So listen. I wan na really stress this out. The worst thing you can do right now is just be an idiot. In fact, i can't think of a worse time to be an idiot than in a crazy volatile market like we have right now.

So i want you to listen to me and listen very carefully, because i'm about to save you from being an idiot look, this is a crazy market. You don't know. What's coming, nobody knows. What's coming last week we saw the s.

P 500 go up by 6.1 percent, clawing back almost half, in fact more than half in fact less than half since i don't know math 6.1 after dropping 13 in 10 weeks. So you saw a 10-week decline 13 and then a 6 spike in the single week. That smells a lot like we found the bottom, but i want to warn you and i want to explain to you why you got to be careful with these assessments, because whenever you have what seems to be a reliable bottom and by the way my my friend Used to own the bar used to be called the reliable bottom yeah a lot of stories from that part whenever you think you find a reliable bottom and and especially if you have some fomo sprinkle on top of it, some greed sprinkle. On top of that, you have this very crazy situation where it almost becomes indistinguishable from a dead, get bounce or from kind of a relief rally.

Nobody really knows now. The one thing this whole you know, stock market rally, slash bounds, is relying on is a few things that happened last week. One of them is positive sentiment out of ukraine. People were betting, at least slightly on ukraine and russia figuring out how to make things work.

Now, they're still in talks, but there's no agreement and i haven't heard of any agreements, so i wouldn't bet on that. Without having more information, they might get a deal done today or it might take a month. Nobody knows i want you to be careful with assuming that they're reaching a deal so ignoring that look, there's a lot of signs that this might be a good bottom. For example, the s p 500 went through the death cross last week.

Again, i'm not a trader and i don't pay attention to stuff like the death cross as a i don't just trade stuff, i'm in my portfolio forever, but i do pay attention to events as far as defining events such as a flattening yield curve. The death cross. Now the death cross, even though it sounds very ominous - it's actually a sign that this might be closer to the bottom than what people think, at least in the long term, but that's kind of a more a long-term indication. Basically, like a year-long indication, it doesn't mean we're going to have green weeks in the next few months.

Nobody really knows, but that's an interesting indicator also, the main part that why i think we saw the rally is because the fed actually gave us certainty. The worst thing you know for the market is uncertainty, and if there's one thing we want from the fed is for them to be freaking clear about what they want to do and after dragging us on for a long ass time, they actually came out and said: Hey this is exactly what's going to happen this year, 0.25 plus six, more hikes, that's it so we know exactly what's happening this year. We have full certainty. It also helps that these are historically low rates, even at the end.

This year, when we hit two percent, it's gon na be in a historically low rate. So basically the fed is giving us a green light to continue for a bunch of reasons which i won't get in this video, but i mean their hands are pretty much tied. So we have the fed actually giving us runway uncertainty. Oil prices are staying steady around the 100, which is high, but not at 130 140, like we saw in 2008, for example, or even like two weeks ago, so pandemic seems to be getting better in the us right.

There's a whole different ball game in china. Right now we'll talk about in a second, but in the us it seems to get getting better. So you have all these positive indicators. You have also a lot of um share.

Buybacks companies are buying back shares, nobody's issuing your shares. It's a positive sign that the stocks are oversold right and you have a lot of beaten down stocks like palantir like arc like some of them deservingly like palantir, the worst stock in history. Some of them are not, but there's a lot of indicators for a bottom, and i totally get why people want to think that this is the bomb. The question is - and this is the real kicker here is - are there any indicators that this is not the bottom and i'm going to tell you right now? Yes, there are and quite a few.

For starters, this is pretty much still at this point. We're 90 on the s p, 500 in the last two years, even right now, after the drop that we saw in the last few months, the s p 500 is up 90 over two years. That's crazy! My guy! The other thing is the stock market doesn't own! You jack, they don't owe you nothing. You should never have a sense of entitlement after a long decline of 10 weeks.

The stock market owes you nothing so food for thought, plus the stock market can pretty much stay irrational much longer than you can stay, solvent and a whole bunch of other cliches. Like you know the game, is you know it then, over until the lady sings and you know, and but the other part is you have to understand. There's a lot of stuff going on in the world that make it very uncertain place covet is ramping up in china. Nobody knows where that's leading russia and ukraine are at war.

Two massively crucial commodity and energy powerhouses are at war. Nobody knows where this leads sanctions potentially issues with china, so i'm just saying that this is a highly highly irrational market, a lot of panic selling a lot of panic, buying it's a very uncertain environment. So before you basically decide that this is the bottom and you're going, you know balls deep into this market which the market may go up like crazy. Nobody knows, that's the whole point.

Nobody knows what's going to happen, but before you make a decision just make sure you understand that this is a very volatile time and at least for me it would be prudent to keep investing long term in companies. You have a long horizon on. If that's your kind of strategy right, then indicators like the death cross - and you know the relative - you know weakness of tech stocks might be a good indicator to get into now. If you have a five-year horizon, if, if you haven't bet on an idiot or on a loser - and it's actually a good company, then the only thing you're risking is your time and your liquidity, because eventually the stock will catch up with the company like a palantir.

For example, in my opinion, but also i would also urge you to not take on any leverage right now. That's a no, no, not in this crazy market, no leverage - and i would also tell you again just my opinion: it's not financial advice, just my opinion. My opinion, all i'm gon na tell you right now - is just be careful and tread very carefully. It's okay to participate in this and you might make a lot of money, but hey, don't be fooled by people who scream inflation inflation.

If you don't, invest you're going to lose all your money, no inflation will devalue your buying power, but the stock market will take everything you have, including your underwear, which is worse than the divorce. So just be careful whatever you do. Be careful tread carefully, be analytical. Don't be emotional and don't formal and don't let greed take over you be very, very careful opportunity.

Costs are a thing. I understand this, but it's much worse to lose everything you have because nobody knows when they drop the floor beneath them. So be careful. That's all! I'm saying okay see you boys and girls soon.