Hey hey: what's up my friends, so welcome back to this month's price action analysis, where i share with you the best trending markets that i'm seeing in the markets right now, so we cover stocks. We cover forex commodities and whatnot. So, let's kick off right with the stock market because that's where i'm seeing the action lies right now. So if you look at the s p 500 recently right, we have a pullback, a relatively steep pullback right from 4800 down to about the low of 4200.

So if you look - or rather if you do the math right, then it's about a 15 decline, i'm just i'm just calculating at the top of my head about a 15 decline and if you look back historically on the s p, 500 pullbacks is perfectly right. Normal right in the stock market or any market, because you need pullback right for the trend to sustain itself, you know whether the wick holders they get. You know, uh washed out new buyers to come in the train, continue itself and the cycle rings repeat itself. So a trend right, it's only sustained sustainable when there is, you know app and flow in the market when there is a pullback, a continuation of the move or pull back etc.

So if you look back right historically with this, you know pull back here, pull back here, pull back here, pull back pull back, pull back, i'm just kind of like drawing the obvious one, i'm seeing over here here here and the more recent ones over here. So when you are trading stocks right, it's uh perfectly sound right to have pullback. You know anywhere between 10 to 20 or even 30, pullback right, it's normal right, but what i would say abnormal if you have a pullback that is uh larger than 30. You know 40 50 and probably we are in a bear market in a recession, and that's where you want to you know, shift your your uh buyers from bullish to bearish.

So that's uh. One thing to share another thing to add is so it's very important right to have a line, or rather an area on the chart where you tell yourself if the price, if the market breaks below that level right, you will stop being bullish, you will stop buying Stocks instead, you would rather want to remain in cash. So, for me that level right now on this chart is around the 4200 price point: okay, so if the price, or if the smp 500 breaks and close below this area of support, if it comes down lower breaks, close below it right, i will stop being bullish. I will stop buying stocks, okay and whatever positions i have for running whatever cash i have i'll just let it remain in cash.

I will stop buying stocks so until that level is broken right uh i will still remain bullish in the stock market and, of course, all right, like all traders out there right, i have my share of losses as well. When this stock market came down lower this pullback, i got stopped out on a number of positions, and i want to share them with you right now, because that is kind of like the reality of trading. There's no way of not uh having losses in the stock market, so let me share with you one which i i already took i'll share with you this one first, this one i spoke about last uh, i think, on the previous month's market analysis. I said i was bullish on this stock called marvel technologies right.

You can see that this trend is in a nice uptrend price. Coming towards this area of support with a nice bullish price rejection, i got long on the next candle right so on this next candle. I got long okay, then i had my first target right just before this swing high right, but of course, before the price can reach my target. What happened is that this stock pretty much collapsed down lower, so i got a loss i got hit on this loss right when the overall stock market correct.

So again, i'm not spared. I have losses myself as well. Another trade that i also had a loss is asana, okay, just to walk you through. So this one over here i had a entry trigger right to go along when this uh stock right was uh forming this bull flag pattern in this upgrade.

So you can see this stock is in an uptrend it from a nice blue flag, break and close above it. I went long and i had a trailing stop-loss. I was looking to ride this long-term uptrend higher and again what happened is again uh again i pretty much caught the top right. I bought right at the highest before the stock.

Uh collapsed down, lower and hit my trailing stop-loss so again, uh. I have losses myself. I don't hide it right. I just want to share with you that you know as a trader right, no matter how many years you've been trading right.

You will still see losses right when the especially when you trade stocks and the overall stock market makes a pullback. You will almost, i won't say, guarantee right, but you are very likely to see losses on across the board as well. Okay, so those are a few things to share with you so moving on right, uh opportunities that i'm seeing right now. So there are a few opportunities in the oil sector.

So if you look at the just i'll just share with you the oil sector, we can look at the brand crude oil. You can see that it's pretty much a very nice uh uptrend right since i think the last one year so ever since the price went negative in the futures market for wti. This is the brand crude oil by the way, right ever since the wti went negative for the futures market, the oil market, if you don't know, i'm talking about never mind right, just just know that the oil market over the last couple of years, very nice bullish, Uptrend and this right translate right to individual oil stocks, which are also in an uptrend, so a few oil stocks which are, i would say, worth keeping a lookout. Let me just walk you through first one is cop concoct philips hold on i'm a cop right.

This concoct phillips right, so there this is the oil company, so you can see that oh, this is similar. The price section of this is similar to the oil uh market, which i shared with you a little brand crude oil or wtr. They look similar because this is an oil stock. So if you want to look for opportunities right buying opportunities in this stock right, you can see this stock is in an uptrend uh.

Why i picked this. One is also because this stock right had a positive earnings right over the last few quarters. You can see bits earning expectation here here here here and you kind of get my point. It's a nice up trend great.

So next question is: where can we look for buying opportunities? Where is the area of value and from what i'm seeing over here i would say this is an let's try: the 50ma okay, so 50ma uh yeah price slicing a little bit this one, not too relevant. So say this one over here right: it's an aerial valley worth keeping a lookout around the 80 dollar price point slightly below the 80. So you can see the this is the swing high price we tested it once over here, possibly if oil makes a pullback right. This would be the area i'm looking for for bullish price rejection right to get an opportunity opportunity to go along on this stock.

So, looking something like a hammer right, let's say that's a entry trigger to go long, so you can look to enter on the next day. Open, stop loss would go a distance below this low somewhere about here uh. If you're looking to capture that one swing up higher, i would say possible target could be just below before the 92 dollar price point, so your risk to reward would be something like from here right. This would be your your reward.

