All right everyone, the doctor is here, it looks like we've got ourselves a little bit of a fever and we need a prescription. The prescription is not what christine lagarde had to say. No, no, no, okay, look! If there's one person who is like a perma dove. It's christine lagarde over at the ecb european central bank she's a dove she's like more of a dove than j pal.

Remember a dove, it's kind of like the little bird that just kind of walks around and goes. I don't want to do anything versus the hawk who comes in for the kill uh. She uh had a little bit of a flip today and - and this could lead to uh some nervousness in markets here. Uh her flip today, uh, is that now she cites unanimous concern about inflation.

Data, however, is still kicking the can down the road a little bit in terms of when they're actually going to respond to inflation, but does argue that underlying inflation gauges have risen and that now we face persistent inflation versus the transitory inflation that we were facing. Uh potentially last year, so christine lagarde is not writing us a prescription yet. But when we see christine lagarde u-turn, people get nervous because she's one of our last remaining big old doves uh, and so that's something to be nervous about uh or at least watchful of right. Just who knows could end up just being fun but uh.

Something to also keep an eye on is uh federal reserve. Obviously, they've got multiple different uh board members who who started chatting about how they were thinking about, maybe uh reducing the balance sheet instead of uh, just purely focusing on rates. Keep in mind that this could be one of the ways of delaying tightening uh, given that be our reverse repo, or, let's put it this way, there's so much liquidity in our system in america. All you have to do is look at reverse repos to see the six plus billion dollars that we have sitting around and uh or actually in reverse repos.

We've got somewhere around one points. Foot 1.5 trillion dollars sitting around in reverse repos. Now ignore the billion comment and uh all of that money is gon na have to get vacuumed up before you actually effectively have tightening in the market uh thanks to any kind of quantitative tightening or balance sheet runoff and unfortunately, that's going to take a while. That could take somewhere around 18 months.

So when you hear the fed start talking about - oh maybe we'll just we'll just you know offload the balance sheet instead of raising rates, maybe, but if inflation continues to run the way even now, christine lagarde is talking about. It's probably going to be very unlikely and the fed will be more forced to raise rates, and so, as a result, you're seeing markets sell down a little bit. Uh now keep in mind that uh, we do have a little bit of pain today, also because of earnings earnings that came out yesterday, specifically with facebook, but also with other companies like qualcomm, both complaining about potentially inflation and persistent supply chain issues. Creating issues for advertising budgets, creating issues for supply chains uh, you know initially and a little frozen there.

There we go uh. Initially, you've got uh a lot of this enthusiasm from qualcomm that, oh, maybe supply chains are getting better, but then, when you actually read the earnings call it's like no, not really they're, basically just saying hey we're we're getting some more contracts with vendors but yeah. No! It's still bad out there, so not so good. In the meantime, you also have tesla that is planning on issuing an over-the-air software fix for more than 817 000 cars due to a seat belt, chime malfunction that could cause drivers not to be aware that they are unbuckled, okay, uh anyway, so over-the-air updates.

I mean those are probably the cheapest possible fix. You could come up with for uh vehicles, which i honestly think is great, because it helps tesla save some money uh. It's also possible that when the market opens that facebook could end up creating the worst single day valuation destruction that a stock has ever seen in stock market history, that's because we had paypal that dropped like what 26 percent in a day right. But paypal has a market cap of what it had a market cap of 200 billion dollars, and now it has a market cap of like 155 billion, so i wiped out about 45 billion right well.

Facebook has a market cap of about 900 billion dollars and a pre-market the things down like 23.5, so that could be the single worst uh destruction of shareholder value ever at about 200 billion dollars of just incinerated money uh, and i think one of the things that That is extremely frequently forgotten in the stock market. Is we like to think that oh well kind of like energy right money is neither created nor destroyed, probably heard of energy is neither created or destroyed? Well that doesn't work for money. Money is destroyed, money can, just if all of a sudden, you have people buyers for meta who say you know what just not interested unless the price is 250 or 240 or whatever. Well, the difference between 250 and 330 get evaporates instantly, and if you lose all your buyers there, that means the value of a company can drop 200 billion dollars and the money doesn't actually go anywhere.

The money just disappears. It's the same thing as when stocks go up or or companies uh say their ceos are worth billions of dollars just because they did a 100 million dollar offering at some form of 8 billion valuation or whatever. So anyway, money uh can can absolutely get evaporated. Quite quite quickly and uh, we are seeing more and more of that evaporation and it does not need to go anywhere and that's the scary part uh shorts can make money.

Though now one thing, that's actually good news, uh and we've seen this for the last few days. Actually uh we've been seeing some data coming up about this, but there's more uh. There are more indications that uh annualized new car sales jumped in january and that for used cars, we're starting to see prices come down. Finally, for used cars - that's great, but unfortunately comes right when housing is expected to take over a large part of cpi based inflation, and given that auto inflation really only takes like a seven percent.

Six to seven percent weight. Energy takes like a ten percent weight and uh housing takes a thirty percent weight, probably not going to help much when we see negative, auto inflation. We also had jobless claims that came in uh, actually a little bit more than expected uh and we came in at oh i'm sorry, uh. No, we actually came in less than expected.

Oh that's good! Uh! We were expecting to have more jobless claims. We came in at about 238 000, so um good, it's just a little bit more on track and again. The hope is that this jobs report that we're going to get tomorrow, uh, which is not just the unemployment claims report, but also the actual unemployment uh. So, on the weekly basis, on thursday, we do unemployment claims how many people are filing for unemployment compensation on the first friday of every month.

