Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open live stream, so this is inflation week. It's gon na be big uh, a lot of expectations. Pricing in a 7.3 inflation rate year over year. I think the month over month is also going to be quite interesting to see what ends up happening uh, but no matter what happens.

Markets are expecting higher inflation for longer. So i don't know how it'll be interesting to see how much of a catalyst cpi ends up really being because the expectations are already so high. But anyway, yes, 7.3 is the year-over-year expectation, that's up from seven percent last month and a month over month. The hope is that omicron has depressed the month over month, a little bit uh so that it comes in at 0.4, rather than the 0.5 that we had last month, uh this uh.

This pricing in is uh, leading some, for example, some strategist this morning had a bloomberg had some bloomberg coverage that uh at jpmorgan, suggesting that that's it uh time to time to buy stocks. Everything's been priced in, and this is something that's been talked about. A lot uh, i think one of the the neat things that you can do is looking at the fed futures, the fed rate monitors, and we can. We can see that every week we continue to get more and more pricing in of of higher rate hikes.

What would probably doesn't get priced in - and this is hopefully the direction things don't actually go. Is that the rate hikes don't actually do anything to bring uh inflation down that uh? That, i think, is a lot harder to price in uh and, of course nobody hopes that uh that's the direction that we go in uh, so we also as of friday afternoon, had a lot of talk about potentially uh this uh, this peloton partnership no or acquisition And so we've gotten a lot of moves on peloton uh, either potentially uh nike or amazon, potentially acquiring the company or uh, maybe uh, maybe even apple acquiring the company. One of the things that that i think is so incredible about peloton uh that i've always loved about peloton is is really that they bought pre-core. In my opinion, for a really good deal.

Uh, they got a great deal on pre-core stock. Right now is up about 29 in pre-market here, uh, which, which i think still puts it at about what 30 or something. So it's it's still well in the toilet, uh relative to its previous pricing, but anyway, they've gotten so darn, cheap, uh and uh within them. They bought this company called pre-core for 400 million dollars or something like that: 440 million or whatever they're worth like eight billion right now, uh plus thirty percent uh yeah.

It's it's at about 31.78 right now, uh, but anyway, pre-core is, is basically your strength, training, uh machine manufacturer for for almost all these, these strength, training machines that you see at either hotels or at uh, gyms uh and their their high quality machines are great. I really think the the hidden secret for peloton isn't the bike or the treadmill it's getting into strength, training and really getting their platform out to every single machine. So if we can see something like that, uh you know end up going over to apple or uh. Whatever amazon, i think, there's some incredible potentials.

I would imagine that for amazon it would end up having something that becomes a little uh um. How should you say amazon, i feel like, would take it into a more low-cost direction and then try to get a fitness subscription going, maybe or include that with prime uh apple would probably go more in that higher end direction. So it would be kind of interesting to see where they end up going with that and then nike and i don't know but uh anyway, so we'll see what happens there. There's also talk about frontier acquiring spirit airlines.

Now this is an interesting one, because they're acquiring them for a uh. Now here it is 19 premium. The stock right now is only up about 12 percent, but they're requiring them for about a 19 premium off of the uh closing price friday. The the deal essentially values spirit shares at about 25.83 and right now, it's selling for about 24.38, so still about a buck and a half off of uh the valuation that we would expect to see, but anyway spirit.

Let's take a look here: how they're doing uh they are, i believe, they're up somewhere on 12th. Like i said 12 right now, uh, i apparently can't find them save there. We go there. We go okay, so uh yeah.

This is obviously when windows broke here. You can see that, and so you can see, the enthusiasm has uh leveled off, but that's okay, that's usually how it works. Uh talk about nissan no longer wanting to produce gas vehicles. I imagine there's a time stamp for that.

We haven't seen that quite yet, and i think a big interesting thing here is uh bloomberg, put together a piece about uh. The the scenarios for for potential tightening cycles and their arguments are are such that, if we price in five rate hikes now with a taper this year as well, then uh, then you're likely to uh you're likely to see the market stabilize. If inflation comes down, the downside risk they mentioned is that we get this tightening by the fed, and then inflation doesn't come down quickly enough, which, unfortunately, this monetary policy can have an 18 month lag. So you know you tighten with the fed.

It takes 18 months for it actually to take effect, which is really you know to the end of 2023, and if inflation itself does not come down, which i mean it should because otherwise inflation would have to keep rising right. But if it doesn't come down itself, then the fed could potentially get even more aggressive, and that would mean more tightening uh, which also has a delayed effect, and the worst case scenario would be this. This merger of inflation and consumer activity coming down. At the same time as the fed is crimping down so that that would sort of the worst case longer term scenario over over the next year or so and then even bloomberg mentions that would have potential recessionary impacts so uh.

Hopefully that does not happen. Let's take a look at what we got here so uh. Here's a peloton talked about the peloton uh fundware also announced a strategic partnership. I don't know much about why but uh that's one of the reasons we're seeing spirit, peloton and fun we're up uh.

We talked about peloton spirit and funware's partnership, uh and then, of course, crypto has has uh done quite well over the weekend, uh sitting at a bitcoin sitting now at 42, 800 ethereum's, almost at 3100, which remember if you ever want to trade crypto check out ftx Via the links in the description down below - and this is of course leading the crypto miners to move today - so that's uh, that's pretty typical uh the crypto miners moving uh. Can these these can sometimes be a nice little leveraged or sometimes even a delayed way. A delayed and leveraged way to trade, uh crypto, so riot, blockchain hive, hud, 8 marathon, doesn't matter any of these, so this is where you're seeing some green today. I do find it interesting that snowflake is up about 5.7 today because they were also up quite a bit on friday and if we kind of look at the day chart here, uh they've come down substantially from some of their higher prices and one of the neat Things is that snowflake to me is almost like a little bit of a bellwether for uh for risk appetite, and so it's not a surprise that, as btc is moving up you're also seeing snowflake move up, because the valuation of snowflake is quite wild anyway.

