Hey guys, it's sasha panicking is easy doing. The right thing is not the stock market is read, everything is falling and gray stocks are 50 down. Inflation is so high that the fed itself is panicking and arranging an emergency meeting later today. Everyone around you is panicking telling you the world is about to end world war.

Three is about to start. The markets are going to crash 50 from here, so you should sell everything and buy back when stocks are 50. Cheaper, sell your stocks, sell your property refinance. Your home borrow to the max on every type of credit you've got when you hear deranged imbeciles, drawing lines on an ipad that apparently prove everything is about to collapse, based on analysis.

They clearly don't understand one iota when you see all of this drama unfolding. There is one thing: one thing that is abundantly clear: the market is fearful the exact same people who are telling you now that everything is doomed today, because everything all the analysis is pointing that way. All of those people were telling you the exact opposite when the stock market was booming. Before the correction happened, when the growth stocks were a hundred percent higher, and for me the signs of what's happening right now are abundantly clear.

This is one where i completely agree with what warren buffett said to berkshire hathaway shareholders in 1986 and again in 2004. I choose to be greedy only when others are fearful, and let me tell you something really important. Imagine that you decide to go shopping and in the shop you find a magic money tree. It is right there a little sapling in a pot, but it has a picture that shows you that, eventually, with all the right nurturing conditions, this little twig should grow into a big ass money tree.

There are a lot of risks. The money tree might not survive. The upcoming winter, the money tree might not take to the new soil. The money tree could get eaten by parasites.

It could die from disease. Maybe some rabbits or other animals are going to come and eat away at the foot of the tree, causing it to rot. So it's by no means a dead cert, but all the information that you see points to on balance, they're being quite a decent probability for growing into a huge money tree that is going to grow dollar banknotes instead of leaves and that plant is currently on sale. It has a 50 discount sticker compared to how much that same plant cost over the last couple of years when you're standing there in the shop.

Looking at that sampling in a pot, what questions would you have for the sales assistant? Do you ask them whether they think the sun is going to shine on friday next week? Do you ask them if they think that the climate is going to be a little bit warmer, perhaps a little bit colder over the next six months than usual? Or would you instead ask them how big this sort of tree is likely to grow? How many branches a typical tree like this, gets when it's mature and how many leaves it has per branch, maybe and maybe once it grows whether those leaves are one dollar or a hundred dollar banknotes. It sounds funny right because it's a parable, but this is exactly how i am looking at some of the grey stocks that i'm invested in at the moment. The amount of noise out there about short-term fluctuations is mind-boggling. It's just completely bonkers and off the charts.

Some people will tell you that the tea leaves in their cup, or maybe some tarot cards that have laid out have forecasted a very particularly wet spring, and so they think the money tree will cost 50 less than it does today in just a few months time And you know what they might even be right: it might be a wet spring and the tree could be selling at a bigger discount rate in a few months. But on balance of probabilities they will be wrong a lot more often than they will be right, because historic charts tell you that particularly wet springs are actually very rare and there is no good data that can tell you whether or not it will be a wet Spring before it happens, and the tea leaves the charlatan is using, as evidence are just that they're, just tea leaves in a pot. So would i buy the magic money tree based on all of this? Well, of course, i would because i am an analyst and not a snake or salesman. Maybe that tree will fall in price.

Maybe it will not. I am not buying the tree, so i can then sell it to someone in three months time. I am buying that tree so that it can grow for me in 10 to 20 years time, when i am going to be climbing up a massive ladder with a huge basket collecting them dollar banknotes. A similar analogy can be made for more mature stocks as well, but these are probably more like i don't know, a money printer.

If you go to the shop to buy a money printer, you will want to know how quickly does it print money? What sort of money does it print? How likely is the printer to get jammed? How much ink does it cost and what is the typical lifespan of one of these money printers and what happens when it stops working? So why would you not want to analyze a value stock in the same way? Why have people suddenly decided that? Because today the wind is blowing at exactly 17 knots in the southeasterly direction? They should ignore all fundamentals of the money. Printer - and here is another thing. I understand it's really hard. I understand that there are people out there who will be putting these gamblers on a pedestal and it might look like those gamblers deserve to be on a pedestal.

If the gambler puts all of their chips on red and the roulette does come up red, then the noise is only going to get louder, proclaiming the gambler to be some kind of a messiah who clearly has an infallible system of knowing exactly which way the roulette Is going to go every time? That kind of thing happens all the time and in an age when getting rich quick is glorified, idiots are selling jpegs to each other for millions of dollars, crypto scammers are so brazen that it just defies all belief in an age when people want instant gratification and An immediate one, bazillion percent return on their investment. It is very natural that people want to look for a shortcut, but here is a very simple truth. The shortcut is a dark alley in the middle of the night, in the middle of nowhere at new moon. You might want to walk down it and, if you do, you could find yourself saving a few minutes of your journey because it does in that scenario, turn out to be a shortcut.

But you could also walk down it and find out that it's very long and leads you absolutely nowhere leading you to be lost or you could even get robbed blind by someone hiding in the shadows losing all of your money. There is an old russian saying that the quickest way is the way you know and it couldn't apply more in this scenario. If you want to gamble - and you understand that you are gambling - please go ahead - i am not here to be the moral police, but please don't confuse yourself, but thinking that your gambling is some kind of a maverick investing or trading move. The gambling fallacy can very easily give you false confidence when you bet on a horse that wins this is this happens a lot, even if you know absolutely nothing about horses or horse racing, it is very easy to feel that you have that special edge that nobody Else has, or some kind of unique special method for picking the winner be careful out there and please make sure that you always base your investing decisions on analysis.

Data and statistics do not take the opinion of some random guy on the internet, as fact - and that includes me - don't listen to anyone on youtube who's telling you that they know for sure what is going to happen, however hard it is and, however much noise there Is stay true to making the right decisions for the right reasons?.