Welcome everyone to uh the first ever episode see it used to be coke with kevin. That was always good, but uh. Now we've moved on to uh. We've graduated to beer with kevin, so we're gon na have an honorable local here at 805.

uh and we're gon na talk about the real reason. Uh i sold uh. It's gon na be full transparency. It's uh! It's been a plan, that's been in the making uh.

You know since last week, uh the end of last week and i haven't really told anyone about it, uh, with the exception of what i've talked about in my videos, about my game plan to to take advantage of uh, potentially a further decline and swing back. But i haven't revealed specifically uh what i see on the horizon and i think it's very very exciting uh, and so i don't have a full formulation of this yet, but i think it's worth having just a little bit of a preface here just so you can Understand a little bit more of the background as to why uh this setup actually works the way it does so uh. Hopefully it makes sense uh, but anyway, first, since we did title this beer with kevin, hopefully you can cheers, have a little sip all right here with kevin has begun so uh i used to be a hundred percent long on everything, never sell real estate, never sell Stocks, uh and always with 100 transparency. The same is true today, uh and see: that's why i hate on a lot of the institutions, because the institutions and people like bill ackman, they'll, pretty much lie to your face and not tell you that they're short so like when seeing when bill ackman was on Cnbc complaining about the market, he was still 1.2 billion dollars short.

He was saying he was buying the dip, but he was 1.2 billion dollars short and they're spreading fear like crazy right uh. I want to be very transparent and i always do that on this channel. I see personally, i don't care if you're short, i've regularly said being short is like a normal hedging strategy. So if you're not doing it as a hedge fund, you're going to lose customers, so it's okay to be short, just be transparent about it.

Like hey, transparent cnbc. We think the market's shutting down by the way right now we're 30 short and 70 long. That would be nice to know right, uh, it's same thing now, like i'm uh, what i don't know: uh 95 cash and five percent short, it's probably more like one percent shares and then uh, 94 cash and five percent short. So i like to be very, very transparent with this right and there's a reason for this.

I'm gon na talk about this, but anyway uh. I always tell you: hey, i'm this much in cash, i'm using margin, i'm not using margin, i'm buying the dip, i'm adding or i'm not okay. So we know that so with that out of the way uh i have over the last year. In addition to this, transparency moved from being a hundred percent long to being uh sort of 80 long and 20 percent trade to being much more trade, because i like it, i really like it, and so the truth is, i am setting up what and i'm going To talk to you about what it is here, uh, in my opinion, what could be the trade of a lifetime and the trade of the lifetime has to do with a specific sector of the market and could be wrong about it? It's very risky.

I don't advise anybody copy me on this. It's it's not like see. The problem with me is. I can't hide my personal portfolio.

I've agreed to put my personal portfolio out there, so i can't have a public facing account where i just show you crap that i bought five years ago and go look at how up i am and then a secret account where i do whatever that i really Want i can't do that because i'm fully transparent, so i can't i can't hide big bets from anybody, because it's all fully transparent in the program and if somebody doesn't like something they just send it out to the world anyway. Right. That's, that's! Fine! That's that's the way, that's the way it works so uh. I so what's the reason i sold i sold because i believe the market is going to go down 20 more and that's going to be really bad for certain stocks.

But just because the market's going down 20 doesn't mean i need to sell like i don't need to sell, tesla or apple or whatever, because the taxes are gon na be painful right. If net net i have to pay somewhere around three or four million dollars in taxes now uh for for unrealized gain gains that now became realized gains. My bet needs to be not a 20 decline or you know the market doesn't have to go down 20 or 30 percent. It should go down more than that and then you have to perfectly buy that dip right and rotate back up.

That doesn't make sense. That's that's illogical, uh, like that's a very hard thing to time, but what i'm actually doing is looking at the market and deciding okay. What do i think apple is going to do the next year. 20.

30. 5, move with the indices right. What do we think? Tesla's gon na do in the next year. I don't know, i think by 2025 conservatively it's a double or triple right, maybe it'll double within the next year.

It entirely could they'd go to 1300 and elon turns around and uh and splits the stock. The thing goes and runs and goes crazy again, it's entirely possible, but here's, the big trade i'm gon na reveal it after another sip beer and then i'm gon na do q a because i'm all for transparency. Look i get it uh. You know it's not fun.