Okay, so let's see here so snowflake arcimoto, these guys moving up a little bit here in pre-market uh nice, four, five percent uh, there's amc up two point: five: one exp and lemonade these guys moving about two percent here with shift and if we scroll down to The bottom, let's see what we got over here, alibaba is actually the one getting hit the hardest uh down about 4.5 percent - that's interesting to me as there's there's so been so much talk about how the chinese economy economy is getting so much more accommodation from both The fiscal side, the monetary side and their stock prices are insanely low and so you're getting stimulus and low stock prices in china, whereas in in america you you have still relatively elevated stock prices and a lagging uh. You know fiscal support and that'll expire and uh. Tightening coming from the fat sets is really an interesting environment and quite a difference so seeing alibaba move down here. 4.5 is a little surprising i'll see if there's some news with alibaba, really quick, let's go find out uh and then maybe i can learn a little bit more too about what's going on with fun uh, but you wonder how fun's impacting dwack all right.

What do we got here so alibaba, who remembers full house, welcome to the alibaba hotel and casino uh? Let's see here, alibaba, oh, oh interesting! Okay, so it looks like there's some form of share registration, potentially implying that softbank is getting ready to sell a bunch of its stock, potentially as much as a billion shares and uh, and that somehow this might signal an exit of uh softbank from their investment. Remember softbank is, is a massive fund. It's not really a bank. It's called soft bank, but uh anyway, um yeah, it looks like citibank, is saying that this this filing is a signal that softbank is about to bail.

That's uh, that's quite interesting! Okay, so that could be. I can explain the larger movement there on uh, alibaba, sorry, charlie monger, and let's look at fun where okay, so fun. Where has uh now announced a strategic partnership with campaign nucleus, yeah yeah. I have no idea who that is, but um yeah.

We know that fun was a in advertising related play around campaigns and so uh some form of partnership with campaign nucleus, apparently rewarded. Okay, let's go. Let me go take a peek and see what else was this suit saw saying all right, let's see here so saudi oil price rise shows biggest sellers sees hot market persisting yeah. Let's take a look at oil, really quick oil and and the futures for stocks had a really interesting move.

Uh this uh earlier stock futures were down uh uh, like last night. They were down somewhere around half of a percent and and oil futures were also down it, which was really weird uh because they often have been doing the opposite to each other and uh. Now, obviously, futures are up for stocks, and oil is pretty much flat. Brent sitting at 93 and wti sitting about 92 uh kind of interesting okay.

So, let's see what else we have hmm, okay, bloomberg talking about the 10-year treasury life beyond two-year yields. Yes, okay, all right! Let's go! Look together! Let's see what we got. Okay, so future's rotating up just a little bit here. In fact, let's quickly just grab those uh yeah, you can see here about a tenth to a quarter of a percent and i think it'd be important to see some stability going into inflation in the inflation print.

On thursday, let's see eight is tuesday. Nine is wednesday. Ten is thursday yeah thursday, it's interesting. Usually they do friday, uh, but anyway, so yeah.

I i think, if we get this kind of stability of of uh, the stock market into uh inflation that that'll be very needed uh, especially after this crazy january that we've had but uh. Let's see front here, we talked about frontier, hmm tesla subpoenaed by sec about complying with musk settlement. Oh interesting, uh, so remember back when there was a settlement from elon tweeting. You know uh, we'll take tesla private at 4, 20 or whatever, and and that led the stock to move the sec wanted.

Elon musk's twitter account to essentially be monitored and they wanted a promise that tesla would monitor any any tweet by elon and it i wouldn't be surprised if the sec is like yeah. We want to. We want to see what your controls are, because it kind of seems like it's only elon musk tweeting, especially since last week he was calling joe biden a wet sock, puppet yeah. That's quite interesting: okay, uh! Let's also take a look quickly here at what we got.

This week for earnings, that's gon na be fun. That's gon na be another big, tell uh earnings this week, but we'll look at this in just a second here. Let me quickly grab earnings, you know uh, interestingly earnings. We don't have that many weeks left of earnings.

So we've almost gotten through the madness uh all the companies so far have been really saying the same thing: uh, it's just a matter now of uh. What's q1 gon na actually look like you know, q4 was great for a lot of companies across the board. Can we keep that strength going into q1? Is the question all right? Let's see here so earnings, we have oh we've uh tyson food this morning. That would be interesting for for supply chains.

I'm going to write these down, so we got tyson, especially since they've been raising meat prices like crazy, hasbro. There's another potential supply chain, one those reported this morning, an energizer. Apparently they did really well okay, then, after market today we have chegg take to amgen. Oh simon property group, so we'll cover those today, so that'll be fun and then on tuesday we have pfizer bp harley.

These are all on tuesday, that's cool uh peloton after hours tomorrow, corsair chipotle, lyft, trivago, apps that'll be fun. Uh wednesday cvs, canopy growth after hours. We've got ooh disney, uber sonos, twilio zynga. Oh it's gon na be an entertaining week and then thursday, which is cpi data day twitter, pepsi coca-cola affirm, zillow cloudflare upwork.

