Hey everyone welcome back to another live stream in this video we're actually going to talk about the suits versus retail, so uh, even if you're watching this later. I think it's a good video to be aware of uh, i'm going to start by just. I want you to understand that uh. There are institutional products that exist out there, which you might not be familiar with unless you're an institution and these institutions literally take our data and they make trades based off what we are doing.

It is really incredible how much retail gets tracked to take counter trades to follow retail to front run retail it's insane. I mean people spend uh tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars just just to track retail and, what's what's really interesting, is i got this note that i wanted to talk about, and that is that listen to this i'll, just read this off for you, Retail investors aggregate participation gives lifts to equity markets, as institutional demand remains subdued now, what's interesting about that line, right there is most retail does not believe that most retail thinks it's just the institutions that are running the show, but you'd be surprised. Retail has a substantial amount of buying power and it's not just a matter of buying power. It's then you got ta match the order book right so when, when retail goes in and buys tesla or amc or gme, there aren't necessarily that many sellers at these like low prices that we've seen like how many people are really selling tesla in the 700s.

How many people are really selling you know gme at like 90 or amc at like 12 right, so when retail flips the script and starts buying the order book moves up really really fast, and so it's interesting to me that i've seen other youtube channels talk about How, oh it's only institutions manipulating the market, uh-uh retail, has a lot of freaking power. In fact, one of the patterns that has been true the last couple months regarding retail is. It seems that in the morning we get buys, we get a lot of activity buying. The dip in the morning midday things chill like we get a lot of activity in the morning.

Sometimes we get that early morning kind of institutional selling. We get some retail buying uh. We get a lot of volatility first thing in the morning, then we get kind of flatness throughout the rest of the day and then we tend to often see this sort of run towards the end of the day, and so it's kind of weird that we see This on the indices, but guess what's also true and the facts tell us this retail is most active at market open and market close, whereas like and that's probably because, quite frankly, us as retail, like a lot of us, have jobs right. So it's kind of like yeah, okay yeah.

We we can hop on and do some trades get our trades in first thing in the morning and then do some trades, maybe at close but the rest of the day. A lot of us we work, we've got jobs, got things to do, whereas institutions, you know they're sitting in their office trading or researching or studying or whatever they're doing all day long. So it's kind of an interesting thing to consider right is that retail. Has this sort of morning and afternoon uh priority for trading and uh and and then this was an interesting one as well.

Listen, this uh, okay and it's kind of worth mentioning that we had a little bit of a dippity dip. Actually, you know what i could throw this picture up yeah, you know what, let's let me show you this picture, because this is a really cool one, and this will show you uh something that's been happening with retail sentiment, so retail has been buying almost all year. Long, but has really gotten screwed doing all this buying. Since january i mean, if you think about it: retail's just been getting smoked.

All the buying the dip has been bad up until really february 24th and, like march 14th right that's when we started actually having an inflection point where it's like. Okay, now we're now we're actually moving, but take a look at this. Look at this chart right here. This is retail, buying right here, so uh the these lines right here, these like purple, uh bars right here.

This is all of the uh retail inflows and then the line right here this is the s p 500. And so, if you take a look at it, you can see. Retail has been pretty consistent at buying. We got our deputy dip over here in january and, if anything, this, like meaty thick part of the line, has moved up and retails like let's spend more money, but something that's been really interesting about the amount of money retail has is it kind of looks like Retail really kind of shot their load right here, uh, because you see how the purple lines you've got.

You've got much more density and height over here at the purple lines, but that you don't actually have as much of over here you're. Actually, probably you know if i were to draw an average over here december january - probably here average now february march is more like here. So, even though retail is powerful in moving markets right now, retail doesn't have the money retail used to have uh, which is kind of interesting to see, and this is exactly why i thought it was really important to take a break from shopping here in jan and Feb, wait for those the fear catalyst to come and go, and now we can go shopping, which is great and you are actually starting to see that retail buying come back. So i think that's pretty neat seeing that retail buying coming back over the last couple weeks reiterating why we're seeing this sort of move, but in addition to that uh we've got uh.

