Have got to know the following updates that just came out right before the federal reserve meeting coming up, let's get right into them, quick mention that this is an example of an alert that i just sent out on friday. It is a 1.1 million dollars short. I took out 500 contracts on the qqq. It is up 500, 000 uh, that's over 48 uh and folks.

Every single time i make a move. I send the alert in my stocks in psychology money program link down below there's a coupon code expiring in four days check it out no guarantees you're going to make money, and i don't encourage people to follow my trades. The reason i post all of my notifications is just to give you an idea of my personal sentiment in terms of which direction the market is going, and i can be totally wrong, especially on the short term. Sometimes it works, and hopefully it works out more often than it doesn't hey.

Everyone meet kevin here, so we urgently need to talk about the stock market, because today has been a disastrous days. The indices have swung between negative two percent to negative four percent, and you know what happens when we cross certain thresholds. Like seven percent, we start hitting stock market circuit breakers, yeah, the same kind of circuit breakers that we hit way back in march of 2020, and so folks we got to have a discussion when all of a sudden tesla's down nine percent in a day, smaller stocks, Like neo are down 13 on arrival was down at one point as much as 26. In one day on no news, we've got to talk about a really critical and urgent warning about the stock market and it has to do with the big old bailout that everybody is expecting from the federal reserve.

But before i talk about the federal reserve, it's important that we talk about none other than joe biden, see joe biden today has made it very clear once again in very hawkish tweets that he plans on dealing with inflation one way or another. Unfortunately, these messages have really become an empty threat, because joe biden's way of dealing with inflation is into jerome powell. I hate to say it, but that's pretty much. All he can do is call up jerome powell and try to pressure jerome powell to stop the madness.

Now, technically, the federal reserve is not supposed to be influenced by politics, but let's be real. We all know that ash is up there. Okay, look: inflation is a massive problem for joe biden and i'm going to talk about the federal reserve and something critical that you need to know about. The federal reserve bailout in just a moment: okay, whether it's coming when it's coming.

All of that in just a moment: okay, first, you got to know that inflation is a massive problem for joe biden. Now you might not care if it's a big problem for joe biden, because maybe you don't like joe biden, but you got ta know if it's a big problem for him, because you're paying more money at the pump, it's bad for him politically, which makes it really Hard for democrats to win in november, i expect them to lose in november, and it's more likely that we end up with a republican president in 2024, but on top of this think about this folks, when you have inflation, this is some of these are some of The things to consider when you have inflation problems for joe biden when you have inflation, you kill wage growth, see every president wants to say i created jobs. I did a great job, creating jobs in america and people make more money under my presidency. Every president wants to be able to say that, unfortunately, according to the last report from the bureau of labor statistics, we had 4.7 wage growth, which is good until you factored in inflation.

As soon as you factored in inflation, wages actually fell 2.4. Now. Sometimes this is a little hard to understand so think about this relatively imagine. Somebody said: hey, i'm paying you a hundred dollars this year and next year i'll pay you a hundred and four dollars and seventy cents.

That sounds great right, positive, making more money. But what? If somebody then came to you and said, oh wait, just kidding we're not paying you 104.70 we're actually now only paying you 97.60. That's the same thing as a minus 2.4. It's a massive issue and it is a terrible problem for a president to have to deal with because, quite frankly, they're relatively powerless, especially when they have a slow moving congress that can't deal with chip shortages and bottlenecks faster.

All they have is executive action and really trying to pester the federal reserve, who can really quickly run the reversing printers and try to vacuum up money in the economy, but now wait a minute wait a minute folks. Why would the federal reserve continue to be hawkish if the stock market is falling? I mean look folks. The nasdaq according to finance.google.com is down 15.19 year-to-date and the s p 500 is down 10.36. Like wait a minute.

Would the federal reserve really dare continuing to tighten the market if the stock market is falling bad news? The answer is yes, because here's the reality, the federal reserve's job - is not to bail out the stock market. The federal reserve has two really important jobs. Number one is maximum employment, and this is not 100 employment. It's just their degree of what they believe is full employment.

What the economy can sustain, depending on the current levels of labor force participation, there's a limit to how much the fed can really do here. The federal reserve believes they've already achieved number one. The second thing the federal reserve has to do is maintain stable prices and that we have been failing at substantially. Inflation has been out of control, gas prices are out of control, food prices, meat prices are out of control, use cars, rents, you name it it's out of control and the current measures of inflation that we use are really bad at actually determining how much, for example, Rent inflation we have, and yet housing makes up one third of how much inflation we actually report.