To be hated on uh and uh, just so, you know by the way uh when we do this questions, you can ask questions like ice just said here in discord. Thank you for that. If you want to ask questions for free look, the only reason i do this. The five dollar chat thing is because of all the spam on youtube.

It's really really bad. I could put slow mode on uh here, but you still get spam uh in discord. It's a lot less spammy so because you have to have phone verification on. So if you want to ask a question totally for free, go to metkevin.com chat and then go to the meet kevin group therapy.

Section uh should be just called beer with kevin, but it's meat, kevin group therapy and you can ask a question there totally for free, so i'm not trying to get five dollars out of you. If you want to ask a question, free, don't feel obligated to join but i'll look for questions in both of the places. Okay, all right. So here's what i think - and this is this - is the big trade.

The market will do very well during the interest rate hike cycles when inflation and flex down. We know that we know it's going to take a bit for inflection inflation to inflict down, and it's going to take time for jerome powell to stop being such a hawk. Okay, jerome powell was a dove for a very long time. He turned to a hawk and he's not going to turn back to a dove january 25th he's not going to flip back that quickly.

This means that highly shorted small cap stocks are in the ringer for much more damage. I think it's entirely possible and i know we've got green futures right now. It's a head fake, in my opinion, we've seen this the last eight weeks. The market goes up and then it just sells off because it gives other people opportunities to break out even at this and because prices ticked up again right.

So you keep getting the selling pressure because of j-pal. I believe small cap stocks, whether it's lemonade, shift technologies, tattooed chef, uh, hood, matterport, any kind of spack uh, whether it was uh, whether whether it's like a rival or arkamoto, or all of these stocks that are have a lot of them, have fundamentally sound business models. There are some that are risky that i wouldn't really want to touch. I think a lot of these are the butt of the market.

Right now they are getting shorted to death by hedge funds and fairly like fairly, because that's what hedge funds do? They short the small caps because that's what's been going down and they're getting crushed and destroyed, so everybody's shorting here and fleeing uh growth and fleeing into value. Well, what i believe is once we get through this next 60 days of j-pal fear, and then we get our first rate hike in march and then it's like okay, oh the market, went up point. You know. 20 well went up 25 basis points in terms of rates uh and then the market settles down.

It's like, oh, that wasn't that bad! Maybe we can go back to normal. I think once the market realizes things, aren't going to be that bad, when we have a rate hike cycle, shorts are going to cover shorts are going to cover like crazy, and there is going to be i'm going to use like a trumpian line here. But because i believe it there is going to be a massive short squeeze, the likes of which we've never seen before in all of the small caps, all of the small caps that are plus 25 short, i i quite frankly think are doubles or triples this year. Uh, if not even quadruples, so like people like oh no kevin's selling, because he thinks the market's going to go down 20, i don't really care if the market goes down 10 or 20 percent.

This doesn't matter but the opportunity to take that money and then throw it into stocks that have gone down 90. That's what i'm making a bet on now. It's a very big bet. I don't think that you should copy me.

I i'm not a financial advisor. I could be making a big mistake with my portfolio but see it doesn't really matter because, in my opinion, because my first of all it's my personal portfolio, if my personal portfolio goes from 20 million dollars to 10 million dollars, is it really going to change my Life, no, if my personal portfolio goes from 20 million dollars to 80 million dollars, that's gon na be dope. Now i can't guarantee that i this, who knows who knows you can't guarantee it, but i'm investing where my conviction is and i believe we're going to continue to see shorts, pummel, small caps and that is going to set up for the nastiest short squeeze that we've Ever seen before, i'm not talking like gme and just amc, just those two i mean everything. That's 20.

I mean it's going to be back to go down the list. What's more than 25 short doubles, triples and quadruples on these stocks. I believe that i don't believe apple or tesla have that same upside capacity in the short term, and again this is a trade. It is a trade, it is not a long term investment, it is a trade, it is a trade that, when rates start going up and when inflation peaks down the hedges are going to cover and it's the small caps that are going to squeeze up like crazy.

I i think it could literally be the biggest trade of of my career or or i could fail. You know and here's the thing folks, here's the thing worst case scenario i just buy back the stuff i sold like who cares? Okay, so i buy it back. 10 more expensively like it is a trade, but it takes 10 minutes to get back into the market. You know it's it's not like real estate, where, where, when you sell you're like permanently out or or out for the next, you know six months or whatever, as you're, trying to find a new deal, you could get in and out of stocks and cryptos so freaking Quickly so uh, so in my opinion this is a.

