Oh okay, so we have to talk about palantir, there's a lot to cover in this video. Before we start, don't click, nothing, don't smash; nothing don't buy nothing. Let's talk about palantir, the queue for financials and, what's ahead, starting right now, hey thank you for staying with me. My name is tom.

If this is your first time here, as always, you know we don't click, nothing, we don't smash nothing and we don't buy nothing. So the only thing we're going to do here is talk, i'm going to talk, you're going to listen and then, at the end of it, you're going to put a comment below basically answering my main questions. Now this is exactly the game plan for the next five to 10 minutes, so the q4 financials are coming out tomorrow before market open. So i'm assuming we'll see the results at around 7 00 a.m.

Now this is a good opportunity to let you guys know. I will be streaming the entire q4 earnings, including one hour ahead, so 7 a.m. I'm gon na be live with sasha yanchin he's going to be co-hosting with me and we're going to cover everything you ever want to know about valentin. The q4 numbers we're going to be there one hour ahead of time, breaking down everything, so if they actually release the data a little bit before the call we're going to have it for you first thing, so 7 am be there or b block.

I would have said square, but they changed it into blocks, so be there or be blocked. I guess so. Let's talk about here and what's ahead. So obviously the company took a massive bidding of the past 90 days and you know my position on this.

I think that the company is insanely, undervalued and now more than ever so the first question on everybody's mind: i'm guessing is: will this actually move the needle if the q4 financials are astonishing? Will this move the needle for palantir? Will the share price actually go up? Now i'm going to be honest with you, nobody really knows, including myself, but i can speculate that. I don't think that's going to be the case, unfortunately, because here's the thing palantir is grossly misrepresented in institutional ownership. Only 35 percent of planetary float is being held by institutionals, guys, like blackrock vanguard, goldman sachs, all of whom, by the way, are shareholders of palantir. I didn't just name them randomly, but it's still only 35.

Just for comparison. We have amd at 70 percent. We have nvidia at 70 percent. We have snowflake at 68, so all of these companies are hovering from 65 to 70 institutionals, while palantir is at 35..

Actually their institutional ownership is even lower than tesla, believe it or not. The queen of retail 35 for palantir 41 of tesla, even tesla, the queen of retail, has more institutional investors than palantir. Now, as part of the turf, i guess when you have a lot of retail participation in a stock like palantir, you know we tend to be a little bit more fickle a little bit more volatile. That's how retail investors are and that's why you're going to see a lot of volatility in the stock for quite a long time, and the truth is that institutionals have been pouring into volunteer.

They have been buying the dip. However, it's still not enough 65 of it is being held by retail investors, who will be quite volatile and quite itchy to sell and buy, and i don't think q4 financial is actually gon na change that, in fact, i assume stellar q4 financials 1.5 billion dollars in Revenue about 400 to 450 in free cash flow and guidance to about 2 billion next year, all great results. But i don't think it's going to move the needle when you're actually going to see retail participation go down to the 30s and then institutionals go up to the 70s or at least the high 60s, like we have the amd and the snowflake and the nvidia's, which I just showed you, then you're going to see more price stability and more of an incline so far, institutionals are happy to nibble at it by the dip a little bit and slowly get in. But you know it's a long term investment.

So i'm not concerned. So if you have any hopes of buying palantir and then hoping for a crazy bull run after the q4 financials, i don't think it's going to happen now beyond the obvious there's a few things i really want to see in this q4 financials and those are specific Issues that i care about - and i suggest you pay attention to them as well, because they're quite important. The first thing i want to see if palantir is able to accelerate commercial growth outside the us in the u.s they have stellar commercial sector growth. In saying, can they do it outside the u.s, because it's going to have a massive impact on the potential total addressable market tam of talent here? So i want to see the row rest of the world commercial sector growth volunteer.

It's a very niche data point, but one that i think is critical here now. The second point that i don't think gets enough respect, or at least enough coverage in mainstream media. As far as volunteer is the fact they're still highly concentrated. This company only has 200 clients and to make things worse, only about 40 of them, which is the top 20 percent hold 50 of the business of volunteer.

So palantir is dependent for half of its revenue on the top 20 of their clients, only 40 clients and that's a huge risk. Now the number has been growing quite significantly. Things are definitely getting better, but i want to make sure that this keeps happening because, with 200 clients and 40 holding half of your revenue, it's a huge business risks that i don't like to have in the company i'm investing in now. The next point has to do with volunteers, history now palantir started out as a government service provider.

In fact, they've been exclusively that for almost a decade and a half and as such they've accumulated a big backload of government clients and when the commercial sector started out just a few years ago, it was grossly misrepresented. Now things are getting better. In fact, in q3 we saw 60 government 40 commercial things are getting better, but i want to see some progress. I want to see more government versus commercial evenness.

I guess equilibrium, if you might call it that, so i'm not expecting to see a 50 50 split right now in q4. I think that's too early, but if we can see 55 government 45 commercial, if we can see an improvement, a trend that is getting better. We're getting closer to that equilibrium, i'm going to be happy with that now. The last point of concern for me, is the growth in sg, a the sales general and administrative expenses for the company.

Now i know they hired a lot of sales people. In fact, a lot of them they had no sales force up until just a few months ago. They are spending a lot of money on that. But all i'm saying is that the sgna has to start trending downwards.

They had 750 million sg a just three years ago, trailing 12 months, they're, almost at 1.4 billion of sgna. That is way too much now, i'm assuming that, once they have the first ramp up of the sales force, they get that in place and we'll see some reduction that obviously, i think also these numbers include a lot of stock based compensation which actually is declining as Well, so i just want to see some downwards trend. I don't want to see a crazy increase in sgna, because so far every increase in revenue have been completely correlated to increase in sg a so we didn't see any actual. You know difference there, so they went from 600 to 1.4 billion in revenues and they went from 750 to 1.3 billion in sg a so it's almost one to one correlated.

We have to see some efficiencies, we want to see the margins getting better and i think it's going to happen, but i just want to see it and not just talk about it and now. Let's talk about valuation and my own target price for palantir. Now i've made a whole video with the dcf, showing you why i have 35 for this company as my own target price. Of course, i'm not a financial advisor.

You got to do your own research find out for yourself. My reasoning behind this is quite simple. I see palantir as a massive disrupter. Similarly, to how tesla disrupted the auto industry, i think volunteer is about to do the same to the business intelligence, data and ai industry and for the next 10 years.

I see them almost monopolizing this business and while that's happening, i'm also figuring out that data is slowly becoming the new oil pretty much. I think the next decade is going to be all about data and i'm really excited about what planeteer can give you. If you want to look at more specifics of how volunteers actually do what they do, how their system works, what kind of benefit they offer to clients? What's the bottom line savings they can show to clients. Everything is available online, there's a whole book with test cases from palantir and skywise that have actually saved airlines.

Quite significant amounts of money. Skywise is obviously just an implementation of foundry for the airline business. There's a lot of test cases out there, which you can read and educate yourself. So whenever you hear you know, people tell you well, we don't know what valentina is doing.

There's a whole book showing you exactly how they work, what they do and how they save money. If you just really want to know about it, it's easy to do it. If you just want to keep screaming that you don't understand their business, that's fine as well! I don't mind in any case, i'm really excited about where this is heading, i feel like. The palantir community have upgraded.

Over the past few months, we weeded out all the tourists and speculators, and now just the hardcore people who believe in the company and who want to do actual, thorough, in-depth research and stay in it for the long term. I could not be more excited about the future of this community of palantir and the stock price, as well, obviously will follow it might take a year or two or three. It is what it is. I have the patience and i don't mind if you don't don't, invest simple.