Generally, we get employment figures. What's our unemployment rate, how many people uh how many jobs were created or lost and uh? So far, we're expecting things to be pretty bad, possibly even negative, but only temporary or transitory because of the uh madness of uh omicron in january, but we will also be looking for that wage data. What do we think wages are actually going to do? In fact, let me pull up the estimates here, because wages are going to be a big deal on that report tomorrow. I don't think anybody in the market is really going to care about that top line number.

What the unemployment rate is, how many jobs we lose blah blah blah or gain whatever? I think the market's going to care very specifically about that month-over-month wage inflation figure now based on every single earnings, call uh that that we read wage pressures are absolutely intense, really really intense, uh and uh. I i don't believe you can. You know i. I know that earnings calls can sometimes have a little bit of bias right when we talk about this too here that uh, oh well.

Of course, starbucks wants to blaze, blame supply, chain issues or inflation, because that's an easy cop-out right, uh, just like google, doesn't want to mention it, because maybe the numbers were really good in q4, maybe they're not as great anymore in q1, who knows uh but uh. If everyone's saying it, then you know you have a problem and it's certainly a bad signal to the fed. Anyway, unemployment rate is expected to stay flat at 3.9 percent. The survey for the average hourly earnings is expected to go uh up 0.5.

That's compared to last month's point: six percent uh. So we'll see if we end up getting that about six percent annualized rate of annual inflation for um hourly earnings, and then we also have an expectation that the labor force participation rate will stay flat, which we know that neil kashkari over the fed says that going Up is actually an important part of the economy getting better, but it's been lagging and we're expecting maybe 150 000 jobs. It's probably one of the lowest reports we've seen in a while. On top of that, the islam uh well, an islamic state leader, was killed during a counter-terrorism raid.

I i feel, like this sounds very familiar to the obama day of osama bin laden and the trump day where, essentially, we had this announcement about an operation killing some form of uh a high high end terrorist last night. At my, this is joe biden last night at my direction. U.S military forces in northwest syria successfully undertook a counter-terrorism operation to protect the american people and our allies and to make the world a safer place. Uh wow, apparently the individual that they raided quote detonated a bomb that killed himself and members of his family, including women and children at the beginning of the operation.

I guess he didn't want to be taken alive. All right, crazy, freaking world we're in well at least um. Most of us just have to look at red and green sticks uh, and we don't have to worry about getting rated like that. Knock on wood - i don't know, i don't know, maybe maybe you know maybe isis also invests in stocks and needs to watch uh.

You know market updates or something i don't know anyway uh. Oh my gosh. Facebook is now down 23.27 sitting at 247.. This is pretty ugly uh this this downtrend here is about to show one of the largest plummets of a line that we've really seen for a a company.

That's this large uh. I mean we are going down to about january of 2021. yikes uh, we'll see that uh when the market opens here at 23 and a third now snapchat down 17 spotify, so spotify tried recovering. Yesterday it went as low as uh an 18 decline, and, and now it's uh now it's back to about a 13 decline, so not so ideal for spotify.

It looks like it's gon na open around 165, which uh is is about the low that we had on january 28th, and what we really want to escape is is some of these lows? Uh, that's not so ideal. Uh yeah, as uh will here, says true value discovery here. Yeah no kidding is isis a polar bear. Oh man tbd uh yeah.

They don't leave comments, god uh owlette's, actually up seven percent in after hours or i post uh pre-market hours here, not a lot of green, though look at that we uh right now on the on the pre-market watch list. Here we have half of a page of green, that's bad uh. You know. Usually we have just like one day of of uh or one page of green at least now.

The best thing that we can hope for is to to see a nice move, uh in in the day where we end up having the indices red to start with and right out of the gate. We get some kind of push to the upside that that would be the most ideal yeah right now. Oh quite interesting, we're we're back to about that 50 line on the spy er. That's a pretty close balance to what we've got here.

I've got a line written at about uh 450 66.. We had a bounce here at 450, 37., we'll see if we end up breaking through this. The the fibonacci lines, i don't believe, are as strong as that 430 line that we have drawn, but we'll see what happens here and if we end up getting any kind of fall. Let's see looks like we're.

Gon na open up yeah four yeah about about around there, so right now, tentatively 1590, there we go uh, so we'll see what kind of open we get out of the spy uh qqq down two point: seven percent: wow yeah! That's that's! Quite a bit of uh an indice or an index open here, but then again it makes sense when one of your one of your heavyweights here is down 23 and a third, that's just nuts uh yikes yikes uh. You know people ask me about this. The march of 2020 prices and the problem is the fed bailed us out. Well, the market was falling in march of 2020.

they're not going to be in a position to bail us out this time, at least not immediately, which is quite bearish uh, and i don't want to sound like a terrible pair just saying like if, if we were, If, if, if we were to have a recession, that's the fed's not going to be as uh as nice to us, we're, not our friends right now, we're playing with somebody else. Even christine is not becoming our first is you know becoming our our unfriend? That's not good uh. Let's look at some individuals here, so we've got uh some airlines and travel stocks only down about a percent target. Darden u.s oil, nike, you'll notice.