This is a huge opportunity and what i'm saying is there's more pain to come, especially in the small caps. I think there's a lot more pain to come for the small caps like i could see shift under a dollar. I could see a tattooed chef at seven dollars. I could see matterport at seven dollars.

I i don't want it to go down there, but i could see it. I could see robin hood at nine dollars. I hope not, i really hope, not uh, because i know there are a lot of hodlers, but uh selling is actually a way to avert that potential. If that ends up becoming true and then allows me to buy in uh cheaper in the future.

Uh and again, i think these are three and four x opportunities. I don't care about 20 here or there, who cares that doesn't matter, i i think as and and here's the thing what's happening in our society here: okay - and this is worth another another sip here - yeah workhorse there's another one. I think these small caps have gotten so destroyed because and and see some of you remember this. I uh i signed up for this subscription service.

That shows me where retail investors are investing their money and guess, where they're not investing their money right now, it's insane like you can literally put this on a chart, and i kid you not. The retail investors are nowhere to be found in these stocks. The retail investors are not buying lemonade shift, uh uh tattooed chef er. What was the other one? I had the other one written down here, one, the fourth one that i keep talking about anyway.

The retail investors are not buying these, so they give permission to the institutions to short them, but that will u-turn at some point, but for the time being, until retail comes back around these aren't going anywhere but straight down, and that's why robin hood's been plummeting too, Because it's gotten very little love from retail, and so when something doesn't get good love from retail it. Oh corsair was the other one uh, even even uh. Uh microvision, though microvisions had some issues with their forward-facing lidar, i'm not very happy with uh, but like a chargepoint or embraer, or some of these other companies right, but anyway, an ember air has a great spot coming out by the way uh. I think erj will actually be the better investment in the spec, though, but anyway, these small caps, i think, are going to have explosive growth as well as uh.

A crypto will move quickly during during the madness here. I really still believe that 2022 is gon na be a great year for crypto, but it's gon na go through a lot of pain. First, you could try to trade it which is risky uh. I will dread it.

I will definitely be trading it uh. You know. I will send alerts, as i always do in the stocks and psychology money course and uh. I expect within 24 to 48 hours.

I can probably profitably trade uh crypto 80 of the time, maybe 70 of them no guarantees. That's just an expectation i have. I just bought some crypto, it's actually down a little bit, but that's okay, because i think in the morning we're gon na get a nice pop, we'll see uh, okay, so the the big move, though, isn't crypto. The big move, in my opinion, is the shorted small caps and so uh, that's what i'm setting up for, and so i guess uh now that i've explained myself.

Hopefully this is something that gives me a lot of excitement. It is a trade but look at it. This way, if i have uh two million dollars tied up in amazon and apple, what are they gon na do for me, they're going to get me 400 grand if they go up 20. That's a lot of money! That's great and there's less risk in probably doing that, but if i'm a customer of a company like lemonade or shift - and i'm like this - is a great company - they're well capitalized they're worth less than the cash they have on their books.

Uh, then, to me, these are like deep, like kind of like kathy wood, says deep value place, but actual value place like where you look at the balance sheet and you're like oh, my gosh. How is this so cheap? So those are stocks i think, are three or four x opportunities and - and i think, there's a really good chance - we'll look back in two years and we'll go. How did we not buy? You know robin hood at seven dollars. It's obviously not at seven dollars.

Right now, i'm just saying if it got that low or even honestly, so far like there's so much bad news about the brokers, i think sofi could go down to eight or nine dollars if, if we keep getting this fed fud through march and that's a phenomenal Freaking company, but i you know i'd rather have as much money as possible on the sidelines to make those big buys and make those big bets, and i'm gon na wait to see that test of reversal, which remember this was a big thing and then i'm going To do q a because i promised this was going to be beer with kevin and we're going to do q a but uh. Remember the chart on shift, so we drew what i've kind of lately been calling the temporary scaffolds so shift starts falling like crazy right. Uh, okay: here we go so shift falls like crazy right here, falls, falls, falls, keeps going down and we're watching this thing fall, fall, fall, fall, fall, fall over here. It briefly channeled briefly channeled here for a period of about two weeks and we're like okay good.

