What's going on guys good morning, welcome to your morning video it's my third attempt to make this, but we're going to give it a go this time. So what we have for you today is something a little different okay for those of you that keep up with the videos. You guys know that we were talking about standard error a little bit in the past, and we had this update coming. So if you already have the standard deviation script to boiler trading, we have an updated, uh new version within that um package.

You guys have already purchased if you've purchased it okay, but nonetheless, what i want to cover are the differences here. So this one is the deviation, standard, deviation, okay, so it's going to type in s, t a n - and this is s-t-a-n error. Okay, so just want to point out the big differences. Okay.

So when you look at the market bottoming over here on the standard deviation. Bottoming here bottoming here, bottoming here on the standard deviation. Yes, there were levels, you know - and this doesn't look perfect anymore, because it's kind of passed since then, so things have changed slightly. But i wanted to point out that if you look at the difference between the standard deviation and the standard error, you would see that you know this last bottom here and this bottom and this bottom we're right on the negative three and negative four.

And when you look at the bottom for the standard deviation system, arguably there was a negative three in the sixth month, but just for the time being, you can see that you know if we're looking at this specific time frame, only long term levels. We were at a half deviation, so we were in between the negative two and in between the negative three right. Whereas if you look over here, we were pretty much directly bouncing off of the negative three and the negative four. So the concept here that i want to kind of get you guys to wrap your head around is when you're thinking of a bell curve in statistics.

Okay, the negative well, this would be plus 3 and the negative 3 would actually be over here, and these are very outlier events, so the concept here is, if you were looking at the standard error, the standard error was telling you that we were in a high Probability, bounce area here and here not that you probably couldn't figure that out in other ways, but from a visual perspective using the standard error, it would have been saying: hey we're right at negative three and we're right at negative four, whereas, if you're looking at the Standard deviation, the standard deviation you were in between negative two and between negative three, so you could have been like well. Are we gon na go down here and then bounce so just trying to help you guys wrap your head around the probability statistics a little bit more. So what we're getting at is that, based on the standard error system, you could be provided some higher probability representation as opposed to the standard deviation system and there's some key differences that are more so than what i've already discussed with you here. But anyways want to cover that so today we're going to be working on the uh, the standard air uh system here with you guys so um, let's get into it all right, so markets yesterday ran all the way um oh hold on.

Let me get into my 20 day one minute chart here: sorry, if i'm getting a little confusing today, my apologies and for all the beeping and stuff going on in the background, all right. So looking at the standard error system, okay, we have the spy um. So, for the time being, the resistance on the market for the spy is pretty much here. Okay, you can see why the spy stopped there.

We had some standard error, statistical levels so until the markets are clearing that 447 price 447.01, probably not going to see too much aggressive, uh buying or you know, bullish trending moves. So for now we have slight support on the spy at 4. 45. 31.

We need to hold that and get up and clear the 447.01 to continue seeing some upward momentum on the market. Now, let's say just for you know, simple purposes: markets snap down out of here bigger support levels would be all the way down towards 440 to 437.47. Okay, say we cruised out to the upside next big rip zone would be up to 451 to uh, 450 250. Call it okay.

Now i'm going to pop over to the nasdaq all right. So now we look at the nasdaq here and let me delete a couple of these old drawings. Okay. So now, when you look at the nasdaq geez, oh peace, people calm down it's nine o'clock in the morning, i'm working all right.

So when we look at the nasdaq here, you will see. Obviously the nasdaq has some statistical probabilities that go all the way up to 358.10 to 354.26. So you know that the spy had some resistance like here so right now we kind of have a lot of upside resistance, in my opinion, so you can see yesterday was kind of a battle day um. So i think, arguably we might see a pullback going into today so either way it doesn't really matter to me what directions we fully go, but we do have some probability levels down at 347 on the nasdaq all the way down to 344..

So what i want to do is rather than confuse you guys with all these different levels. I just want to go to the long term level chart okay, so that we can make it a little more simple and when we look at the long term level long term levels. This is where the market's at this is where the market's boxed in so you're. Not going to get a big breakout, trending move until the nasdaq is above 354.26.

Now i thought i just turned the volume up. What is stupid? Phones, stupid phones, technology right and we're not going to get a big break down until the market is actually below 3. 343.85, so you can see the market sell down to that point and then bounce right and you can see the market push up to here and still get rejected so for now there's a let's call it a 10 box in the market right yeah, it's about a 10 box, so the market right now is going to trade in between this 10 range, and you can see big whip saws in between it until you get above you're not breaking out to the upside until you get a below you're, not breaking out to the downside. Okay and let's go do that on the spy really quickly and then i'll get this video posted for you guys all right.

When you look at the spy, the market is actually above the one-year weekly here. So this was the box we were trading in, which was from 445 to about 438, all right. So, in the event, the markets cannot hold above the top of that box and we start to fall back under that's where we could very well see markets push lower into the 38, but start trading back in that range. So, for the time being, um, what you're really looking for is to see if the spy maintains this that level right there.

If the spy does not maintain this say today or going into the next day, and we start to break below call it 4. 45. 31. So we go like this break below maybe hold a little bit of a lower high off that then we could see markets do something like that.

Okay, so for now me going into this morning, i'm specifically watching the price of 445.35. In the event, we start to take that out. That's where we're going to expect the nasdaq and everything else is going to start getting a little bit more weakness, all right guys if you have any questions, leave them in the comment section below with that being said, i'll see you in the next video.