Welcome back everyone to another market, open, live stream. Today we are talking about jobs which the jobs report comes out in about two minutes and 30 seconds. We will have the jobs report, current expectations for the jobs report, which we can compare expectations to reality, expectations or that we are going to get 125 a thousand jobs. We could end up with a negative report, which means a loss of jobs and the expectation is 125 000 and remember.

This survey was taken relatively during peak omicron. Usually, a survey is done between the second and third week of january, so at higher levels of omicron, especially like new york and other areas, uh we've got average hourly. Earnings are expected to go up 0.5. This is probably going to be the most important number.

Last month they went up. 0.6 0.5 is an annualized rate of 6 wage inflation, average hourly earnings year-over-year. Comparing this uh a month to uh last year january, are expected to come in at 5.2 percent. The labor force participation rate is coming in at 60 or is expected to come in at 61.9.

If the labor force participation rate goes up. That is a good sign. If the uh month over month or year-over-year, inflation numbers for wages go down. That is a good sign payroll, whether it comes in negative or way larger than expected.

Uh, it probably doesn't matter the market's, probably not going to be happy with any result, uh the market's probably going to be more interested in what ends up happening with uh the that inflation number uh, that inflation number is going to be much more critical, so uh, We'll see uh it's supposed to come out about uh, let's see here, 20 uh about 45 seconds or so so uh we'll go ahead and be on standby. For this uh it does look like the market is a little bit softening just before this future's down. Just a tiny little bit from some of the highs that we saw uh yeah, but that's okay, we'll talk about those in just a moment, we'll see how the market's reacting all right. Okay, we got about 15 seconds now.

It is possible also that cnbc has this embargoed, so i'm going to uh have them up over here as well, and, let's listen in while we wait see what it is. The government has been trying to take us out. Trump helped us stay alive in poland and recently the biden administration. We were this close at the end of the year and we were fighting really for the for the people of poland to be able to provide a fair and balanced news service.

So you know in from from oh, my gosh payroll went up a lot. Uh went up. 467. 000.

That's a lot better than expected: 467 000. uh. That is a that's a beat on the payroll number strong economy here: growth in leisure hospitality. That is like 3x.

The expectation uh very, very good four percent labor rate uh little changed unemployment, okay among major worker groups, unemployment rate for men was 3.8 and see here, uh after accounting for annual adjustments, the labor force participation rate held at uh, 62.6 uh and uh, so unemployment rate Did go up to 4 instead of the 3.9 that we had, but again, 467 000 versus 125 is a big thing. You're already starting to see. Treasury yields go up on this uh. A big beat was probably the the least desirable because it again gives power to the federal reserve to go all right job market's good, even with omicron, okay, average hourly earnings went up.

This is an important one: went up 23 cents, uh, two uh okay, so we went uh. 3163. Minus point. 23.

31.4. So let me divide that divided by 31.4 uh. That is, oh, that's higher than expected. That's uh, 0.0073 times 12..

That's an annualized rate of 8.76. That's not good, that is more wage inflation pressure and over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings went up 5.7 percent. I believe that is also a miss uh to the worst side. Okay, it is so the year-over-year expectation was 5.2.

We got 5.7. The month over month was 5.5. We got point seven that is a uh that is a double miss on the inflation number and a hotter read uh on uh on on the jobs report than anybody was expecting. I mean you even had jen sackey coming out going.

This is going to be a bad jobs report, uh we're going to come in with a low number. The adp numbers came in at a substantially lower figure than expected, and these inflation figures - four jobs here - came in a lot higher than expected, uh as well, so not a very good supportive jobs report. Here, despite omicron, we still ended up with wage inflation, uh and uh we're seeing the s p 500, not move horribly off. Of this i mean we're.

You know. The spy, for example, is down a couple points qqq in total, it's down about just roughly a third right now, uh qqq also dropping to essentially flat. Excuse me uh. Let's take a look at how some of the some of our techs are moving on this uh, but that is definitely a worse jobs report for the purposes of inflation uh and for the stock market, but for the purposes of individual workers, it's good.

It means finally, workers are getting paid more uh they've actually got snap moving up on the data, which is quite interesting. Spotify is moving down on the data facebook's moving down on the data. Some of them clearly are not correlated here. Uh square moving down wish flat.

Pinterest ticking down a little bit uh beyond me, ticking down a tiny little bit shopify taking down a little bit etsy yeah, i mean not not major substantial moves here. I do want to see what the 10-year treasury is doing and also what are the big ones like bill.com and amazon, doing barely moving. It looks like okay, amazon, moving larger amazon's only up about 11 right now in pre-market. This is in contrast to the about 17 that it was up yesterday, notice, also that a firm, for example, uh, which was up like 11 and after hours yesterday, is only up two percent right now uh.

So it's it's really remarkable and uh. It's it's worth noting that, generally the only time you have this, this kind of insane uh move these these insane like rallies, and then these insane sell-offs that lead to more insane rallies and insane sellers is, is during a bear market. Uh, you know it's, it's not! It's not ideal uh, but uh. It can happen.

So that's something to keep in mind. Uh keep an eye on is that this. This is a signature of a bear market, this sort of uh insanity in the stock market, but anyway again this report uh coming in a lot stronger than expected. I do want to go through a few more details within it and let's see if we can go a little bit deeper than what uh probably mainstream media is going to go on this uh okay, so i can open this.

I beat cnbc to it today. I was really impressed by that. You know i think they were distracted by their interview, but that's not my problem. Don't have an interview right before the jobs report.