It's gon na be a fun week, all right, cool, so tesla so yeah. This is the the subpoena we were talking about and uh they're seeking information about tesla. Ah, that's funny, that's literally what it was yeah uh seeking information about tesla's governance process in compliance with a settlement reach yeah, so that that's basically that they want to see what the heck he's up to uh and if anybody's, actually monitoring, which honestly i mean based On some of the latest tweets, i highly doubt um. I do wonder if there was a catalyst as as to why didn't elaborate on what prompted the filing all right never mind, then that's funny yeah, because sometimes they'll be like you'll see a reference like.

Oh somebody did this, and maybe it was like, oh well, because he said this. We want to now check. You know facebook threatening to leave europe over not potentially being able to export data from europe to america, which obviously a data dependent business. That would be quite interesting.

I don't know how popular facebook and instagram are in europe, but i can't imagine leaving an entire continent is, is is very beneficial. It's certainly not going to help your business out in america. You know - and it certainly brings your business to zero over there and that's quite odd all right. Let's see what else we got i'd say mostly uh stability here in and a lot of green, actually uh, specifically amongst the those the companies with news like peloton and spirit spirits, starting to price in more trying to get to that 25 80-ish level, which is about Where, where the value should be uh peloton coming up 6.6 after drop uh we're on uh on friday, a lot of the crypto companies, but really once we scroll past crypto and alibaba on the losing side.

Most stocks seem to be really sitting here around the plus or minus one percent range: a firm roblox, palantir upwork, these guys all sitting around one percent. Let's take a look at tesla here: yeah tesla about uh, half a percent and so we'll see. I think a big thing for tesla is really breaking out of some of these. These pain trends that we've had here and uh if we can really stay above the 880.

That's that's quite critical, but these are these: are nasty downward trends, uh and and there's room for for the pain to end here absolutely same thing with matterport, my goodness, look at how the volume on matterport has exploded, but you know it sometimes makes sense, as price Goes down, volume goes up because the shares are cheaper, but still i mean that's it's a lot. I mean your double triple the value here or double triple the volume here. So, okay, let's see what else we have to cover today. I can't wait to go red halfway through the day.

You know uh lately the last uh, three or four weeks a lot of what we've seen it has actually been uh volatility, the first like three hours of the day where you know if we're gon na go red. Sometimes we end up going red the first three hours of the day, but though ending up uh ending up green towards the end of the day, which which is good uh. We want that feeling of against stability uh, really that that feeling's, probably not going to go away until there's some kind of real catalyst to the downside, whether that's uh hawkish comments again from jaypal on march 16th, yeah, which probably won't start really getting yeah. I don't think the market will really start getting nervous about j-pal until like a week before it usually doesn't uh and then, of course, what happens with inflation, oh yeah, and then there was also talk about ford, potentially cutting some of their production to because of chip Shortages, so really reiterating again just continued pain with uh with these supply chains.

Uh at this point, that's just it feels like old news, though, and we hear this over and over again all right. Let's see with what the brits are saying good morning, toronto macron flies to moscow for talks with putin to ease tension over ukraine. Oh wow, french president handing over let's see here so we talked about okay, uh frontier. We didn't talk about spotify, not canceling joe rogan, but that's what they said.

They would not cancel joe rogan. The cancel culture is also kind of crazy, but anyway uh there's not. I mean beyond a lot of the things that we've covered, there's not too terribly much. Let's see crypto platforms, fear scc's new rule on exchanges.

Oh, let's take a look at this. I believe this is the uh know your know your customer rules, but let's get logged in here and we'll find out okey-dokey. Let's take a look at the financial times, maybe not yeah! All right. Give me a second here.

You know what we'll hop on over here for a second and we'll just listen in while i try to get logged in, because apparently, logging in is hard to talk about this morning. Morgan stanley on snowflake uh, one of uh taiwan semi, got a street high of bank of america we'll get to all of that and the opening. Oh, that's why snowflake's moving okay, as we saw earlier in the live stream, we saw snowflake moving and i'm like huh. That's usually a sign of some risk on appetite to see snowflake move with the valuation that it has and if, if they got an upgrade then then that makes sense why you might see some of this.

I i really think upgrades are kind of funny upgrades and downgrades it's almost like when stocks are falling, everything gets downgraded and when stocks are, you know, start going up again. Everything starts getting upgraded, it's like well what what is the point, then, of your stupid price targets and and your nonsense, upgrades and downgrades it's just. It seems like they're, more reactive than anything or whatever all right. We get about seven minutes to go before the market.

Open and let's take a peek over here, cryptocurrency platforms fear they are about to face tighter regulatory scrutiny after the sec proposed new rules that could bring more digital asset exchanges under its purview. The amended rules seek to fill a regulatory gap by making platforms sitting outside the sec supervision comply with existing standards intended to protect investors. The new 654-page guidance, backed by the sec in a vote last month, does not explicitly refer to digital asset exchanges, but the crypto and legal, but crypto sector and legal experts believe the industry could fall under an expanded sec definition of an exchange which officials have said Is aimed at capturing uh platforms trading securities that fall outside the agency's scope, so basically, without mentioning there's a concern of of this larger regulatory regime applying to crypto exchanges, but i don't. I also don't know why that would be so terrible uh.

