Hey guys, it's sasha, i have lost a lot of money in my investing portfolio over the last three months and i wanted to show you exactly how much i've lost and talk you through some of my thinking and insight. It has been two and a half months since my last update on the man versus the marketport video, so i thought it was about time to go and do another one for those who are new here i have a public portfolio that i started in may last Year, this is a small site portfolio that aims to beat the stock market over the long term and at the moment it's only about 10 months in so it's just getting started. This portfolio is very closely representative of the big positions in my overall investing portfolio. So my total performance mirrors that overall picture fairly closely the value of this portfolio is four thousand four hundred ninety dollars, as i'm recording this video and the value has dropped sharply over the last few weeks with the market correction in january, the fear of inflation and Rising race through the whole of february and now the war in ukraine, i am going to walk through my positions, changes since the last update and the strategy.

I am following in just a second, but here is the spreadsheet. Where i track my performance, this portfolio has lost 33.6 so far in 2022.. This is a very huge drop and the big reason for that is that my portfolio is heavily indexed to grow stocks and earlier stage companies where the swings of the market are exacerbated. Naturally, the nasdaq 100 is only down about 20 in the same time period, so you can see the amplification here in effect and because of this drop, my net return on this portfolio is down to minus 13.5 percent.

You can see that number right here. I have made a deposit into this portfolio at the end of january. This is the two thousand dollars you can see right here on the 26th, and i got a few free shares in january as well, which is what these three random small deposits here are. In case you're interested the platform i chose for this portfolio is steak, and i really actually like using it.

I think it might be the most investor oriented platform out there with a super, calm design and features that make it more tailored to investing rather than trading. If you want to get a free share yourself with up to 150 dollars - and you happen to live in the uk, australia or new zealand feel free to use my link in the description and i'll get a small commission as a result as well. So thank you. If you want to get that free share and choose to try the platform out first, let's talk about the overall performance.

You can see that in 2021, this portfolio got a 33.1 percent return and the return in 2022 so far is minus 33.6 and those two are almost the same, but this is where that important, investing truth comes in. You need a much bigger increase in your investments to offset a loss. If you go and lose 33 in your portfolio like i have done, you need a 50 increase in order to break even so. This is why my overall return is negative, and i have the annualized versions of these returns here as well, because we're only in march and the portfolio is down 33.6.

So far, the annualized version of this return this year looks pretty horrific. It's minus 93, oh dear, the target i picked to compete against this portfolio is vti. The total u.s stock market index and vti at the moment is on 211, so the overall stock market is down as well, but it's only down 3.7 compared to my 13.5. You can see a similar story, though here vti went up 9.4 in 2021 and is now down 9.4 percent in 2022.

But remember these numbers are all weighted based on when i made deposits into the platform to make it a fair comparison. So this isn't the vti in 2021 total in that sense, so at the moment i am losing to the stock market. My portfolio is 10 percent lower at this point than if i just put all my money into the index and forgot about it and did no research and did no work. And this is a great time for that very useful reminder that in the long run the vast majority of active investors will lose to the stock market index.

I am only 10 months in, but the truth is, the stock market will tend to outperform most people picking stocks in the long run. Now the good news is that i am not really concerned or in any way bothered about my portfolio, and that is because the fundamentals of the companies that i'm invested in remain incredibly strong if anything they're becoming even stronger. Every single quarter, including in the last three months as their share price, has dropped. Tesla's q4 earnings were phenomenal.

Their indicators for q1 numbers so far. Look very strong - and i made a video yesterday that talks at length about some of the amazing things going on with tesla at the moment. I'm going to link that video up here and put it in the description as well. If you want to watch it after watching this, one fiverr is my second biggest position and fiverr is a much earlier stage business, so their share price naturally got completely decimated recently, but the fundamentals of that business look very good to me as well.

Q4 numbers looked really really good q1 guidance looked even better. All the optics are looking very strong same goes for every other company in this portfolio. I feel really good about them. The one company i have slightly more concerns at the moment about in here is palantiy, because there were a few cracks showing in the last quarterly report that i am keeping a close eye on.

I talked about them in the past, but palantir is making big moves in restructuring and changing their business to a point where it moves towards commercial customers away from government customers they're hiring huge numbers of sales staff. In order to do that, transition plus unfortunate as it may be, this recent war in ukraine is probably going to give patentee a short-term leg up in terms of their government and military contracts, in the u.s and in europe. But here is where i want to share an important lesson. This is my public portfolio and i am sure there is going to be a lot of dweebs crawling out of every hole and corner into the comment section below with useful insight.

Like your portfolio is down. You should have sold and timed the market, but you didn't because you suck or you've invested in meme stocks and massively overvalued companies. You have no idea what you're doing now, i'm looking forward to all the hate, but here is the important lesson for everybody else watching. I don't invest my money for time periods that are measured in hours days, weeks or months.