Again the jobs report really good for employees, probably not so great, for uh for the stock market. So this is the january 2020 okay, so i'm gon na keep an eye. I'm gon na watch a spy as well right here, so yeah. Look at that spy is now more rapidly approaching the uh, the fibonacci at 38.2 uh we're well below the 50 right now.

So running over to that 38.2, we'll see if we bounce off of that, but uh, let's go through this with a little bit more of a fine-tooth comb that that month-over-month inflation read was not good, but anyway uh unemployment rate did go up to four percent. Again, we saw that 467 in january, the expectation folks, let me write down here, 125 - expected that's much much better than expected uh. This is this, is i i don't know how anybody could tell the fed this is. This is not uh, you know uh um.

You know evidence to potentially tighten more right now. One of the things that was good - that we saw was that this uh, this uh employment right here participation rate was expected to come in at 61.9, was the expectation and it actually came in at 62. 2.. That's good.

That is one of the things the fed is waiting for. They want to see more participation because they believe that, as that participation number goes up, we're actually going to be able to lower the costs associated with workers and that will slow down wage wage price pressures right. So participation goes up. Wage price pressures go down less inflation risk.

That is the hope. Uh, let's see here uh. I definitely believe j-pal is going to be raising rates soon. I see somebody saying j-power ain't going to raise him soon.

I think that'd be a little while for him not to i mean possible, but very unexpected uh. I do want to also just while we're looking at this, because it's totally worth mentioning is the headline article oh yeah, btc, by the way also dropped. Of course, i am checking out uh the usual ftx us so check these out by the link in the description down below go to mackevin.com ftxus, but take a look at the headline here on bloomberg. Where was it? It was here.

America is facing a great talent, recession, uh, and it's - and it's really interesting because you know when i ran for governor in california. The biggest thing that i ran on was what i call future schools and this idea that we should have trade schools, or rather than rather than essentially the last two years of high school and uh. I know some people here, trade school, it's like. Ah, that's lame.

No, the the idea was to have a future school that would teach a combination of uh sales skills, business skills, uh trade skills like programming, nursing, whatever you want to pick and financial education. So that way, when people are 18 and they graduate they don't necessarily have to go to college, they can just get a job, they can start working on robotics or autonomation, or whatever, right and so without reading and without reading this opinion piece. Yet i'm just going to give you my big opinion that this is very true that we, we don't have skilled enough labor in america, but the problem with that. Isn't people it's schools uh, but you know that's that's uh, that's politics for you and that politics sucks uh, nice smp bounce, nearly off of that 38.2 right there.

It's kind of crazy uh, all right. Let's jump back on over here, so uh. This news release. President.

Okay, let's see here both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons at 6.5 million changed little in january still got a lot more people unemployed than usual unemployment rate is down by 2.4 percent over the course of a year and okay, the see that's interesting Unemployed people prior to the pandemics had about 5.7 million and right now we're at about 6.5, which is only an 800 000 difference, but i think you have a larger group of those marginally attached to the labor force. Let's look at this here. Oh we, this is actually, i think, one of the first times we've seen the black unemployment rate under seven percent, whereas the white uh unemployment rate continues to be extremely low at about 3.4 percent, so big big difference in hispanic at 4.9 asian, that's 3.6 among the Unemployed, the number of job levers has increased to 952 000 in january, following a decrease in the prior month. Number of persons on temporary layoff at 9.59 in january also increased, but is down over the course of a year uh.

So this temporary layoff could be the omicron thing right here, so we could end up getting a big banger of a report in uh in february. If these temporary layoffs come back number of permanent job losers at 1.6, little change number person jobless for less than five weeks increase to 2.4 yeah. We would expect this number to go up because of uh omicron again, long-term unemployed has declined to 1.7 million measure. Is down from 4 million a year ago, wow uh wait was this february 2021.

You know 2020, okay, employment. Let's see employment. Participation was at sixty three point: four percent back in february. It's good that we just saw a little bit of a bounce up uh from fifty nine point, seven to sixty two two, though that's very good number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons at 3.7 continues to decline.

This is a very strong jobs report, honestly uh. This is very, very good number see this is. This is probably the worst line right here. The number of persons not in the labor force, who currently want a job, was little changed at 5.7 million.

In january, this measure decreased by 1.3 million over the course of the year, but is 708 000 higher than feb 2020. yeah it's. So this is where you've got a lot of people who want to work, but maybe they just don't have the skills to get a job uh or you know, they're, misplaced or mistrained or whatever, not their fault, probably schooling's fault and uh, and so that makes it Difficult to get a job and that's leading to that potentially lower uh workforce participation rate. It's all these things together, probably somewhere between three to four million people.

Okay, so in january, six million people reported that they had been unable to work because their employee employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic. Yeah. Well, that's probably again because of the january omicron considerably higher than the 3.1 million in december. Okay and then, of course, the the where the jobs came, 151 k in leisure, hospitality, uh, food and drinking places - 108, 000 accommodation, 23.

000.. Where did we see losses? I don't think we sell losses anywhere. Actually, yeah. We don't really see losses.

That's good transportation. Warehousing increased. That makes sense, oh all, right good, unless we have losses here on the next page nope and then, of course, this is the the bad line right here, because this works out to about seven point two uh percent annualized uh, which is higher than expected. We were expecting like a six percent number and then we were expecting 5.2 right here and we got uh 5.7.