I guess it's probably a continued lack of clarity, yeah that that would be my guess, see one of the things that sucks right now is. We have so many different agencies that could potentially regulate crypto, and nobody really knows like who who's the leader in this regulatory space uh, you know what do you do with d5? What about miners right? It's it's! I think, honestly, a lot of it has to do with the fact that our government's quite clueless uh, let's see trade group whose membership includes ftx, hey. That's our sponsor for today's video, which of course use the links down below to sign up for ftx uh wrote in a public comment that amendments could expand the sec oversight of the crypto exchanges and decentralized networks in a way not publicly mentioned or discussed by the All right, this is a bunch of lack of clarity, which honestly has has been. The definition of regulation for crypto has just been confusion.

Lack of clarity, so oh well, uh at some point, that'll get fixed, fed and ecb still oh well here. This is, this is probably your biggest bear when it comes to uh inflation uh this guy right here, oh look at him. They got a little little transparency for him, this guy mohammed. He is always always like complaining like him.

Talking about the fed being behind on inflation is, is, like you know, i don't know, calling the pope catholic - it's just like it's so obvious at this point uh, but let's see what his rationale here is of of any particular complaint, all right, hawkish pivot. We did see that pivot over on at the ecb, which it's funny you know. I i made this video this weekend and i'm, like you, know, jerome powell's pivot. After politically meeting uh with biden was just such a shocker, and it's like really like you can pivot.

Your whole position, like seven days or whatever after getting confronted by joe biden, seems like there's some political influence there, which of course that led some people in the comments to say: oh well, you pivoted too, and then i'm kind of like you realize i pivoted, because Jerome pivoted right, so it's kind of disingenuous to make the comparison. Since, since i i'm reacting to uh the fed, because while history tell us, tells us that you know the fed is what moves markets, but anyway, um yeah. I mean we saw this pivot over at the ecb as well, which we weren't expecting when jerome powell pivoted the ecb and christine legate, who used to be the head of the international monetary fund. Now head of the european central bank, she she's like hey yeah.

We might have to flip too something kind of interesting, but anyway, this mohammed guy he's constantly railing on inflation uh, and i don't know that. There's anything he's really saying here that we haven't heard of before or talked about before, so i certainly haven't seen any kind of new data or something, although i did just give that a quick little skin uh, let's see here. This is good bond market signals, room for fed to raise rates without stalling economy, and this is critical right. The last thing you want to solve the economy.

I think the economy is actually doing very well. Kathy wood had a little bit more of a bearish outlook. Uh, which, if you haven't watched my kathy wood, video, yet i'd, encourage watching it because there's some things that kathy said that that, in my opinion, really stand in the face to what facts actually are, which that of course led to you know: people like oh kathy's, Older than you, so she must know more. It's like okay, all right yeah, let's, let's use logical fallacies to debate fact right.

But then again you can't expect much more from the comment section, because this is what people apparently do for their lives complain on. In the comments section of twitter and youtube without logic or reason, but whatever uh us government bond market is signaling, the federal reserve will be able to tame inflation in the coming years. Without stopping. This could be because of the break-even rates because they have been relatively stable, but let's see what they're saying treasury yield jumped last week after a much stronger than expected jobs report investors bet strengthened labor market would give the fed further impetus to titan.

This is true. Despite these upbeat figures, which pointed to rising wage pressures, expectations for future inflation, barely budged. This is true so expectations for future. There we go longer term break-even rates exactly so uh, and - and this is actually one of the concerns that i have is uh.

The the break-even rates are not pricing in a the fact that the fed could potentially misstep and make a mistake, and that's a sign that when, when i i hear so many people, especially on youtube they're like oh, it's already priced in it's already priced in. What's not priced in is inflation getting worse, while the fed is hiking that is not priced in at all. The market is pricing in a soft landing. The market is pricing in that everything is going to be fine, that uh that essentially, inflation is going to come down as supply chains, repair themselves.

Inflation will come down over the next year or two and uh and any kind of actions by the fed, even though they have a substantial lag, will will end up not overly tightening the economy, uh, fine, but uh. You know if there's any kind of misstep in in that soft landing that has not been priced in uh and - and i think that's that's very useful - to consider uh any so anytime. You hear. Oh, it's been priced in.

No perfection has been priced in anyway uh. Hopefully that ends up being the case. So uh s p up about .14 uh. Here at the open, that's interesting.

I thought it was up much more. We get about 15 seconds to go here. You know okay, so it just, it really just seems like low vol, but let's go ahead and listen to the bell. Here's the opening bell here for the cbc real-time exchange of the big board.

It is anheuser-busch looking ahead to this weekend's super bowl on nbc. Of course, this sunday at the nasdaq synaptics a developer of human interface hardware and software celebrating its 20th listing anniversary speaking of softbank um uber, will be a name for uh later in the weekend and okay, that's like 70 green, that's nice andrew! No! I don't want detailed arguments in 200, characters or less you know i think what's moronic is is when people are like. Oh somebody knows more than you because of their age. Well, that doesn't mean that they've done any kind of study to what's potentially happening age.

Does not mean anything i think ages is the most ridiculous, uh uh argument that people can make, especially if somebody's like person a said one thing person b countered what person a said with facts, arguments and reason, and then person c comes in and says: oh well, Person a must be right because they're older, it's like wait. What what kind of response is that to the facts and data? You don't need more than 200 characters to go hey. This is why i think you're wrong. Take a look at this piece of evidence.

Come on man, that's like 80 characters, all right uh, so it does look like the indices. At least here at the open are dragging down a little bit. This is not uncommon because we we generally face what we've been talking about as as convictionless rallies uh. So we see a firm was up about a percent here in the pre-market heading down a little bit here.

