Uh, so this has gotten really serious real fast. It seems that putin is now implementing a full-on invasion into ukraine, including bombings tanks, we've having reports about airports being bombed, at least military airports. This is some serious stuff. Um full-on invasion is in progress.
I guess, and i spoke to a few people on the ground and they're scrambling - it's it's being taken seriously, there's a there's somewhat of an urgency in the air right now i have some friends in kiev and they're not really terrified by what's going on, but they're Definitely scrambling to make sure that they have everything they need: they're, protected, they're, safe. It's no longer this feeling of yeah nothing's gon na happen that we had two weeks ago. So i made a few videos kind of sharing with you, my own opinion of why i think this invasion does not happen. Even though um you know, putin definitely can do it.
Obviously i got it wrong. I'm not gon na sit here and pretend that i didn't like my call, wasn't right and it's not the first time i got something wrong. In fact, i just made a video this week. Titled i was wrong, so this is kind of becoming a habit.
Maybe i should not be making predictions and but jokes aside yeah. This is the one prediction that i really feel bad about getting wrong. I mean. Maybe i got a little bit of a opium in me for this not to happen and it kind of sunk into my analysis.
I don't know, but in this video i'll try to break down to you exactly what's going on and what's the next, i guess the development of the story. So when you wake up - and you watch this video unless you're awake already at 2 - 30 a.m - like i am you're gon na find out that everything is down, nasdaq is down two and a half percent. Uh s. P 500 is down two percent.
Oil is up. Seven percent overnight and, as you know, as standard bitcoin, is down to the mid 30s. So the entire collapse of the stock market is going to continue today and energy is going to go up, safe havens are going to go up and the rest of the stock market is going to feel the pain, and the question is what the hell is: putin Doing because i said this in my videos - there's nothing to be gained from invading ukraine for putin and for nobody, not for ukraine, obviously not for the eu and not for russia, and ukraine is going to suffer the most loss of life, mainly loss of freedoms, because When this is all said and done, putin is going to replace the current democratically elected government with his own puppet regime, and this is going to be the end of independent, democratic ukraine. So that part is very sad, so loss of democracy is never good and putin has made a specialty out of creating loss of democracies.
He's done this before loss of lives on both sides. I think you have 18 year old. Russian kids, who are fighting on the russian side are going to die, not understanding what the hell is going on. You have ukrainian life loss for no reason, so why is this happening? So the eu is going to suffer from this. Energy prices are going to go up in the middle of this winter, which is going to suck. Russia is going to suffer because of this, because the eu has already put a plan in motion to diversify its energy supplies not to be so dependent on russia. He basically created an incentive. He he lit up a fire under their ass, so for the past 20 years the eu have been embroiled in this debate whether they should diversify gas supplies and get out of the dependence of russia and nobody's really done nothing about it.
This is actually going to push the eu into you know diversifying gas supplies and basically taking away russia's leverage over europe, which is a big loss of leverage. It's going to basically take income and revenue away from russia, and you know over the course of the past 20 years, russia with germany's decision to not go for nuclear power plants and phase out coal. Russia has become the main suppliers of energy in europe, mainly in germany in italy. Now that's going to be gone.
Russia pretty much galvanized, the eu that was basically torn apart after brexit back together. They galvanized nato, the western community so they're. Creating this whole massive force, unified force against themselves and not to mention the fact that nobody in russia wants this war. There's no russian support for this, the russian street.
From what i understand and have a lot of friends that i speak to on a daily basis. Nobody wants russia to invade ukraine it. It's not like. Russians are much more concerned with cost of living and being able to feed their families and keep the lights on and you know have a good life.
Nobody gives a about invading ukraine, so why? Despite all of this, the invasion is going on now. I said in my videos: the west doesn't have any leverage over putin whatsoever, and yet i still thought if this would have. This would not have happened because, as i just explained to you, there's no but nothing to gain for putin. Putin holding ukraine is meaningless.
He already monetizes ukraine with gas and he basically has access to everything he needs so taking over. Ukraine is just a hassle. Another headache, i don't think his needs, but the reason why i think this is happening is because he's a 70 year old man obsessed with his own legacy, he wants to be leninized. He wants to be kind of the next lenin in in in russian history.
He wants to be the guy that's going to unify some sort of a quasi-ussr 2.0. He has all the money in the world he's probably one of the richest men on earth. He has all the clout the influence, the women, the the money, the houses, the cars. He has nothing yet to achieve.