So those numbers not so ideal average work week for all employees fell by 0.2 hours to 34.5 in january yeah all right, very, very, very interesting, so stock market in in reaction to this, not not like not cheering it right, not cheering this jobs report job, but We we have this consistent tug of war between the stock market and uh and people. You know workers and that's what we're seeing is that the stock market wants workers and wants lower wages and wants less inflation. People want less inflation, but they want higher pay because of all the inflation so they're demanding it and a lot of people don't care about the stock market they're. Just like stop the inflation.

You know, i think it's only somewhere around 50 of americans actually hold stocks, and and if anybody got started investing in stocks in like december or january, they probably hate stocks uh some people. If they got into the meme movement last january february, they probably also hate stocks. Again, you know it's a sign of a bubble when uh, when you're, like at the dentist and they're like yeah, you know my buddy talked me into investing in workhorse, i'm like. Oh no yeah, that's not good, but uh.

I mean i feel bad for that one, but that was there's a big old momentum. Kill you know. What's insane is oshkosh the company that got the job. They said that only like 85 of their vehicles were going to end.

I'm sorry they're. They only about 15 of their vehicles were actually going to become electric and then like two years ago, i'm sorry two months ago. What am i saying about two months ago, they're, like yeah, you know it's gon na cost us a lot more to have electric vehicles. Why don't we just make them all gas, cars and uh? So far the biden admin has not said anything about it, which which is quite wild uh, but yeah oshkosh y'all, really screwed us took, took a contract from an electric car maker, stupid, okay, uh 10-year treasury, nice little jump here, we're at 1.89 right now, uh five-year Break even rates relatively unchanged uh, although i don't actually think no yeah, no we're unchanged.

Let me go to the last three days here just to see, if i see any movement in it, it looks flat to me um yeah. No breakeven rates are stable, so inflation expectations still stable at high, but uh stable, hmm, see who reported this morning. Oh thanks, steve, okay, it sounds like uh uh. The uh white house wants them to reconsider.

Article just came out about it. Okay! Well, that's expected because politically that looked really bad, that they weren't saying anything, but that's good that uh they're asking them to reconsider their contract price, though the funny thing about that is oshkosh is probably just going to go. Okay, we thought about it. It's still a lot more expensive to do.

Electric wan na do that. You know, unfortunately, justin keith here is upset saying my title is fud, which my title is jobs report. Will it crush the stock rally gosh? I would hate for a question in a title to be considered: fud uh, whatever the unemployment uh, the unemployment data, has something everyone for. Everyone has payroll surge defied expectations, nearly doubling the highest estimate in the bloomberg economist survey, but the unemployment rate also rose thanks to an increase in the participation rate.

Earnings growth was strong at 0.7 percent of the month 5.7 on the year. Really there is something for everyone here: bond bears can point to a strong headline and growth in wages, while low rate apologists can cite the increased participation as the science supplies coming back to the labor market. Yeah they're not wrong and remember before the jobs report came out uh. I i said that uh we've got this uh.

You know triple thing of good news that could happen, which was uh lower inflation on the month of month, lower inflation on the year to year and uh, and the participation rate goes up. We got higher higher and lower a higher higher higher, which was uh two bads and one good. That's interesting biden doesn't like gold oil drugs. You got ta, add cannabis to that.

Uh epa urges post office to reconsider gas powered vehicle plan, they're not going to want to pay for it, and they don't have the money unless they get unless they end up passing the buildback better plan. It ain't happening window. Washer says this is probably the most accurate title i could have put well. Thank you for that all right.

Okay. So let's go take a look at some headlines together and we'll see what's going on in zaved, it is good that participation rate went up all right. So we covered this amazon set to add more than 150 billion in wild value swing yeah. Well, it's not going to make up for what facebook lost.

Yesterday of over 200 bill largest market value decline, ever uh in the history of the stock market, futures and bonds drop with jobs beating be fueling, fed bets, oops, uh fueling fed bets. Let's take a look at just it. Let's see, equity futures fell after a better than expected. Jobs report contracts on the s p and nasdaq were a little changed after rising as much as 2.3 percent amazon trimmed its pre-market gains.

Okay, we've already gone through this a strong jobs report, along with elevated inflationary, economic data that we've seen could boost expectations that we'll see a 50 basis point rate hike in a march meeting. That's true! I still believe that 25 basis points is the base case, but 50 is not far off the tail. It's not off the table. Volatile weak yeah, no kidding now we're seeing a little bit of fomo.

All of a sudden everyone's seeing numbers are good. I've got to get my exposure back and that's what we're seeing in the aftermarket moves right now. Oh this is talking about. Like the snap, the pins, uh, everything kind of ran right.

Dip buyers have hoped a strong earnings season would keep equities attractive encounter. Some concerns of tighter monetary policy and higher inflation, look um, bill.com and snapchat and pinterest gave better guidance, so they gave good guidance guidance for growth right, but amazon gave worst guidance. Google didn't give guidance and most of the companies uh have well, i shouldn't say most, but a lot of companies have reduced guidance. Qualcomm was another one that did increase guidance, though as well.

They really deserve to rally they had such a good report. Uh. Let's see here, signs of stubborn prices, price pressures increased after data showed us. Gas prices searched their highest level.

More than seven years crude oil extended a fresh seven year high in early trading with banks, including goldman sachs, for sacs forecasting. The brent will hit a hundred dollars barrel. You know yesterday in the uh. This is true this, and actually it was one of the things i said at the beginning of the live is like, probably no matter which way the headline number goes.