So if housing inflation takes a six month, delay to actually show up it takes six months for rent increases to actually show up in inflation. We could continue to have pressures of inflation build for months going forward now. How do i know that the federal reserve does not give a crap about your stock prices because look at what they say right here. The staff noted the federal reserve noted that asset valuations remained high, generally high relative to historic norms, while equity prices, aka stock prices continued to increase, supported by strong earnings expectations and high risk appetite.

Okay, that is them saying very, very clearly that hey, we think stock prices are high right now, and the stock prices aren't actually being supported by really good fundamentals, they're being supported by high earnings expectations and high risk appetite. So, in other words, they're saying hey, stock prices are high, not because businesses are doing better, but because people think that businesses will do better, but they're also speculating more on the belief that that's going to be true, but folks it gets worse over here. What do you have? A few participants also cited. A number of factors representing potential vulnerabilities to the financial system, quote these included elevated asset valuations prevailing widely across asset classes.

So the fed is telling you that stock prices are high based on people's expectations and not necessarily reality. The fed's also telling you that stock prices are high because people are willing to take more risk, not because reality is better. Then the fed is also telling us that a big vulnerability to the financial system is quote elevated asset valuations prevailing widely across asset classes. So in other words the fed's telling you very crystal clearly our job is to deal with maximum employment, which we think we've done.

Then we've got to deal with inflation, which we're failing at and we've got to make sure that we limit financial vulnerabilities in the system if high risk and speculation and high asset prices are a vulnerability. And if dealing with inflation reduces asset prices, then dealing with inflation and dropping the stock market's prices is actually a good thing in the eyes of the fed, which i know this is insane to think about, because in march of 2020, jerome powell came to the rescue He came to the rescue for a solid year almost a year. It wasn't really until february of 2021 when we're all like it's okay, it's okay stock market's starting to fall, but don't worry, jay pals coming out to talk and all of a sudden he started having a little bit of a hawkish tune and all of a sudden, The stock market dropped on that tech started selling off in february of 2021, because jerome powell, all of a sudden, was a little bit more hawkish yeah we're seeing that now on steroids, and i expect it to continue to get worse. The federal reserve is not one to change its mind quickly.

Look how long it took them to change their mind on inflation is transitory. Now, maybe you think, oh but hey. If stock prices are going down. Maybe that means inflation's no longer transitory, right.

Wishful thinking wishful thinking, i am wishing that inflation will go down soon. I really hope inflation goes down soon, but listen to data that literally came out today. This data came up today, which is the day before the federal reserve's meeting for january starts, and then we'll hear what the results are of this meeting on wednesday at 11 am i'll, of course, be streaming it anyway. Here's what was stated quote the median expected year ahead: growth in every day, essential spending increased from five point: two percent in august to five point four percent in december, its highest reading since the beginning of the series in august of 2015., the median expected growth in Non-Essential spending instead declined to 2.5 percent in december from 2.6 in august, while overall households expected a bigger increase in overall spending.

In the next 12 months, the average reported likelihood of making large purchases over the next four months decreased in december with respect to vacations home repairs, home appliances, furniture and vehicles. So let me break that down. This is from the new york federal reserve and it is a survey on consumer spending. This report is telling you that people are having to forego on non-essential spending they're spending less money on non-essentials aka, crap toys, tvs, computers, hooters tutors, whatever vacations home repairs, home appliances, furniture vehicles, right, they're, spending, less money on that and they're spending more money on essentials.

When you spend more money on essentials, it means you're spending more money on food and energy costs and gas or rent. It means that inflation is up so, in other words, literally going into the fed meeting the fed is getting hit in the face again worst reading. Since the readings began basically in in late 2025 or late 2015., so not good uh. Now this, in my opinion, makes it unlikely that the federal reserve is going to back down from their hawkishness.

That is expected to come on wednesday. Now there are varying different. There are varying degrees of hawkishness that we might see. One is that the federal reserve might actually just end the taper and hike rates in january.

That would probably crash the market enough. The fed really cares, but i don't think the fed is going to do that, because the fed has been pretty transparent on their course and they're, trying to complete the taper by march and then raise high uh raise rates which we expect rates to go up. 0.25 percent in march, they could potentially come in with a double rate hike which would make the market even more nervous by march. This is why you're seeing so much volatility in the stock market is because we have these inflation fears.

Biden can't do anything biden's yelling at the fed to be hawkish. People think the fed's gon na come bail them out, but they're wrong, because that's not the federal reserve's job, but the federal reserve's job is not to be able to amount. Then people think that oh well, well, maybe earnings will bail us out. In other words, the good is priced in and uh.

