Right folks, so let's talk about what happened this morning, it's important to pay attention to, because, obviously, the last couple days, the market was red. Today, we're sort of isolating it like essentially zero with the indices. Although some individual stocks are doing just totally fine amc announced the stock split and we've got a little bit of a deeper inversion of the yield curve between the 5 and the 10 and the 10, and the two have also inverted. So it's like, oh no.

What what is this potentially going to signal? Well, i want to show you what it could potentially signal, uh, but first just quick mention this video is brought to you by extra go to medcan.com extra to build your credit without a credit card. You link this to an existing bank account and boom check out the magic of extra. It's pretty neat what they do now take a look at this though so you over here, i tweeted this yesterday. The ten two yield curve - just inverted.

I wrote this last night. Uh this happened in uh july august of 2019 and you know what happened over the next 12 months. Thereafter, the s p 500 returned to 18.25 percent. The nasdaq returned 60 and tesla stock returned 869 percent uh in it.

One of the things that i noticed about the yield curve, his head historically the yield curve inverts when there's a lot of fear or uncertainty that oh, no something bad's gon na happen and generally it's it's signaled a recession, especially the ten two now there's a debate. Does the yield curve have to stay inverted for a long period of time? If the covet pandemic didn't happen, would we have uninverted the yield curve and not had a recession? I mean think about it? Would we have had a recession without the pandemic happening right, uh, and so it's like? Did the yield curve in 2019? Just happened to invert because of short-term uh bond market fluctuations, and, and is it maybe not the best judge of recession? Nobody really knows it has been very consistent that at some point in the next 18 to 24 months, we might hit a session, but hey you look at this yield curve inversion from the code pandemic. It's like! Oh, that's not that bad, but you know what else is not that bad is that jobs report that we got this morning. You know we know the unemployment rate fell to about 3.6 percent.

Black unemployment fell to 6.2 percent, some of the greatest levels that we've seen in a while. Take a look at this one down here. The number of permanent job losers declined to 1.4 million in march and that's a little different from february of 2020, when the number of permanent job losers were 1.3 million. That's great, but another thing that's also great, is that almost every category gained jobs, with the exception of warehousing and transportation roughly flat down about a thousand, but the uh.

What was really great is the month-over-month payrolls increased about 13 cents. Now, in january, we i was really really sad because we had the sign of a wage price spiral starting. The report came in showing us an 8.6 rate of wage growth month over month and then annualized right, that's terrible because that's more than the rate of inflation was at that point which signals a wage price spiral. This is really bad and the university of michigan was telling us the same thing uh now that ended up getting revised down to 6.6, so they changed it like and then it's like, oh my gosh.

How manipulated is this data right? But anyway, the next month of february was zero and now it's 4.8. These are great. All three of these numbers here are fine. No wage price spiral, like one of my main fears that could have led us to a stronger like paul, volcker, style recession is gone.

Uh, not only do i not think we're going to get paul volcker by the federal reserve, but i do think that uh we are in a situation where our employment market is not overly hot. It's hot. We got like 10 million jobs available right, but it's not at a point where i think we need to get paul volcker, which, if we had a wage price spiral, the fed would do everything in their power to make sure uh. The wage price spiral does not become entrenched.

That would be very, very, very bad, so uh. Where does that put us now? Well i mean, if you think about it. Obviously, with a strong jobs report. Uh markets are going to probably price in a little bit of a higher chance of that 50 basis.

Point hike, so you're going to see a little bit of fluctuations on this. I think this is why, when we got a good jobs report this morning, at 5 30 a.m. I was watching this, i'm like, of course, nasdaq like instantly drops half of a percent. Why? Well? Because people are worried about that potential, uh, 50 basis, point hike, and i look at that even and i'm like dude.

This is not paul. Volcker, like i was worried in january that we were gon na get some kind of paul volcker, which would be like hey we're just gon na raise rates, two percent now, because inflation's so out of control, they're, not they're, not doing that uh, you know, even if They do a 50 bp hike, which now is getting priced in even more right. Now we look at about a 76 market a chance of of a 50 basis, point hike, so the market's kind of like yeah we're we're pretty confident. 50 bps can happen and even if it happens, who cares - and so this is where i also look at uh, where we are market wise.

We don't have any massive new fears to bring us down to like that, triple bounce that we had on the qqq here. We'll go ahead and pull up uh the qqq exactly and uh we'll look at it together right here. Look! We! We don't really have any new scary news uh. The reports that are coming in now are either benign or not worse, like sure things haven't gotten like substantially better, but if, if anything, oil prices, commodity prices are starting to settle a little bit uh, it looks like russia is focusing mostly just on the don boss, Which we expected we're moving away from this idea of an all-out war, we're moving away from this idea of nuclear weapons.

Russia is not cutting off gas supplies to europe. Things are settling down like cooler. Heads are starting to prevail now, but why do we have a little bit of red here? Well because, quite frankly, we shouldn't be in these upper bounds until really war ends. Until some of the madness goes away, we should not be trading above the or in the range of the top third or the s p, 500 uh or the uh.

The nasdaq, which we kind of still are actually no. We just dropped below it and on the spy we wore yesterday, uh so uh, not a big deal to me now. I was planning on shorting the nasdaq when we got into this level, because i think we would have had a pretty large drop this right here. Falling off a 61.8 down to 50, not super excited.

If anything. Yesterday i bought the dip a little bit uh because i'm keeping a lot of cash on the side for the expectation that we're gon na have some form of maybe a little drop and then a rebound, but not a lot. I mean i'm 85 in this market. I have more shares now than i did before uh in january, so i'm really happy about that and you are seeing some individual stocks run pretty decently uh and in my opinion, one of the things that you can do in this market is is really consider exposing Yourself to some upside protection like if you got some 90 calls, for example, on on trade desk.

Those are killing it today, uh. If you got some inexpensive out of the money, call options on an arc, invest or a matterport. Some stocks that have been depressed, hey, those could be inexpensive ways to either potentially lose all the money you put on that upside hedge or make a decent amount of money. But that way you don't have to go all in if you don't want to so it gives you an option of literally gives you an option right, just be careful, you know.

Obviously, options can lose value very quickly. You've got faded decay. You don't want to hold these things too darn long, but those are things to keep in mind. Those are things to consider not seeing wage price spiral, not worried about the economy.

Really, i'm super bullish. So i don't want to be like mega bull here and say: hey go reckless like me personally, just to be transparent. I've got about 430 000 in short-term call options like anywhere between four to eight weeks. I think that bond rotation we had yesterday uh and the day before is pretty much over, wouldn't be surprised if we end up the day green here and then end up having a pretty green period of time.

With a brief pause for cpi data, which we expect to be bad anyway, uh coming out, you know in a couple weeks uh, but then pretty much chillaxing until uh the fed actually uh has their meeting at the beginning of may. So we got quite a bit of time to wait for that 50 basis, point hike and really, even if we get it who freaking cares anyway. Those are my thoughts thanks. So much for watching go check out extra by the link down below and folks.

We'll see you next time. Thanks bye.