The stocks will not like it uh and and roy you've nailed it here. Strong jobs report sell off weak jobs, report selloff no win bingo because one says stagflation and the other says more tightening uh. You know so it's quite interesting. I mean, but this is uh.

This is a barely a mover here which is kind of shocking, given the incredible run there from amazon us tenure sitting at almost 1.9 here and oil wow brent is almost at 93 dollars holy moly wow oil extends gains above 90 per barrel as winter storm sweeps Through united states, i literally was going to read that as texas, which i believe is true but uh. It says the united states, i was about to say, texas, we're getting late in the cycle. The market is becoming more selective. The tide will no longer lift all boats and the market will become less and less forgiving.

In our view, going forward, we feel investors will need to cut losses quickly and focus on margins rather than top or bottom line. Yeah margins are something specifically free cash flow, that a lot of companies are really trying to talk up to get investors to stay with their companies and one of the ways they're doing that is by talking about how phenomenal the pricing pressures are, and pricing powers are Uh, you know, i mean ev every almost every report i go through uh, including gm ford, uh amd ralph, lauren, uh, amazon, vista outdoors, uh, everybody, everybody. Everybody is talking about price pressures, uh it and or maybe not just price pressures, but pricing power, uh starbucks, you name it and and pricing power is great for businesses because it can buoy margins right, but it's bad for inflation, especially since companies are kind of slow At doing price increases, for example, vista outdoors: oh, we passed the price increase in january. That goes into effect in april, so in other words, last month they increased prices, but those prices won't go into effect until april.

Well, if every company is doing that, then you might continue to see high inflation until well april uh. And if you think about what the bank of england said yesterday, which, if you haven't watched that video yet highly encourage you watch it it's basically when inflation was what the video was called and uh. This was the bank of england that uh shouted that out. So uh check that video out, if you haven't yet actually not a lot of people, really seem to care about which i was surprised because i wrote it was new report when uh, when peak pain, uh hold on.

Where was it when inflation will uh hear it at home? Okay, there we go uh when inflation pain will peak and uh. You know to me that was quite interesting. I don't know if i just posted it too late or what, but anyway i think it was a really good report. They talked a lot about the us, so uh hawkish comments from the ecp ecb and bank of england uh.

Let's see here, uh talk about the interest rate hikes to call inflation gone. That's the end of that. Okay anyway, very neat uh that uh we're. It seems to me that we're getting this overall alignment in not only what companies think, but also what central banks think now they could all be wrong.

I mean we've seen central banks be wrong before you can't trust j-pal anymore, as far as you can throw them, but uh now. Well, all right! Hopefully we do get that kind of inflation peak in april, so crypto trading volume slows uh voting ill for exchanges. Yeah coinbase, don't like that. Let's take a look here hi and they use the coinbase picture during the brutal cryptocurrency selloff last month.

Volumes also tumbled the development that doesn't bode well for exchanges of the digital tokens. Total spot volume slumped to 1.8 trillion in january, it declined of more than 30 from the previous month. Wow, that's, actually a that's a big decline, holy moly uh. Somebody here says they made 300 000 shorting paypal, 200, 000 shorting uh, facebook and 100k long on snap wow uh.

That is amazing. I learned lots from you. Thanks kev for the deep dive due diligence and transparency live stream. Runescape birching, yes, that'd, be amazing, wow.

So, okay uh total spot volume slumped to 1.8 trillion in january, declined to more than 30 from the previous month. Hmm, exceptionally, quiet, fearsome and uncertain time for crypto! Well, if you don't have fear in crypto, make sure you go to medkevin.com ftxus and check out an amazing trading platform and get the benefits listed down below in the description for the uh. Whether you're international then go to medkiv.com ftx or if you're the us go to ftx.us all right. So smart money as they say, doesn't sleep.

It takes holidays, but retail traders and crypto they do take a break, especially when they get hurt. The declining trading volumes will have a direct impact on revenues for coinbase robinhood and so on. According to bloomberg intelligence, roughly 90 of coins revenue and 40 of robinhood's revenue is driven by crypto trading, wow bitcoin uh yeah. That's incredible.

Hode has already articulated expectations for softer earnings results for q1, particularly because of the crypto slowdown. Uh crypto has lost a fifth of its value this year. Well and then, of course, btc we know is, is down about half from its highest: that's wild uh. Those are some wild declines here in volume, yeah, definitely not good for coin or robin hood.

I do wonder how coin has been doing well, let's take okay, amazon's, barely holding on to that eleven percent. Barely okay, let's see here uh coins at 181. You know some of these numbers get so low. We should really look at what they're getting priced at uh in in terms of um they're.

Multiple uh, quick note here losers here, wow ubiquity got hit. I wonder what i'm going to look at ubiquitous earnings. Yes, really quick, because so they reported, but i didn't cover their earnings and they've been a very consistent and stable stock in about 300. During all of the madness of the software sell-off and uh.

The tax sell-off whatever they've, regularly been sitting at 300, and it's only been in the last couple days that they actually sold down. Okay, so ubiquity just reported this morning, uh their second quarter. Revenue was 431 million down 10 year over year, they're, oh wow, their adjusted e uh uh eps came in at 166 down from uh the estimate of two dollars and 32 cents. That's quite a big miss on on eps.

Here they did declare a 60 cent dividend. Unfortunately, that didn't help much to buoy the stock. It is now down about 8.11 percent ford, also uh down about seven percent. Here, a lot of talk by ford about the supply chain, uh and uh.

