Hey everyone me kevin here: three things we've got to talk about in this video. First, we're going to talk about information at home, the united states and we're going to talk about russia and then we're going to talk about china, we'll also throughout the video talk about uh pricing and markets. Uh bitcoin oil odds of a recession and is now potentially the time to buy. Let's talk about that so first, the market is pricing in now a 68 chance of a 25 basis, point hike by the federal reserve, which is interesting because it was just about a week and a half ago that we were pricing in near a 100 chance of A 50 basis point hike by the fed, it looks like the market is really thinking the fed is going to continue on there.

Uh don't worry. Eventually. This inflation will be transitory course and they're going to go for that 25, 25, 2020 and so on and so forth throughout the rest of the year for all of their fed policy meetings. We've got another seven policy meetings coming up and all seven of these could experience a 25 basis, point hike which would bring us to about one and a half to maybe one point: seven: five percent, the in terms of a fed funds range.

Some estimates show that maybe we'll actually make it to two percent by the end of the year, but that would probably require some more fed aggression or the fed, essentially turning even more hawkish than what the market is pricing in right now. So if we get a 50 basis point hike at this point in march, it would come as a shock to markets with most markets. Now, pricing in just a 25 basis, point hike and then already starting to price in cuts in 2024. So the market's planning for sort of some short-term slowness from the fed raising rates too much over time here and then eventually, you turning on those rates by 2024.

in europe already seeing that u-turn getting priced in in 2023, where rates might get cut in 2023., it All comes down to, though, how strong and lasting will inflation be and the place not to look for an answer is in the consumer confidence survey that came out today. We had consumer confidence, come in slightly better than expected at 110.5 versus the expectation of 110. This is down from january, but the problem was the a one-year inflation expectation for consumers actually rose to seven percent. That is up from the six point eight percent expected - and this is not ideal, because any time the federal reserve sees that inflation expectations are becoming.

What's known as entrenched more and more then, the fed is more likely to raise rates and be more aggressive to bring that expectation back down, see inflation. Does this funny thing where it's kind of a self-fulfilling matter? Essentially, if people believe there will be inflation and believe there will be high inflation, then they're more likely to spend more money today, leading to those prices actually rising to the levels expected. So you've got this really weird thing going on when it comes to inflation, and a lot has to do with expectations. Big fears now that supply chains resolving themselves won't actually end up solving our inflation issues, as we end up with either a wage price spiral or more of what companies like gm or ford are doing, where they're purposely throttling supply chains to keep prices high.

You also probably don't want to look at home depot earnings for any sign about how inflation and higher labor, logistic or supply chain costs are affecting business. Home depot fell the most today that it's fell falling in the last year. It's down over five percent. All thanks to these inflationary pressures, we did get the purchasing managers index come in at uh 56.

This is sort of getting back to a more normal level again after a brief dip in january, due to omicron now, we've got to talk about well. First of all, macy's beat as well, and i have to say some of the recovery stocks have been doing quite well. Macy's beat dave and buster's actually still doing quite well as a stock still worried about the debt loads. That some of these, though, really macy's, has some phenomenal real estate and they announced today that they will not plan on separating their company into sort of an online business and a retail business they're going to keep the company together.

So a lot of enthusiasm here, along with share buybacks announced and dividend, but what we've got to talk about is the potential that geopolitics is actually creating a buying opportunity, and this is of course, where we talk about russia. We know that joe biden's going to speak at 11 a.m. Pacific 2 p.m. Eastern today on russia, so he'll probably be live somewhere around 30 minutes later because they always seem to be about 30 minutes late, but anyway, what's important is that right now, geopolitics, especially our ukraine issues and we're going to talk about china in just a moment, are Potentially, creating a buying opportunity and the evaluation that you have to make here is: do you believe that inflation will end up being transitory, that when supply chains resolve themselves, inflation will come down and the federal reserve will be able to relax on their hikes? And that remember for inflation to persist.

We need prices not just to go up once, but to go up once and then again and then again right, and that becomes a tough thing to do. Over and over again, you raise the price, as we've said. As an example, before of this apple pencil from 100 to 110 dollars to get another 10 level of inflation, we'd have to raise the price of this pencil to 121 dollars. Could that happen? Well i mean, if you look at oil, the answer might be.

Yes, we hit 98 dollars today on brent, we're getting dangerously close to that 100 figure, which is going to create a lot of inflationary fears, but if you're not worried about the fud of inflation and for whatever reason or whatever your belief is which could happen, you Believe that inflation will end up going down we're going to start seeing that month over month, inflation number or reading come down, then geopolitical issues can oftentimes be a good opportunity to buy the dick, usually according to bloomberg. It takes about three weeks during geopolitical issues like war. It takes about three weeks for us to find a bottom. We generally see an average decline of 5.5 percent and it takes about three weeks to recover in full, so three weeks down average decline about five and a half percent three weeks to recover, but the takeaway here is that geopolitical risks tend to be short term.

