Breaking! Russia JUST threatened to cut off natural gas and oil to Europe.
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It's one thing: if you're paying more or much more than before, it's a whole different thing when you get nothing threat from russia to cut off supplies of gas to europe. Our business editor stephen carroll joining us here on set with all the latest stephen stewart. This is the latest escalation of threats from moscow. Russia's deputy prime minister has warned of catastrophic consequences for the global market if hit with an embargo.
Alexandra novak says that moscow could cut natural gas supplies through the nordstream one pipeline, which links the country to germany. Europe gets around 40 of its natural gas from russia and around a quarter of its oil. So, first of all, let me just calm. You down.
The united states is probably in the position where it's never going to be in that place of complete shortages, because it doesn't rely on the eastern part of the world for anything. On the flip side, europe is in a whole different enchilada. I mean they have a big problem. Europe actually uses russia for a major import center for everything.
For example, 40 of the natural gas that goes to europe comes from russia, but countries like germany going all the way up to 60 percent. I mean look even if you take away the natural gas still one quarter of the european oil imports are coming from russia. Now russia globally is only about a 10 player, but in europe they're two and a half size that not to mention the fact that look. Russia and ukraine are commonly referred to as the bread baskets of europe.
They literally supply, like 25 to 30 of the global wheat market, two countries, the global wheat market, not to mention the fact that russia supplies like 16 of the world's natural gas, 12 percent of oil, 50 of palladium palladium in case you haven't known. That is pretty much in every non-ev car av car electric vehicle car. It's extinct, certified cpa, shout out to my friend chris. Now.
Look here's the thing um! It's a big supermarket of commodities, metals, energy, food and europe is not just in a position to pay more. Like we are in the us, europe is actually in the position of not having food. That's a whole lot worse, however. Fortunately, for europe, the incentive for russia to pull the plaque on that is not so high.
Obviously, russia would love nothing more than to pull the plug and starve europe out of electricity and out of food. The problem is once they do that they're, basically taking away 50 of their budget right away and for a country that's been completely locked out of its foreign reserve and we're going to talk about that in a second, that's a death blow now. Obviously russia is irrational and obviously they got a leader that might say well, you know people can starve. I don't care, i'm going to hurt europe, maybe they will do it.
I don't know, but as a utilitarian totalitarian kind of cost-benefit analysis. It doesn't seem plausible that this would happen, but who knows, at least for the very least, the flow of energy and wheat and commodities continues. Even though russia made threats, direct threats that they're going to screw around with the supply chain. Just to show europe where the fish are pissing from, let's see what happens, and the real question is what's going to happen to the western economies, if one would decide not to buy russia's commodities and energy, which would be crazy at this point, because we don't have Alternatives or two russia says we're not selling to you, which is kind of crazy in the same amount, but who knows with russia or number three: they just can't supply it, because you know they got ta, dig it out from a war zone and there's interruptions. Now. Obviously, we're gon na see a major spike in the cost of living, major spike of inflation, and it's not going to be good, neither for the economy nor the stock market. We're about to see some major turbulence, no matter what happens and as long as this happens, russia seems to be in a quite comfortable position. Their economy is getting decimated.
The ruble is getting annihilated, however, they're not going to starve to death as long as we keep buying their commodities in oil and gas and we're not in a position to not do that, because we don't have enough supply chains lying around to get it anywhere else. And when i say we i mean europeans not so much the americans. On the other hand, russia can't potentially sell it to china, but again it lacks supply chains to do that to replace europe. So it's kind of this mexican standoff slash to the worst people living in the same house: slash crazy marriage of efficiency.
I don't know, but at this point russia seems to be quite insulated from the brunt of this by being able to sell commodities and oil. Obviously we took away and we froze their foreign reserves, which is basically killing their currency, but as far as functioning with this, they can actually pull through for a good few months. This is not nothing to collapse the economy in a few days. This can continue for a while as long as you keep buying.
Now. The real question is what happens in the west, given the fact that we just saw a precursor for a crazy supply chain, interruption, price increases and inflation, and you can actually look at the bloomberg commodity index and see that just in the past two weeks, it's up Like 14 insane number in the past year, it's up 60. That has nothing to do with the war, because look, here's the crazy part! The commodity index has been on the crazy spike because of inflation. Now it's gotten even worse.
Now. The question is, since this is literally you know the worst time for a war to happen. As far as inflationary pressures, i mean was this the plan of putting all alone to do this at this timing, who knows and honestly figuring out, what's next got ta, be the toughest gig in the market right now, because hey we don't know, what's next for russia, Ukraine, this conflict, slash war, slash invasion can go on for months. It seems now, even though we initially thought it's gon na take days kudos to the ukrainian resistance. These guys are insanely, good and powerful and no much love to them. We don't know if opec is going to come to the rescue. So far, opec has basically said: hey we're not going to save you. I mean it is what it is sue us.
