Good morning, guys welcome back to your morning, video i'm going to get ready to run over a bunch of different things here on the market, we're going to talk about some trend lines, some candlestick patterns, statistical probabilities, and so hopefully, by the end of this morning, video You guys will be pretty caught up to speed, so first is going to start with some downtrend lines like so boom. I'm just drawing mine really quickly. You don't have to be entirely perfect, but the the concept is. This is the direction of the trend or it was, and these were the high points of those downtrend marks, and we have just broken through that here, all right.

So if you go on twitter today, you'll see a lot of people talking about the downtrend line. Break you'll, probably see some people discussing the double bottom or potential triple bottom here that led to a big bounce. All right, if you switch the chart to a daily time frame, you'll see that on the daily chart daily candles, we have a candlestick pattern. It's called the white soldiers or charging soldiers, if you may, which is supposed to be a bullish interpretation of the market, because you have three solid, full body charging green candles.

I think, when the time that name was made, they called it white, because people use the white and black candles but anyways. So you have three charging white soldiers here. That's supposed to be a bullish continuation, uh pattern uh regarding candlesticks. That's how you would interpret that.

Okay, now we've talked about the candlesticks. We talk about double bottom. We talk about trend lines, getting broken. Okay.

What's next now we could maybe talk about moving averages. We could talk about. You know the statistical probabilities, if you may so now, when we look at uh, say the four hour time frame, um all the levels that are being presented here. All these lines are weekly statistical, probability levels, each level that goes or sorry each level on the chart.

When the price goes through it, it's you break down or a break out. Okay. So with that being said, when you look at this one here we broke out, we pulled back retested breakout. Then we move to the next.

We hold resistance following day we break through. So we break out, we pull back and we didn't truly tag it perfectly. But you might argue, that's your pullback and that's your retest of the breakout, okay and even like here right. We were going down, we finally kind of broke under and then we gapped back up into it now it's kind of a retest and down, arguably not the most perfect example.

But you get the point okay. So now i'm gon na hop over to the nasdaq and just kind of basically repeat most of the same stuff. You guys just saw okay. So when we look at the nasdaq should pretty much be the same story, trend lines down down and we've broken those trend lines.

Okay, you can see that the market has put in a funky divergence, double bottom okay cool. Now, if we go to the daily chart, it's probably gon na have the three white soldiers, because spine and nasdaq are pretty much the same exact thing at the end of the day. Not really, but you know what i mean so here you go. You have your three charging white soldier candles.

Again, that's a bullish move and it's supposed to signal um. You know more gains to come based on candlestick pattern and interpretation. So with that being said now we're going to go to the four hour chart. Looking at the four hour chart, you know exactly why the market is stopped where it stopped this morning.

So if you look at the nasdaq, the nasdaq has a statistical probability priced at 354.79. As soon as we flip this time frame to say a 20-day one-minute chart. You will see that this top wick candle ends up being right on that price point. If you can't already visualize that, based on the time frame we're on now before i continue.

If we go and look at the spy now remember nasdaq 79 resistance point: you go! Look at spy: why did the spy stop here right? Why the spy pull back? It's because the nasdaq ran into uh some resistance, so i'm actually going to do like something like this and then i'm going to bring up the nasdaq here on this chart. I'm gon na pop this into a 20 day, one minute which isn't there do it like that, and then i'm gon na do something like i did over here. Okay, disregard these lines that keep moving okay, so was that a ghost whip candle that might have been a ghost with candles, the first time i'm looking at this view, i have to take some stuff off. It's just getting stupid, um, okay, one second cool.

So this actually looks like it was a ghost wick candle, okay, that makes more sense all right, so the market really never traded to that high price this morning, that was a go switch candle. So that means there's a good chance. You will see the markets at 355 today on the nasdaq and since the spy has a beta of 99 and the nasdaq has a beta of 134, that would mean for every dollar and 34 cents. The nasdaq goes up.

You can expect a dollar increase in the spy, so let's say we open at 350 and we run all the way up to 355.. That's a total of five dollars five dollars, so we could expect that the spy. Let's see we go to 355., that's a five dollar move, so we're going to see that the spy is probably gon na be going up closer to 448, something like that. 449.

um yeah. That's totally logical yeah, because if this is gon na go five dollars, then we expect this is probably going to go like maybe four dollars up um, so anyways not to be confusing uh. There's a ghost wick so most often times the market. The same day will go back up and it will target that ghost wick candle that gets performed pre-market uh if it doesn't happen the same day.

It's going to happen, but the next day, a couple days but uh most often times that that wick, that is performed pre-market by one of the indexes, is going to get tagged same day next couple days, all right. So with that being said, we're still more on to a bullish move in the market, sure we can get a pullback and things of that nature. But for now, when we look at the way the market is set up between the nasdaq and between the spy, we know that we have a small short term resistance here on the spine. You can see that dotted line in there, so that's a small short term resistance.