A lot of the recovery stocks have actually held up quite decently in in some of this tech wreck that we've been going through uh coca-cola berkshire hathaway. You know companies with a lot of cash or certainly the potential of larger free cash flow uh, which i know is a little bit more rare for some of the recovery stocks. But still you notice that they haven't done terribly like carnival's kind of been dancing around. These levels, uh ford's, been chilling around 20 for quite a while, since november did have a little bit of a run there temporarily uh.

Let's see it's moral, the spax, the software service providers, the tech companies. These are the ones just getting destroyed. Uh 2.84. Here again on paypal, this follows an over 20 decline yesterday, which is just crazy, uh squares down in the pre-market.

I think quite a bit. Let me see here square and you think it can't get any worse. You know, i think, that's the problem is i you know, i hear people say they're like kevin, but kevin stocks have already fallen so much. How could they fall even more, and i it really makes me scratch my head because i'm like you realize that stocks do not care what they used to be.

In fact, stocks don't know anything about their price, but the fundamental value of a company is not the floor of what a stock price can hit. You know you can have a stock drop 90 and it could be cheaper, but that doesn't make it cheap. You could have a stock drop 50 and maybe it is cheap, but it could keep dropping in in a bad market right now. Generally, you get a very quick rebound uh well above fundamental value on on uh companies when you do have uh some form of uh of a crash uh recovery, but um we'll see so uh arc, uh arcs back to 70 bucks, not uh, hitting that low about 63 dollars that we've seen we see uh end phase, also down about 4.75, five or 5.6.

A firm is down seven percent uh still not quite to the lows that we've seen the lowest levels that we've seen pre like amazon deals was a firm going just below 50 right now it looks like we're going to be opening somewhere around 56. Although this this order book is horrible, look at how thin this order book is folks and - and you could just take a look at how this works - okay, so so look at this - you see see this right here. Here's just an order book and you got a hundred shares willing to be bought at 5616 uh. And then you know here you you immediately go down almost a dollar and a half where you get 500 shares being willing to be bought at 54.88 and a thousand shares over here at 53.

50 uh 35. This is not a lot of buy power. Now you do have people trying to get out see. I always think this is interesting like over here you've got a thousand shares wanting to be sold at 59.33.

This person might have to paper hand and lower that limit to actually get executed or they'll just wait, and this is how you create those convictionless rallies, because the stock finally starts going back up. But then it hits those limits and start falling in sad uh. Small caps doing the same kind of drag around around potentially little temporary floor positions that we've seen many times before uh. You know like remember when we drew these scaffolds over here for shift.

I really drew these because i wanted to see a full bar or two of closing above these two to really say: okay, maybe maybe now we're seeing we're having a counter trend rally uh as opposed to a bull trap and uh. What you really have here is uh the same sort of pattern of difficulty of of breaking out above some of the previous levels that we've been at now shift technology's got a lot of orders, a lot of purchase orders here sitting at about 190 and a lot Of cell pressure right at about two 2.1, so wouldn't be surprised to see this one fall a little bit there, a little more in the pre-market, we'll see or once once the market actually opens. Rather, i should say metaport down at eight dollars and ten cents uh. Obviously, twitter pinterest trade desk spotify uh, any advertising related play is just getting hit because of that disaster of what facebook announced, uh, yeah, yep, uh nathan says here: listen to the facebook earnings call and the word they used about a hundred times was headwinds.

Yes, the drop is justified uh. This is in response to star here who says facebook. Job must be an overreaction, no way it's justified. You know, one of the things is, you could have a potential overreaction on the day.

Uh, let's say let's say a justifiable drop here, just as an example is it's 20 and it drops 23 percent. You know. Okay, maybe there's there's an argument, there's some over reaction, but what it? What matters isn't so much whether there is or is not an overreaction. What matters is when we're in a market where you can have these insane rally days like we saw on uh monday, specifically where tesla was up like 10 in a day right when you can see those sorts of rally days or a 23, followed by days of, Like a 23 decline on a fang stock, the largest wipeout in in market cap history, ever in the stock market and uh, a tesla bleed to levels that that are really lower than where we were on friday or on monday.

You know monday morning when the market opened, then that's when you really get concerned that the market is is not just extremely volatile, but this extreme volatility tends to be associated more with with bear markets than bull markets yeah. So we shall see, but uh nvidia not very happy going right back down to about 142 143. google, a lot of speculation joined google thanks to wall street bets and and social media about. Oh, my gosh buy in at any cost, because the stock splits here and you know, stock split - was good for for uh, apple and tesla.

So it must be good for google right, not necessarily uh. The psychology of the stock split works when you got j-pop printing, a bunch of money and blowing it on your face: j-pop blowing money anyway, uh facebook. Now, briefly, under 23, let's go ahead and take a look here, also how uh crypto and some of the other action is going here, but uh yeah, let's just say rough morning, so we'll see how we'll see how market markets actually move the first minutes of the Day uh, which the market starts uh or opens up in about five and a half minutes, so we're close all right, uh go into the one minute candle here and zooming out on btc. What i actually like right here on ftx, which remember you, could sign up for ftx by going to mattkevin.comftxus.

One of the things that i that i like here is is this relative stability in this 36 six area uh and this 36 six area is, is an area we've seen a lot of resistance for btc before between 36 6 and a 36 3, and so we're Perfectly playing those those lines again so to speak. I've really got to draw them on here again uh, but um you you're, going to have a tentativeness until market opens on btc. My expectation is if the market opens, we get hit with uh, maybe a minute or two of of big red and then right after a minute or two, a big red. We we hopefully get a movement to the upside.

