Hey everyone me kevin here boy, oh boy, i'm excited today because there's actually some good news, but it's news that the mainstream media doesn't really want you to be paying attention to, because the mainstream media wants you to keep lingering on fear that inflation's getting so bad Because oil and commodity prices are out of control because there's war, but i mean this is true: there is war. Commodity prices have skyrocketed, though nowhere near to the levels that jp morgan or goldman sachs have suggested. When we were running up to 130 dollars per barrel. Jpm and goldman sachs were like that's it.

That's it we're going to 165 we're going to 180 we're going over 200.. It's almost kind of like when jp morgan told us to buy nikola stock because it was a good story, stock yeah. So there is good news here, but again the mainstream media doesn't want us to know about it. Uh the first good news has to do with ppi uh and now initially, when we look at ppi like we look at what behrens is saying, we're like wait.

A minute kevin this this is this is bad news. Producer prices are up 10 year over year. Of course, we've got big inflation right now. We absolutely have big inflation right now.

In fact, it's probably understated by this and month over month. It's up point eight percent. I mean annualized, that's like nine point: six percent! That's not that's! Not good! That's high! So kevin where's, the good news. Well, barons left it out.

Barons did not talk about the good news in their article because their title is. Inflation is a problem. Today's ppi just confirms it but wait a minute. You all either didn't read the report or you purposely left out something that came in really really good.

Now again, i just want to reiterate this. We know we know we know we know. Commodity prices have gone up. A lot fortunately, they've come down a lot.

Wti crude sitting right below 97 per barrel brent at about 101 natural gas prices, young commodity price is coming down wheat, getting a little less expensive, we're starting to see some of these commodities come down. This is good, and this becomes really important because when we jump on over to the actual ppi report, we're going to see something amazing in this. In my opinion, it is a sign of good things to come, especially since i believe we're going to have a very positive federal reserve meeting tomorrow and they're, going to probably be referencing what's happening in producer prices, especially core ppi. Now core ppi strips out food prices, which we know have gone to the moon and they're, still going to go to the moon next month's report.

When we actually get the full dose of what's happening because of war strip out energy prices, which we know those have gone up and also they trip out strip out trade services which those were actually negative. So if anything stripping out trade services would mean more inflation. In the core ppi because trade services came in negative, but that's what core ppi is. So when you look at ppi and you take out the volatile parts, trade services, which was negative - that would make inflation less so forget about that one for a moment.

But then you take out food and energy, which we know those are going to the moon. When you take those out you're left with core ppi, we had an expectation. The market was pricing in core ppi to come in on a month-over-month basis of 0.6. That would come out to an annualized 7.2 percent - that's not so great right, but it came in less than that and i want to show you how much less than that it came in, but i want to give a quick shout out to our sponsor today.

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Less food, energy and trade services, which remember trade services, were negative, came in at just point two percent, substantially less than economists expected and at an annualized rate of only two point, four percent. This is really really good. Now we know that some sections came in hot final demand for goods came in hot, came in at 2.4 for february. This is insanely high right, but listen to this two-thirds of the increase can be traced back to what the increase in the final demand energy category because of oil, natural gas prices right, two-thirds can be attributed to that.

So why did final demand? Good prices go up. So much well, two-thirds of it had to do with energy, which we know has gone to the moon. In addition to that, you can attribute about 40 percent, says it right here. Nearly 40 percent of february's increase in uh goods in the final demand good sector can be attributed just to gas prices just gasoline.

It says that that doesn't even include oil. So when we start looking at this report, we're like wait a minute yeah look. There is stubborn inflation goods are going up, companies are raising prices when we look at the inflection points, though, on a month-over-month basis, and we start taking out some of the things like food and energy ones that we know have been sort of destroyed because of the War, we actually have pretty good news now. I want to show you this to you graphically.

Take a look at this. This is directly from the bureau of labor statistics. This is their graph on the final demand, less food energy trade services, and you can see it's. It's you know been trending up since about 2014..

We obviously had a substantially uh quicker run here, but look at this particular chart. This is one of the first times we've actually seen core ppi coming this flat since the beginning of the pandemic. It's had little periods of breaks. You know little breaks over here, but not anywhere near what we've seen here with 0.2 percent and in this day and age, with how sensitive we are to looking at inflation expectations and changes.