This is so common. It's the weekend's over we're going into inflation week, you're going to see, in my opinion, a lot of uh of profit-taking before the inflation print. Because again, the market is pricing in perfection and if we don't get perfection uh, then then i would expect that we'll see uh some pain but uh. Then again, the first minute or two tend to be the most red so we'll see if we can end up staying or going green here really.

I would expect probably the first three hours of the day to be a little nonsensical again and uh. Who knows maybe we'll get we'll close into the green again uh at the end of the day? Oh look at that. There comes a little pop back on the firm, a little buying pressure here there we go peloton coming right coming in to rise a little bit here and spear it the same there we go now we're getting that green. Come back good.

Let's see here, spy yeah yeah, i mean it's, it's technically a point. One percent here uh, so we got ta ignore the minute candle sticks there. For a moment there we go qqq coming back up a little bit, so first little cell orders got out of the way and now looks like pushing green a bit here, tesla about half percent matterport coming up about a percent anything really taking off and flying here. Oh well, dutch bros.

Again, of course you know dashboards is such an interesting one. Dutch pros really had never really sold off as much as a lot of other companies. It's really quite well held on dwack coming in here so is. Whack has been incredible, but uh dweck also have a nice little pop here at the open.

Let's look at here's coinbase and amc here we go uh lemonade, a couple percent on lemonade so far a couple percent as well so far, it's such a bargain, twelve dollars and sixteen cents and redfin twenty eight dollars. It's crazy, uh, etsy, 135. yeah. Looking at the downside, alibaba is still slipping to the lower side here so you're.

Seeing that continued pressure here on alibaba really moving from about that 116 now to just under 115., that's quite incredible uh would it go? It went down to like 108 right yeah yeah. I went down to 108 and uh now on this news that softbank potentially might be dumping their shares. We're we're definitely seeing that pressure coming to alibaba, but we're not seeing that really spread to a lot of other things. I mean loose it down.

Half percent big deal uh. You know: microsoft, apple paypal, these folks nominally moving dwack, of course, still moving spirit. Finally, moving a little bit more, it again should really probably get to uh 25.80, but then there's always a little bit of risk that well what if the deal doesn't go through right. Yeah things aren't perfect, with with merger pricing, uh cloudflare a little bit of a pop here boy.

Oh boy, cloudflare has been through one heck of a rollercoaster. You know tv cloudflare. They fell to like what 80 bucks or something like that. I mean it got so: darn, cheap and uh a nice nice little recovery coming back here, especially, i think one of the things that's bringing a lot of attention to cyber security has been the uh beijing olympics and uh.

I think one of the reasons that you're seeing it uh is because you're seeing this renewed talk about uh surveillance and using a vpn, uh and spying by china and all this kind of crazy stuff over in uh in china, and i think that's leading to this Renewed look at oh, my gosh. Well, maybe we should look into some cyber security companies and - and then you do that, and i mean, then you look at the stock price and it's like oh wow, that that seems a lot cheaper than what it used to sell. For you know, that's quite wild. So, quite quite wild all right, so uh, okay, piton, actually dropping a little bit here.

Look at this. It was up 28 to 30 percent now sitting at about 24 here, so a little bit of a rotation to the downside. It looks like uh dwack continues to move here, dwack up about 8.8 right now, so really a good little rally coming out of the open. Here yeah, then, we've got yeah fun, pushing up 18 19 here and then, of course, we've got the crypto related companies uh bobbing a little bit.

Btc is not moving much right now. So it's not a surprise to not see these move much, but if you are making bets that btc is going to make some moves. One of the nice thing about the miners is you can get options on them a lot more easily than you can get options on uh crypto, uh, coinbase. Three look at this: a firm all of a sudden popping yeah look at a firm run, yeah you're up about four percent.

Four point: three percent on a firm right now, so nice moves here, three percent on etsy uh you could! You could be seeing some enthusiasm as well and you get like more and more people like the jpm analysts we talked about earlier. Like oh, don't worry, it's all priced in time to buy stocks. It's like okay play your violin, but uh that that can definitely lead to uh some of these bounces. Sometimes they create opportunities for folks to sell, but that was mostly, it seemed like december and january.

The convictionless rallies i mean some prices are still pretty incredibly low. Tesla bobbing around 0.6. It also would not be a bad thing for the market to go back to a little bit more of a calm environment so like, for example, we go back to seeing like daily swings of a half percent on tesla uh, which is you know what nearly a Trillion dollar company that that is much more normal and healthy for the market than seeing these insane uh. You know 10 percent days to the downside and then upside and then seven percent to the down seven percent of the upside.

Is it it's quite wild? And i i think those are usually signatures of bear markets when you have these, this insane repricing of of fear, and then greed and fear and greed, very, very typical in bear markets not so common in in uh. In more euphoric times, we tend to have much more straight up, uh anyway, upstart, which is a big trading stock as well moving nicely here, uh upstart cloudflare, look at that cloudflare just keeps on moving right here. This is very, very nice, so cloudflare uh has been moving uh. You know for for the last.

What 10 minutes here eight minutes uh so is upstart, uh spirit airlines. Finally, again pushing back up to that level here, even piton recovering back up now here comes sofi. Three percent good is anything really falling to the downside. Let's see here not much, i mean we talked about alibaba spotify on 2.75 snapchat, 1.3 snaps sitting out.