I can't i can definitely say the more. I read the ford earnings call the more i kept thinking about tesla and how great tesla is tesla tesla, but anyway yeah. They were talking about really expecting low inventory throughout 2022, seeing supply chain constraints and commodities disruptions with manufacturers transportation. They do expect those to ease in 2022, but not go away uh.

They do also, though, expect strong pricing pressures mm-hmm. Okay. What else do we have here? Embrae air is at 14 bucks they've. Actually, i mean, i think they came out like what 16, but they haven't been doing terribly at one point: they ran up to almost 1940.

That was a little wild. I think this is when there was peak excitement around the spec uh because they they're spinning office back. No, that wasn't that wasn't in october, though that was more in december, not oh! Well so uh then you've got some other miscellaneous followers here. Uh here, uh apple down 1.3 adobe down 1.5.

I wonder if they're reacting to the jobs report yeah, it would seem so look at that right at 5 30. You start getting this sell-off at apple, uh and really to me. This is just a representation of markets. Again, pricing in chances of of that that 50 basis point hike in march and remember we don't need to have a unanimous vote.

That's the big thing is that this is like this could be like the supreme court. You know where you end up having a divided kind of response on voting yeah u.s futures slipped after stronger than expected payroll in earnings data, put uh focus on on already intense inflation anxieties. Well, yeah, i don't say uh okay, so i do quickly want to look at the forward on some of these companies and i'm going to write them down as i do them. So just so, we can kind of compare a little bit here.

Let's do apple! Okay! I want to write these down as forwards yeah and today is forwards for feb4 fab. Four, all right, let's do a little multiple calculation. It is it's obviously an earlier day here. So we have a little bit more time to do even some fundamental digging around uh.

So let's do some of these for fun here, so apple, all right, let's see what we have so apple has growth expectations in 22, 23, 24, 25 of really probably an average of about six percent. You know that's down from like this insane, like 33 to 29 growth that we saw during the pandemic uh, and even you know, as we came out of the pandemic, but uh their earnings per share for 2025. Just for giggles here is expected to be about seven dollars: they're 172 dollar company, so that puts them at about a 24.6 times pe uh 24.6 forward pe and with a six percent growth gosh. That's like a four on the peg ratio.

It's quite high you're paying a lot for low growth unless they can beat that kind of growth expectation. Their present p e ratio, though sitting at yeah, see their eps just isn't expected to grow that much 2021 six dollars so 172, divided by six rather than seven. That's 28.6: that's interesting: 20, 25 and uh 20 what'd. I say 20 i'll call it 29.

20. 21.. Hmm, i think a lot of people fleeing into apple uh, pushing that uh. What's it called uh pushing the flight to safety argument has has really pushed up the valuation here on apple a little bit uh.

Let's do another one. Let's do like um, let's look at something like sofi right, because so far in the fintech space has been getting killed on these lower volumes. And when you get these lower volumes like what what we just saw in bloomberg or even lower crypto volumes, which is something else that sofi benefits off of uh, they do provide crypto services. I believe they do through apex, but anyway, their 2025 eps is barely expected to go positive at 51 cents.

But if i put down sofi uh 2025 at 51, cent eps that gives us about was that, like a 22 times, gosh, that's less than apple on the forward divided by 0.51 yeah. That puts us at 22.7 and their growth is expected to be. You know over over 30 percent uh 22.7 pe growth over 30 percent uh. So so that's a peg of under one that's interesting, too yeah apple's down a little bit in the pre-market.

So really an interesting shift there on valuations apples really run up. Let's compare tesla uh yeah watch the first five minutes of the video on 2x. If you want to know how the jobs report was, you know, that's that's always for the person who just joined all right. Let's look at tesla, so tesla is expecting about a 19 eps and i think that's probably low tesla's probably going to kick kick these estimates out of the water, but let's just go with it.

Let's go with about nineteen dollars and that would give us a future. 2025 price to earnings divided by 19 of about 47.. Oh, it's really come down good and the growth rate is expected to be realistically over well in excess of 30 percent. If not 50 percent.

That's what elon says, though uh it's not terrible for 2025. yeah! Okay! Let's do oh, no i'll do another one. Let's do i don't know if a firm has any projections of being profitable yet by 2025. That was the problem.

It's one of the reasons the firms sold off so much it's a great company but they're investing so much yeah. No, no present uh presently expected path to profitability. We do expect them to be profitable in the future unless, of course, we go into a recession uh. I will be very clear and i've already been very clear.

The worst potential stocks to own going into a recession are probably ones that hold loans, because those would be the first things that stop getting paid during recession. Uh class started 30 minutes ago. Current forward. Pes, oh thanks for doing this calculation.

Look at that facebook at 18 apple at 28, amazon, 55, uh netflix at 36 - that i don't know if that's correct for for netflix data from watcher. I don't know what year they're using, but that's that can't be right on netflix. I will check i'll look at facebook too. That's a good idea because it's fallen a lot uh! Okay.

How do i become a member there's a join button that you could see next to the subscribe button, but you can't see it on an ipad or iphone? Okay, let's try facebook, that's a good idea. Okay, so facebook yeah here we go. Facebook is expecting earnings in 2025 of 22 dollars, wow uh 22 dollars that actually puts their p e. Oh wow, that's cheap 237, divided by 22.

they're selling for 10.7 times on the pe, and their growth is expected to be in the neighborhood of 14 15. That's not bad, you know that's a peg of about one, not bad at all. Uh. Let me look at netflix because i don't i don't believe their forward is 55.