It's he's done everything he's bored, he's bored, he's old and now he's obsessing about this religious pursuit of reunification of the former ussr and in the process of his demented craziness chase. After this egomaniacal reunification of ussr he's literally dragging a whole continent with him to war, and i find it insanely ridiculous and when i look at this from a kind of human perspective, there's kids right now in ukraine that was supposed to go to school tomorrow morning, Which i doubt they can parents who fear for their lives, their kids lives their kids safety they're concerned about how if the lights are going to be on tomorrow, if there's going to be food in the supermarkets, i mean all of this all this crap. For this man's own personal legacy, some sort of religious struggle to reunify ussr, it's very very sad and the the sanctions that they're talking about right now. I feel they're going to have very little impact on putin. Don't see that happening, i mean you can't sanction a guy. That's driven on this religious mission to you know, take everything down with him. So, let's see what happens, i'm i you know i'm going to try to make more videos about this as this thing progresses, but i just want to come out and say that i think that what putin is going to try to do right now is essentially try To topple this government without getting to a hand-to-hand combat on the streets of of ukraine, he'll try to put pressure by bombing military airports and military outposts and basically try to get this government to leave. So he can bring in his peacekeeping force and create free elections.
Where he can have his figurehead take over the longer the government stays in power and doesn't get toppled by what he's doing the more he's going to get forced into an actual conflict in the streets which i think he doesn't want. Well, let's pray for ukraine and let's hope that this thing is over and i'll keep i'll keep you posted the more. I know about this. I have some people i speak to in ukraine and russia.
So the more i know, the more i'll, let you know also so stay tuned, and you know, let's hope, for the best.
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Sorry this is happening Tom. I sense the sadness in your voice. It will be interesting to see if the Ukrainian government gives up or will they fight to the death. I am not sure which is better since giving up might prevent more Ukrainians dying and also Russians dying.
I previously wrote a comment about analogy with situation in Czechoslovakia in 1938 where expansion of Hitler's 3rd Reich started. Now it is clear that Putin is even much more impatient than Hitler was. It really sucks. I pray for Ukraine and NATO must be ready for possible escalation against their members.
It's the slow but evident climb towards WW3. Russia and China, both are allies because of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" strategy. When you have two psychopaths, Putin and Ping…(sounds like a music duo or Las Vegas comedy act!) teaming up, they feed upon each other's delusion. A NATO war on the Western front, and a Taiwanese invasion on the Eastern front. CCP and Ping will look at this as the opportunity as the USA is occupied and strained in Ukraine. Ping will think it's a sign of weakness. Just like the time after the defeat of the Japanese in China during WW2. They seized power by overthrowing the legitimate government that fought and suffered losses to the Japanese. All such regimes under psychopaths are opportunists. Each of these psychopaths have Empire lust on the brain. Western powers are weak minded from greed and lax and soft from aversion to conflicts. They do anything to preserve status quo. Even if it takes denial and concessions. Very dangerous policy that will backfire dealing with psychopaths.
Surround NATO around Russian didn’t play a role? Are sure that didn’t trigger this conflict. I know our American government has unraveled the Middle East and African countries, and America has always wanted to surround Russia with NATO
My Opionion Putn was sick of hearing Russia in America news for 4 years and the dems … he knew this would crush our economy more because of our Failed Govttt it's Payback too Clintons,obbama,sleep Joe and tge Dems/Republicans Sanctions do nothing
Putin said they only bomb military targets across country and taking entire Donbass region. I doubt they will do anything else to the rest of the country. Possibly they will block Ukraine access to Black Sea as well. Calm down and buy the dip. It is an overreaction.
He basically got away with taking Crimea, so why not Donbas and Donetsk too? One can only hope the EU, US and other parts of the world grow some proper diplomatic balls…
Sadly it may end with the general Russian populace feeling some of the sanctions, giving Putin a chance to vilify the west and rally support – maybe that's his ultimate goal.
I don't even care about the markets anymore. All my thoughts and support for the people of Ukraine, and all the senseless loss of life that will happen.
Some Humans are really something. One man's ego is making him cause pain and suffering for millions of people. Just coz he wants to prove a point.
Im not advocate of war but the Ukraine govnt aint clean/democratic either massive corruption and no media freedom. Still though it doesnt justify an invasion.
Putin already gained 1 thing and he will gain 1 more thing when he accomplishes his military operation with success:
gained: Ukraine just totally lost ability to become EU and NATO member
will gain: control over territory where the pipelines are lying
Just like I told you before you don’t know what the f*%# you’re talking about, Russia is going to take Ukraine that’s a guarantee, I am 99% sure they going to blow up Saudi Arabia oil, this way the world not gonna be able to put sanctions on Russia, then Manchurian candidate Trump is going to blame Joe Biden for the huge oil price, he’s going to win again, then officially legitimize this invasion as no big deal, When oil hits hits $300 by barrel every single democrat is going to lose their seat, to Trump puppets, if we don’t put Trump and his co-conspirators for treason this might be the end of democracy in United States of America, and Russia is going to take many more countries in Eastern Europe,
How did anybody not think it would come to this? Intelligence services said down to the exact day it would happen. Putin already invaded Georgia and annexed Ukraine once with zero consequences. Now he will take Ukraine. After he will take the Baltic countries, though being in NATO he will take them more piecemeal. And nobody will do anything about it.
