Hey this is tom. I was up all night yesterday, thinking about russia, ukraine, trying to figure out what the hell is going on here, because something did not add up for me, and i was thinking about everything. That's going on right now the u.s rhetoric, the russia rhetoric. I was like that's just a front.

What's behind all this, so basically this morning we wake up and we hear that goldman sachs are basically saying well. The s p 500 is gon na drop six percent. If an all-out war starts, energy prices are going to go up by 15 and that's kind of normal, that's kind of to be expected, but there's a big. If here, if the conflict happens now here's the thing.

The question is: what exactly is going on here. So yesterday, what you heard is actually two people playing a little bit of a theater. On the one hand, you had russia basically signing a complete dismantling of the mints agreements, basically acknowledging the independence and the sovereignty of the separatist eastern ukraine, parts lugansk and the donetsk, and on the other hand, you had the uk and the us pretty much saying well Invasion has begun or to an extent. Now the question is, and what's putin trying to achieve here now, if putin really wanted to invade ukraine.

This seems like the logical path to it. You acknowledge the independence of these russian separatists. You then wait for them to call on for your help and to prevent the you know, genocide and prevent violence. You send the peacekeeping force, you create a provocation on the border and then eventually that escalates to a war.

You have an excuse. You invade you take over, that's kind of you, don't need to be a genius, that's checkers and i was laying last night and thinking well, that's checkers and he doesn't really play checkers he's more of a chess player and then i figured it out. There's really three options here and i think i know which one is actually going on here and it's going to shock you. It's not what you think so option number one that this is a test of wills.

Putin is trying to achieve. You know nato roll back to you know pre-2014 97 1990. Who knows right trying to get assurances about ukraine, but then i figured out, i think ukraine ain't going to join nato anyways they're, not even near a position to join nato. Nato doesn't want this headache.

They can't really join. Why bring it up right now, it's like saying: well, i don't want my kid injured when he's playing in the nba, the kid can't even dribble, i mean he's not going to the nba and russians. You know, isn't concerned really about ukraine going to nato, so that cannot be real. It's not about nato and all this stuff.

I know a lot of people have been talking about. You know the rhetoric sounds a lot like 1930, the breathing space and living space. Whatever i think it's just doing it to scare you guys um and then i thought to myself. Well maybe it's option number two.

Maybe it's not about nato. Maybe it's about this theater right, we're both biden and putin. They know that this is just an act and they both talk this rhetoric in order to create a situation where it actually this escalates at the end and both claim you know, the achievement biden will claim he de-escalated the war world war iii from happening. Putin will claim that he's the next stalin, slash lenin and his heritage of you know preventing ukraine from joining nato and they all get to claim their.

You know their achievements knowing all along this isn't going to war, but they need to sell this, and i thought to myself that cannot be it because if this was the case - and he doesn't really need to announce the independence and recognition of lugansk and the nietzsche, Now he probably gets this from biden as a as a peace offering there's no. If he takes it by force as it did yesterday. I don't think they're playing that game. I don't think it's orchestrated.

I think biden is opportunistic in this case. I think so is boris johnson, so is putin, but i think that while biden and boris johnson were playing checkers, i think putin was beating beating them in chess and that's what i realized last night 3 a.m. I was like, oh, i finally got it finally understand what's going on here and it's it's crazy, because it's not what you think. None of what we actually talked about so far is actually what's going on here and it freaking dawned on me.

I've been in the u.s too long not to understand this, so the one thing i need you to understand, and this is the kind of the basis of what i finally decipher this game. I understand exactly what's going on here and that's why i think there's zero percent chance of a war now, even though you may hear things like it's more worse than ever blah blah blah. Now i finally understand there's not going to be a war. Zero percent um! Well, never say never right and i've been wrong before i would say you know very unlikely.

Of course there can be a war. All you need is some. You know idiot soldier on the border to do some stupid and then um. It can escalate pretty quick to full-on war, so i don't really say zero percent.