So, if you're looking for an opportunity to buy the dip, it's entirely possible that the drama over russia and ukraine could create a short-term buying opportunity, and i would generally if, if i was not concerned about lasting inflation, i would generally be seeing this as a wonderful Opportunity to buy companies that i like at even lower prices. Now, let's talk a little bit about russia. It's no surprise that, right after the olympics ended russia decided to recognize the separatist regions of eastern ukraine, the independent regions. Now, apparently, at least according to russia needing the protection and peacekeeping of russian troops, and this has now been declared an invasion of ukraine by joe biden.

Concerns are now that russia will also end up making its way to the capital kiev and that u.s or the united states has now pulled all of its embassy staff out of all of ukraine, not just certain parts and parked them in hotels in poland until further Notice, other countries have also been withdrawing embassy staff. It's worth noting that these, these uh sort of little nibbles uh bring a lot of people's memories back or at least historical memories of back to 1938 and 1939, where german troops marched into austria to annex the german-speaking part of austria, germany, a lot of all they Speak german and austria, so all of it uh and about a year later germany ended up. You know invading poland, but don't worry it's just austria. Don't worry it's just poland.

Don't worry it's just the separatist region of ukraine. Now, russia, of course, is saying that the situation in the donbass is worsening and that individuals here need to be protected. Remember just last week, russia was offering stimulus money to people to leave. It was like 113 dollars.

They were giving people 113 stimulus checks to essentially leave the region leading up to their invasion, so they're trying to get people out of this russian speaking area and into russia. Now the russian parliament was just voting to approve putin's uh deployment of troops uh in in the uh, the donbass region and potentially even further uh. Parliament has just given that approval to putin. Now we also have a lot of references coming back to joe biden and a lot of individuals wondering why does it seem like joe biden is not being the best potential teammate here for ukraine? Obviously, individuals say that biden is in a very difficult spot because on one hand, if you start having us troops shooting at russian troops, you end up potentially with world war iii.

Whereas if the united states helps ukraine in covert either behind the scenes, maybe they help militarily without of anyone actually, knowing u.s troops are there? Maybe they supply weapons, which ukraine is asking for more u.s and more weapons from the u.s and the united kingdom. Just this morning, they did that they've already received over 500 million dollars, a worth of other equipment and weapons and they're seeking more but anyway, uh. A lot of this talk about biden is sort of bringing back memories of campaign era biden where joe biden said on twitter. Vladimir putin doesn't want me to be president.

He doesn't want me to be our nominee if you're wondering why it's, because i'm the only person in this field who's ever gone, toe-to-toe with him, and so a lot of folks are looking back at this going. What are you doing now? Well, uh, obviously a little bit of a in between a rock and a hard place and we're looking at what sanctions packages are expected to come, not just from the united states, potentially today, the european union as well, but also the impacts of germany, cancelling nordstrom 2.. This is an opportunity for russia to send natural gas and oil directly over to europe, and unfortunately, germany has cancelled this, as in response to russia's aggression. Now russia believes and has released a statement that they believe the cancellation of the nordstrom 2 pipeline will be temporary.

We also see that commodities like a nickel, which are important in ev production, are skyrocketing to all-time new highs, especially on these russia tensions, because there are fears that essentially extracting nickel from regions around russia and ukraine might become more difficult as these tensions escalate. Russia also expects uh to uh, essentially maintain peace in these separatist regions and at least right now they say they don't plan to go any further. But we've heard this before you know as a week ago it was we have no plans to invade, in fact we're withdrawing some troops. At the same time, more troops were being brought and then they ended up invading uh, at least the separatist regions.

All right. So now all of this is is to say that yeah obviously there's somewhat of an opportunity potentially to buy the dip again as long as you do not believe that inflation issues will last now we do have to talk about bitcoin and china, but folks, just take A look for a moment here at where we're trading on the spy. First of all, look at these multiple rejection points here along the 23.6 fibonacci. Here we've tried breaking out a few times here, but we just haven't made it and we've really been getting to about that 430 line.

That's where it seems like the spy is trying to head trying to consolidate around uh qqq. Obviously i had a little bit of a spike here at the uh almost looks like a double top here, a little bit of a an excitement, uh or exciting spike as the day opened up, but unfortunately that has quickly been sold. Another sort of convictionless rally who knows, though, maybe we'll rally into the close we do need to talk about bitcoin, though uh glass node via cnbc reporting, uh, that for bitcoin there recently has been a lot of uh languishing activity. They say very low, on-chain activity, low money moving in and out of accounts.

