I have got tweets and messages and emails piling up from people saying there are people making videos about the federal reserve having an emergency meeting on monday and in this video we're gon na talk about what the heck this is. This is something we actually need to care about, and we're going to talk about what something that we do need to care about is, and that's what the director of the consumer sentiment index just said. We'll talk about that. You really want to hear what they just said by the way, if you missed those market open, live streams, remember we just did one except it's in the group link down below.

So if you want to join and be part of those check out the link down below, we had a great time together and we learned a lot and i talked about when i'm going to be buying back in so link down below quick note. This video is brought to you by ftxus, which you can check out via the links and down below. It is a phenomenal way for you to not only conduct technical analysis on cryptocurrencies, but also trade. It immediately.

One of the supports i'm watching right now is actually the 45-700 line. We had multiple pings on the one hour chart or bounces off of this in december, and right now we're getting roughly rejected by it. Uh we've briefly briefly broached it, but got rejected almost immediately. So, let's see if we can break that, because i think that's another bullish support to get crypto moving again, especially uh bitcoin uh.

But then again somebody follow a bitcoin that if we can get nice breaks on bitcoin that helps so, let's talk about what's going on. First, this federal reserve meeting there's a lot of hubbub about what is going on with the fed board of governors, particularly this meeting right here. A closed board meeting scheduled for february 14th and when you look up the code, which authorizes the federal reserve board to conduct these meetings, there is the right for them to conduct closed door meetings. They could end up voting to decide whether or not to make the meeting public, but they can use these meetings for either discussions about banks and banking charges or whatever, but also monetary policies like setting discount rates, and so this is creating a lot of fear that Wait a minute, oh my gosh, if they're having this oops, if they're having this sudden meeting on the 14th, is that a sign that the federal reserve is is kind of quietly sending us and is? Is everybody suddenly going to freak out about this that uh that the the federal reserve is scheduling a meeting here and nobody's really talking about it yet because they want to quietly put it on their website and say see we told you about it and we're going To rug, pull you on on monday.

Well, one of the reasons some folks think that the federal reserve might rug. Pull us on monday is because one of the most hawkish members of the board of governors came out yesterday, mr bullard, and suggested that hey maybe we need an inter-policy meeting to just raise rates now and just do it. This is a quote: we've heard a lot now is just do it like the nike slogan, just get rates up and get some credibility back at the fed to actually show that the fed is not so far behind inflation, but actually getting ahead of inflation. See one of the reasons you don't want the federal reserve to be, or at least appear to be behind inflation, which i think we can all agree is probably they are.

But anyway is because that leaves businesses less hope that supply chain issues or whatever will lead to less inflation as uh things get better and uh, and instead, if they have less hope that things are going to get better, what do they end up doing? They raise prices more and we just had reports out from under armour and goodyear, and both of them were terrible for inflation under armour expects inflation pressures and supply chain issues to persist all year. The goodyear executives said basically the same thing that they see these issues. Certainly persisting for the next quarters and they neither of them seem to see any light at the end of the tunnel, but these supply chain issues are going to get any better, but first we've got to know this. This fed meeting on monday is this something to be concerned about, and after we talk about that remember i got to tell you what this sentiment survey or the director of the sentiment surveys at the university of michigan just said, and it's something to be a little Nervous about all right, so when it comes to these board meetings, look you all know.

I study the fed a lot and i did not get a ping at all about this meeting and that's got me scratching my head a little bit because i'm a big fed watcher and so that got me thinking wait a minute. Maybe this is just the normal course of business for the fed. It doesn't take a lot to just click on board meetings here and you literally get a schedule of this crap and they have these meetings all the freaking time. This fed meeting is not a big deal the two day ones here are the big ones right.

There's your december big meeting where they have the press conference after there's the january meeting, where they have the press conference after they're all closed meetings. We don't get the transcripts for these closed meetings for like six years, but this is normal. I mean look at this. We had two of these meetings.

In january, we had one of these extra meetings in december two of the meetings in november. In october, we had four meetings every single week. Basically, they had one here in september they had one in august. They had two and in july they had one in june.

