This video is brought to you by titan and my programs on building your wealth, both linked down below coupon code expiring in two days now in this video, we need to talk about some buying that i have down now to the bumbling idiots and morons, who don't Understand strategy: they might think that this was a flip-flop, a change of direction, fomo a clown move and for those people go ahead and leave a dislike and get the hell out of here, not my problem to everybody else. Let me explain my thesis for exactly which companies i bought and why i bought them all right, here's, the thing uh and and also for full transparency. I only bought these within the last two hours so trying to be as fast as possible here: okay, trying to maintain that goal of being the most transparent trader, slash investor. When i'm investing i'm trading right now, i'm making a bet, it's a trade.

It's not investment! All right, let's get into it! Oh man, you all know my birthday's in two days, which means the coupon code on building your wealth with the uh courses linked down below, does expire in two days, so check that out all right. Let's talk about this, so here here's the thing: uh, we have a situation where the federal reserve meets in a few hours and there are a few expected results. It's also important to remember that we have a quite ugly declining stimmy curve, so there are definitely risks to being extremely long. The market, in my opinion or being all in i'm not all in right, now take a look at this.

This right here is what i call the stimi curve. The stemi curve is essentially on the left side. We have this explosion in stimulus here. Let me highlight that as we go through it, there we go uh.

This is the explosion of stimulus right here and then we have the weaning office stimulus, less stimulus checks, the expiration of ppp money, unemployment benefits, expiring, child tax credit coming in, but then expiring, child tax credit really just offset the uh, the unemployment and - and i feel Like it kind of gave us a little bit of a of a flat period here, but uh we're going to get this break and then we're going to lump some child tax credit, which is kind of going to be seen as a uh sort of single stimulus Check that'll come in through about march and april uh, and then stimulus will be gone. Uh then we'll also get to the reduction or runoff by the federal reserve of their assets, which which could remove liquidity from the market so long run. We still have uh risks. Uh substantial risks in the market in terms of how the market might react to this uh, declining uh monetary, uh and fiscal stimulus.

So that's pretty important to remember uh. While we remember this, though the market right now is trying to price in as much as possible. The events that are expected to transpire today and the events that are expected to transpire on march 16th, the guidance that we get from jerome powell today, should provide us some insight into what's. Well, obviously, what is going to happen today, but uh? What is expected to happen on march 16th and even going forward questions should be extremely pointed to give us the answers that we need and based on the latest research i've done.

I i believe that today is a very hedged event and so is march 16th, and that could have led to a lot of the selling pressure that we've seen now. I'm still not buying my mid or large caps back instead of making a bet on small caps and i'll tell you exactly which ones in a moment which i keep in mind. I made this clear that i was going to make a bet on small caps when we had our beer with kevin video. I believe that was sunday night.

So do you check that out and fact check me, but anyway, here are the scenarios that i believe we're going to face going forward, so the scenarios are very simple. First, i believe that the federal reserve has the potential not the likelihood of uh in of announcing the completion of the taper and then an interest rate interest rate hike. I believe that this is approximately a one percent chance uh, so in other words, it would be a shock to the market, and i would expect the market would crash. Uh see unexpected equals crash s p, whatever qqq.

These could all go down. Four to five uh. Four to seven percent, but i don't expect this. The taper now is a possibility.

Oh we completed the taper and we're not hiking rates. This, i believe, is a 5 possibility. Then we have the possibility here of at the bottom jerome powell coming out and just canceling all rate hikes, which i think is relatively unrealistic and unlikely. So i've also placed this at approximately a one percent chance of happening more likely somewhere between 20 and 25 percent and then 70 and 75.

One of these middle options will occur and uh one of the middle options would be guiding for a march 16th taper completion and possibly a double or providing some form of schedule of rate hikes to get to four three to four rate hikes this year. I think this would be the worst of the two middle cases, but it's also starting to get priced in. I think, what's more likely, though, is right here, which is that the interest rate, uh hike, will be pretty much cemented for march 16th, with a 0.25 percent hike 0.25. That's 25 basis points.

The taper will be done by march 16th as expected. So this is my base case scenario here now, because i believe this is a hedged event. I believe there's a possibility that shorts are going to unwind. After this event, i could be completely wrong.

Please don't follow me off what could be jumping off of a bridge or jumping out of a plane without a parachute. I i have no idea. What's going to happen, this is a trade, so i've decided to start purchasing various different small caps and the small caps that i'm buying i'm going to list right now. I have bought some options, though mostly shares in the following stocks.

Uh. I want to be very, very clear: this is again risky. Small caps could sell off substantially more and i'm sorry if your small cap is not on this. It's not my responsibility to worry about what stocks y'all are investing in uh.