They say that 28.7 percent of bitcoin toddlers are at a loss right now and if you bought within the last five months, you are 54 likely to be underwater, and this particular group being the most likely to sell and glassnote, is now reporting an increase of wallets. That have been essentially extinguished or dropped to zero, now bitcoin fear index sitting at 20 out of 100, which is the extreme fear level. If we go out to the day chart here on btc, i know we're going to see a whole lot of lines here, but it's worth just zooming in here for a moment, because we could really see that once we broke this 42 000 shelf right here, where My mouse is last time we broke the 42 shelf. Look at that.

We went right back down to about that 36 level and that's essentially where we dropped to right now. If we go to the one hour, we could get a little bit more of an up close and personal look over here. We briefly dropped to about a 36 381 which sits right here on the 36 376 support level. You can see just five dollar five dollars away from a bounce on this line here, pretty incredible, if you don't have these lines yet i definitely encourage uh writing these down here, i'll hide myself for a second uh and right now we are struggling around that 37.

6 line, so you could copy those there on the right, okay and now, we've briefly got to talk about oil and china, oil. Obviously news about the north stream too, and uh expectations that this cancellation was coming from. Germany leading oil briefly to surge up to 98 dollars per barrel on brent near that 100 level that has come back down and relaxed a little bit a since, which is very, very good. We just got news as well coming across here that the mints agreement was quote dead long before the don boss was recognized by putin.

So this is a slam on a peace accord between ukraine and russia. Putin now calling that dead. Now, oil oil recovering uh recovering that is going down which is kind of the opposite of what we think when we recover, but anyway, uh going recovering for all of our energy sakes dropping to about 96 at a point, a five on brent just below 93 on Wti now briefly, we've got to talk about china, china, look home. Sales in china continue to fall.

Ratings are getting yanked on bonds. Like crazy, i mean there's still disaster in the chinese property market. It just doesn't get any coverage right now, because everybody's focused on russia, a lot of - and this is crazy - a lot of resignations are happening, particularly amongst auditors. Yeah, that's not good.

We also have these general properties that stock down 81 after it struggled to repay its debt. China's venico one of the largest developers says they are at the last legs of being able to survive. Now. The good news is china is trying to ease funding restrictions.

Mortgage rates have been cut uh. This is encouraging some new and renewed activity, but so far we've got 27 major companies in china that have so far failed to repay their debts since 2018.. The situation doesn't seem to be getting any better right now, and it comes at the same time as there are more fears again that china is cracking down on specifically textile companies, and so if you we look at the weebs today, we can typically see here uh Yeah, that's right. You've got alibaba and i believe neo yeah, look at that alibaba and neo trading near the bottom of our watch list here.

Baba down about 5.28 neo down about 6.33 bobo, really dancing around this 112 113 line right here. Take a look at some of these other record lows, though. Here we've got roblox down seven percent down at a record low 46-13, so far down about seven percent after they spent about 10 percent of their market cap over 1.1 billion dollars acquiring a banking software company. Remember sofi got approval for their banking charter after acquiring a bank.

I want to say earlier this year. It was about march of 2021, so earlier last year, rather we're in 2022. Now in fact, today, happy 2, 2, 2, 2 2 day, but anyway uh this uh. This banking charter approval was obviously seen as a a massive catalyst and an exciting catalyst for sofi.

It did briefly lead to a run with increased volume, but, as is usual in today's market, convictionless rallies lead to sell-offs down about seven percent after they used all stock uh to end up purchasing this software company. So no cash, just all stock, which is a lot of dilution about ten percent in terms of dilution stock down about seven percent, so that remaining three percent essentially valuing potentially the benefit of sofa having their own a banking software company. Although for 1.1 billion dollars, a lot of folks are scratching their heads wondering, could you not have written a program for 1.1 billion dollars? If donald trump can do it, you could do it anyway. Robin hood.

Look at this back down dragging along the bottom here down. Six, a percent today lemonade also at an all-time low right now, 25 you've got tesla at 8, 20. tesla really dropping intraday here certainly doesn't help that you've got the felicity ace still on fire because of all those car batteries uh in the atlantic ocean. This is a a ship carrying uh thousands of vehicles uh including porsche tycans, that caught fire, and it's been on fire for days, because it's become almost impossible to put out these car battery fires and so that that certainly isn't helping the ev sector today loose.

It also down about two percent uh arc down about 1.62 and if we jump on over to the s p 500 just to see its behavior right now, we could see it trending a little bit closer to that 230, but playing around the uh. Sorry, the 430 line playing around the 431 line right now. Well, folks, there you go! There's your update. If you are looking for those morning, live streams course, member live streams, make sure to check out the programs on building your wealth link down below the path to wealth course just had a massive surge of new lectures posted and i'm super excited to release another batch Today, from lectures that were filmed yesterday, so thanks so much and we'll see you in the next one goodbye.