They had at least one. So it's like. Okay, every single month in the past we've had these meetings. Sometimes, multiple meetings, especially since the fed, is not having a meeting in february, followed by a press conference, because the next fed meeting is march 15th, the 16th.

This is not an emergency meeting. This is not anything abnormal. This is not something to be concerned about. This is more um, just like fear-mongering uh, and i know a lot of people have been accusing me of fear-mongering uh, but i i believe my goal is just to provide reality and facts and try to rationalize those facts, and sometimes things can be a little bit More negative now some folks have also wondered hey, but kevin.

There's also this section here that says matters to be considered the advance and discount rates to be charged by the federal reserve, blah blah blah. The thing is, this section is: is present almost in every single meeting. You see that over here as well advance of discount rates. This was back in october.

So, in my opinion, nothing special here now. Look, this doesn't mean that the federal reserve won't do anything on february 14th. It just means that the fact that we saw this meeting on the schedule is mostly just clickbait. Is this? Who cares? It doesn't really mean anything that doesn't mean the federal reserve.

Couldn't do something on that day? You know right, they could maybe, or they could also rug pulse on a sunday like they did in march, when they dropped rates from two percent to zero percent on a sunday right uh. So we could get rug pulled in the opposite direction, but i don't think just the existence of this meeting is anything to be concerned about all right. Now we got to talk about something else. That is a little bit more concerning, so we just got the consumer sentiment survey and it came in not great.

We had estimates that the consumer sentiment index would come in at about 67 down from about 67.2. Last month it came in at 61.7, which is the lowest consumer sentiment reading since 2014. But there are a couple things that i want to show you. One is actually going back to a statement from the director of surveys at the university of michigan, and this is probably one of the most concerning lines here and again, i'm not trying to be fetish here.

I'm just trying to be real. Listen to this here, while supply chains and essential workers have sparked initial increases in prices and wages, in other words, hey, okay prices initially went up because of uh. You know essential workers and all this or whatever right. This is the bad part right here: okay, ready for this, a wage price spiral that has subsequently developed is no longer tied to those precipitating conditions, so, in other words, supply chains and essential workers created this initial surge of inflation.

Now, if you get a decoupling of the wage price spiral from supply chains, it actually means that supply chains could improve. But then you end up with a continued wage price spiral where people demand more money. Companies want to preserve their margins, so they raise prices and then we just get prices laddering up. That's bad! Okay, uh! We! We don't want that! That's uh! That's not good! And this this is not so great, but there was another thing that was stated as well and that's if we jump on over to the survey that was published today, take a look at this.

The recent declines have meant that the sentiment index now signals the onset of a sustained downturn in consumer spending. The depth of the slump, however, is subject to several caveats that have not been present in prior downturns: the impact of unspent stimulus money, the partisan distortion of expectations, the pandemic, pandemic's disruption of spending and work patterns. Households have amassed substantial savings and reserves uh from stimmys. I like how they called it.

Stimmys now note this declining consumer sentiment could also have the impact of slowing down spending which, if we get a reduction in aggregate demand, that is actually how we could end a wage price spiral. So maybe this slowing in consumer sentiment is actually a good thing to finally start quelling inflation. What you don't want, though, is to reduce consumer sentiment to the point where we go into recession at the same time as the federal reserve is hiking rates. That would be the worst case scenario anyway, uh yeah, so interesting, not great, but very, very interesting.

If we go ahead and get the latest tier uh chart that we have, you can see, the monthly data is uh is pulling us into some of the lowest levels here that we've seen again in the last decade for consumer sentiment, we can go to another chart Here and let's do current economic conditions, uh really worst economic condition, expectations for also about the last 10 years, so interesting survey, but i think really the bottom lines here of the video are. The fed meeting is click bait. What's more important is uh the potential of a decoupled wage price spiral, and that should motivate the federal reserve if they believe a wage price spiral is taking hold in our economy. That should motivate the federal reserve to get off their butt and do something so anyway.

Uh thanks so much for watching this video. If you found this video useful consider sharing it check out the programs link down below to get access to my private live streams which i hold every single day, especially at market open and we'll see in the next one. Thanks bye.