice.

She says one quote: we will raise rates steadily and then later she says that they will raise rates quote methodically through a series of interest rate increases and jpal has previously told us if we want to kind of have an idea as to how rate increases are Going to go look to 2004 and what happened in 2004. They raised rates 17 times with 25 basis. Point hikes. Now it's entirely possible that the market is kind of reacting to the idea that okay, we're gon na have to have more than uh the eight hikes that are getting priced in right now, i think that's a like! That's a joke that the market is only pricing in eight hikes, we're going to have more than eight hikes and it's going to push the 10-year rate higher and it's going to mean mortgage rates are gon na go higher than they did in 2018..

That's my belief. I know a lot of people like there's no way they're going to be able to raise rates higher than what they were able to do before fine. I think they will in this case and if the market freaks out over that. Well, then, then, that's what the market's freaking out about, but if the market's freaking out over this potential that oh she's turning a little hawkish and we might have a 50 basis - point hike, it's ridiculous.

Nothing is really indicating that they're set to do a 50 basis. Point hike: the market is 76, convinced they're going to do a 50 basis. Point hike - and you know what i'm going to do when we get a quiet season of purchasing in the stock market right before may, 4th and 5th i'm going to buy the freaking dip, because right before that session, i think a lot of people are going to Go, oh, that's it! The market's going to tank after the fed does 50., and if they do 50, i think everybody will be like okay. Whatever are we going and it's still pretty dang cheap and if they don't do 50, the markets get a freaking rally.

It's so stupid anyway, so i don't care about the balance sheet run off. I really don't care that they're going to raise rates. I realize the market does, and i realize this hits bonds and yield curve, and that - and i realize the indices go down but to me nothing that brain art said today is scary and this everything that she said before we've heard before everything that she said reiterates A series of 25 basis point hikes, and why is the market freaking out well because she's being a little bit more stern about the concept of we got to keep inflation down. But you know what, because during fed speak, what a week and a half ago, they were so stern about inflation.

Guess what happened? Look at the five-year break-even chart it's starting to come down! Why? Because the market is actually pricing in oh crap, the fed's serious about getting inflation down now they might actually be able to get inflation down. It's like what kathy wood says yesterday, like dang crap, they might actually go too aggressively and lead us into a recession, which is why the 10-2 yield curve has inverted, because people don't actually think the fed's going to be able to stick a soft landing gear. So if you don't trust the fed and you think they're going to be overly aggressive, get the f out of the market. If you have hope in the fed - and you know you could probably ride the market until at least they stop hiking rates because usually recessions come after, they stop hiking rates and when they actually start dropping rates, that's usually what a recession i feel like is closer To starting, then you probably want to ride equities anyway, but this like nonsense of, like one day, we're up two percent of the nasdaq the next day we're down one in the third back and forth back and forth.

This is just normal par for the course gyrations. At this mo at this point, uh and uh, if anything, it's uh, it's it's. Today's reason is, in my opinion, laughable uh, like today's reason is a day to buy the dip, because bernard just being a little stern about inflation. Come on man come on.

All right see you folks, bye.