Hey this is tom, and you know the drill, don't click, nothing, don't smash; nothing don't buy nothing in today's video i'll show you why russia already lost and there's seven reasons that that actually happened and i'm not necessarily talking about the traditional warfare kind of style of Losing and winning i'm talking about the long term goals of russia and where this thing is headed, it's not a good place. Stick with me. Let's get this done hey. This is tom.

Thank you for staying with me, as you can see, i'm not at a hundred percent. I finally couldn't dodge the bullet. Um covet got me sorry, not a hundred percent. You can hear it in my voice, but i'm still here giving you the information and my own analysis.

So, as i mentioned in the beginning, there's seven distinct reasons why russia and vladimir putin actually already lost and i'll go over every single one of them. Some of them are more pathological as far as things that already happened, and some are kind of looking forward. As far as the inevitability of the laws, now again, i'm not talking about the traditional warfare. Obviously the russian military is ginormous and i think it's going to be very hard for the ukrainian army as limited as it is, even though they have insane spirit and they want to basically fight the less man and the less bullet the size.

Difference is going to be very difficult for the ukrainian army, but again i'm not a military strategist, and i don't know how this plays out. But i'm not here to talk about the military and the war stuff. I think russia eventually could win the battlefield, but will it win the actual war as far as the stuff that it actually wanted to get out of this? Well, i think not and there's seven distinct reasons why so the first element is the ukrainian national identity or lack thereof, as per the russian strategist or on the vice versa, the russian people's support for this or lack thereof, let's start with the ukrainian side first. So, let's start with the ukrainian side, i think the working assumption for russia was well.

Ukrainians are divided, some haters, some love us at least 50 percent of the population will see us as liberators and the ukrainian army will basically be divided and will fall apart after we do the initial polarization of the first couple of hours, something that completely didn't happen. So is the assumption about the ukrainian army? That's going to basically scatter once they hit some. You know, roadblocks also didn't happen, they're holding strong, they're, tough as nails and also about the government. The government also didn't fall apart and run away like a bunch of mice.

They're staying put now here's the thing. Russia basically had this assumption that there is no ukrainian nationality and there's a lot of divide within and once they actually hit and hit it hard. It's going to fall apart, like a house of cards that didn't happen and that put russia in the major blunder. So the facts are that the ukrainian army is still fighting.

The president is still in kiev and kiev is still held by the ukrainians. So none of these initial goals have been met even in the second week of this war. Now, even if russia eventually takes ukraine, which might happen, in fact, it seems now more likely than not given how much sheer size russia has, what will they do with ukraine? They're unable to hold the country, this literally hates them, they're going to vomit them out much like it happened in afghanistan and other places. You can't hold the country of actual identity and actual hatred towards the russians, even though you might initially conquer it.

Holding ukraine is gon na, prove much more difficult and even that they can't really achieve yet they haven't even conquered it not to mention hold it. It's a ginormous country that now also hates you. You have to understand. Ukrainians, never really hated russia.

Of course, there was a few extremists on both sides, but i mean there wasn't really hate or animosity between ukrainians and russians. Now that this invasion happened, i mean russians are not really liked in ukraine, anymore, in fact, they're prison and non-grata. Not talking about the russians who live in ukraine, i mean russia's russians from russia, so this war in fact strengthened and unified ukrainian identity, which is exactly what putin didn't want to achieve so kind of weird right. The problem is beyond that: it's going to be unpleasant for russia once the ukrainian people decide, they hate you absorbing.

Ukraine is part of russia, which is putin's biggest dream. Is not gon na be possible. You can't absorb a country that literally hates your guts. Now, on the russian side, i think putin expected a similar reaction to what happened with crimea when putin annexed crimea.

His support levels in russia went through the roof, and the big difference is crimea was predominantly russian, so that made a lot of sense when you go after western ukraine, which is culturally nationalistically and for any sort of arguments and reasons has nothing to do with russia And you know the russian people aren't really for that. I mean they're being fed by obviously local controlled media, so they don't have all the facts. I'm sure some definitely like putin, but there's not a lot of kind of ongoing support in russia as far as rallying behind the flag going after ukraine, unlike crimea. This time the people aren't rallying behind putin with this adventure, and the problem is that, even though you might have a few protests here and there - i mean it's not really, this national movement against the war, none of that is happening in russia right now.

However, there's also not a lot of support. People are basically saying well what the hell and that's not the kind of spirit you want from your people when you're trying to go to war, that's definitely going to be sustainable long term. The second point is the complete underestimation of the us intelligence by the russian strategist. I think they see the us as weak as divided.

