So bitcoin itself has experienced some major ups and downs in the last year and i think right now might be the most important time to make decisions and preparations for what to do. Next. In this video we're going to talk about several key dates that you need to know right now and i'll, give you my perspective on what we're gon na see with the feds interest rates and go over some important institutional data to help regular people like us, make The right moves in this market also towards the end of the video, we'll also be going over some important crypto trading strategies that you need to know alongside my market predictions for the next three months, all right so to kick off this video, the global crypto market Cap is currently sitting at 1.69 trillion dollars or a 1.86 decrease over the last day, just like we mentioned in our previous videos since the start of this year, the market seems to be in this consolidation range people are asking me, brian. Are you bullish on the market? Are you bearish, i've personally been giving the answer that i am more kangarooish, meaning we're just going to be bouncing up and down chilling until we get some more concrete news from the federal government on what we may expect to see? Next, just doing a quick little overview on some of the top all coins, we did experience ethereum having a bit of a rally earlier this week, coming even to a top of 2 800 before pulling back down today.

This is happening still because bitcoin is also now moving back down in price. An important level for you to all keep an eye out on is going to be 40 000 for bitcoin. Taking a look at the last one year. We aren't really too far off where we were just a year back we're almost exactly where we were since then for bitcoin to break out of this current descending trend that we've been in.

We need to break out of the 40 000 resistance level and from there, when we start hitting some moving averages and holding support at those levels, then we can expect to see that uptrend that we experienced two times happen last year now it looks like overall in The market today, most all coins, are actually down just a few percentage points. Solana did have an incredible rally throughout this week as well, going to the last seven days for solana, you'll notice that we start at about eighty seven dollars before rallied up to a hundred twelve dollars at its all-time high, pulling back down to under a hundred dollars. Right now, on top of solana, we do need to mention tara luna, because everything going on with time wonderland and seeing a lot of the protocols that have been getting shaken up since we've been getting additional news with a little bit of drama going on in the Crypto scene, we did experience tara luna in the last seven days, having a little bit of a pullback as well with luna sitting at 49. At the time of filming this video, it is sure a little bit ways down from the 100 101 all-time high.

We saw just a month back scrolling down you'll notice, with most other all coins being read in the market for today we're seeing the indicator of the crypto fear and greed index, showing that we are in the extreme fear. For today. This is coming down from a little bit of an improvement that we saw just yesterday, where we were in fear not extreme fear, sitting at a 28 versus a 20, which is happening just because of the market volatility and seeing prices go back down just a little Bit more on a day like this, so to kick off this video, let's talk very briefly on an update regarding crypto regulations. If you guys recall one of my last videos that i made just a few days back, we were actually talking about the current state of where we were at with regulation happening within the crypto industry.

Uh bloomberg first broke out the news about a week ago, and they spoke about how the national security council memorandum went ahead and talked about the impact of digital assets on financial stability and how it's going to be analyzed in this memorandum, as well as the potential For normalizing crypto regulations across international borders as well now the federal trade commission also came out with some pretty interesting data talking about different scams and what we experienced throughout the year of 2021 in terms of popularity. Now this chart right here is going to show us an indication of the reported frauds that we experienced and the uptick that we had in just the span of a year. This is going to come from the annual reported losses from fraud originating on social media. As you guys know, for crypto to spread nft projects or tokens to even get awareness, all this does start on social media now, based on this data.

This is why we're seeing more frauds and scams. I think it does play into the part, but you also do have to realize that many people were on their phone even more during the pandemic, and while people are sitting at home, they had the opportunity of having more exposure to a lot of these online scams. So, according to the numbers, investment related scams on social media represented 37 of all reported losses. What the ftc wrote was this people send money, often cryptocurrency on promises of huge returns but end up empty-handed, even if an investment scam didn't occur or happen on social media.

More than half the people who reported losses said the scam started on social media. The ftc says one type of crypto scam reported to the agency involves someone bragging about their own success to drive people to bogus investment sites. So, within the past year we've been seeing the occurrence of this happening so so much all over social media, oftentimes you'll get an instagram dm you'll get a fake, whatsapp number or you'll just have someone who is able to randomly find one of your social media platforms. Message you about joining their investment or their bitcoin mining rig or putting your money into some random website that you've never heard of before, and what usually happens right after that is they end up just taking all of it, so fraud cases from social media now account For roughly 25 of all fraud cases in the us up, 18 x from 2017 and last year, more than 95 000 people reported losing around 770 million dollars to fraud schemes from social media.

So back in 2018, we saw google and facebook restrict crypto related ads earlier. This year we had many instances of that. Just a few examples off the top of my head. We had the nft influencer scams that were happening, and we also had other instances where hackers would take over large youtube channels with 100k to even a million subscribers delete.