I think then btc will have a nice move to the upside as well. Just because, as a in terms of a pattern, that's kind of exactly what has been happening so we'll see what happens. Uh keep in mind folks. There are also some questions about pmi reports.

You know uh, i somebody asked me hey kevin, but but you know overall uh the purchasing managers index for prices paid is is on a declining trend for uh. For for you know the last few months. So the problem is pmi. Reports don't actually really work in a way that they give you quantifiable differences in how high the data comes in uh.

That's because they they kind of equally weight each company, so you can have one company, that's massive! That says we are getting killed with inflation and another company. That's like yeah inflation's about the same as it was and uh they have about an equal weight in that report. So you can actually see a trend to the downside in prices paid uh in the pmi report, even as the report is still above 50, but it not necessarily give us the best reading on inflation. Pmi reports are supposed to be pretty good, though, in that anytime we get numbers over 50.

It means everybody is either expanding more or an underlying question is expanding more, whether it's in prices paid or manufacturing or whatever services right uh. So it could be a good survey, but we've had 14 consecutive months in a row now of prices going up uh well above the the read of 50., so be really interesting to see how potentially cpi data affects the pmi report. Sometimes, when we get a really bad cpi read, it seems, like those reports, go up because uh more manufacturers, whether it's actually or subconsciously, start start reporting inflation being worse. So we'll see, reports can be a little funny hardcore six thanks.

So much would i interview the ftx founder. Of course, should we be worried about tesla recalls, you know being an over-the-air update, probably not uh. Did you see kevin o'leary sold paypal yesterday and bought facebook? Oh no! Oh! No! I didn't that's terrible. I mean that.

That's just bad luck because because if you take a hundred dollars and then you lose 25, you know whatever 25 in paypal, which i'm pretty sure it was about 25.. And then you take your your left over 75 and you invested into facebook, and then you subsequently lost another 23. That would mean you're down to about 57.75 in two days from 100. Now the good thing about kevin o'leary is he's extremely diversified, which is quite incredible.

Yeah he i think he has like 600 different positions, so it's quite plausible that his paypal and um meta positions are really just in the realm of, like you know, a total of a percent or two of his portfolio and i'm not trying to defend what what Happened there, but anyway uh, oh scheisse, look at this. You've got uh facebook actually now falling into the close. I think this is literally going to be the i'm sorry into the open. This is quite literally going to be the worst uh single day.

Wipeout we've ever seen unless we get a substantial recovery here throughout the day, it is down now 24.2. Keep in mind that uh the market opens in about one minute and uh we could have a recovery could get some by the dip action. But i think the big question is how much more is facebook gon na drop in the first minute or two uh, because you could you could end up falling to negative 30 percent and then have like a a a slow recovery right and maybe end the day At down 20 right, but anyway, at the same time, snap is falling. Uh it's down now to 19, also falling into the open pinterest falling into the open about eleven and a half percent spotify falling into the open about uh 14.12.

Here, twitter twitter is actually trying to rise into the open here uh and then some messy messy moves elsewhere. Let's do a quick, quick peek here at tesla before the market opens tesla down about 2.7 trying to move up uh into the open all right. Let's give it a listen here. Comes the bell anniversaries of two atf's at the nasdaq celebrating its business combination, vistas media acquisition and angani, a music streaming platform in the middle east and north africa.

That's what's happening right now. People decide that streaming is dead. What happens if uh, what happens if, if streaming, isn't there and that? What is that you? It has that's about 80 red right now, uh, probably a little too early to determine what the spy is going to do here. Getting that sort of typical red candlestick out of the gate, uh but uh, very, very typical, the first two minutes.

Hopefully that ends up turning green here, qqq down about 2.72, also kind of typical red candlestick you're, seeing by the deep pressure here. This is about to turn green. Here we go boom, qqq just turned green. That's a really good sign, uh that maybe we're going to get some by the dip action.

Uh, oh yep, but not at facebook, facebook actually rotating down. It's almost 25 down now and a snap also rotating down at close spotify trying to recover spotify uh down about 13 trying to go green right at the open. Nothing close i keep saying the close uh pinterest here. 11.16 trade desk is down 9, but also tentative here, toast down 8.4 shopify down 6.5 square recovering nice recovery right there into the open, roblox uh, trying to recover into the open good lemonade rotating down, not as low as we've been we've been as low as 26.

On this one and uh kramer has been on a roll lately. Oh no uh, owlette yeah. I thought that was weird in pre-market. It was up like seven percent and i'm like i don't see any news on it, so it now it's actually down four and a half percent.

It's a pre-market. Such a disaster, uh cloud flare down four and a half back down to about 95, not as low as what we've seen. We i mean we've gone to like 79 bucks. I want to say yeah matterport uh nice trying to push off a nice little rally here.

Uh you've got volatility up t-mobile rallying about uh 11. Here uh you've got arc, that's got ta, be it's got down about three percent here 3.43, but it's it's got a nice little rally coming in here, so you're getting some by the dip right now. Okay, the valuations are getting oh yeah, look at that by the dip on tesla, oh yeah, uh people enjoying those prices under 900 right now, qqq, therefore rotating up nicely uh and the spy is actually more flat, so you're getting some tech dip buying right now, even Paypal is no longer down that that three percent that we saw here, which is good, but i mean how many times have we seen it - the convictionless rallies end up getting sold and facebook is still still down about 24.6 percent, but it isn't getting substantially worse right Now snap is showing some greens uh spots, showing some greens it's actually i mean for how miserable that pre-market was. This isn't terrible.