It should be substantially lower than that should be, but we'll see all right so netflix netflix we're. Looking at 21.25 eps by 2025 and if iq 405 divided by 21 yeah see that brings me to 19.3 forward. It depends what year they were using, though, if they're, if they're doing the forward of 2022, which a lot of these, i think, that's probably what wide charts using the 2022. um.

You could see that, okay and and their growth is expected to be around 12. So it is a peg ratio of a little bit over one now that the price has gone up, but that's not bad, not bad, either uh, at least from what we've been used to right now, we'll take a quick break on on this one here uh. Oh, you know, let me do paypal really quick. That is also an interesting one that has just gotten crushed and uh.

Fed swaps now show a three-quarter uh point hike is priced in. I want to pull that up. I want to see it myself in uh in june. I forgot to say that part, a three-quarter rate hike in june, which is interesting because we have we have uh march may and june for uh for their meetings.

Take a look at this. This is the uh bond market monitor and uh. We are wow okay. This is quite interesting.

The market is pricing in a hundred percent, chance of a quarter percent rate hike, wait a minute, wait, a minute: no, no, no yeah yeah. They are okay. 100. Chance of a quarter point rate height and only a 14 chance is being priced in of a 50 basis point hike in march.

That means, if we get a surprise to 50 points in march, the market's gon na lose its poop. It's gon na freak. In may. We've got an 80 chance of having that, so the market's basically pricing in one rate, hike per meeting and anything that changes these expectations is going to freak out the market a little bit: uh yeah, okay.

Well, this was pretty much already priced in the uh. The three quarter in june so that that's not that big of a surprise and then we're 50 50 in july as to whether or not we'll have a fourth rate hike by july. So that's still up in the air. But so far it looks like the market's price.

Again, three rate hikes and the federal reserve does not like surprising the market. So you know it causes too much too many heart palpitations. Okay, paypal has earnings of about nine dollars expected with somewhere around 18 percent growth. Uh nine dollars in expectations the things trading for like 124, that's only 13 times for paypal, that's cheap uh! Well, i should say it's it's cheaper because we are looking at the forwards right, we're looking at 2025 forwards, uh and eighteen percent yeah.

That's a peg of under one for sure, wow nine dollars yeah! That's that's not a bad one. I think squish squares also fallen so much. We may as well look at square really quickly, uh yeah i'll. Let me talk about this in one second eps i had for uh paypal 2025 at about nine bucks square in comparison is we're looking at uh, four dollars and forty cents on square eps.

440. A full. Let's see, that's a growth rate, what a mixed growth rate! What a disaster here, probably somewhere between 15 to 25, i'm going to go with more like an 18 as an average there uh that puts their pe at about 20 right 101, divided by 4.4, yeah, 23.. Okay, that's their 4p yeah! Some of these prices have definitely compressed okay, so i do want to just mention this, though here so somebody's saying hey, you know why why basically buy gold when, when you could get eight percent on usdc or polka dot, eight percent or whatever fair question right? The problem is, if you, if you do - and this is only if it's not a problem in a bull market - you know it's it's easy to make money on stable coins in bull market.

You go into a recession and stable coins in a recession have the chance of being the victims of a lot of like um uh potential illiquidity. Then then, these yields could come at a at the worst possible time, where maybe you wanted the money to go? Buy the dip or something and then you can't potentially withdraw it. I think you'll lose your mind. Uh a lot of people will uh and and that that could kill the stable coin, but uh you know that's only in the event of a crash.

That would be like your your absolute worst case scenario. This is not an issue that you have with something like gold is. Is you know your liquidity for gold should be much more certain than your liquidity for a stable coin, which we are uncertain about in an actual recession? If and when we potentially do hit a recession, so uh uh, look, i'm not like trying to tell you to buy gold uh. Personally, i'm just saying this, because people keep asking me like why? Why not cash? I think i just need to make a video on that uh or why not stablecoin over cash.

I should do the math on that because, honestly, if i threw it all into usdc, that'd be crazy and let's just take one two, three one, two three times: .08 uh. Oh my gosh! That's 133k! A month, oh uh, yeah! No, that's intoxicating! Maybe i shouldn't have done the math, but anyway uh. Maybe i'll do a video on that. It's quite interesting, all right! So uh.

Let's take a look at some of our movers here, pre-market uh yeah. Then we can look at things like etsy and that sure. So what do we got here? We've got snap at 43, not as high as the 60 that we saw yesterday uh, but still very good right now, it's sitting at about 35, which is basically where it sat two days ago, which is kind of wild bill.com, is sitting at 205 dollars up about 20, which, on the hour chart, is basically also where we sat two days ago, amazon at 31, also where we were two days ago - that's kind of wild that, even though we're seeing these insane moves, everything's kind of just where it's been the last two days. It's like a tesla tesla tesla is stuck in the mud over here, a little bit pre-market up slightly, but it's really kissing this the support line over here at 880..

It does seem to be rising a little bit here. We got 15 minutes to go until the open seems, like things are, a little bit more excited again, yeah there. Oh look at that perfect bounce on the spy you can't make this stuff up. That is the most perfect bounce off of the 38.2 on the fibonacci.

We were talking about that earlier about how the fibonacci uh uh is is is going to be a big deal here and we'll see if we end up bouncing off and we literally did uh wow, that's crazy, okay, so qqq someone here says the fed reserve is Just gon na go gung-ho, whichever way they want. I hope not. You know they. They really tell us that they try to be as uh as as upfront as possible, so that in in order not to uh shock markets right, somebody here says: pinterest was up 25.