What are we sitting now with snapchat 38 bucks? That's not bad! I think that puts it to like monday of last week's pricing, which is kind of wild because of what we went through last week. But if i go to the the day chart here, oh no, we're above so we're we're back at 38 44 that puts us somewhere over here at about a january 13th pricing. So that's about you know a good little three weeks that got recovered there. That's quite good, so definitely some enthusiasm here, yeah huh, mostly green, very, very green i'd, say much of the market is green.

Today, uh the indices should be rising. Then no spy's not really moving. Here. It's really getting stuck at that uh.

That 450 level, which um, which is not uncommon, because we do have that retracement, the 50 retracement here creating a little bit of a lid for it uh we did run up to the 61.8 line, but but quickly came back down. Let's try uh qqq and i want to see also what google is up to here. Okay, so qqq doing the best, so tech is really coming back uh a little bit more today. So i think that might be.

Why you're not seeing the spy move as much today, but but this is a very nice trend that you're seeing here on on uh qqq nasdaq. Oh, look at that tesla now, 1.5, very nice, and if we go to where's google because remember google's got that stock split coming up yeah google's at 28.71. You know a lot of that. Euphoria has kind of gone away from that stock, split, which you saw right here, uh and so you've had you've got this consolidating uh period here, but uh yeah well, keeping an eye on google, i think, is very valuable.

It's a phenomenal company. I think no matter what happens the the big companies like um uh, google apple tesla, these companies again, no matter what happens in the market recession or not. These are gon na be the killers. Now these are gon na, be the absolutely incredible movers and shakers uh.

So it's very exciting: okay, redfin four percent. Look at a good day here. Uh see look at that a firm six percent uh spot yeah; no, not much pain. Okay, let's let me see what the suits are saying: let's go take a peek all right: em live! Okay, let's see sovereign debts.

Oh, let's see here consumer goods companies keep showing they can boost, how much they can charge. Customers who don't seem stretched to pay up. That's easing margin, worries and lifting share prices for some of the biggest u.s companies. This makes sense: if companies say they have pricing power, that's good.

That means margins can go up, not so good for inflation, one of the top s p, 500 gainers ahead of the bell - was tyson food which, which is raising prices as it grapples with the tight. Later labor market and smaller livestock herbs, beef prices jumped 32 in the quarter with chicken up 20 and poor cup 13. Recent data showed that american cattle uh uh shrank more than expected and consumers are expected to face more sticker shock. Amazon, hiked prices kimberly clark, race prices right.

We saw that and there's yeah wow. Okay. So that's why tyson's doing well, yeah it's an interesting thing: let's take a look at their stock yeah! It's quite interesting to watch these companies raise prices so much and brag about how much they can raise prices because it really does signal uh, quite the inflationary concerns, so they reported and as a result of their reporting they're up about nine percent, my goodness uh they Have just been killing it by the way i mean look, look at this stock movement here they have seen virtually no pain in in the last two three months where there has been pain elsewhere and and they are just zooming to record highs now you know we Did a did a deep dive on tyson? Oh gosh, i don't know maybe three four months ago, and it was really incredible just about how much they brag about how they could raise their prices and apparently they're still doing it, and the stock is really rewarding. That right now look at these moves, though, look at this cloudflare now up eight percent.

You got a firm up. Seven percent nice moves here, even redfin roadblocks, these guys four five percent today uh sulfite 3.6 lemonade uh shift technologies still not seeing that small cap revolution, though the small caps really lagging behind, and i think that's that's uh sort of reiterating that that somewhat a risk-off Sentiment, uh tesla is even up to about two percent right now: 9 41.. Look at that chart for today. That's really nice and, of course, okay.

Good. Let me see a little bit more. What the suits are saying good moves, so all right, let's see here and then let's also get a quick little look at btc and then we'll see what else is being talked about. Oh look at btc here on ftx uh.

Let me give it a little refresh there sitting at 43.81 right now. Look at that move. You know it's funny how btc really likes to get volume, spikes and move right around the bell. Uh look at this here's, the bell: 6.

30. We had the first few minutes of tentativeness. Then you started seeing text start moving right. We started seeing uh a positivity like a firm was flat.

A firm was pre-market up, two percent went flat at the bell. You saw that tentativeness around the bell and then you started seeing a firm go. That's we're going! The moon, you see it go up like six, seven percent, you see tesla go up two percent, you see snowflake up five percent uh it, and so you see really some of this risk on in larger companies. I'd, say: mid caps and large caps, small caps.

Still being left behind, but that leading now to more enthusiasm here at btc, going from about 43 to uh to to about forty three three so up about three four hundred bucks here, nice move uh. Obviously one minute candles here, but really nice moves so we'll keep an eye on this yeah. The tyson here. Absolutely look at this cloudflare i mean we've been watching them all morning here and uh.

You know we saw them up about four percent now they're up about nine point: five percent, really incredible! Okay, let's see here what else is okay, so we talked about margins, oh bfa, oh, this is interesting. What is this bank of america's consumer clients made 335 billion of total payments in january up 17 from a year earlier? Oh my gosh uh second highest month of spending on record. This is insane the amount of money people are spending right now is just insane it's! It's like it should be. You would think this should be very good for the stock market, but the economy is crushing it.

This is why, when people are like, oh the economy's not doing well, i'm like what are you, what are you? Smoking like the economy is doing really really well. You know there are longer-term concerns about the fed and inflation and and that's that's potentially a conversation for a different cycle right but uh, but in terms of the economy. Right now, like the snapshot of the economy. Right now is phenomenal uh.