Does you know? Democracy is their weakness. I think they completely blew it now. U.S actually called invasion way before everybody else, including myself. Most experts said that this is highly unlikely and i said it myself guilty as charged.

However, the u.s administration based on u.s intelligence, kept saying this is going to happen. This is going to happen and eventually it did exactly like they warned. So i think putin didn't anticipate that the more important part is that the us actually came out and said: hey, there's a false flag event. That's going to happen when russia going to blame ukraine for something, and it's going to be a justification for them to invade by doing that, essentially, do is basically took the whole sting out of operation that doesn't really make sense anymore.

That's why i think it might not have happened this way, basically living putin with some de-notification kind of weird religious justification of invading ukraine. That doesn't really make a lot of sense, so they did a good job of anticipating putting moves before him, basically making the invasion from day. One look at complete nonsense. People are basically saying what is this: why you're invading ukraine that was based on u.s intelligence? Now the second part is where basically, he said.

Well, you know what i'm raising my nuclear awareness now that's a threat. That's traditionally is kind of taken seriously in the west. I mean we don't like to think of nuclear wars. I mean that is scary, but the u.s administration based on their intelligence, said well, we think you're, bluffing and so far it seems that they were right.

But of course, here look. Every nuclear threat is serious and scary, as i'm not gon na sit here and pretend, like. I know what this guy's gon na do i mean if he gets desperate, who knows, but at least so far they've basically been cool about it. They said.

Okay, let's see they didn't jump, the gun basically raised their awareness and then you know started the whole snowball. They basically were really cool about it, which i think is something that putin didn't expect to ask to be cool, calm and collected. I don't know what kum is: let's move on now. The third part is a complete misunderstanding of how bad the impact of the sanction will be on the russian economy.

I don't think russia anticipated how fast it will come, how hard it will come and what the scope of this thing will be. Now russia knew that nobody's going to attach oil and gas. It's a double-edged sword. Nobody wants to mess with that.

It's in both sides interest to keep the gas and the oil flowing. It's definitely not as bad as it should be to completely stop russia from basically doing this, they could have easily done that by cutting off oil and gas, but that can't be done because it's a double-edged sword. The west needs the gas and oil more the eu than the u.s. The u.s is pretty much not really dependent on russian oil.

Only about three percent of you know their imports coming from russia, but the eu really needs russian gas so that doomsday weapon hasn't been pulled out yet, but the sanctions were much broader and came down much faster than putin anticipated. This wasn't the child's play that we saw in 2014. These were real sanctions and they're, taking a toll on the russian economy. Now everybody likes to talk about the central bank of russia and their reserves.

The war chest 640 billion dollars in foreign currency for the war, that putin has basically prepped for now there have been sanctions on that reserve and in fact most of it is inaccessible to russia. Apart from about 130 billion in gold and a few other stuff, it's mainly frozen because mostly it's in g7 countries and that thing is shut down. So putin can really access that. However, it's not as bad as it would seem because it still has access to all the money, as all prices keep going up rated 115 for crude oil.

I mean he actually gets quite a lot of money from basically selling oil because look in reality. High oil prices serve russia, they're getting forex, they'll survive that so the problem is in the inflation part and look it's not like things were great. Before this whole thing started. Russia was flirting with double digit inflation before this war about nine percent, even worse than the us, and now with the supply chain, shortages in russia.

Basically, everybody claws shop in russia, no more goods coming in or out. It's gon na get much worse. So, even though it actually gets money from oil and gas, the supply chain issues and basically the ruble going to zero, is now going to create massive inflation in russia, not nine percent, not ten percent experts are saying twenty thirty forty percent insane inflationary impact on russia. We've seen this before in 1998 and how destructive it can be if it doesn't get solved fast.

However, at this point it doesn't seem like a solution is in sight. I mean a proper solution would be putting going back home, which is something he can't afford. So basically, he has to decide between the complete destruction of his currency and his economy or taking ukraine both options he can't live with or without it's like a marriage pretty much now. The next point is kind of ironic, because the whole purpose of why putin went to war is to create more peaceful borders for himself.

He doesn't want nato on his border right, but the problem is that this whole operation, this whole war, basically created a more unsafe border for russia to begin with, because the entire eu, which was basically asleep at the will, decided that this is the end of the Peace era, because since world war ii for the past 80 years, europe has been underspending on military. They basically said why we don't need it spending two three percent on gdp on the military, basically creating a very safe environment for putin. That means that he actually can put more money into infrastructure education, healthcare stuff - that countries really want to spend on. No country really wants to spend on military unless they have a choice right, so he invades ukraine in the hopes of getting that.