We okay. So here's a report here that retail uh the first two weeks of march almost capitulated like there's, there's this belief that, right before the fed meeting retail's like that's it, we're done, we've bought the dip so long we can't buy the dip anymore. We're done we're out of money and you saw all this capitulation and what i thought was needed is. I felt the same thing happening to the point where i sent the following: tweet i'll show you, if you don't follow me on twitter, yet you should follow me.

There, while i scroll to this, i do just want to give a quick shout out to the people who are taking advantage of that coupons in two days. Getting lifetime access to those amazing programs on building your wealth, uh, adam stocks and psychology of money, federico stocks and psychology of money, dolphin psych, jennifer stocks and psych jennifer also grabbed real estate, investing jeff stocks and psych solomon stocks. The site welcome aboard and alejandro welcome. Welcome welcome aboard okay, so what i want to show you here is on the 14th of march.

Take a look at this right here, 14th of march, i wrote this is peak fear in the stock market triple bounce on qqq. This is the key right here: low buying pressure, pre-fed meeting right we're on the bottom of the qqq here. Zero percent fibonacci third bounce over here right, this low buying pressure was was, is literally what ended up happening. I mean the 14th is probably honestly right, stupid wrong pen.

There see how tiny that little purple line is you can't even see it down there, because it's so tiny uh and so in my opinion, those are the juicy times to buy, because that's literally the definition of and people always say it, but very few people actually Do it, you know how people are like, oh, be fearful when people are greedy be greedy, when people are fearful when you have low retail buying right, like you do right here. That's fear! Right! That's scary! That's fear these. These your lower bars over here uh and then over here retail's getting a little bit more excited right, but i think it's too early to call this greed. I would say: greed really starts coming in when we start breaking new highs and some of the new the fib highs like, for example, if i go out to the day chart on qqq, i mean come on we're not even at 50 retracement.

Yet, like you can't really call this greed uh and it's always possible. We could rotate back down to 23.6 right, so you want to have a margin of safety in stocks like where you don't really have much of a margin of safety right now. Oh, not a surprise back under a thousand is tesla. You know a lot of folks after tesla runs they'll, ask me like kevin: should we buy tesla? Should we buy tesla and we were doing the course member live stream, and i think it was like at one at 10 40 this morning and uh i said uh.

I set a number above which right now, i'm not buying tesla, it's way lower than where we are now, and the reason for that is. I want safety. I want that warren buffett margin of safety. It's so easy to forget that that when you buy here at say, 10 40 or whatever it's much easier to fall to 900 and lose a lot of money, whereas if you're at a thousand right now, it's a lot harder.

If you have an average of - let's say 750 uh, just in the last few weeks, an average which i do just from again, the last three to four weeks of of tesla buying average uh. That gives me a lot more of a margin of safety. So that makes me comfortable, but also just keeping the tesla's about to turn red, but do keep an eye on uh on these, these retail flows and remember that as um. Oh look at that.

You've got a little bit of a breakdown right here on the qqq uh, as uh as as prices go up less margin of safety, so watch that retail flows remember beginning of the day, uh end of the day you get the biggest flows and listen to this Institutions here saying we suspect the post fomc rebound was largely driven by strong retail buying for equities. It is quite unusual to see strong retail buying during a rally of this magnitude, as retail are often contrarian investors, that's good uh. The increase in purchases suggests that institutional investors, on the other side of the trade, are hesitant to chase the rally or were hesitant to chase the rally at first. So you see a really big difference here between institutions and retail.

Right now quite interesting, i think uh. So so we'll see what happens and uh, and they this particular research piece over here goes on to say that uh retail investors uh, can have a larger than usual positive effect on stock prices, so kind of throwing water on this idea that retail can't move stocks. Retail moves stocks, and so we've seen that on flows here and again, retail also tends to be least active during the middle of the day. So it's very very common to see this middle of the day, like panic, almost kind of interesting.

So i i thought that was something neat to watch now. Obviously, we've got a lot of a lot of excitement happening over here. Gme amc a little bit of a chillaxing right now, probably because you're seeing uh, oh yeah, look at a firm kind of tanked on the intraday here as well. Uh you got you had that! Look at this terrible triple top! You had not so good right here.

So, look at that. That's that's! I mean you almost got a quad top right here, right, so bad sign, intraday uh. I actually like a firm a lot and uh, especially because of what's happening with consumer trends. Right now buy now pay laters up.