All their videos and then play live streams of elon musk, saying he's going to give away dogecoin to the people if you send him x amount. So if you send him 500 dogecoin he's going to send you back 5 000. That scam worked on a lot of people and then we've also seen ads playing on even videos like this, where uh someone will impersonate me and then trick someone into sending them money, saying we're going to give you these high returns and that obviously never happens with Data just like this, it's clear many people are getting tricked and i do get emails and dms pretty constantly saying brian someone's impersonating me and i almost fell for it and i almost sent an impersonator of me money and i've actually had this happen many times before And it sucks so really the whole idea of this and the regulation that we're gon na see should be helping out a lot of the scams that have been happening all across the web. I think a lot of this does start, though, with awareness, if you guys ever get a random whatsapp number or telegram request.

Please be careful and please do not fall for these type of scams now to segue back from one of the key topics that i mentioned earlier that we're going to cover in this video, which is key dates that you should be looking forward to we're going. To start with this, and that is going to be the next fomc meeting that is going to take place march 15th to the 16th. The reason why this date is so important is because we had ideas and talks about whether or not feds would raise those interest rates earlier this year. Now we have more confirmation and we're getting reports and other sources from banks and larger federal institutions talking about not if it's gon na happen, but how much it's going to get raised by.

So the reason why march 15th is going to be such an important date is because even leading up to it in the previous january 2015 fomc meeting, we had all eyeballs circulating it because, prior to that day, just a few days leading up to it, we saw The entire market take a tumble. We saw the s p 500 experiencing a pullback. We then saw the crypto markets experiencing pullback and, although crypto especially bitcoin, has been more related or used in many examples to gold, we've actually been seeing it a lot more closely correlated with other speculative assets and markets just like stocks. This has also resulted in larger institutions starting to make a pivot and rotation into other, more less riskier yields, and this is going to be the 10-year treasury, where you can see that even in the last one year, they've been going up significantly in price, especially since The start of january, taking a look at the last three months.

This is coming down from a low of 1.34 all the way up to 1.83. Today now, when we do begin to see interest rates going back up from the feds, you cannotice that other markets are going to get impacted as well. So if you're someone who's been interested in buying a house or at some point in the future, you're looking to buy one soon, maybe right now might even be a better time to lock in those rates. I know we're a crypto channel here on youtube, but sometimes it's good to talk about other, broader markets, because you know if you're making bank from crypto.

Obviously, most people's goals are to either buy a house at some point or to get a car and a lot of the markets will be affected and here's what you need to know so they state here over the past few weeks, we've seen an increase in rates Due to market conditions, as well as some loan level price adjustments coming down from the federal housing finance agency on certain products, the rate on a 30-year mortgage averaged 3.76, as of february 2nd and you'll notice, that throughout the pandemic, it was coming down when loans were Getting cut, and now we are still seeing that rebound going back up to previous levels, scrolling down they state mortgage rates will continue to rise in february. Inflation will remain elevated as the fed likely won't raise interest rates in the next couple of months, so rates are rising quickly week over week. As we begin at 2022. They state rising mortgage rates reflect the market's view on federal reserve policy, where three or four interest rate hikes are widely expected.

This year, the increase in the expected path for short-term rates and higher inflation have put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates. Now, although that does seem grim for anyone, who's been looking to buy a house in the near short-term future. You do have to realize anytime. We do get rates coming back up, oftentimes, the prices of the houses are coming back down, so there is a bit of equilibrium happening within the market and even at the end of this article here, they state.

The lows we saw during the pandemic are not likely to return in the short term, but rates are still in the affordable range. If you look at the historic average, just three years ago, rates were at 4.5 percent for homes and right now you can still find lenders that allow you to lock in rates now and to plan out for a year ahead in advance now something i did want To discuss was talking about how much u.s national debt has raised too and also talk about what this means for crypto and why bitcoin is such a strong solution, but before we do that, we do need to talk about a little bit of news coming from our Partners over at ftx, so ftx has been one of our partners kicking this year off for the channel. They offer some of the most competitive fees in the industry, whether you're trying to buy trade or sell crypto, and in addition to that, we also got some more news about their partnership with coachella, which you guys might have heard of as well. So ftx's partnership with coachella is going to highlight more in real life experiences empowered by nfts.

They also did a in real life experience with nfts at the gsw warrior stadium and thousands of fans were also able to collect some nfts there. So, in addition to the infinity keys, which offer 10 lifetime coachella guest vip passes with different perks, they're also allowing users to buy the sites and sounds package and the deserts and reflections package for 60 or 180 dollars as well. All of these are going to be released in limited quantity and they're going to be coming out in less than one day from now, i'm honored to be working with ftx, and i think it's so amazing that they are working with larger brands like coachella with doing Things like this personally for me, even though i don't attend music festivals, i think there is going to be strong resale value with some of the assets elicit here. I've been seeing them all over the news and, if you guys are able to get one, i do hope that you either take advantage of it or you're able to still sell it for a profit to someone who else wants it as well.