You know it's like kathy wood this weekend, saying that oh uh uh consumers are doing terribly right now, consumer spending just isn't doing as well and and even facebook's complaining about how weak the consumers are. Uh - and i remember saying my video i'm like kathy what what are you smoking, like the consumers, are doing great and facebook did not complain about uh. Where was that i have the document yeah facebook did not complain about a weak consumer at all. Uh facebook complained about supply, chain issues and uh and labor disruptions not about a weak consumer at all.

This is the document that i showed there oops it's doing that uh there we go starting a little hdmi cable, but that was just mind-blowing to me. It's like just not having a weak economy right now, it's very good good right now. Consumers spending on credit and debit cards increased 16 from a year earlier. Oh my gosh, i mean this spending is insane.

It doesn't stop a sign that consumers willingness to book future travel plans are up bank of america. Consumer clients continue their strong payment trends into january following the record levels of 2021. That's going to lead to more price hikes, these trends vote and everybody is booking everything out. I mean you try to travel right now.

Hotels are getting booked out like crazy travel's getting booked out like crazy everybody's blowing, all their money. It's quite wild uh bank of america, consumers, strong payment trends into january and checking and savings deposits we're up 15 from a year earlier. These trends bode well for the economy as we move further into 2022. Yep spending on credit cards grew 28 from a year earlier.

Air travel grew 160 from a year earlier, among consumers with an average deposit balance of less than 2 000 before the pandemic balances were up about one percent in january from the previous month, five times their pre-covet levels, wow one percent per month, credit and debit card Spending in the higher income tax brackets was up 23 from a year ago, and payment activity by cash and checks was down about seven percent as clients continue to transition to digital. That's a good thing wow. That is that's a really bullish, uh bullish, um. What's it called stat here, biden, retools economic to doodle list, as inflation overshadows okay? Well, i i am tired of hearing that joe biden is, is retooling.

His plans do something it just feels like there's just a lot of talk. I don't know, maybe i'm wrong uh. Let's see credit credit costs soar as investors, brace for end of ultra cheap cash yeah. I believe that i wouldn't be surprised if we see uh interest rates, start bumping a lot on things driving demand up ooh.

Let's take a look jet demand down, really whose jet demand is down, because travel has been crazy. Uh oil prices for the trend ahead or the week ahead. High frequency data for global oil inventory suggests that the stockpile deficit against seasonal averages has widened to a near post-pandemic record. Stockpile deficit has widened okay, so so lack of okay, but where did they say this jet demand thing? That's quite interesting.

I always like looking at this. I don't see it yeah, never mind, i don't know if they mean private or public, but whatever okay, what else we have here? We have shift towards evs an opportunity for taiwanese forums. I think it's an opportunity for everyone. We think about it, meadow renews its warning to the eu all right.

We talked about that earlier. I still don't know why they named it meta. I guess because many people don't like facebook uh oh later today, by the way i'll be doing an interview with peter schiff. That should be really interesting.

I've talked to him in a very long time. We kind of already know what his stance on things is, but it's been a while. Okay, let's go take a look at markets, okay, so cloudflare chillaxing a little bit here i mean it's had it it's had. This insane run out of the gate.

So who cares? If it has a little brief moment here uh, what do we got here? The spy has been pretty much flat and, let's see here, people are spending their mortgage forbearance money, mine ends in july. I have a bunch of money to spend yeah. I i really do believe that that people have a lot of money right now to spend, and this is actually leading to quite a strong consumer and strong economy again. Why i was so shocked that kathy wood is like oh, the the consumer's weak right now the economy is falling like i don't see that anywhere, uh and again like.

I just think that a firm with hundreds of millions of dollars for for their company and fees should have quite accurate research, but some of the stuff was just blatantly wrong. Anyway, a firm is freaking killing it right now, as it leads into earnings. Look at this. I mean a firm up.

Uh 8.22 percent right now took a brief little breather here, but uh only to to continue the rally right now so really nice move here i mean even palantir. Look at that four percent. Today, nice little rally here lemonade coming up yeah that one usually gets left behind it's at 30 right now. Trade deaths coming back good, coming back to life here.

Finally, let's see tesla was up two percent. We last checked yeah. It's up 2.18 right now same thing, brief little pause here and a little bit of a push coming again and uh. I think it's a qq oops, the qqq is really what's driving, so tech stocks is really driving the narrative today.

Yeah. Look at that same little. Look here, the rally, the pause, the push, that's good, a little test, but the small caps. What's up with these look at this corsair stuck in the mud, er moving about one percent here shift technology moving about two percent here, the the short squeeze that just never comes in the small caps.

It's really a flight to to the perception of safety in mid caps that we're seeing uh cloudflare firm. These guys mid caps, look at tyson now up 10 wild dutch bros, of course, just continues to rocket all right. Let's see uh here's uh btc on ftx, also against really bouncing wanting to bounce a lot off of that a 43 4 level. This is the second time now we're bouncing off of 43 4..

Let's get into bloomberg, okay uh by the way, uh we're gon na. Also do some trading uh, i think uh, probably starting either at the close today or or more likely tomorrow morning, and so we're going to do. Some earnings plays this week with some fun options, whether we're going to do straddles or whatever, which, if you want to learn about those we'll talk more about them in the course member live. There's a v-day coupon down below for valentine's day.

So you're welcome to check that out. Okay, so we talked about jpm, we talked about frontier talked about. Biden talked about. A lot of this cuomo feels vindicated.

Okay, that's that's an interesting one talked about tesla, that's a funny title adults back in charge of stock market. As fed awakens big money, tesla's caves, uh, okay, more evs, coming to japan. Good all right again talked about frontier talked about peloton. I think we've probably covered.