You know what we're gon na get even more good news and then the stock market rally, but the problem with that is. If we have high expectations that earnings are going to bail us out, then those expectations might disappoint and even if those earnings came in hot, they might just encourage the federal reserve to tighten more because it potentially implies more inflation. But based on what we're seeing with consumer mobility data, if we look at google mobility data, even as recently as three days ago, when their last report came out on the 21st, we're seeing declines in consumer mobility, i went to a breakfast place this morning and the Place was unusually empty, and now this could be seasonal, it could be because in january people tend to spend less money than they do in december. Maybe they're out of money, their credit card bills come due or whatever, or it's a sign that people are pulling back because they're worried about a potential uh recessionary period coming forward.

Now i i don't expect a recession, i'm not trying to like oh fud. That's it recession is coming, that's that's a small case for me. I think, there's a 20 chance of a deflationary recession and a 20 chance of a hyperinflation recession. I think we're more.

The majority of the odds are are in the middle that we're gon na get through this. It's gon na be painful, inflation's gon na inflict down and one inflation and flex down. Then the market can actually start rallying again, but until then we don't actually have motivation for the market to rally on top of this this morning. On top of this bad news regarding biden being a hawk on cpi on inflation, and then this latest inflation data and the fact that we know the fed's not coming to bail us out on top of that, what do you have? Well, you have russia tensions going nutso.

The fact that look joe biden mentioned this morning that he's considering sending 5 000 troops to the eastern european region and the baltics you've got the swiss military already moving ships uh into the region above uh, the baltics uh and where saint petersburg and russia is uh. You you've got a hundred thousand russian troops on the border of the ukraine and you start realizing uh. Oh we've got a little hotbed here and now the embassy in kev in the ukraine is saying you know what uh embassy folks, you should send your families home because we might be going into war here. That's not good.

The market fell on that news this morning, but let me put this into perspective. Okay, we had 2 000 troops left in afghanistan. Biden is sending 5 000 to eastern europe to maybe help our nato allies. Like latvia, uh along the border of russia, okay, russia has 100 000 troops on the border of the ukraine.

Just to compare this. When operation iraqi freedom happened, we had 82 000 troops invade iraq. This is 100 000 troops on the border of ukraine and uh putin is now suggesting that we might end up seeing a germany versus poland style blitzkrieg, which is like a 48-hour invasion and turnover and overthrow of power kind of like the taliban rolled into afghanistan. When joe biden pulled out the 2000 troops that we have left, there are also fears about cyber attacks, uh and and uh.

You know fake, as who knows, there's just a lot of drama and unknown. That's going on uh. This is a big geopolitical tension. Combine this with inflation uh in the federal reserve, there's a lot of reason why the market is selling down now uh.

I want to clarify a few things uh. First, i want to clarify that some folks have asked me kevin. You know why. Why would you refinance properties to potentially buy the stock market dip? Well, let me make this very clear.

You should only ever refinance properties if you can actually afford the additional payment refinancing properties is taking out. In my opinion, much safer debt than margin, debt or credit lines, because there they have generally amortized terms, and if you don't know what amortization is you shouldn't be touching this kind of debt anyway, uh and they're, not callable, like margin is again if you're not familiar With margin calls do not touch margin, i also want to make it crystal clear that i've never been margin called. So it's very, very critical that we remember that you want to stay away from margin. Pay off debt be careful if you're a passive investor, buy the dip man huddle and buy the debt.

If you are a trader like i am trading my portfolio, i think there is an opportunity to sell and re-buy lower. Maybe maybe today is the bottom. Maybe, who knows i i don't i do not know, but when i look at actually the positive catalyst that we have versus the negative catalyst that we have. I don't think it's over because i think drone powell is not coming to our rescue and i think that uncertainty is going to build over the next 36 hours before the federal reserve's meeting.

And it wouldn't surprise me for us to see more of a sell-off again. The problem with every one of these rallies that we get is we get these rallies and then it enables other people to pile on the shorts or buy puts, and then the mar or just straight up, sell out, and then the market falls. It's simple psychology of money, like i teach in the programs link down below now i want to be crystal clear. Please don't follow my trades.

I do post every single trade i make in the programs on building your wealth linked down below whether i'm buying puts or closing puts just don't follow my trades, because i can't guarantee that you are going to make money and i don't want to be responsible for You losing money anyway. Thank you so much for watching this video. If you found it helpful, consider sharing it and we'll see in the next one bye.