I mean trade just gained like two and a half percent in a matter of a couple minutes here. Uh amazon is down at 28.61 and uh. It's it's trying to gain here as well, so we are getting some by the dippage here uh. It looks like a lot of damage done in the overnight leading to a lot of uh.

A lot of by the dipping here - good, let's see here - uh, okay, facebook now back down to 25, so uh that that recovery failed on facebook, we'll see if facebook ends up anchoring anything down, because we we know the first five minutes tend to be extremely volatile And we could go in either direction. Facebook unfortunately seems to be reiterating the anchor direction while spotify is trying to recover. You usually get institution shopping right at the open too, so this is uh some good. In my opinion, these are good signs of institutional dip.

Buying right at the get-go, it could be because of fund inflows. But who knows saying about 8.92 on tesla here see if these end up staying up? How about our runners today, because facebook keeps dragging down about about down about 25.4 right now, macy's in terms of green, i mean we got volatility. That's green, but oh uh you've got macy's, that's up like .75 att up a quarter. Uh, let's see if uh we ended up getting a move here on btc as well, and we'll check that by going over to ftx metkevin.com ftx us yeah, i mean not much not much of a real move here and it's probably because we're we're trading with a Spy over here, uh spy has been relatively flat.

Yeah see that okay spine now now trying to break down uh under the 50 fibonacci line. Here, let's try q-com here: okay, there you go nice little recovery on qualcomm; also another company that really didn't deserve to get destroyed. Uh i mean raised guidance by a billion dollars for for eps or for their bottom line. Basically i mean that's: it's just insane.

Uh, facebook continuing to worsen uh now down 25.7 25.8 uh percent - that's probably going to drag some of these gains that we're starting to see at uh the streaming services or the fintechs. Although trade desk is now only down 5.38, so you you're definitely getting dipline all right, we'll see what the suits are saying in just a second uh roblox backup. So it's a decent bounce for open. I mean for for how devastating the pre-market was.

This is not bad, even video right now. Look at that nice little bouncer on video, there's the qqq same style, bounce yeah. What do we have here robin hood, robin hood also trying to bounce up so far, let's see if we can get so far here there. We go yeah well see if we can actually say this is a firm by the way right here, affirm back to sixty dollars.

Nice move to the upside. So far here you go same thing. Trying to move up. Oh better verse just got the 12 month.

Membership badge, congratulations, okay, so decent decent bounce here, uh facebook is the only thing. That's really continuing to go into the toilet uh. It is now down about 26, so we've worsened by about a percent and a half here actually probably about two percent in just the last 10 15 minutes yeah. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be stopping but square amazon recovering from from the big pain of the day.

Uh, it does look like we're getting a lot more green right now we did have. We now have a full page of green over here uh dutch bros smile, direct expi, coming in with some higher moves. Penn national gaming just moved up. Seven percent.

That's crazy! We see what news is all right. Let me take a look here: penn national gaming. Let's see we'll look at what the suits are saying about the market broadly, but also pen, all right, so pen, ceo, recommend, you see portnoy's response to insider story more to come on portnoy in coming days. Comments on new insider story about barstool, founder uh, depend on portnoy misconduct.

Claims give this time to play out uh. Okay, this doesn't really seem like any kind of news yeah. Then you have. What else do we heal uh? We do have earnings today so before the market closed.

Oh well, then again they they actually reported today, so that that may be why, oh so they must be in their earnings call, that's probably why they move or are moving so must have been some enthusiasm here. Oh ralph lauren reported today as well. I think it'd be very interesting to see ralph lauren in terms of us also the supply chain issues just mostly trying to see what they're saying about it. Uh, let's see here global operating environment, highly dynamic, they say: okay uh.

Let's see here, oh ralph, lauren, better than expected revenue lifts forecast, says luxury demand drives revenue beat wow, that's good, so ralph lauren had a nice little beat okay after hours today, uh after hours we're going to see ooh wow what a big day, amazon, snapchat pinterest Ford activision blizzard gosh it's gon na have a lot of reading to do uh unity, sketchers, clorox bill.com, oh man, the software has just been getting killed. Uh, gopro, columbia, sportswear after hours can be fun. Okay, let's take a look at bond yields as well and see how things are moving here. Let me quickly look at bond deals and also inflation expectations.

So just quickly, let's see here ten year is and then we'll go five year five year break, even is what i like using for inflation by the way yeah ten years up a little bit it's up at about 1.837. So that's going to lead to a little bit of pressure on uh on tech, usually not always it doesn't have to be correlated it. Just frequently is the correlation is not and then you've got on the five year. You've got a break even right, now listed at 2.8 kind of stable and down over the last couple days, but kind of stable over the last month, so inflation expectations aren't necessarily really skyrocketing, which is good.

Okay, so uh facebook now a little bit less than 26 of a loss, but not much uh pinterest down about 8.5. That's a recovery, so you're definitely seeing some of these guys recover trade desk - and you know here we're about 10 minutes into market open. Now uh see if we can keep this enthusiasm up, shopify trade desk - these guys have been doing very nicely here. Let's see tesla tesla's only down about a percent, though you've really caught a limit here at about nine uh.