My responsibility is to myself and to transparency to you, because that's what i've promised and huddling those amc shares, which i still huddle before i talk about exactly what i bought, which course members are already aware of, join that link down below. If you have not yet we've got a message from our sponsor titan: let's take a listen. Thank you today, sponsor titan. It takes a lot of time to keep up with everything going on in the stock market.

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Totally for free zero fees - and you can now join the smarter way to invest with titan and all it takes, is clicking that link down below or going to titan.com kevin and a hundred dollars, and you can get started. Remember that's titan.com kevin for zero fees. I bought uh a ton of lemonade uh this morning, yeah thirty one dollars, it's it's, it's a steal, hud eight mining and backed holdings bkkt. I think these have sold off substantially.

Obviously, they've come down with btc uh, but i do expect a strong crypto reversal. This year i bought uh, cardano solana, luna and um tasos. Then i bought some of you gon na laugh. But again it's a trade, tattooed chef shift technologies, sofi nano dimensions and i don't think there's an s on that one, but it doesn't matter and uh laser, which is l-a-z-r.

That's luminaire. I am now 45 in the market on this trade. I am uh. Maybe out of total value in the stock market and crypto, like 15 exposed to options uh crypto, i'm in about 1.2 mil.

I have uh two short positions. One is on rk, which is doing absolutely terribly, because arc is up the other one's on lucid. I did take delivery of a lucid yesterday by the way uh and then what else? What have i not said? Oh yeah, yeah uh, so i'm still 55 cash uh. I am going to keep that cash because if we end up getting a shock to the downside or not, i'm gon na just end up being patient over the next three to four months and i'll end up uh buying the dip on other stuff.

If things keep going down, if things rally like a firm robin hood, tesla or whatever, then i think these small caps will rally as well, but i think these small caps might actually be first back and the reason i think the small caps will be first back Is because they're so shorted that i think when the shorts unwind, because we got clarity and uncertainty is somewhat removed from our market uh. Then then there could be a a reward to essentially these here now uh. They know they're gon na be some people who are confused they're like wait, a minute kevin like you were saying, buy and then you sold and now you're buying again like isn't this flip floppy i mean i, i don't think so, because my goal was to take Losses - and i just want to be as transparent as possible again i'm trying my best. My goal was to take my gains that i had on tesla and wash them with losses see i had about three million dollar three to four million dollars of trading gains.

Like actual profit, i realized last year: that's trading gains, that's you know, buy low, sell high, like i'm gon na, have to pay taxes on three to four million dollars of gains last year on on just trading gains uh and remember every single trade i make whether It's long or short, or whatever, every single trade i make is posted in that stocks and psychology of money group linked down below we talked about. We already did a course. Member live stream earlier today, talking about uh these these positions and and uh. My rationale, things like that and i answered questions and so on, but anyway in this year i am taking advantage of the fact that a firm and robin hood are down a lot and i'm using those losses to offset large gains that i have in tesla.

I'm still going to be way up, because the tesla gains are way way in excess of the losses on like uh, robin hood or a firm and uh. I am going to also oh i'm going to buy a little bit of matterport too. So i'm going to have a wash sale on matterport, but that's okay. I've calculated that my tax liability is probably going to be somewhere around uh.

It's actually ended. It probably going to end up being less than expected, especially with the strategy. Probably uh only enough to pay taxes on like three unwashed uh of of gains, which is not bad and especially, if i follow through with the strategy and then, if we get a nice rebound, then uh, then hopefully small caps move first, i could take some profits Here or take the other cash i have, and once i have confidence that uh the federal reserve, uh fears are over, the hike fears are over i'll, go back to all in on the market. Now i want to be clear that i went from being about eight million dollars in margin to now being 55 cash and that's why i'm making this this trade here on small caps, which could be very, very risky.

But i believe that they have an outsized potential to return gains quicker than the mid and large caps, so i actually need less exposure to them. In my opinion, to potentially have a similar rate of return. Now i have a bunch of extra cash on the sidelines and margin. Dare i touch it again and i've never been margin called i'll, be clear about them, then i can go buy.

My faves back, probably after my wash sale period, is over uh. It wouldn't matter on robinhood, but sorry it wouldn't matter on tesla, though i could buy tesla tomorrow, like if it tanks tomorrow, i might buy tennis tomorrow, um if it tanks after earnings so we'll see anyway. These are all my thoughts, so thank you so much for watching this video. I appreciate it uh! Don't blindly follow me if you want more information on my programs, click the link down below check those out, and thank you so much for watching the video we'll see in the next one.

Bye.