Now it's only six is that true, wow whoa, look at that. Did you imagine going to sleep after pinterest reported thinking, pinterest was going back to 32 dollars and then waking up to find it at 25 ouch. Oh yeah, look at that! Look at this like these distortions here and uh really what what this continues to reiterate here is people are selling the rip. You know every time we get these rips, it's just another opportunity for somebody to get out.

Tesla was on front page new york times paper. Ah uh, that was with the seat belt, how they're gon na fix the seat belt chime issue with the uh over-the-air update? I don't think that was really that big of a deal i mean after all, over-the-air updates are like the cheapest kind of recall. You could potentially do and it's not like volkswagen, where, when they have an over-the-air update, you have to actually bring it into the shop. Sorry, that's that's a mean reference to something true.

That did happen with a volkswagen, but i'm not sure if that's still happening that had happened in the past unity yeah. Definitely seeing some of that euphoria get pulled out and it wasn't necessarily just the jobs report that saw that that euphoria peak the market is broken. They say on cnbc: no, i don't think the market is broken. I think the market is is signaling in every possible way, uh the uncertainties of this bizarro market that we're in right now, yeah, it's weird, because it's different, you know we're used to normal by the dip markets.

This is not a normal buy the dip kind of market, because the uh, the underlying mechanics of the business cycle, are totally different right now and hopefully, hopefully things just level off as they say. I just hate that phrase a lot because that's what they said during 2006. You know 2006. Everybody was talking about how we're coming in for the soft landing.

It's all gon na be okay, we're gon na we're gon na land smoothly, and - and you know what this is just a minor correction - uh a little. You know, valuations were high anyway and then we'll just we'll moon from there. That was 2006 talk, you know, and all the haters and morons are like a bit. Were you trading in 2006, you were 14.

and it's like. Have you ever heard of history, that's kind of like well. How do you know about the great depression? Were you trading during the great depression? People are morons, oh my gosh. If anything, you could oftentimes learn more studying the past, because you have the answers.

You know when you're going through it. Sometimes you just turn the blinders on and emotion takes over and uh. You know you, so you really as much as possible. I want to try to take the emotion out of investing and look at uh how history guides us yeah yeah uh, all right so snap over here.

What do we got? Snap, uh, 44, uh yeah. I mean still still getting a little bit of a slip over here. Let's take a look now, let's do a little more of that fundamental too. I, like that, all right, a little bit of a capping out there yeah all right, not a big deal.

Okay wow, why is ford still going yeah? Look at that ford just pushed down again! That's another percent there on ford that it pushed down and uh facebook down another two percent in the pre-market here. How about paypal yeah all right? Let me get into etsy numbers here: uh, etsy, etc. Ford is dead, says someone uh watch the first five minutes, and then you get some of the summary of the jobs report, but uh very, very briefly: uh participation up inflation up like way more than expected the inflationary numbers and that jobs report was the problem. Okay, so if we look at etsy, etsy has an expectation expected eight dollar eps in 2025, let's write that down etsy eight dollars that would put them at wow they're only 127 bucks right.

No, that can't be, i thought they jumped in free market. I thought they went back over to like 130 or 140 in the pre-market. What happened? I will look at that: one: sec. 16, it's selling for about 16 times 20 25 and its growth is expected to be about 22.

That's pretty good, that's also under a peg of one, not bad, but what happened to them in the pre-market, because i thought they were selling for a lot more. Oh yeah. We should do some short interest. Data too, before the market opens.

Oh yeah, 127. Oh wow yeah look at that look at that after hours, we ran up to 141 and it just got sold off almost instantaneously. It's just that's the market. You know if people want to get out so as soon as they see the opportunity to get out they get they get out.

Okay, let's do short interest data. That's a good idea, especially. I want to see that inflection on kathy's fun, because shorts have slowed on kathy's and potentially inflected down, but i want to see if people are reloading reloading that shotgun. Somebody here says i sold etsy at 140 for a small loss.

Aha, it was daniel daniel did it daniel sold at 140., literally timed, the top of the aftermarket. Oh wow uh, let's see here, damn daniel. Thank you parandal all right. Let's get this short numbers, eight minutes to mark it open, quick reminder.

If you wan na trade crypto, which has been pretty easy to trade, thanks to the constant support lines that we keep going back to uh, make sure to check out uh medcava.com ftx for international or metcalfer.com ftx us for us. Uh traders check out those descriptions in the link down below apple wins trial in 1.1 billion dollar caltech patent case wow. I wonder if we'll see a move there on apple. I see here that could move the indices too.

Yeah yeah apple likes this news. It's still down about point six, nine percent, but uh not as down as it was earlier all right. Let's do some short interest here, charlie, okay, so you're. Looking above my head here, 2.68 on tesla, all right, let's go! Let's go get some here! Mttr yeah retail's been slowing 11.51 on matterport kind of stable if anything, tiny a little bit down.

Oh look ark. They had a little bit of reloading here on arc see the last few days here, things went down a little bit now it's starting to tick. Up again, how about spy puts spying? Qqq puts well shorts, not puts uh. This is not going to show us options, yeah spy puts are in or the spice shorts are increasing.

15.5 short on the s. P, 500. 14 short on the qqq. I mean this could be some massive.

This could create some serious short covering rallies shift technologies, 31.98 still high, my gosh so far, yeah we'll do that 32.62 tattooed chef still up there. Sofi is 14.06 percent. Climbing climbing shorts lemonade 36.41 had a little spike there, but stable. Let's do baba, i don't think they're very short, oh yeah 1.73, but even that's moving up again a little bit in phase 3.