Instead, he gets germany, which is the leader of europe, saying hey, we're doubling our spending on military and we're only going to get stronger and stronger support from this, because the coalition, the opposition, everybody in germany is saying. Yeah yeah people are trying to join nato. Finland, sweden, trying to join nato. I mean switzerland is supporting ukraine, they didn't take size in world war ii.

I mean the entire eu and nato is more unified than ever, which is exactly the opposite of what putin tried to achieve, because when putin went to ukraine, he basically thought that germany is going to be in the collision course with the us, because germany would say Well, we're going to keep russian gas, don't sanction, the us will say well sanction and then they're going to have a fight completely. You know killing nato or at least weakening nato or destabilizing nato, but instead he got the most unified nato ever, including all of his borders. All of his neighbors are now joining nato and spending more on military, which is the opposite, literally the opposite of what he wanted now. The next mistake was a pr mistake.

I think putin really wanted for people to believe the whole nato expansion caused. This narrative, he tried to push it a lot. However, it never really took, of course, there's a few experts on the west who still push this narrative and understand why, but it never really caught on for multiple reasons, for example, in his own invasion speech, he never even brought it up. He talked about nationalistic stuff.

Denatifying, ukraine, that ukraine doesn't have right to exist, blah blah blah all that stuff, not a word about nato, so that weakened this whole thing beyond the fact that ukraine wasn't even on the brink of joining nato. I mean this wasn't on the table right now. Why now of all times, mostly because nato is a defensive alliance, i mean, except from 1998, ever since it existed in the 40s, it never did anything even in 1988, it just bombed to stop massacre to stop a genocide. They never invaded anyone.

That's the whole idea. Article 5, basically, nato is a concept, it's just a concept that if one country's attacked everybody come to their defense, there's not an offensive use for nato, and i think putin knows this, and the only explanation of why would nato want to basically suffocate putin is basically Predicated on some sort of an ancient belief that the us wants to destroy russia, which is obviously not true, because nobody in the us really gives a story about russia before this whole thing. Nobody cares about russia. It's not that big of a deal.

There's no people sitting around the u.s trying to think of ways to destroy russia. It doesn't work that way, so this whole narrative, as elaborate as it was never caught on in the western media, completely killing his plan to divide public opinion in europe in the u.s. Another major failure and, of course we can't ignore the logistical nightmare that he created for himself. Look russia, definitely miscalculated the logistics of this.

I'm not a logistical expert, i'm not a military strategist. All i can tell you is they didn't think of how strong of a logistic system they'll need to invade a big ass country like ukraine, now the soviet army before them, and the current russian army is known to be weak, logistically outside of its own borders? It's basically relying on their own railway system when they get far from it, especially into a country where it's, basically, you know going full on scorched earth and destroying bridges, roads, railways, they basically get stuck in the mud. I mean they're kind of terrible at logistics, especially in the country like ukraine and what the ukrainian people have been doing. Basically slowing them down.

They're literally stuck in the mud. Look we're in the second week of this, and still kiev is standing. The government is standing. The ukrainian army is standing every day that this goes on.

The logistical nightmare for his army becomes much much worse, which unfortunately kind of raises the odds of more aggressive action, which is something i definitely don't want to see. But this is a scary thought and the last point i think was completely misunderstanding: how china is going to respond with this look. China is basically sitting here, saying: hey we're friends, but we're only friends as long as it suits our interests. They're saying look.

Ukrainian is a sovereign country. You should not have invaded. However, look the west, you shouldn't be pushing nato in the backyard of putin. You guys need to work it out, they're, basically implying that putin has a point, and the west has a point: they're, basically not taking the side of putin.

Now putin definitely sees them as a potential replacement for eu craze, but that thing is going to take a decade to set up logistically and even though not sure that china really wants that. I mean they're going to sanction up the wazoo by the entire g7. If they do that, but even if they do that, not sure if putin wants that, i mean do they really want to be 100 dependent on china from now going forward. What does it do to his clout in europe? So it's a whole complicated story with china.

I think he anticipated way more support from the chinese, but basically they're. Looking at saying, hey, we don't really want to go to war here because look we have our own thing with the us. We don't want any mess, let's just keep it going the way it is because look. China doesn't really want more sanctions from the us based on its friendship with russia.

They want to keep things as low yield as possible. They want to keep things calm and they're, not going to be here sitting on the fence. Saying: hey: go putin, it's not gon na work. This way and again, a mistake, that's being done strategically now, as always, this is just my opinion.

Every time i talk about geopolitics, 50 of you may think, i'm a complete idiot. Let me know below i'm fine with it share with me. Your opinion i'll see you tomorrow.