Then we have our support right there. So currently the market is boxed from here to here. Until you surpass either one of those price points, you're not going to trend out or really trend down too much, you can pull down till that price point and then bounce again, all right. So when we look at the nasdaq, you will see that the nasdaq has resistance here and it has support here.

So, in the event you see, the markets do a pretty ridiculous, pullback and say the nasdaq actually goes all the way down to here. The 344 343 440 right into that area. That's where you're going to want to start looking for your bounces uh, vice versa. Spy runs all the way down to about 442 area.

That would be where you would first look for a bounce. Okay, so um i mean that's, that's kind of it. You know i can keep talking more, but we should expect that ghostwick is going to get tagged in the next couple days, whether it be today, we've had a really strong bullish move over the past four days. The market always gives some back, so it would not be surprising to see the spy or the nasdaq pulled down today, bounce late day or tomorrow, or what have you, but for now, i'm on the side of looking for short-term pullbacks into support before buying up and Going long again, now, of course, if the market doesn't pull back and it just rips, then it just rips, but for now i'm kind of on that side of looking for some sort of pullback on the market.

Now we'll say this: you can see the market already pulled back on the spy right. Spy went up to 445 445 67, and what did it do it pulled all the way back down to its most recent statistical probability break. Remember that all these statistical levels are a breakout so ready we go up here. We create like a flag on the day and then it breaks out all right.

That's a breakout! We go to the next statistical probability up here, which is right there and then it finds resistance and when it pulls back, where does it go basically down to the previous statistical probability that broke out all right? So some people may not see it like that, but this dip. I don't even see this as a dip. I see that as a retest of the breakout, which was right there right that's the way. I view it.

It's a pullback, it's a you know down move. It's a dip, but it's really just dipping down to a previous breakout. The market has done okay, and so, when you look back at the nasdaq right, the nasdaq broke out, arguably that pullback did or did not test at the time. I can't remember so here is the deal.

It's like nasdaq may go all the way back down to 344 to retest that breakout area, but it can only reach here if the spy breaks this. Okay, remember that the uh, the beta for the beta for the nasdaq is uh dollar 34 right when i say that right hold on there, it is yeah, so it's a dollar, 34, okay and uh. The beta here is 99 okay, 99.. So when you think about it, this drops from like here to here that would be basically starting right there.

That drop alone is, let's see what it comes out to it's about. 560. Okay, so that's a drop of 5.60, so we're gon na do a little cute dollar sign 5.61, all right! So that's a drop of 5.61 cents! There! All right now flip this over! Here we go from here down to say that level about right there, all right that is going to be a drop of what that will be a drop of about two okay. So that's only a drop of two dollars.

Okay, so this is going to be a drop of two that looks terrible because i didn't get it in the middle there we go buddy all right, so it's a drop of two dollars so for every two dollars that the spy drops you could expect. The nasdaq will go down about a dollar 34., all right, so if we drop to here then that means the nasdaq will be. Let's see hold on one second, god damn it almost almost sport it's monday morning. So if we go down two, this is going to go down 268, so 268 would be right there about there.

So i'm going to mark a line here, all right. So in the event, the nasdaq sorry, the spy runs down to retest. This break point again, where we just map that off that box, going to that'll be a two dollar move down for a two dollar move down on a spy you're going to expect the nasdaq is going to be down about two dollars and, whatever i said, 68 Cents, so the market on the nasdaq will probably be somewhere around 347 at the time the spy pulls down to these levels and then at the nasdaq uh, sorry so so confusing. If the spy does not hold 442 16, then we can expect that markets may slide out a little more, which then takes the nasdaq closer into these probability lines.

Now these probability lines are going to slightly adjust at the open. So arguably, we might even be saying that the probability lines are like right there, it's hard to say for sure right now, when you see them readjust and recalibrate towards the open but um. I myself was not really expecting to see the spy back and running below the price of 442. Today, i kind of thought we would hold that uh but in my opinion, one with, i think, with uh, very good certainty if the market were to run down to 344 in the nasdaq that'll, be a good bounce spot.

So i'm really not seeing markets below that. Uh today, i didn't even think we'd get below the 442 on the spy and um upside destination. Targets can very well be the 350 479 price 355, which is that pre-market wick top from the nasdaq, and, if that's not today, it could be tomorrow. Uh next couple days, uh do remember we have broken the downward trend line, price action.

Uh the market has gotten back up above some moving averages that people would see is important. Uh the daily chart has provided us a charging white soldier candlestick pattern, which is a bullish pattern um. So that's all i have for you guys today hope you guys enjoyed the video and i'll catch you guys on the next one.