What's going on guys, welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys for tuning in on today's morning, video! So this is what you can expect today: retail sales, retail sales, import price, import price, blah blah blah blah. Most importantly, fomc announcement on the fed funds rate 2 o'clock, 2 30 pm fed chair mr powell news conference. This is really where a lot of the volatility is expected to come into the market. Today, generally on days like this, we could see slower markets leading up to it still see some good moves, but a lot of times things can get funky.

Sometimes it's not the case either way, it doesn't really matter end of the day. Fomc 2 uh. 2. P.M.

2, 30 p.m, fed funds rate you can see right here. This is what we're expecting 0.25 raise. If we get anything different than that, then yes, there might be additional volatility in the market because the market doesn't like things they can't expect. So as of right now, you should kind of expect that the 0.25 uh basis point hike, has already been priced into the market.

So as long as that's what the market gets, then i don't really see anything too crazy happening with the market myself. I don't think by us getting a 0.25 raise that the market's gon na get slammed to the downside um it's actually healthy for the market to raise rates. So as long as the rates aren't getting raised so fast or we don't get anything, that's so unexpected, then i think the market's already priced and everything and should have the price in for the time being. So that being said, doesn't really matter what i think, all right so um here it is yesterday we had mentioned that uh 420 150 was a level on the spy.

Once you broke that, then you could open up the doors for the nasdaq going up to about 328.10. At the time you can see now the price is 329.47, so yesterday, over 421.50 on the spy opens the door for the nasdaq running up to 329's. Pretty much. Okay, so now we've done that all right now we're going to jump into a little bit of a more granular view here, 20 day, one minute 20 day, one minute all right and actually before i do this 20 day, one minute um.

Let's look at this time frame here, so you can see that we're kind of back testing this kind of previous top area, so we ran up and then we got sold down. I just didn't really expect we're going to get anything similar to that sort of pullback off of these levels here or off this high, so sure i do agree with a pullback. I just don't think that this pullback is going to be so massive that it looks anything like that. Maybe i'm wrong, maybe i'm not again for what it's worth um.

I just don't think we're going to get some crazy, aggressive pullback, like that, and the reason being is when we were here bouncing up into these high levels and we sold down this at to me. There was still potential of just a counter trend move where we kept creeping into lows, which we tried to do again now: we've gotten a super aggressive straight shot up. So to me, that's the market saying for now we're kind of cool on not being down there. We'd rather be somewhere in this balance, so i don't expect that what you're seeing um right now like this little smidge of a move down, i don't expect it to turn into this sort of pullback that just rips all this apart.

That's just not what i was expecting all right, so for me um. The way i see it is we are into a small resistance zone, nowhere near as strong as just that view that i showed you. So this is a small little resistance zone. Okay, so whichever way the market takes out of this zone for the time being, is going to dictate sort of that next momentum move on the day and let me grab some arrows you'll see right here.

The nasdaq has support coming up at about three three three, two one, so we're expecting that this pullback goes down to about three three three, two one, and only if we can actually go below that three three, three, two one will we start even considering the idea Of the market filling the gap on the day back down towards 329.47. So for me, my max downside, target early morning for the day is nasdaq 329.47 and the reason for that is again. This 329 47 yesterday was a breakout and we haven't even really retested that breakout. We just ran through that breakout, so for us to come back down off this gigantic rip, retest that breakout and then maybe bounce seems totally logical to me again.

Remember right now the average true range for the market is about 9 10 ish in that area. So um we can still see some good fluctuation on the market, whether it be up or down. I hope i don't get too confusing here, but um we do have the possibility, for a nine say, a nine dollar move, so we're at three three three four seven here pretty much come back down to retest that level so yeah something we could do is go. Okay, let's say the market opens about here - runs down to there, that's gon na be a drop of four bucks and then somehow it rallied up and bounced.

So that would be four down, and then we ran up to three three seven. That would be four up. So to me, if we did a whipsaw day down and up so i mean we take back a lot of gains, then somehow break up on the day. I would say this is going to be your boxed range for the day from here to there.

That would be a whip saw day where you go down and up creating a nine point, move with uh, some of it being bearish and some of it being bullish. Now, if you just went straight rip show to the upside without filling the gap, then you know you could say best case scenario would be uh nine dollars up. So if we're going to go best case scenario up from open, say it stays here, you go up. Nine bucks oops - sorry, that's not gon na work like that we'll go up! Nine should take us to about this level, so you can see we're up about 760., so anywhere.

The 341 3 4106 just slightly higher, would be about a nine point. Move up. You know it'll be straight rip show. I don't really think that's going to happen.

I would be more expecting of a whip saw day if a pull, if anything, a pullback and then see if we can hold going into uh that announcement about the fed's fund rate. So, for me, i'm kind of cool with seeing the market pull back. Try to fill some of this gap simultaneously coming back to to retest this 329 45 breakout. We never even got a retest during the pre-market we kind of pull back on this candle which didn't even get there.

So arguably, a retest of this breakout is still in play, uh for me, so um. I i think that's i think we're pretty pretty set there. It's all i'm really kind of anticipating um, if anything, yeah all right, um these areas up here, four, four, three, eight and actually i'll talk about that really quickly. So let's say we go straight.

Rip show up spy into these areas. You can see, see, look at the little number there right in this box. You can see where it says, plus two six, nine right there, that's the amount of dollars up. So if we keep going up we're up six, we just hit our first deviation level of seven we just hit.

Our second deviation number of nine, so this to me is going to be your top area for the day if we went straight rip show up. Secondly, aside from these colorful orange deviation resistance points. You see, you see this trend line here and that white trend line there. Those are long term price action trend lines over cross, the tops of the market that started, and it has been the downtrend since the high of the spy.

So you can see that these plus one deviation resistance marks, also line up with downtrending price action. Resistances from the all-time high of the s p 500. So this is probably a very well known, um pullback, if not resistant spot. In the event this ran up today went up tomorrow, but just in general, it's going to be kind of when your next potential good resistance spots.

You can see that the uh, the nasdaq already pulled back to that green line, we're talking about and it's not that it had to go very far. But the concept is that this is going down and it's pulling back. What's the next probability area, we should touch and it'd be that statistical level, so pull backs fill gap. Re-Test breakout seems highly likely to me um, either way for what it's worth.

That is today's morning. Video hope you guys like it, take care, and i will see you in the next one.