So that means until this stops until the fighting stops and we see some sort of a resolution, some sort of certainty, prices of commodities, metals and energy will be going up. It will going up on based on fears based on actual supply chain shortages and potentially based on further sanctions from both sides on each other and as long as this keeps happening, we're going to see more and more inflation, pushing the economy into recession.
Tom you need to take your opinion out of the situation, this is not a threat sections are going to back fire and it is going to hurt, as of right now Putin can close the pipe lines and he is not breaking contractual agreement and the USA is is bad shape with Venezuela and mexico remember they try to kill the president of Venezuela so the only option that we have now is to ship gas from the usa to Europe, putin has Europe by the balls. You keep on thinking the the USA and Europe are the only buyer that russia has russia has been influencing latin America for year now. You also forget that in world war 2 japan boom the USA because we dint sell them oil yeah think about that logic. Putin closing the pipe line is nothing
It’s ok for congress to spread propaganda and use Ukraine to expand close to Russia front door with missile. And it’s ok for us to sanction Russia and pulled the plug off swift bank but if Russia decide to shut the pipeline to Europe they are the biggest clown.
Put all payments to Russia into a sanctioned account. Charge that account with a large custodial fee on a daily basis. Use the fees to reduce the ridiculous Euro taxes. If/when Russia relents, charge the account with reparations before releasing it.
What in the Hell Germany is thinking about relying natural gas is beyind me, as Elon mentioned Germany really needs to re start its Nuclear plant as soon as possible.
Why would OPEC save US and EU? Their past has been more worse and US lead…. Isnt it? Now they have opp to make some money. Eventually, they need that ..its simple trade …Thanks Tom, good you change your narrative from war to conflict. Thats better. Because, its a regional conflict planted by politicians and price are being paid by citizens on both side…
Tom, it’s not Europe… it’s just Germany. Since Merkel they continuously elected hippies and the hippies made them fully dependent on Russia energy and food. If they actually had something in their heads at least they would have hedged on the nat gas futures… germany has money to hedge for anything. Let them starve now if they were stupid hippies
Let’s go Brandon none of this would’ve happened if we had had a leader to be reckoned with .Biden is a thug and his cronies are nothing but sellouts Who care more about green energy and then people
I hate my government for all there Actions. If Gas turns of here, than Bad things will Happen
Whej Russia conquers ukraine they will have nordstream 2 anyway right? That’s probably why they invaded
I’m not surprised by Putin when you’re dealing with a buffoon like the leader of our country America He’ll try just about anything… What a disaster this administration is all the damage that’s been done in a little over a year it’s disgusting
US just announced we are stopping the purchase of Russian oil and natural gas this am.
Biden announced today a ban on Russian imports. They can revisit the Iran deal and get oil from them, increase production here in the US and if their smart start trading with Venuzuela and starve Russia out. Lots of other options besides bending to the phsyco putin.
Well if opec doesn’t yield, we might not see an op towards russia, but to the weakest members of opec…
Until the USA is energy Independent again and our Southern border is secure again which were under the awesome Trump policies, the Communist Democrats Biden, Pelosi, Schumer and other Democrat leaders will continue to destroy the USA and Free World on all levels.
The Karens and Darren's running Europe are running it to the ground. Sanctioning (virtual signaling) the country that supplies their energy, food?? Russia can self sustain itself, Europe cannot.
My GTE stock is rocking at $1.94 up from 0.98 . Before the end of this month I figure it'll hit $3.
Nash army in the house!!! Thanks Tom!!! Word is Biden will announce a ban on Russia oil imports here in the US today. Buckle up it’s gonna get interesting!!!
US is sitting on lots of oil, maybe someday we could finally use it…. We have enough to get us through until we have full renewable and then some… could sell to Europe…
I want MBS to force Biden to do a televised apology to him and Saudi Arabia. That will be glorious
Think about the impact of having on the Russian economy of having no spare parts for oil and gas infrastructure, transport trucks, farm machinery and mining machinery. Time is Putin's real enemy and having to conduct an invasion in the Ukraine will exacerbate the issues.
Yesterday Addias announced that they were leaving Russia, wow. Where will Russians get there Track Suits, LOL.
When Putin threatens doesn't he have a history of following through on his threats?
If that happens, his people will bring down his regime, there will be chaos within every Russian city.
My theory is that: As gas and oil prices will spike, purchasing power of the people in Europe will be minimised and inflation will come to a halt. Would that make sense?
The world is still not recover from Covid and now because of one crazy man, everything is going to shit…I hope history will forever engrave Putin name next to Hitler.
Great analysis. I am willing to pay higher prices to stop madman Putin. So are many Americans I know and live with. And I am not a rich man live from paycheck to paycheck.
Russia also has their special weapon which is their propaganda machine. They will convince every last babushka that all their new hardships are due to the evil west trying to stop the righteous “denazification” and “liberation” campaign in Ukraine and that these hardships are well worth it
I wonder if better relations with Iran and/or Venezuela can bring the oil prices down