Nine hundred dollars apple down about a percent big deal, so five percent pounds here about point: nine yeah nominal, see how ford's doing pre-earnings since that's today, oh yeah, okay, four point: seven five to the upside all right and arc is recovering a little bit about 2.4 Yeah 2.6: oh yeah, look at that! That's a nice! Nice little run here. Let's see if this continues lots of pain here, uh, obviously priced in overnight. The big question is: can we just sustain some of this bounce back or are we going to get the same kind of trap rally where well now that prices went up more people have an opportunity to sell, and then they get out of the stock market? Uh we'll see so qqq sitting now at about 2.2 to the downside and spy is down about 1.17, though, look at that spy really bouncing off of the uh, the 450 here really refusing to close uh below it. With the exception of, i see one candlestick here in the pre-market, but otherwise we just wick down so not bad wonder if we can hold this or if we're going to start.

Seeing some more pain, facebook now chart wise seems to potentially be hitting a bottom uh, but there's some some limit to the rally back that we're starting to see it's a little bit of a rotation back there on amazon yeah. Oh look at here's! A trade desk trade desk doing quite well on the comeback. Okay, let's go see what other news we have. Okay, let's see here all righty, so bulk shipping rates.

Oh, that's, good! Bulk shipping rates extend slide on weak china demand. That's actually good. You want to see a lot of numbers start coming down faster, though productivity in u.s gains by most uh by most in more than a year. Also good news, let's take a look at bots - are overrunning crypto networks like solana as they hunt for profits.

Oh interesting, okay, let's take a look at some of these productivity numbers, u.s productivity surged last quarter by the most in more than a year reflecting a sharp acceleration economic output, while labor costs, uh growth cooled. Oh fourth, quarter. Non-Farm business, employee output per hour, increased 6.6 percent and annualized rate from the previous three months: okay, so productivity, different from participation, but productivity moving nicely doesn't surprise me that we would see some form of productivity moves to the upside uh, especially in in the holiday season. So we'll see if the december november october numbers end up just being an outlier but uh good, good productivity move, especially after a fall in the quarter before that yeah they even mention here.

Productivity can be extremely volatile. I'm not sure that i would look much here at uh at productivity, but this is interesting. There's a positive here. A slowdown in china's steel production is curbing demand for bulk ships to transport iron ore, driving a steady decline in global freight rates from october's peak.

That's very good doesn't necessarily mean inflation is going to come down anytime soon, but it is good to start seeing some of our our indicators show some level of cooling uh. Keep this in mind, though, also look at look at how volatile chart here is for uh conf freight rates uh when we got this big spike over here with the delta, and we had a spike here with omicron, and so sometimes these moves down could just be These little changes we see here, but if we keep remaining high, it's not as great. Oh, let's listen to this news. Breaking news.

Our january final read on market services and composite pmi. We take the mid month, read and toss it. So 50.9 on services now turns into 51.2. That is the final read sequentially following december, which was 57.6.

This is the softest read since july of 2020. On the composite side, 51.1 uh versus a final read last month of 57.0, the 50.8 mid-month read, gets lost. Something that's really important to remember about these. These reads is anything that indicates a slowdown in consumer activity.

People are assuming is good because it means that inflation might cool right. Not necessarily a slowdown in consumer activity could mean that we end up in this weird crossover point where inflation is still really high, while consumer activity slows, and then you have a shorter period of potentially stagflation or a market where the economy is stagnating or slowing and Stagnating, at the same time as being in an environment of high inflation and if there's a lag with uh consumers and a lag with when we actually get inflation data, then you could have a little bit of a perfect storm, not so ideal. But hopefully we don't go anywhere near that uh. You know those sorts of fears, let's uh, let's see how markets are moving right now this is rivien uh, we're being rotating a little bit down.

Okay spy, not loving the uh, the the buybacks here or the buy-ins. So spy now rotating right back down now down about 1.5. That has the qqq. Unfortunately, also rotating down looks like the by the dipping is uh kind of slowing a little bit yeah.

Now. What we really want is supply chain issues and cost to start inflecting down, while the economy still remains strong, that's ideal, because if prices start coming down, while you have a strong economy, you go into a disinflationary recovery, best freaking case scenario. So that's really what we want price is down and uh and consumer spending in the economy strong, very important all right. So, let's see here lucid yeah lucid's up about a quarter of a percent yeah facebook's still down about 25 snap 19 spotify 14..

We'll see we get some more uh earnings today, again amazon today, snapchat pinterest, facebook, activision, blizzard unity, columbia, sportswear these - these are some big big companies reporting today, uh rivia not happy at all rotating down. No we're not all-time lows here. On riv uh see we hit 50 on jan 28th, which is quite wild that we saw this kind of decline. Let's go to uh trade desk here, intraday yeah, starting to starting to u-turn a little bit here, yeah.

Let's take a look at btc here, also uh. Honestly kind of holding on yeah we've we've got our uh. It looks like sort of an intraday lid here that we had about 36, 8 and uh. You know trend isn't horrible for today for btc, but we did have a little bit of a larger sell-off.

Last night: hmm, oh yeah, all right! Let's listen to this for a moment, significant headwinds where 2022, our 2022 revenue forecast is so, if you kind of aggregate the changes that we're seeing across ios, that's that's that's sort of the order of magnitude. We can't be precise on this. It's an estimate. Um, you know, we've got ranges on the impact to our business, but we think it's a you know it's a substantial uh.