Consumer trends are up everything, uh kind of pointing in the direction of people, potentially borrowing buy now pay later or using, buy now pay later more but uh what else? A lot of um yeah big movement intraday today. This is another one of the reasons i actually personally like doing live streams more once the day has evolved rather than right at the beginning, because at the beginning of the day you get this and it's kind of like. Oh, my gosh you're just going straight to the moon, not necessarily uh, not necessarily anyway, so we could do a few questions. I suppose, if anybody uh has has a few questions, let me take a peek at it yeah i i think some charts could show greed.

I see the question here, look at this chart and tell me uh and tell me everyone isn't being greedy. I you know really. If you look at spy or qq and you go to the day chart, you know you're at 38 retracement. So, oh, that's the one hour.

Sorry one sec, you know again go to the day chart over here this. This is not i mean, maybe there's some greed over here and some fomo. But i i don't see uh substantial euphoria by any means right. Uh, yeah, tyson's.

One i'm researching that's a really good question: uh uh, it's not one! I've put any money into, but definitely what i'm watching uh yeah. I actually don't believe in the short squeeze theses. I believe that retail buying absorbs the order book and, and so you see, quick moves up. Airline air searches for air travel are, are the highest level they've been since uh 2019 problem you have with airlines is, is a low capacity to actually bring margin to pay down debt.

They got a substantial amount of debt. So it's a little bit of an issue. Yeah i'll put my face back down you're right yeah. We were doing a special thing this morning in the course member live.

So i had to put my face up there. There go back to there. There we go okay cool. Do you think, since trends are showing people spending more money on btc wheels right now, but maybe cardana's been killing it? That's the only one.

I've got thanks for not being a jerk to me. Oh no. Why would i be a jerk? That's a mullen. You know.

I'm curious, i i you know, i know it's a momentum, trade, let's see, how is it doing today? That's the second day in a row of red right, although not much. Yesterday, i did end up recovering towards the end of the day. Yesterday was adobe the company. You mentioned in the video this morning: uh i uh adobe is actually not a company that uh i threw money into.

I was disappointed with uh the earnings call. I was not happy with the earnings call. We talked about that a bit in the stream this morning. Uh aida's been doing great fern going to the moon.

Well, not right now. I think it kind of fell, unfortunately, but i do think a firm has a good shot of retracing back to that 80 to 100 sector, but the entire market right now is selling down a little bit. So we've got uh. We've got a drawdown.

I think the spy's down a percent right now, yeah it is spy down a percent yeah, so so you've got. You got a sudden kind of uh institutional sell-off happening here. That's at least my guess is that this is going to be heavily institutional, uh, heavy institutional selling, eight to ten dollars. I don't know about that.

Hey the courses are like 41 off or 42 off. Something like that, like it's pretty much 50 off, like just put the coupon code in you'll, see it yeah, mastercard visa, i'm always interested in these guys. You know, i think visas really compressed in valuation. They've got beautiful margins, really really great margins uh.

But honestly, i prefer a firm, you know. I know it's been a dog's stock like it's gone to crap i get it, but like fundamentally, everything i'm looking at is is saying no. No. There's like i want exposure to a firm, so i mean i was able to lower my cost basis in it about an average of 22 23 bucks, uh and harvest losses on it before getting back in.

So it was like beautiful from that sense like i'm being on it now, although i did buy a little bit this morning that i think i'm right on probably right on that's: okay, uh. Overall, it's it's still green, but uh yeah. You know as long as there's no recession. That's the big thing we go.

Recession direction affirms a problem as long as there's no recession. Americans are going to use this service more and more like i. I prefer a firm over visa so excited about that. Yeah lemonade's been kicking butt.

I mean it's doubled from like 14 low uh, that's another one that i really paying attention to tesla's going nuts yeah. It's it had. You know, wouldn't be surprised to see that oh look at that. It's trying to come back.

I mean these are just the the gyrations of the market. You you, if, if you let your emotions, be driven by the minute candlesticks, you will make mistakes. I hate to say this because you know people are like. Oh kevin, you stopped the live streams.

Why did you stop the live streams? Oh i'm gon na be fully honest here. One of the reasons i stopped the live streams. Oh let me go on hold on. I want to do this hard part.