Re then, from here right to here right, would be your risk, so from a risk to reward standpoint, i would say risking a dollar to possibly make a dollar fifty cents or more somewhere along those lines. I do not have the exact figures, because i i did not use the tool to measure the risk to reward but they're about there, assuming that this is the entry trigger we have assuming the entry stops in target, which i've just shared with you. So this is a concord, philips stock to keep a lookout. Another oil stock is mro marathon oil corporation.

So you can see it's very similar to uh concoct phillips very similar to the oil market. I shared with you. If i show you uh, wti. Okay, let's go to futures oil futures, you can see they look, they are, i would say they look similar right, not exactly noted for that, but yeah similar so anyway, back to mro marathon oil, futures yep.

So again, i'm bullish on this stock. This setup is very similar to uh concord philips, so i don't think we need to. You know, talk too much about it, but the key level i will be looking for is around the 17 price point all right. If the market, if this stock does make a pullback towards this area of value, looking for bullish price rejection is here to occur before i look for a long setup to get long on this particular stock.

Okay, so a few more to share right, uh next one right: let's talk about breakout right, so this one here is a morgan stanley. This is not oil. This is a bank okay, so you can see that morgan stanley, if i just zoom out a little bit, let's go to a weekly time frame. Why i like this is that if you look at the weekly timeframe, this stock right is trading near all-time highs.

This is all-time high. I said around 106 dollars, so uh stocks without which are trading at near all-time highs, is bullish, because this tells you that uh, the stock is strong right. So this is why it's trading at all times, if a stroke is stock, that's not strong. It's not fundamentally sound is probably at all time lows or just you know, chopping up in the middle of nowhere, so technically right, uh, whenever stock is near all-time highs, i get.

I love right to pay attention to it. Okay, so again uh, you can see this stock over here. If you look at the weekly, we see uh, depending which time frame you trade on. I personally, i rather look at the daily time frame.

You can see that right now, it's making this consolidation of this rectangle over here, okay, so a simple way to to trade. The the uh this stock, sorry, is to simply look to trade, the breakout of this uh, this resistance. Okay. So if the stock hit higher towards this area of resistance and it breaks and close above it right, you can look to enter to buy right and to write the trend up higher.

So if you are looking to write this long-term uptrend, it doesn't make sense to have like a trillion stop-loss of let's say five percent or maybe ten percent. You will very obviously you will have a good chance of getting stopped up, because you know, if you look at this stock right, it swings uh. It swings up and down right, so you can from here it swings from 100 and like 106 dollars down to 92 dollars. That is like how much is that that is like uh.

I don't know about ten percent 106 minus ten dollars in 96, so about 15 decline. Okay over here. So if your trading stop loss is like five percent ten percent, you are very likely to get. You know stopped out of this trade, so you know if you want to write the long term.

Uptrend of this stock have a wider trailing stop loss. I like to use a volatility uh to trail my stop loss or one ways you can use the average true range indicator. This indicator is called the chandelier crosstalk. It takes into account the volatility of this stock and then it adds a multiple to it.

So, in this case, it's actually a 8 atr trailing stop loss. The multiple is eight okay, so it's something you could consider if it is too wide for you, you can reduce down to five six. You know it's up to your preference, but for me i like to go with uh eight eight right. So if i do catch the trend, okay, you can see that i would possibly hold on to this stock for quite a while all right and i'm fine with it, because i like to just hold stocks, not do anything and kind of like get paid right for Being on the right side of the trade, so that's my my style, okay.

So this is a morgan stanley, a potential breakout on this stock. Another one is our al koa corporation. Okay, you can see again this one here. This stock is bullish as well.

If you look at the weekly time frame, you know this one here, it's uh not near all-time highs, but multi-year highs. Okay, all-time highs was probably back in uh, 2007.. Okay, so right now we're near multi-year highs around 65. This stock uh is recovering.

I would say on the path to recovery from its all-time highs right, so now it's on the path to recovery. So, right now you can see that this stock right is still uh right. Now it's consolidating over here, okay and then possibly about to stage a breakout of this high. So again a couple of ways: you can look to trade this, so if we do get a pullback, this would be the level that you want to pay attention to around.

Here right, there's a pullback towards this swing. Low, okay stock would come up and then reverse and give you a possible setup right at this around this 55 level. So you can look for a bullish entry trigger again something like a hammer, a bullish, engulfing pattern. If there is that could be an entry trigger for you to to get long.

Otherwise, right you could, for those of you who are comfortable trading breakouts or i can look to trade, the breakout right of this high, so right a break off this high. Sorry, i'm breaking close above it and again uh trailing stop loss. I prefer to go with like a a wider. Trailing stop-loss in terms of percentage will be around i'll, say i'll, say eight atr trailing stop-loss.

That's what i've shared earlier. Okay, this this indicator here. Okay, so so, if the price - let's say just a hypothetical scenario - let's say the price does break out out of this highs. Okay, and you get long and the price continues up higher.

This blue line right will continue to go up higher as well, so you'll come to a point where, finally, the price comes down lower and break and close below this uh chandelier crosstalk. So this means that the price has uh hit your trailing, stop loss and it's time to exit the trade. So that's kind of like your signal to get out right when the trend is starting to reverse okay, so anyway, that's a pretty much it for me. If you enjoy such a market analysis, you know you want to get such a trending trading opportunities on a weekly basis.

You can check out our pro traders age. This is a membership that i offer where i share with you, a detailed breakdown of the markets, i'm looking at each week and every setup that i share right, i would say almost all of them are trending markets. We look at stocks, we look at forex commodities and whatnot. So again you can just just check out uh pro traders i'll put the link somewhere below this video right have a look at it.

If it's, if it's something that interests you but that's it, i wish you good luck. Good trading! I will talk to you soon.