Now, with all that being said, going back to the video with the us national debt sitting at 30 trillion dollars, what does this mean for us? So in this article by the new york times, they state hitting the 30 trillion dollar mark, is clearly an important milestone in our dangerous fiscal trajectory. For many years before, covid america had an unsustainable structural fiscal path, because the programs we've designed are not sufficiently funded by the revenue we take in the gross national debt represents the debt held by the public, such as individuals, businesses and pension funds, as well as liabilities That one part of the federal government owes to another part so with the huge amount of rising debt. Something i wanted to talk about in this video was just the concept of cryptocurrency the concept of why bitcoin was created. First of all, bitcoin was built on the presumption that there's a fixed supply of currency that can't be manipulated by the government through more artificial printing, creating more and more excess of money.

At the snap of someone's finger as we continue to expand the amount of debt that we have growing behind the united states economy, you do have to realize that other monetary policies that other solutions towards money and how finances are used are going to be huge solutions. Moving forward into the future, regardless of whatever we may see, with rising debt costs or rising inflation, that we're seeing all across the board affecting our day-to-day lives, bitcoin and cryptocurrency was created in order to combat this and to be a solution for that. When we take a look at the one-year chart for bitcoin and all that, we've experienced it's easy to get funneled into a lot of the day-to-day news and different talks going on in the markets with fud and other regulation that stirs people up. If we focus more on the long-term impact of why cryptocurrency became relevant and what it's going to do for the future of innovation within its people and helping the entire world out, i do think long term.

The growth, the impact and the sustainability is still there. Taking a look at short-term price actions and articles coming out and talking about how bears are firing up and looking at the different macroeconomic trends. I think it's easy to get lost and have some more darker sentiment in this market, but just focusing on everything going on. In the world, if you're able to answer this, one question right here is crypto long term going to sustain us is crypto long term going to be relevant.

Is this a solution to the problems that we have and will this still be relevant if you are able to answer yes to any of that, if you think crypto will still be around in the next one, two five to ten years, you're still making a better Bet than you did, if you were to invest into the markets a few months ago, where bitcoin was at its all-time high. I know it can be tough for a lot of investors and i know buying up the dip is mentally exhausting and you really got to pull yourself together, but long term as an asset and as an investment. You got to be bulletproof through this and you got to trust yourself and you got to handle your emotions doing that. Oftentimes leads to much larger opportunities and even stronger gains for the ones that are able to stay a hold through these cold times.

Alright guys so before. Moving on and talking about, my theories and predictions on what we're gon na see happen in the next three months and some of the trading strategies that you should be taking advantage of right now in order to stay ahead of that market curve. I want to go over some more interesting data that we've been seeing happening in the crypto markets just in the past few weeks. Now a lot of this is going to be sourced from the keiko research and they do a great job at pulling institutional market data and breaking it down for people like us to understand a lot easier.

So what we noticed from the last fed meeting was that volatility picks up significantly right before the meeting date. You'll notice that looking at the price of bitcoin and ethereum, we were seeing very similar price trends happening with these assets. Not only that, we were seeing a lot of this translating directly into all coins, seeing even more amplified effects as well for us investors. What does this mean, and how can we take advantage of it? Well, anytime? You know that there is volatility coming up.

This is going to be an opportunity for you to maximize those swing trades for bitcoin to fall back down below 34 000 and then immediately jumping past up 37. 000. Obviously, there's a spread right here where you can enter positions and sell at a gain for crypto. It seems like any time we do have a dip.

There always seems to be a floor or where all the buy limit orders are held, and that is usually where the floor of that certain price is met with bitcoin most recently, even though many people were hoping, it fell down below 30 thousand dollars, so we could Get an even larger discount. We did see the floor of that entering around 32 000 according to glass note and some additional on-chain data you'll also notice that the bitcoin entity, adjusted dormancy flow, will show that we are currently at some of the most oversold levels in the history of bitcoin as Well, anytime, we do have the crypto fear and greed index, which is at extremely fearful right now and we're getting these indicators of, buys and buys and buys because we're seeing oversold levels. These are often times where you can still find yourself getting a huge amazing deal on this asset, especially if you're holding it long term. So taking a look at this, they state, despite 24 7 access to crypto markets weekend liquidity has historically been less than weekday liquidity, as measured by trade volume.

Taking a look at coinbase, you'll notice that on saturdays and sundays, you are having much less volume compared to monday through friday, where binance the difference doesn't seem to be as extraordinary, but you still do see less volume happening on those days as well. The liquidity over time from 2018 to 2021 is now indicating a shift in that, so we are now still seeing more volume happening on the weekends compared to where it was just a few years back now. The reason why we normally see saturdays and sundays, having less volume is because institutions tend not to be working on the weekends in the office and when they do place their trades. It happens at some point during the week when they are at those offices for those funds.