One of the reasons i stopped doing. The live streams was because i had this thesis that i should sell in january and rebuy by march 16th. That was my thesis and i believed my thesis so hard. I followed my rules, i wrote it down.

I was transparent about it. I said exactly when i'd sell. I said exactly when i'd rebuy uh, i said i, i would harvest losses and get back. You know i everything that i said i would do.

I did. The problem, though, was it was emotionally draining. It was really really hard because, even though i wrote down my thesis and i'm like, i i'm very confident in this thesis, i think it's going to do extremely well, and i was right about that. If i sat and looked at the minute sticks all day long, i guarantee you, i would have screwed it up.

So i'm like i'm, not i'm not gon na look at the sticks anymore. I'm gon na stop doing the live streams. I can't handle looking at the minute sticks when i'm trying to make you know a more macro play right and - and so that's that's the trait i made you know like if i'm day trading, i'm going to look at i'm going to look at the minute. Candlesticks right, maybe the five minute candlesticks right, but if i'm doing a macro trade come on man, the the minute sticks are freaking noise.

I can't look at that crap uh, so it depends what you're doing like don't get me wrong. There's there's there's nothing wrong with the minute candlesticks. You look at minute. Candlesticks, it's okay, but but just you know, use the right chart for the strategy.

Will you do an end phase? Video? Maybe i don't know uh individual videos on stocks. I really should but yeah we'll see now you know, i think this is disingenuous to say you burnt little guys by selling everything. Well. First of all, i don't give advice, second of all, if, if anything you save money selling, if you copied it, you know, depending on what stocks you were in right, so uh yeah, i can't control the market, so i do think that's a disingenuous statement.

I, like your courses, thank you. I like how your name is screw college too, when you're saying that, because honestly, i think you will learn more in these, like i, i tell my kids like you, don't need to go to college. Just take the courses uh. It's true any thoughts on leaps versus just buying stock.

I i prefer just buying the stock. So looking at up, let me pull my portfolio up really quick. So, looking at my portfolio, i have, i think, it's like two hundred thirty thousand two hundred forty thousand dollars of of yolo calls your hair kevin stocks all right, we'll give it a sec. Oh thank you, jake, really appreciate it like it or hate it.

If you had exactly followed kevin's trades, you shouldn't you'd, be better off okay, so, okay, so my portfolio, i have a hundred sorry 200 and oh 268 thousand dollars of yolo calls um all in well actually, mostly in robin hood, because i thought, if we're gon na, Have yellow colors we may as well do it in robin. So that's my yolo portfolio, the rest uh is what is it uh, there's no margin! 20. What three point? Well, that's! As of yesterday's pricing, but i don't know it's roughly the same right now: uh 23.6! In stocks and crypto about 10 cash uh but i'll probably blow my cash on taxes anyway, so i'm pretty much all in like i don't. I don't really have much left to invest and no margin, and so you know we're coming out of a bottom too.

So it's kind of interesting um, but we'll see why is jeremy so pissy, i didn't know. Jeremy was pissed at you why the midday sell down yeah so watch the beginning. Part of the video i i midday is when retail, in my opinion, is least active, and you get this this sort of uh institutional pressure. It wouldn't surprise me that we get a recovery by the end of the day.

It doesn't necessarily mean we're going to go like nasdaq and spike green, but i wouldn't be surprised if we have the losses like. If we end up, you know down, maybe 0.4 or 0.5 could be wrong. Maybe it'll worsen. I don't know, but that's that's what we have been seeing at least doesn't necessarily mean if that'll continue: okay yeah, when you're 18, the biggest thing you could do is make sure you make more money focus on the top line, make as much money as you can There and then, of course, real estate and uh and and stay away from too much speculation, yeah reverse repo market.

Let me pull it up. Uh i haven't. I haven't looked in a few days, this repose okay and then i'll probably go get another cup of coffee. No yeah you've had a little bit of a pop-off there, uh in the reverse, repos yeah.

So what this is probably uh, a sign of is a liquidation by banks of bonds, so banks selling bonds and then parking the cash in the reverse repo market. I actually don't think it's a necessarily a bad thing. Uh. Thank you, jarhead for telling me not to pay attention to haters.