This, in my opinion, is incredibly good news. Now one report is not enough to say that's that inflation is going away - it's not enough, but this report is to say that when we actually look at what seems like a terrible report, it actually shows us that yeah energy prices of food prices are going up. We expect them to come down, especially when the war comes to a close. Yesterday i alluded to a war ending potentially by or some sort of negotiated settlement coming by the end of may.

In fact, in our course member live streams, i showed i broke down a whiteboard meeting that we had in our office talking about when we expect the war in ukraine to end. We expect it to end by the end of may three hours later, an advisor from zielinski releases, a press statement that says we expect war to be over by may now. I said end of may they said by may fine i'll, take it, but i'm like whoa that is kind of eerie that that happened so closely. But that's good because that's going to drive those commodity prices down and what i believe is that federal reserve, chairperson jerome powell, is looking at these reports and he's going yup.

This is exactly what i'm expecting when we take out the food and energy sector that new portion of inflation we're going to start seeing inflation inflecting. That this report does that when we look at the wage price spiral which we were nervous about because of the january labor report. But when we got the february labor report, we saw wages flat, not so great for wage earners, but in terms of a wage price spiral. Wage is not going up is a sign that there's no wage price bible right.

That's really really good. So we start putting the pieces of puzzle together. It's not the headline numbers that we want to be paying attention to it's. The nitty gritty and the nitty-gritty is telling us no wage price spiral, month-over-month numbers outside of food and energy, which are all screwed up because of war, are actually going down.

This is very, very, very good. Let's look at the same thing over here on the cpi report. Remember cpi came out last week right the index for all items. Less food and energy rose point five percent: hey look that still means we're going at a speed of six percent inflation, which is still high, we're still running hot.

According to these reports - and we know we're running hotter than this come on - let's be real. We know that shelter is going up more than five percent. We know that housing is much more expensive, but when it comes to these reports and the federal reserve's actions, we know the fed is looking for these signs of deceleration of inflation and that's what we're seeing we're seeing it here in cpi we're seeing it here in Ppi and we're seeing it in wages. This could all you turn back to the dark side, but right now this is good news and, in my opinion, it reiterates to the federal reserve.

Let's be patient, let's see what kind of reports we get over the next six months. That's my guess: they're going to go through the summer and go let's look at all the reports and the more of this reiteration that we see - and these are the things you want to pay attention to i'll write them down for you, okay, the better. I think the federal reserve ends up responding to markets uh, responding to uh their need for rate hikes, the less likely we end up getting a rug, pull the three things you really want to watch wage price spiral right. The uh core cpi take out that energy sector section core cpi and core ppi again both of these taking out the volatiles like the food and energy, which is is so important to do, especially when, when we're in situ in a state of war, uh.

Now, of course, if war drags on forever, that's gon na be a bad thing. If you think that war is gon na keep going - and i don't want to just be like - like moon boy here - right uh, if, if you believe that war is going to drag on - and you probably don't want to be in equities, if you believe that the Federal these numbers are all cooked and they're all false. You probably don't want to be invested in the stock market, but personally, when we get a death cross on the spy which, if we jump out over here, we get a death cross on the spy which we've had. It has historically been very bullish.

Okay, so the death cross is going to be on my chart here, see this right here: the blue and the green line intersecting. That means the 50-day moving average just broke through the 200-day. That means prices have been going down so much that that the 50 on the 50-day average that they get dragged through the 200-day creates a death cross honestly, usually when we get a death cross. The last time we got this in btc2 in the summer it was bullish and the fact that we're sitting, just above the zero percent fib on the spy right now look at this.

We're bouncing off that uh 420 line actually didn't have much uh much action at that 420 line today, but anyway, we're moving right through that 420 line off that uh that zero percent fibonacci that's good. We go over to qqq. Also, look at that nicely off that zero percent fib fingers crossed that we get really good news from the fed tomorrow. So i'm optimistic and therefore i'm a buyer and guess what that's what i said i would do.

I said i'd probably find uh that markets will be in a state of peak fear right before march 16th. Today's the ides of march. I hope we stay on this trajectory because i'm tired of a bear market.