My investing strategy is long term, where long term genuinely means long term, and it's incredibly simple and hey. Maybe it won't make me a multi-billionaire in three months, but i am targeting a much more modest average annual return of 30, which is by itself incredibly difficult to achieve. I'm hoping that when i fail to hit the 30 target, i'm still have a chance of hitting 20 to 25 and i'm going to be absolutely delighted with that and in order to target that 30 percent. I only do one thing i invest in companies where i think the sum of their future expected cash flows is undervalued by the current market, capitalization of the business and the risk profile around those future cash flows is sufficiently robust for me to make the investment.

That's it. My job is to invest in companies that i expect to grow their revenues and grow their profits. I don't care one iota for short-term stock market fluctuations and the big reason i don't care about them is because i know that they can't be predicted. I know i know that, no matter how much research i do how smart, i think i might be, i have no way of actually forecasting with any reasonable certainty what the short-term movements in the market will be.

I know there's a lot of people right here on youtube and everywhere else. Who will tell you that they do know and hey? You can do whatever you want with your money, because it's your money and i'm just here a random guy on youtube - feel free to go and use the trading tips that all of these guys will give you and exactly when you should sell everything and when you Should go and buy back to hit the exact bottom or whatever, but i'm just here to remind you that as someone who studied mathematics at oxford, someone who's actually worked on a trading floor and someone who has worked professionally in valuing companies. There is no robust way to forecast short-term market movements, no matter how many charts with made-up lines you show on the screen, no matter how much evidence you go and present, and because i know this fact, i don't waste my time on trying to do something that I know i cannot reliably do i ignore market movements, my assessment of whether a company has strong and robust fundamentals now sure sometimes the market movements or the reason for those market movements can affect those company fundamentals, and that is important, and that is something you should Not ignore a recession could, for example, affect some of the growth metrics for some companies, and a war combined with the recession can definitely push the next wave of cyclical stock rotations. It might affect a number of commodities, the supply chains and a whole lot of other stuff.

But i'm looking at this portfolio with companies that are all currently growing, all looking better. Every quarter all moving in the right direction and my models are showing that they all have a significant upside from the current share price, to where i think, a fair price for that stock is and my risk assessment, even after the recent events is still reasonably good. So i'm happy to wait for the market to catch up, and here is the second important lesson. This is exactly the sort of time when patience of investors is really tested.

You do not need any patience when you're sitting there and your stocks are getting two or three percent every month, like what we've seen over the last two years. But boy does it feel different when your whole portfolio is in the red and you're feeling the pain? The truth is the market could take years to make up for this drop. Some of these stocks may never make up the loss. That is very possible.

Some of these companies that i am invested in could begin to decline. That is also possible, but i am here to play the long term game and i am not going to change my strategy based on which way the wind blows today. This portfolio for me has remained pretty consistent for that very reason. I invested in the money that i deposited in january into tesla, fiverr and amd, and i opened a new position in google at the same time.

These transactions here are just me selling the free shares that i got uh in buying a little bit of tesla and the only rebalancing that i've done since the last update in december is selling a little bit of my palantir stock at the end of december, and Switching that money into fiverr, that is it. I share these updates with my channel members and patreons in the discord. If you want to chat about all these things discuss stocks in real time. The link to my patreon is in the description.

If you're investing for the long term make sure that you are always making decisions for the right reasons if the company's share price has dropped, but your perspective on the fundamentals has not changed your perspective on what the future for the company looks like has not changed. Your expectations of what the company will be doing next year, the year after that and the year after that, has not changed. Why are you pocketing the paper loss if a company is showing that your forecasts on performance were reasonably accurate quarter after quarter after quarter? Does it really matter if the share price doesn't immediately follow? Well, in my mind, it doesn't matter at all. I can't predict what the share price will do or when it will do it.

That is not my job as an investor. My job is to identify opportunities where i see that i think i can buy a dollar for 50 cents and then after i've done that, i just sit around and wait. I know it's really boring and it doesn't make for very good youtube content, because i am not selling out and buying into the market every week, but hey, it is what it is. This is what investing actually looks like, and i want to remind you that there is a donate button next to this video, underneath this video go and look for it, i decided to run a campaign this month called march for ukraine.

I am donating all of my youtube ad revenue for march to the world central kitchen who are providing hot meals to people in ukrainian cities, sitting in bomb shelters with no power of food. They are giving food to people who have nothing left to the hundreds of thousands of people who have fled the war to the people who have no idea what tomorrow is going to bring. They have set up these places where they're feeding people in ukrainian cities, feeding people at border crossings and in the unfamiliar countries that these people now have to call home. This is a terrible and absolutely awful humanitarian crisis, and i would really appreciate if you could please donate.

However little it is that you can, for this really amazing cause. Thank you so much for all of your help and thank you for watching this video. I really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later.