You know it's a psychological thing. You know it's one of those things where, like you look at 10 comments and they could all be positive and then there's one negative comment and that's the one you remember: that's the one that like lingers all day long, it's it's a terrible thing. It's uh the toxicity honestly of uh, a real i'm sorry of youtube. Okay, any other last-minute questions.

Don't worry about them. There you go. Thank you zero-sum david, perfect kevin is, i don't think, i'm a hater, why? Why would i be a hater uh, kevin thoughts on so far yeah, so the video that i made this morning, i think, is really good for you to watch on uh the small caps and and how small caps are kind of getting somewhat left behind now. There's this argument to be made that maybe, if small caps were getting left behind, that's the perfect time to buy them, but not necessarily if, if markets in general, retail and institutions think there's too much risk, maybe you wait for you, wait for that inflection point.

So sofa has a few problems, though right because sofi is relying about 20 of their income from the brokerage business and about uh what 50 60 of their business on on loans, which would be like student loans, mortgages right with rates going up mortgages and refinances go Down because people have already gotten their debt, so that's a problem and the second problem is um. The brokerage business is like nobody wants to invest in stocks anymore. You know it's not like the pandemic, where everybody's in on stocks, so you know people a lot of people have been burned out of the stock market. A lot of people have uh have uh, you know quit so uh and less people are signing up.

So that's my thought on so far your stocks and psychology course is it discounted right now it is, and is it bundled with real estate? It can be bundled with real estate if you want to bundle it with the other real estate course, and then you get an extra bonus discount in there volker's gon na happen yeah. That would be bad. If we get volcker, it would be very, very bad, hey kev, i'm a commodity trading advisor been a great year for me. Yeah commodities, crazy options trading today in the wheat market, with options around twenty dollars, which is double the market.

Now wow, oh man, whoo it'll, be interesting to jared, learn uh more about what you do. Please respond to what yeah i did sell. Sulfite puts for 15 dollars uh last uh, like you said last year, when we weren't expecting these kind of insane hawkish rate hikes right so yeah, i you know you have a little bit of sofa left. I think in my public my the met kevin dot com, slash public link.

I think i have some so far there but yeah it's down. You know that position is down like a lot like 40, it sucks matterport's getting caught up with with the other smalls right. Unfortunately, i it's a bummer, yeah dwack will be interesting. I i think it's substantially overvalued, but you know you've got kind of political buying pressure on the order book there and then people are hodling and not selling.

So i jim no, i mean i i mentioned the uh yield curve regularly. I'm not so worried about it, but let me look at it right now. It's probably going down again, i wonder if it's under 20, just because the market's selling down a little bit honestly flip-flopper should be a compliment. It's a pleb's way of saying he did research, i mean that's fair uh.

You know warren buffett flip-flopped on the airlines. Oh it's at 20.3, okay, it's actually kind of stable the yield curve. I don't like ggpi sorry ross way more interested. I like i'd rather put twice as much money in tesla, probably not at these prices, though i want a firm.

I want more a firm like give me another sale on a firm mq to diversify and be a binomial. I don't know because that's more of the the the card service that they provide, and i don't know as much that they do uh. I never heard anyone you taught teach thousands on the market and appreciate. Oh thank you for that.

Maybe loosen nvidia partnering would be great, would be absolutely great. Do you think disney is worth looking into? I love disney. I did a lot of research on disney yesterday. I do not like the amount of debt they have, but, quite frankly, most of their debt is very low interest and it comes from their acquisition of 21st century fox uh.

Oh, i meant to put this chart up. I never did yet. These are some of the most popular social uh retail trades today, nike nvidia gamestop boeing, alibaba, tesla, neo, qqq and emc and amazon. Those are your most popular retail trades today and i'll show, you least popular as well.

These are just the ones i track so least popular oil overstock target targets at the bottom. I actually like tarjay as a stock too oh yeah tarjay continues to fall um i mean it's recovered a little bit but tarjay. I'm a watch watch that one there's etsy. I don't have any etsy right now, roku's down here taiwan semiconductors down here as well.

I do think the whole like china invading taiwan thing is overblown so far, not good in terms of that retail momentum, even though it's got inflows, that's interesting, why they put it it had like five million dollars of inflows. I guess it's just the momentum is the way they're sorting this based on the green and right charts, yeah, that's what that is. Uh purple, jp morgan, build bear macy's, see these are sort of the uninteresting ones to retail right now square. Do cash apps, like i, don't know why cash app is trending yeah.