Let's go to f and face okay or uh financial times. I saw somebody else write about the end phase. Let me go to financial times here: no, nothing new! Here, okay, how about wall street journal so quick little check? Oh and then what we should also do is. I do want to take a quick peek at oil.

Oh, how is the dow slightly red yeah? Look at the nasdaq pushing one percent here, that's really good uh! I do want to zoom out on the qqq here for a moment, because tech is really killing it today. This is today's a good rally day for tech. Let's see here, let's zoom out to the day chart yeah i mean here's here is your tech. I mean you're under you're, still under the 200-day moving average on the qqq, which is really quite remarkable uh.

This is this is historically an incredible time to buy. Unless, of course, you you have fears of some kind of larger cyclical shift, the this i mean sitting on the 200-day moving average on the qq is unbelievable anyway, tesla right here about 2.26 right now, even amazon's up a couple percent, and then, of course, we got The runners like uh cloudflare, affirm uh upstart, toast etsy about four and a half trade desk phenomenal company, especially if we get that advertising push this year, we'll see. Okay, let's go to oil uh brent, actually, down a little bit. Both oil is down slightly here.

You've got wti down to about 91 and then 92.6 oil falls on positive signals from u.s. Iran docks, oh well, that's good! Okay and yeah btc kind of stuck in the same spot here trying to break oh. No. There we go just got a little update there on the one minute, candle and sitting at 43 438 right now.

Let's see if we can fully break above that, so we'll be watching that i think that'll be bullish, we'll see what happens a lot of bouncing here. Uh, okay, good anything else. Oh pounds here hit five percent just now by the way dude whack, uh, dwight. Kids, look at that chart for today.

Oh my gosh. Do i kiss 11 today tyson food breaking uh 10.6? Oh my gosh uh clown flares! Almost up to that 10 percent level, it's a big move on the day, uh a firm here, eight percent there's pounds here where is it somewhere here anyway? I found here. I had a rough rough week last week, i believe uh. Let me look at their day.

Chart here, yeah palutear right now is sitting at about 1360 fell to about 11.75 and we are getting those those higher lows. That's a nice trend here to see sort of potentially uh. You know it's it's! You know. You never necessarily want to say bottom, because we've we've trying to been we've been trying to find bottom since december, and things have kind of continued to hit new lows, but we really haven't since about that.

Third week here of uh january, things have been somewhat flat on the the pain side yeah if anything's slowly, starting to rise off of these lower levels, which is good, uh, rivien 63.. Look at that went down to 50 bucks, wild okay, downside baba biggest one, but it's kind of stabilizing here, netflix dropping one point: three percent: really: no, no negativity, negative, no negativity! Today, there we go there's the word uh very, very good, start to uh an inflationary, an inflation read week. Yeah it'll be interesting to see if uh, if, if we get any kind of like crazy volatile day before best case scenario, we just have stable days going into inflation and i think that'll lead to the best resilience going to inflation. Last thing we want are these things that we saw last week where you had these insane, like 10 swings to one direction or the other.

It was quite wild all right time to go. Make some more coffee, let's see oh arc, almost four percent. Is that true, let's see arc yeah three and a half here, yeah probably was almost up uh four and then so fast here about three: it's not bad. Okay, i'm going to look one more time at what the suits are saying.

Let's see what the suits are saying: uh real returns matter for the first time in decades, lol yeah, that's uh; no, nothing here! Okay, so that's been stable. Nothing's really changed. Some commentary here on ottawa protests out of control wafers. What's this global wafers? Oh okay, this is a merger and acquisition.

I thought maybe they're going to tell us something else: u.s and japan set to announce pact to end trump-era seal tariffs. Oh that's good! Usually some some moves on uh or on on removing uh tariffs uh getting to a little bit more of a free market. I i think is, is a wonderful thing, all right, so somebody's talking, oh yeah, she's, moving you're right! Look at this! Here's shiban on ftx sitting about 3 000 right now, really up nicely from about that 2100. We had earlier look at these moves here.

She was really really getting some enthusiasm right now, uh. If i i'm going to zoom out here a little bit, let's go to uh, let's go to the one hour, candlestick yeah! Oh, look at those moves, my goodness! We were 2 000. Not that long ago, nice rally here uh on uh about yesterday. Actually, yesterday, really nice rally that took us from about 2300 to about 2 800 and now looks like we're getting another little push here, breaking above uh the previous rejection here, not bad, not bad, wow, good job, sheep, all right! One more look here: piton chillaxing a little bit, yeah people just don't love peloton.

It's just hard, tesla's funny, yeah, some nonsense. Okay, so the firm is still pushing those green candlesticks still hitting highs here, just even just a minute ago, on the day here so uh. It's been trending up nicely, of course, as soon as you say that it ends up turning red but uh, even matterport, here, yeah and you're not really seeing an additional set of pain. It's not like you're, seeing a bunch of stocks start running over into the red range, so it's a it's a good day.

Uh yeah google's google's just not doing anything. It's you know. Google is one of those that's just almost impossible to move, though, like wall street bets was trying to move it and they were really only able to move it in the pre-market and i'm like don't buy in the pre-market, and the thing ran to like 3060 or Something crazy and uh. You know that's under 2500, yen under 2, 900 again there we go say that clearly kevin uh.

Okay. What do we got here? Tesla yeah, okay, a little bit of softening here, but you get this throughout the day i mean this is just normal fluctuation crap.