I was just kidding, but i think low likelihood of a war. So here's what's happening here, so you have to understand that for russia and there's no business of war and that's the final point i got yesterday. Russia is not in the business of war. Russia doesn't have military contractors in the military, complex, there's no money in war to be made in russia.

It's all government owned, it's an expense. So there's no lobbying, there's no military money being made at all. Any war is a massive cost to russia nobody's making money. So there's none of this.

You know warmongering just to to make money. There's no lobby, there's no such thing, there's one guy who calls the shots and he decides everything. So if that's the case, there's one more point here, you need to understand. Also, one thing: that's different about russia and and the us and uk, and the entire western side is that russia doesn't really believe in full-on conflicts to get what they need.

They just want to be able to influence. Basically, they have this model of tsd troll subvert destabilize and when they do all three they get what they want and they can play the long game. They don't mind waiting a few years to get what they need. They don't really need a full out war.

Here's the thing think about it. This way, i think what happened is that putin put a trap for biden, boris johnson and they took it because they were too greedy and i'll, explain why so for boris, johnson and biden? This is a massive opportunity right. They get to not talk about the things that they're scared about internal problems, that they have inflation party gate. Whatever is going on over there in the uk they get to talk about this evil putin right and not that i'm saying that putin is not evil.

He's. Definitely evil, but that's a really nice distraction. It's like he's, giving them a prize sort of thing right, so they took the bait and he knew they're going to take the bait now. What happened is that when they started heating up this war rhetoric, essentially they exposed themselves because in this war rhetoric they also exposed a few things number one that they're not gon na do anything for ukraine, no troops, no equipment, no tanks, no air support, nothing.

So basically, they hung out ukraine to dry and put and expose this. The other part which is interesting is that i think that what he did right now because of how they threw ukraine under the bus is, i think he sent the message to former warsaw pact countries like poland, bulgaria, czech republic, whatever right, he basically tell him hey Your allies, you know they ain't all that and he's kind of increasing his influence in the region. Now here's the really interesting part, i think that he actually succeeded in what he really wanted to do. He succeeded in destabilizing one of the most stable, pro-western governments.

Ukraine has ever had in his history and the way he did it was nothing short of brilliant and i'm not admiring. The guy, i think, is a piece of crash and then evil dictator, but what he did. He actually checkmated biden and and boris, and i finally understood this yesterday - he basically got them to fearmonger for him because they needed it for their own political agenda. For example, yesterday we had biden screaming at zielinski the ukrainian president that he need to evacuate himself from the capital of ukraine.

Now what it did - and that's i couldn't believe i didn't figure this earlier, so he got biden to do all this. What he did is he took a situation where the u.s created and completely fear-based narrative in ukraine, so ukraine was busy with their own economy, is getting better money flowing in military is better than ever stable government pro-western everybody was dealing with making it better ukraine. For the first time in many, many years were actually moving ahead and even when the conflict began, nobody in ukraine took this seriously up until about a week ago, from all my ukrainian friends, all i heard is like this is just you know this. For the past week, because biden kept beating their wardrobe and boris and all of the western media, what happened is that people started taking this seriously? So what happens? Is you have this crazy escalation from? You know really good focus on economics focus on on on getting things done.

Panic panic will basically take a toll on the economy as we see right, take it on the economy, destabilize, current government, because you know when the economy goes south the government gets fired. A new government gets voted in, putin gets to put in his new puppet, like he did in other countries, and he doesn't need the word for that. Pretty much putin has already won, unfortunately, and because he's already won and he got what he wanted. There is no need for war, so that's why i think there's not going to be any war.

Of course. I might be wrong about this and for many reasons maybe i'm just misinterpreting him. Maybe some crazy soldier on the border will do something stupid. I don't know, but this is what i think, and i feel very strongly about this, so i actually have to double down on my prediction that there's no war coming, but let's see what happens, let me know below, especially if you're from the region.

Let me know if my logic actually talks to you all right.