Phillip.
Tom, thanks for your updates, honesty and wisdom. These are uncertain times and NONE of this is the fault of the common man.
I've disagreed with you on several points lately, Tom – but as someone who's lived in Russia for some time, I fully agree with you that Russian people don't want this war and that their main concern is putting food on the table and keeping the lights on, and sometimes they have to decide one over the other.
May God help us all.
Putin is making true his mindset of old Russian imperialism. I think a lot of Russians like their leader acting like this on Ukraine. A lot of them, maybe most of Russians, believe Russian media propaganda.
When the media when out and asured Russia that they would not protect Ukraine that´s when Russia started growing horns.
I honestly don’t think it matters whether you were right or wrong in your prediction. We know your heart was in the right place Tom and I personally have learned a lot from your videos covering this. Just truly unfortunate that it’s come to this. Prayers to those in Ukraine 🙏
its not that it "seems" like putin is invading – he is. Tom, ive been a supporter of your patreon and channel for a while (from Dan Bilzerian coverage), but your videos in the last couple of months have been deviating pretty significantly from what is actually happening. I hope you and your channel members can understand this is intended to be constructive criticism to the way you call out your "predictions". not exactly sure what it is but they seem to lately be predicated from a different center of logic from when you first started – and now you are getting involved in geo political discussions…. as for specific stock coverage, i think you should be more heavily weighing in the macro environment we are in and how it constantly changes. Its one thing to say a particular equity is to hold for 5+ years but wouldnt it be better to essentially "time it" within a range of 1 year. (look at PLTR today and 1 year ago)
They have to take Putin out immediately. West ignored Hitler as well at first and he took half of Europe out before something has been done.
Putin isn't taking over all of Ukraine, just the mostly Russian areas in the East. Since 2014 US/Europe backed terrorists have been murdering and torturing the pro Russian factions there. So I don't see this as a bad thing as he's just reuniting Russians with Russia. If he occupies the entire Country then that's a bridge too far.
The biggest loss is Ukraine and Russian people, which are always the truth under the dictatorship regime. CCP china is on the way.
Why didn't dementia Joe Biden and weak feckless UK uphold their responsibility to defend Ukraine that they agreed to in the Budapest Memorandum? Ukraine should have kept their nuclear weapons instead of giving them up for this agreement that is only good for toilet paper. Can you imagine what China is thinking now about Taiwan with these imbeciles ruling the West? Putin invaded Crimea under weak obama and Ukraine under weak dementia Joe, but none of the sorts happened under a strong leader like Trump. DIctators like Putin understand and respect strength. We are screwed now. This will have long lasting consequences far beyond just Ukraine.
Oh man growing up i thought i was completely decensitised to death and destruction, but hearing the sirens blair i felt the sadness and value of human life.
I agree with you, I think his head has gotten so big, that he thinks he will be the next Tsar/Stalin/Hero whatever. Nothing else really makes sense.
This was expected. This is Putin. We had plenty of precedence of his mentality and legacy actions. He is a psychopath. So many obvious signs both psychological and physical.
You must ALWAYS must stand up to psychopaths. Or you encourage them. You can't project onto them logical and sensible mentality. They are mentally disordered. They are self-destructive, and behave like viruses, generating chaos is their M.O.
HE IS LITERALLY DOING WHAT IT TAKES TO KEEP EUROPE AND USA OUT OF UKRAINE…..
IM NOT SURE IF ITS GOOD OR BAD, WHAT I CAN SAY IS ITS BEEN BAD WHENEVER THE USA AND EUROPE HAVE INVADED PLACES!!!!!
MAYBE JUST MAYBE HE IS SAVING THE UKRAINIANS FROM THE BIGGER DEVIL..!!..
Biden admin and Putin are globalist’s puppets. They obey but we don’t have to obey. Don’t support and don’t participate in their ritual. Disobedience is our weapon spread it.
This is what happens to a man like Putin broken away from reality. He is delusional. He still lives in the 40s and 50s. The saddest thing to see thi in this information age
I don’t think you were wrong. You said that Putin wanted assurance that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO and he didn’t get that promise. So now he’s taking over by force.