Hey this is tom, and let's talk about the ukrainian russian conflict and how it may potentially affect the stock market. I've been getting a lot of questions about it, i'm assuming because i'm russian russia did mobilize a hundred thousand troops to the border, but i just in my mind i feel like it's a flex and i'll. Tell you why. So the thing is that you have to understand that russia, before 1990 and after 1990, is a completely different country.

Now the pre-soviet union collapsed. Russia was a powerhouse to be considered. They could, you know, swing their weight around and basically make happen. Post 1990, russia was in irrelevant country and as such, got very little clout and respect, and i think it really drove people insane over there now.

Essentially, even though russia had no clout no poll, no leverage, they claimed that they had a promise from the western world that none of the former russian countries that used to be part of the civic you know, will ever join nato. Because you know russia didn't want nato on their back porch. What eventually happened is that years went by russia remained completely irrelevant and cloudless and powerless, and in 1997 they claimed they got another promise, basically reiterating that first promise. In 1991.

Now every western country in existence has basically completely denied these allegations. I mean the west or the western part of the world, the us and such nobody that actually matters have ever confirmed these so-called promises that were given to russia. So nobody really knows what the hell happened there and poland, czech republic and hungary joined the eu in 1999.. Now that scared russia, but if that scared, russia and that mattered, nothing because in 1999 russia was still a powerless.

You know basically cloudless country. So in 2004 the west pushed even more and they basically said well everybody's in all the baltic states, romania, bulgaria, slovakia, slovenia, if you start with the slav you're in any slav slovekistan whatever so everybody is then so in 2004, pretty much. Russia basically was completely isolated. Their former allies are now part of the eu part of the west, and what ended up happening is these tensions eventually led by the way in the? I don't know you guys remember this, but in 2008 russia actually invaded georgia, which was an unthinkable act, and they basically did this to prevent georgia from joining nato, which was quite successful.

But the west have learned from this, and now basically we know that russia is capable of doing like this and we've seen how it played out in georgia. So it's not going to work again, they're not going to surprise sneak on the country. Besides the point i mean, i love georgia. I've been there many times beautiful beaches, beautiful people, beautiful food.

Everything is amazing, an amazing country, but it's not ukraine. You have to understand ukraine's importance in this whole chess game, because russia is currently providing about 25 of the european gas consumption and gas in europe in winter is very, very important government will fall if gas does not flow. It's quite simple and quarter of the gas. That's in the eu is coming from russia, 80 of that is coming through the ukraine.

So the ukraine's importance in this whole chess game, that's being played on top of its head by different superpowers, is much more immense than georgia. With all due respect, i love georgia, but it is true. Ukraine is being used in this game, which is unfortunate another time where ukraine is being used. So basically, after putin did this whole shenanigan in georgia.

He decided that you know, since he couldn't just invade russia. So they decided to completely collapse this whole kind of uh, western friendship that was being created in the ukraine and they started. You know creating conflict inside ukraine, starting meddling inside ukraine to basically create a civil war which they've successfully done. We had the whole crimea crisis, a quasi-civil war in the ukraine between the russian pro-russian and pro-ukrainian, and that was in 2014 and russia, i think, was hoping that this thing would collapse whatever that was left of the ukrainian government and then russia could easily swoop in And put their own puppet government, you know a playbook from the old soviet union that didn't work.

They actually regrouped gathered themselves dust themselves off and selected a pro-western government, so that did not work and obviously russia is seeing the ukraine as the final frontier before the west, completely just surrounds them in the chokehold all around and they're. Basically pretty much. You know completely. All alone, with no influence so now, basically, russia unable to disable as ukraine from within and the crimea stand, didn't work so now, they're, basically saying well um we're going to invade ukraine and they're shouting and they're beating their chest.

100 000 border troops on the border, but neither side really wants war here you have to understand. Russia does not. War. Sorry does not want a war in the ukraine.

The us and europe definitely don't want a war in ukraine, because what will happen if an all-out war erupts is everybody will lose. I mean that's true for every war, but this one specifically is going to be much much worse, because what will happen is that um ukraine is basically going to be demolished, which is obviously not good, but even worse, the entire eu is going to be left without Gas, because russia ain't about to be providing gas to the people who will be fighting against them and in that case, there's going to be a major energy crisis in the eu and i don't think it could be easily solved. I think you could alleviate some of the problem if you start importing gas from the arab countries and australia - maybe, but it's not even going to come close to solving the problem. It's going to alleviate the horrendous crisis energy crisis that europe will suffer in the winter.

So that's going to be horrendous for europe for russia, essentially, that's what this would be pretty much proof to everything that they've been denying. So russia have been denying that they're using their monopolistic power with gas in europe to leverage political claims. They're basically saying well we're not using gas to basically force our own will on europe and the world and by the way i don't know if you notice, germany actually pulled out out of helping ukraine because they need russian gas. So, in fact, we know this is happening, but if russia actually cuts gas to the eu because of this war, that will happen then pretty much the eu will have to solve this problem.

They basically will say: well, these guys who sell us 25 of our gas capacity are volatile and they're they're, basically willing to you, know, shut it off to get back at us, so we need to find different solutions and they're going to start buying oil from the Arab world, from australia from the us or whatever, there's going to be new supply chains built because it will be proof that russia will shut it off. If a push comes to shove. And it's going to basically hurt russia because their clientele will lose trust in them. And will look for alternative measures to buy gas that will not be interrupted in any conflict.

So there's nobody here that really wants war. So for russia, this whole thing is just delivered. You know a lever to pull on the pressure on europe and the in the us. The only thing russia wants here and that i'm not saying this lightly.

They want a lot, but russia is using this to get what they want and what they want is things i don't think the u.s can give. So they want the u.s to promise that ukraine would never ever ever join nato. They want to promise that none of the other neighboring former soviet union countries will ever join nato and they wanted the us to promise that they would not have any troops in any of the former soviet union countries that are surrounding russia. Now.

Obviously, dues can't agree to that. Russia can't back off of their claims, um, which and also nobody wants war classic mexican standoff now, there's two options here: either everybody starts shooting and everybody dies classical. You know mexican standoff result a tarantino movie essentially or everybody backs off, and they find a way to make it seem as if each side won when they literally got very small amounts of their demands. So i'm thinking in this situation, it's much more logical for russia and the us to find a solution that makes each other look good in their own country, basically climb down from the ladder and find a solution where maybe they promised that ukraine doesn't join nato for X amount of years, or that the u.s promises to reduce its forces in the in the form of so there's going to be some sort of a compromise.

I think i don't think they're going to go all at war, but again in the mexican standoff. All you need is for one doofus to fire their gun, and then everything goes to so i honestly don't know how will this impact the market? I think in quite a bad way, i think energy prices because of this tension will go up and in any case of volatility and instability, energy prices go up, especially in a country like ukraine, and i just explained how important it is. However, long term. Once this thing is solved, there's no material underlying issues with with the supply chain in in eastern europe and eu with gas.

So i think long term. I don't see this as being some sort of an accelerator for a massive global energy pricing problem, but in the short term we might see serious spikes in energy prices and i think the world is facing a much bigger problem once they solve this. You know ego flex whatever it is a massive supply chain, inflation there's a lot of issues to work out. This is a temporary thing, i believe they'll settle.

But let's see what happens, let me know below. If you agree with my theory or not, you know just sharing my opinion. I know it's a little bit different than my usual videos, but you know if you hate it. Let me know if you love it.

Let me know: no, if you want i'll, do more see you in the next video.