You know the substantial headwind to work our way through and obviously we're working hard to mitigate those impacts and continue to make ads. You know relevant and effective uh for uh for users. That's met a cfo talking about headwinds from ios and by significant jimmy means about 10 billion dollars this year right, and that was little uh yeah, so i mean headwinds geez uh. One thing to note is the market: is: is slowly rotating down uh uh intraday! Here we did see or have seen at least this week, this tendency of the market to rally into the close to where we have a really volatile first 10 15 minutes, and then we get some kind of rally into the close right now, unfortunately uh you know You you are seeing a little bit of a pullback down, so we'll see uh if uh the spy ends up closing below this 450 line.

I think, is a little bit of an indicator. Uh facebook's still trying to recover, but snapchat is not snapchat. Now down 20. It's worsening spotify, worsening on the day.

Pinterest uh has capped out on its sort of recovery. Here rivien is, is really rotating down lower than where it was at open here, same kind of rotations happening at uh square. It's amazing how similar a lot of these stocks operate: amazon etsy etsy now lower than where it was at open, uh paypal now lower than where it was at open paypal's at 127. Folks, we have not seen this price since almost february of 2020..

I think the pricing we saw there was about 124., so about three dollars away from february 2020 pricing and there's no way these companies aren't better than what they were. Then the problem is. We were in a relatively bullish environment in in 19 right, so there's there's always this possibility of of having a discounted value beyond those levels, since you might be comparing a bear market to a bull market, hopefully not yeah. It's always important to remember that a recession is the worst case scenario for for everyone, because everything goes down.

Uh right, everyone's income gets hurt, everything gets, hurt, youtubers get hurt. You know, people like oh kevin. You know you're probably excited about prices going down, not really because if we do end up going to a recession, what what happens advertising revenue goes down. The sponsorships like medkevin.com ftx, us uh, you know sign up for them to trade with cryptocurrencies those sorts of sponsorships.

Go away uh and uh. You know it's true of every industry, so you generally, you want to stay away from a recession at all costs, but we just don't have that confidence. That j-pal is going to come bail us out mostly because him and christine lagarde over at the ecb, have to uh deal with all this. All this inflation they created when they printed so fast.

It was supposed to be transitory. We were supposed to just absorb it and be happy dang. You yeah well anyway, uh so cheesecake factory is actually up point. Eight percent dutch bros point: seven percent.

Look at this win: macy's dutch bros, all las vegas sands rotating to the upside about one percent. We saw a lot of these companies uh we're down about one percent in in the morning pre-market here. So a nice little bit of recovery, still mostly red, though on the day really low, breadth in terms of green uh spy is look how stable the spy is sitting right here at 450.. It's nice that we're off of that 4 30 disaster and the fact that, with these crazy facebook earnings the fact that we have not plummeted through uh the 450 support line, it's actually somewhat bullish that we're we're staying up.

You know here's here's tesla trying to recover as well sitting at 8.99. If anything, it's it's uh. It's got a nice chart. Intraday here had some pain in pre-market.

Facebook also seems to be slowly recovering here. It seems to actually be accelerating right here so you're getting some by the dip here. Uh square still rotating down, though about seven percent rivien kind of bottoming there at 60.. All right, let's go ahead and take a look at uh um, go see what the suits are saying quickly, all right, yeah, a lot of kicking the can down the road until march.

That is true. Robbie talking about christine lagod kicking the can down the road all right. Let's see what the suits are saying. All right: uh we have hong kong's lustre fades as china, smothers free press, yikes.

Hmm, let's see goldman touts options. Trade netting 15 on wild earnings day see here popular volatility. Trade on wall street is netting historic gains as the likes of facebook and spotify misfire. What's ah the straddle uh yeah.

So the straddle is, when you make uh, when you make a nice bullish or bearish bet, it works terribly. If the stock does nothing uh after hours, so like you, get an earnings, miss or beat, and the stock does like a qualcomm where it's like, plus or minus two percent, you get burned, uh both ways but uh. You pull off a nice straddle on something like facebook. Sure you'll lose all your money on the call, but you make it kill it.

On the put. It's actually not a terrible idea when you have this sort of volatility to to play earnings with straddles. Maybe we'll set some up in the course member live later. I think that might be fun, but uh goldman is is uh and these are these.

Are i've been talking about straddles for a couple weeks now? I haven't done any, but uh this this. It's probably it's they're, probably right. This is probably the market to do it in anyway. It's basically buying a call option and a put option.

So bank of england hikes rates as four officials vote for a bigger increase ooh face straddle exactly uh; okay, this just uh just coming. In now, the bank of england has uh or increased its key interest rate in a bid to contain the fastest inflation in three decades, with some policymakers unexpectedly seeking a more aggressive response to rising prices. The monetary policy committee voted to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points to half a percent on thursday. Four out of the nine member panel pushed for a 50 basis, point increase, which would have been unprecedented since the central bank gained independence from the government in 1997..

So the bank of england, here uh worth noting that we have not seen a you, know: 50 basis point increase in the uh in the united states fed rate since uh 2000. Hmm. What is this uh? Okay? We looks like we have some potential testimony beginning on fed appointments that can be kind of interesting. You know to get some insights on so congressional testimony by by some of the new fed board members just to see what the v their views are on, how hawkish they are on inflation.

So we want to pay attention to that. Nintendo cuts switch outlook again on supply logistics. Jam sony drops after disappointing sales and outlook yikes what is happening. Uh sony sony fell as much as 8.6 in tokyo on thursday, after cutting playstation 5 sales forecast and announcing weaker expected results from its gaming division.