We did arc affirm, also increasing we're going into higher numbers here on. On almost everything uh 1.98 on hippo, i don't think a lot of people know about it. Well, smile direct 31.26, oh the shorts on sq qqq. I don't know if i could do that.

I mean i'll. Try people shorting sqk, that would be bullish, yeah and the bullishness is going down. Oh that's funny: good old, inverses coinbase only 3.35 wow clove! Oh the momentum ones, 10.12. How about laser? Okay, four minutes to go here until open lays are almost 17 short now whoa.

Corsair 31.5. I mean, where are some of the highest levels of short, oh whoa. Look at this steve mentions russia and china agreed a 30-year gas deal by a new pipeline to settle in euros. This is russia preparing for u.s sanctions, moving away from settling in the dollars.

That's true that is true. You get uh right now. You hear the petro dollar, which is basically how oil gets settled in uh in the us dollar and uh. Here's a way to sort of escape that i want to look that story up right, we're going to take a little break in the short interest here.

Let me see: that's a good one, all right! Well, we can come back to short interest later. Oh, i will quickly do pallent here and i thought we already did: matterport palantir 5.7, if anything has been stable to the down. Matterport is what 11 yeah 11.51. Okay, let's see here.

What do we have? If i have that headline here on russia? No not yet kohl's rejects takeover offers, hurts names ex goldman financier okay, that doesn't matter um us must fix talent, recession to be china. Yeah. We talked about that earlier russia, china, euro oil, oh uh, 22 hours ago, it was may sign. Oh no, here bloomberg signs.

There it is, ah i hate that stupid sign ins uh. I got ta pick the chimneys hold on one sec. Oh my gosh, i wonder how much that's hitting the dollar all right. Let's take a look here.

There you go yeah, look at that russia forged a new long-term supply deal with china, as the kremlin aims to strengthen its ties with the asian nation amid souring relations with the west wow friendship between the two states has no limits. There are no forbidden areas of cooperation. Oh yeah, could you imagine putin saying that there are no forbidden areas of cooperation? Okay, that's fancy! Uh! Russia's relations with the western nations have deteriorated. Gas prices in europe have hit record levels.

Traders have been following uh. The flow of russia's energy exports closely standoff over the ukraine is amplified. New route to china will deliver 10 billion cubic meters per year over 25 years by a new pipeline wow delivering gas to china's northeastern tip makes this project strategically attractive for china. The ah wow want to go visit.

The pipelines would be kind of cool to see those all right. Let's see how the sticks are doing apple is going to help pull up some of the indices. I feel like putin smiles at the olympic ceremony. I can only imagine all right, so, let's just grab a few here, because the bell's in about 20 seconds, hey tesla, is up about 0.71 percent.

I wan na watch amazon. These are the ones i really wan na watch into open, amazon's up about twelve percent. I wan na watch these into the open because i wan na see if, if institutions are gon na, sell this or if they're gon na buy this, that news frightening to people, because what people are saying is all right is the two you're going to trade through That 30 years i mean that that says recession. Now, how do you have a recession and have job growth, the likes of which we've rarely ever seen? I don't know, but yes, it's it's.

The short end is saying: look out and it's sort of just saying: don't buy bristol mars, uh. Okay, here's our opening wages, 80 read there on the open, jim cramer. Just said: how do you have a recession with job growth at levels the likes of which? No one has seen before. Let me make that really easy for you, jim, the more job growth we get, the more the fed can focus on inflation, the more the fed, jacks up rates and and creates uh any kind of limited spending, the more likely it is.

We have negative gdp if we end up having negative gdp costs because we're comparing to 2021. We are in a paper recession and when we enter a paper recession with negative gdp comps and all of a sudden everybody's looking at the fed going yo fed you're going to bail us out and they're like sorry, we can't we have to keep hiking rates. Then we're going to go into a real recession and then that's how you go into a recession when jobs are actually doing really good and then only after you enter that real recession. Do you actually see jobs going the other way, so jobs are not your leading indicator for a recession at all, jobs are the lagging indicator.

Jobs are what goes wrong when you're in a recession and people start firing people that's. When the problem comes come on jim. You should know that you called bear stearns. Okay, all right, sorry that was that's a low blow.

I'm sorry, i'm sorry uh! There's amazon, amazon uh only up about 9.3 right now, which i i know is wild to say it's only up nine point: five percent, or whatever i mean that's great, but uh you did get a little bit of selling right here on the open, uh snap is Actually, moving up uh at the open here, look at that snap is trying to really push a push value here up to about 36.6, which is a nice pop from about that 35-ish level where we were in the pre-market here, trade desk is liking. This looks like amazon, yeah, amazon's still kind of slipping here, but it might start you turning green here in just a second based on the wicks there we'll see, uh xpev is is running for some reason here. Maybe we'd find out. Uh trade desk looks like wow.

Pinterest is only up 3.6. It was up like 25 percent in the pre-market or post market. Yesterday, dutch bros up another three percent here affirms only up about two tattooed chef up about two i mean we've got some green here. Yeah.

Look at this one: what's this oh dwack, of course the anti-biden bet honestly, don't blame it right now, uh! It's done very well etsy kind of dropping a little bit here. If i could click end phase there, we go and face trying to pop a little bit ford selling off a little bit more here ford now down almost nine percent. Oh uh, facebook down about two percent somewhat stable there at the open, ubiquity down seven and a half google down another two percent. I mean look at this.

Had such insane wall street bets momentum.