We talked a lot about this morning in the course remember live. That was a fun one. Remember if you use that any of the coupon codes for joining any of the courses you get lifetime access to the courses and, of course, the the live streams uh. As long as i do those i can't i can't promise lifetime access to live streams, because i i don't know how long i want to do them, but i've been doing them for four years and have no plans to stop the course member ones.

Those are great because that's really when, when we get a lot of my research theses out too, when running by y'all uh juan welcome juan to stocks of psychology and money, neo earnings tomorrow, yeah um - i don't think they're, i'm not i'm not highly enthusiastic because of The supply chain crises, but what i do want to do is tell you the implied volatility, because you want to be careful see yesterday, i i had a call option on invid no on adobe and i'm like. Oh it's earnings. Well, volatility is going to be highest. The day before earnings or the day of earnings, so i dumped my call option within 10 minutes of the close.

Thank goodness, i did because the stock's down like 10, so it worked out, but even if the stock was up 7 up, i would have probably lost that entire 7 on the option because of volatility crush after earnings, because seven percent was the implied movement. So options were already pricing that in so, let's just say, holding options into earnings. Usually a bad idea like i might sell options, um, probably not going into earnings either, because it's just you could go either way. I i look if i like the stock.

The biggest thing i would do is, i would just have shares it's it's not as sexy as as, like you know, the yolo calls and stuff, and i i get that you know i totally get it but uh it's much safer. You don't have to deal with theta decay, it's a lot less to pay attention to, with with the ball, crushing that yeah, amc and uh gamestop definitely have a lot of momentum right now and then they're also on our momentum. Trackers list right. Here's your momentum! Your top stocks, in order of momentum today, uh there we go anyway puts on oil, i'm tempted because it keeps going up.

We should talk to that commodities expert though, but i am watching oil like a hawk, and i really really really really really want to see this go to uh and, as oil goes up, it's going to hit stocks. I really want to see this break the 78.6, and you know somewhere between here, i might have to short, very, very, very risky good way to lose. Money is to short stuff. I usually hate shorting, i'm just such a big fan of train america.

You know and uh really do think i i consider myself a very much a long-term investor. I know some people think that's insane like why. Why would you sell then and re-buy? Well, i made a trade within my long term. You know i could do that.

Nobody says you can't do that, but it's not like i'm trading my portfolio every single day, people are gon na chill out. Yeah spies, spies down a percent now so you've got some pain in the market right now short tattoo chef instead of uso. You know how much worse can tattoo chef get. Let me tell you how much worse it can get it's at 12 and 21 cents right now, so your downside is 12 dollars and 21 cents uh.

Oh really nvidia, announced yesterday. That lucid is one of the customers. Oh, that's good! That's good! That's! Actually! That's good! That's good, big news! We got to get that incorporated and then let me tell you if i see nvidia software start showing up on the lucid and the software sucks. I will dump my nvidia shares.

So i will look forward to uh to that. I will look forward to that substantially yeah and i, like i said, i'm mostly allocated to stocks, but i will say i know we're going to have a very volatile environment here going forward if we uh. If we continue to see pain, uh, you know over the next few weeks or whatever, and we certainly will over the next few months, we're gon na. Have these one percent up one percent down days pretty regularly uh they create little buying opportunities.

Quite frankly, uh i mean i think there there'll be more buying opportunities to get cardano cheaper. I think there'll be more buying opportunities to get a firm, cheaper, uh tesla cheaper. So i don't think you need to get impatient. If you want to be allocated, you can be, but you know at these levels, you should probably expect downside before you expect upside, so kevin seems less salty and more balanced.

Today. What are you trying to say? Uh yeah, you're, right, stable coins do deserve some. Some allocation right now, i'm i'm less worried about stable coins now than i have been in the past. I'd be more in i'd, be more considering the idea of staking, but i hate the idea of locking the lockups.

No, you know i'm not so worried about the fed and the rate hikes. It would have to be a rug, pull level. That's what we would need. Rug, pull level, that's a great plan on real estate right there.

Okay, i got ta go thanks. So much for uh joining this sort of midday. One we'll see you later goodbye.