They explain it best. Here weekend, trading volume rose faster on binance, almost doubling over the past two years, while volumes grew at a slower pace on coinbase. This could be explained by the fact that binance has a strong retail reputation, while many institutional investors which are trading during traditional market opening hours, prefer regulated fiat crypto exchanges such as coinbase. Now, at this point, what we really need for bitcoin to start moving back up is going to be a lot of green lights from institutions knowing that it is okay to invest into the markets.

I think it's going to be tough, seeing that until we get that firm regulation that we're supposed to see by the end of february. So with all that being said, where are we currently with the crypto market? And what is my prediction moving forward in this year? Now my weakness is pulsing for a greener month in february, hopefully before we get to see what that regulation entails, or maybe if we do get that regulation report on what that executive order is going to be at some point in february, it's going to be another Green light on the government realizing how much of an asset crypto really is, and we're going to start seeing more institutional investors and demand rising back up now, i do want to let you know. Sometimes the weakness is broken and it is not always right. If that is the case, and february also happens to go down, i do hope that in march, when we do see a little bit of interest rate hikes, we don't get a complete opposite effect happening in the market.

If february happens to be a green date, then i do expect march to be a little bit more of a red month, especially approaching the fomc meeting date. This is because we do experience that volatility like we saw recently happen in january, and if we do have confirmation on interest rate hikes, which is about 99 possible that it is going to happen, then oftentimes we do see adverse effects in other markets, especially in stocks Which is now highly correlated to the crypto market as well, once we get through to march, i think april is really going to be the deciding factor on where we stand within the markets. If this is a crypto winter and we do enter a bear market, we're going to get confirmation of that happening in april now. Personally, for me, i do want to stay more on the optimistic side, but realistically, i think the chances of us entering a new parabolic high in march or april is pretty slim.

I think we're still going to continue to consolidate in february if we're able to break out of 40 000, which i'm expecting to see just at some point, then we should have a little bit more momentum to carry us forward to this year and i think march And april might be another cool down month, but, like always, i hope that i'm wrong and i hope that we continue to see better optimism and price action with a crypto. I know a lot of you guys are afraid of bear markets. I made a video talking about why bear markets are actually beneficial, especially for investors like us, and if you guys have been watching these videos, then you should be prepared for that, because bear markets are still going to offer some of the most high opportunities in this Market, so if that happens to be the case, and we are approaching those territories here are some of the moves that you can make. If you do think that february is going to be a much greener month and you do have positions in the green, you can either dollar cost average your investment out, assuming that your average cost in has been lower than that.

So you are profitable or you could also take out your house money if you still want to have some type of positions in the market just in case we do hit another upside if you're, not that much of an active trader and you are a hodler. There is nothing wrong with that strategy as well. If your intentions of being in the crypto markets is in the landscape of two five or even ten years, there are people who have still been holding bitcoin, even when they entered back before the boom of 2017 and before the previous crypto winters we experienced. When you have some of these large accounts, wallets and whales still actively checking in but not selling off their positions and realizing well, i wonder how long that they're gon na go for.

I wonder how much higher this asset can go. It gives you a much more of a confident stance in the crypto market, knowing that you have longer more experienced investors still holding those bags as well. Most importantly, right now we are still getting more and more word of companies joining in and investing into web 3 and other crypto related projects. When we get this much backing, when we see the support from vcs and a lot of these companies still doubling down on the innovation happening here, i don't think it makes sense to bet against these type of players.

Now, if you do happen to be a bit more bearish on crypto, like i said you could continue to prepare now, just because we are still a bit more green than we were just a few weeks back, and if you are up on your investment, you can Decide whether or not how much risk you want to actually keep in the market. For me, i think the easiest and most stress-free play would be to dollar cost average into the markets whenever we still see extreme fear, pulling up those dips and hoping that in the next short-term future, we're still going to see this investment go up. So if you guys made it towards the end of this video, thank you all so much again for watching. We usually do a code word and that code word for today is going to be raindrops, because it's raining in the state of maryland raining outside right.

Now i know if you guys can hear it comment that down below and don't forget, to check out the links down below in the description, if you guys also want to join a community, be a part of the jungle nation. Take a look at some of my buys trades. My research and also have access to other very experienced veteran analysts within our group. Don't check out our patreon list down below in the description.

We did recently open up some new spots. It is the brand new start to the month and if you guys want to have access to an amazing community, don't forget to check out the link for that down below as well. Now, with all that being said, you guys thank you all so much again for watching today's video, don't forget to follow me over on twitter and instagram, also link down below in the description and have an amazing day. Peace.

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