Uh, it's going to be very tough for sony to better these earnings numbers next term, even if there are no structural changes occurring in our industry with it's far more extensive streaming and subscription service likely to be launched by next quarter, we see divisional profitability coming okay. Let's see here, that would be an interesting call to look into as well so sony not super happy and then nintendo kind of switched. Sales outlook now expects to sell 23 million switch units in the fiscal year ending in march down from 24 million wow 24 million uh switches. That's wild start a gaming channel yeah.

I think we're all gon na need to to play video games just to uh, get it to escape reality for a little bit. All right, let's see here, how are things moving? Let's go broadly spy, no okay, breaking the line a little bit here, not not great, not great, to see the line break qqq stable, actually, not horrible, uh tesla see if we broke nine, yet nope, trying to and of course, facebook's still down about 25.3 incredible how How relatively accurate the pre-market pricing was for facebook, uh amazon's, now rotating down more pinterest seems to be about stable amazon. Now down about 6.54 twilio blend labs etsy, these guys rotating down a little bit. Oh, what's cnbc had to say orders and durable goods.

Ism services is now out 59.9. It is a beat we're expecting a number around 59 and a half, and that follows an upwardly revised last month from 62 to 62.3 62.0. It's current read! Well it it! It isn't that it's the highest in any near-term fashion, because november was the post covert high at 68., so durable goods or things like cars and washing machines and such and so uh. I don't know why he says it was: oh, oh, okay! Well, they put that's weird they're talking about durable goods, but they have services up on screen, that's confusing, but anyway, if we have a beat on durables, that's that's actually somewhat good, because we've been seeing numbers on those full uh, especially after the new york fed survey.

Uh of consumers expecting to spend less on durables, going forward face rotating down a little bit here. Let's take a look here: yeah, look at that unfortunate sort of u-turn here on the markets. Uh same thing here on nvidia this uh or arrival here, let's try to click on a video there. We go nvidia same kind of u-turn.

Here, palantir same thing: look at look at how quickly some of these rallies are being sold off. It's really quite frustrating uh. It's it it's just something that uh it is. I think, honestly, there are a lot of people.

You know what i i, if possible - and i know this is hard to do because it's a scenario but do me a favor, give me the the best most unbiased answer to this poll uh. If the market uh rallied ten percent, would you sell or huddle okay and the reason for that is, i think there are a lot of folks on the sidelines and i don't know i want to see in this poll here. I think there are folks on the sidelines, and these are anonymous right. I think there are a lot of folks on the sidelines who are like if the market rallies.

I just want to give give me another 10. Let me get back to certain levels and i'm selling uh if the market rallied 10 broadly, would you sell or huddle? So i'm throwing that poll in right now everything assume everything was up 10 today, okay, like assume we literally looked at this, and every single stock is up 10 uh. Would you sell or huddle uh, like literally tomorrow, everything is up ten percent, so before march everything's up ten percent? Do you sell or huddle uh? Okay, so we'll see we'll let that survey run nominal little recovery here continuing on meta, i'm looking at sparklines, though, and just doing a quick scroll through sparklines any of the runs have kind of started, slowing a little bit and uh. It looks like if anything we're seeing.

Ah then, the pfizer's actually not doing terribly pfizer's got a little bit of a nice recovery. Yeah a little push here and uh otherwise does look like it's. It's mixed robin hood, uh dave and buster's slightly red here, tesla's still knocking on the door of that 900 hasn't broken through yet seeing some things: tick down here: delta airlines, ticking down southwest geo group. These are stocks and boeing.

These were stocks that actually had turned green there. For a moment, uh like lucid, lucid, was green. It's now red by about one and a half percent uh, so definitely see some pain, return to the market, carnival cruise lines redfin these all down about two percent uh and some worsening happening here at spotify. Look at that i mean this is just a terrible, terrible chart uh a lot of folks complaining suggesting that this is karma for rogan others saying this is overblown, but you got both sides here, mp, materials, folks, what a fall from grace uh temporarily, i mean the Thing ran to 53, it's back to 35, which is sort of more of a longer run average here, but uh boy.

There was a lot of enthusiasm there for a moment. Okay, let's look at the votes just going to end the poll right here. 42 of you would actually say, sell and 58 of you would say huddle. That's quite wild.

I mean that's. Nearly 50 50 uh in in terms of people saying sell versus buy uh. You know, that's, that's quite a shift. If, if you know, if the market rallied ten percent, because i think there are going to be more of you, hodling waiting for for some form of a little bit of a rally back, and that makes sense, but that i think could explain why we're seeing in Part, it's not a perfect survey, obviously, but why we see these little runs ding you hit a limit and then you get these little sell downs.

We've seen this consistently same thing even over here on trade desk consistently since december. Over and over and over again, we run we hit a line. Ding start selling uh facebook continuing to recover, though i have to give him credit down: uh 24 right now, uh. It was down about 23 percent of pre-market and it's uh.

It's it's uh! Still down more than that, but uh is, is on the uptrend here after opening all right. Well, take a look broadly at the indices, see if there are any other suit comments here: okay, spy coming back above that line, bullish, bullish for spy and qqq rotating up a little bit. That means tesla's, probably over 8900. Yes, it is look at that.

Tesla rally. There look at that 907 on tesla right now, nice little move to the upside about a third of a percent, so tesla's probably helping pull some of these indices up along with slightly less pain at some other stock. So that's good yeah, a little rotation there, upstart affirm arc zoom all right, we'll see what the volatility is like. So far, though, i think the biggest thing to do is watch that four hour chart.