What's going on guys good morning, everybody welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys tuning in we're going to get ready to run you guys through the market this morning. So a couple things uh tensions still high in russia. All that's still going on the market has seen an extraordinary rally last week, um going into monday morning here the market gapped down. I think it was like six or seven hundred points, something like that, all right.

So before we get into talking about all the nitty gritty of it, i rather run you through kind of a bigger picture, scope of things. So right now you might be looking at my chart and saying there's definitely some levels that are missing, but really we're. Just looking at the long term levels right now to give you sort of a easier understanding, so first things first uh 97 give or take it's not totally exact what i'm writing, but 97 of the price action is going to exist with inside the blue lines. Okay, in 99, 99 of the time, the price action will exist within the purple.

Okay and there's some more probabilities there, but we're just going to work off of those two for right now: okay, so 97, 99 of the time market, price action will exist within the blue and purple right. So reverse engineer that thought process if 99 or 99 and 97 time it's going to be within the blue and the purple. It makes sense that, as we fall down almost to the blue line, we get a bounce right, because, if 97 of the time we stay within, then that means the market shouldn't go below, which means it either has to stay sideways or probably goes the opposite way. Flip that the other way and if market is going up and it gets to the blue line - then, generally speaking, it's probably going to go sideways.

It might peek through a bit but then come back down under, go sideways or has to go that way, because it really can't keep going that way forever and it can't be going that way forever without a bounce or without a pullback based on statistics. So now that you know that and you're pretty solid on that, you're - probably not confused as to why the market is having such a nice rally. Here we have sold off significantly into bearish news into low risk probability levels. That's how i see it so now we're balancing all right.

So if you look at this weekly chart right now, um your weekly probability level is right here at 3 or sorry, 434, 50 or so so you know that's a good chance that the market was going to try to tag that you can see. We've gotten pretty close now. What we're going to do is we're going to reduce this and start looking at some smaller time frames like a five day 15 minute and when we get to the five day 15 minute, you're gon na start seeing more lines. All these lines, you're, seeing on my chart, now, are really just um more probability levels if that makes sense.

So today, um, you know the reality. Is you had a gap to fill? That's your gap! Okay! So if you see the marker, you go up here, fill that gap. That would totally be normal. Okay.

Now, if the market cannot get above these two levels here, then it's possible. The gap goes unfilled, but for right now you really should not be expecting any more bullish movement off this bounce. In this run, until you clear those two lines once you clear these two lines, then you can open up the conversation of filling the gap. You could open the conversation of filling the gap even before the market gets over those lines but see for me.

I know that those probability levels exist and i know the market if it wanted to. It could stop here and it could go this way. So i just know you can't fill the rest of this gap until you get over those top lines and then, once you fill this gap, you're probably going to see a pullback in my opinion, so i'm not on the side of expecting this market just to rip. All the way, through 437 438 for now - maybe not today, maybe in a couple days or something like that - maybe tomorrow, but for right now, the way the market sits is your first pullback support on the day which it's going to update at the open.

So these might not be totally perfect, but let's say the market pulled back right now. Your first support is going to be about 4. 32. 31..

Your first upside resistance in terms of statistical probabilities is going to be at 430 450 and about 4, 30. 520. All right after your first support of 432.35, your support levels and support zone comes into 424.90 to call it 423.50. Okay.

So now we just kind of zoom out that is sort of the way your market is set up all right. Now, i'm going to run you guys through just a couple other things all right so remember the other day market snaps down, find support. Curls up breaks up pulls back yesterday right down when friday hold support, runs up to the next probabilities and it tries to hold above here's the thing remember that every time you break down a probability level, it generally pulls back to re-test whether on a bigger scale Or a smaller scale, all right! So if we go through this, you can break down here. That's a pullback re-test breakdown, that's pullback, retest breakdown! More! That's a bigger retest and gap down all right.

It pulls back up, can't get back above breaks down, bounces and eventually we'll go to another breakdown. Break down. Small pullback re-test go break down no re-test. There's your re-test okay tries to break down.

Can't back up breaks above breaks out, pulls back re-test right there. Okay, pulls back re-test right there. Okay goes up, goes up, breaks up and pull back, re-test pull back and gap down all right gap down you broke down this. You broke down that all right, pull back, re-test break back above, pulling up, there's another retest, so nonetheless you're currently getting higher lows in the market now with higher highs.

So this is an uptrend so for right now i wouldn't be extremely bearish because we're starting to see markets kind of push up on the bull side, but you don't want to be too bullish until you actually fill that gap and start really sustaining above that level And you're also getting an inverse head and shoulders pattern which is right there right, so that is, or that's done terribly right. Let's do it like this, so the key is to get over these two humps there for your inverse head and shoulders push and once and if that happens, then we'll look for the market to go up to 4. 47. 26.

All right and that's pretty much your guys's morning, video for today, so i hope you like that um again, sorry, if the audio is a little weird, if i miss a day or two here throughout the week again, i'm down here in florida, i'm hanging out with Some family, so with that being said, i'll catch you guys in the next video everybody take care.