I remember right here making a video hey if we get a full break above the line i'll buy. We never got a full break above the line, which was my indication that okay, we're not ready for that reversal, yet we're just not there yet. So what ended up happening take a look at it. We just kept going down right and that's what i'm trying to avoid, and so that's why i'd rather be sitting on the side as a big trade.

So that way, i can go ham on the small caps because i think there's going to be a massive short squeeze on these small caps, because the hedges are going to go back into high growth, they're going to go back into apple and tesla and they're going To go back into all the stuff that their customers want them to be in uh and when they do that, they'll also end up picking up some small caps, especially when they start rallying and then more and more of their customers are like yeah. We want you to be in that right, so, okay, uh, let's do q a. Let me see what you all think uh and what questions you have. I i'll just i'll answer any questions we have so i'm gon na start right now so uh.

Oh there's a good one: how much would a wood? Well, i can't how much wood would a wood chuck chuck if a wood kitchen, that's great uh? What have been previous catalysts that got retail off the sidelines? That's a really good question! Usually, retail comes off the sidelines when prices start going up and and that's why retail has not been in the small caps, because prices have been going down. So there have been net outflows out of small caps. That's setting up for the shorts to keep shorting and that's where the big opportunity is nobody's freaking talking about it. Dude you go on right now.

You do a fundamental analysis on shift technology, we're going to laugh you out of the room, because the charts this it's an opportunity not yet, though, it's not yet, though uh okay, somebody here says, sounds like a panic move. I mean to me it's very calculated but see here's. The thing uh reputation is what other people think of you character is what you are, and i believe, deep down inside that i'm doing the best that i possibly can and i'm being as transparent as possible and unfortunately uh. Sometimes, common sections can overamplify negative sentiments and it is what it is.

If that's the way people feel, then i need to address that and i'm happy to have a conversation. Why did you decide to sell such a large portion of your portfolio because i'm making an all-in bet on this, because i don't need to hold apple or amazon or google for a 20 or 30 up? If i think i can get a 2 3 or 4x and the way i'm going to play, this is i'm going to create because you like companies, can also go bankrupt. Right companies become penny stocks, i'm gon na make a basket and i'll probably pick uh 10. Small caps and i'll, probably honestly go all in uh on those 20 or on those 10 in that pie, and so that would mean i'd have two million dollars in each and if even on average, like you know, half of them 3xed and the other half lost A bit or whatever or stayed flat, that's still going to be a massive up when the shorts cover the shorts are going to move out of small caps and the the retail buyers will come back to small caps.

I have not picked those yet uh and that's why i haven't talked about them. Yet you know people people sometimes are like. Oh, you know tell us earlier, i'm telling you as early as i can you know it's still in the in the deciding phase. Uh.

Let's see here, uh thank you for the 25 donation there on uh on ilus. No, i'm not going to start a position on lucid uh. Yes, i agree with you. I agree that the russell 2000 small caps have another uh, a 10 downside.

Unfortunately, at least won't you be exposing yourself to more risk when you buy small caps at low levels, no um, i mean well, yes, and no, i believe, a diversified pie of small caps when they get to certain low level supports when we actually get to real Supports, i think they can only go so low, i mean. Obviously, zero is a threshold, but at some point their balance sheets prop them up and they just can't go lower than that uh. At least that's what i'm going to be making a bet on and i think the lower the price goes, the less risk you actually have remember. This is something i talk about in the stocks and psychology of money.

Group 2 is the lower price. Goes the less risk you have and now i know that sent a confusing signal to people, because what i say in the course is: if you're a trader, then trade, if you are a long term investor the sell button is broken. I've become a trader. By doing this, and - and so i know that sends mixed signals - i get it, but i'm trading, because i think this is a three or four x and i think quite frankly, i think the next five years are gon na be a crap market and when i Say crap market i do think they'll be relatively green, but i honestly think we're in for, like s p, 500, four percent, this year, five percent next year, four percent the year after it's gon na, be boring.

It's gon na be boring, uh, okay, so uh everyone. Let's get this question answered: okay, hi kevin thanks for taking questions a few days ago. You caught okay. Well, so i answered this at the beginning of uh, the video.

So the question and it's fair - i'm gon na answer it. So it's savage 782. I'm gon na answer it. You said a few days ago you called bill ackman and the hedges scumbags for putting fud into the market and making money by shaking out the weekends.

So let me clarify what i called them. Scumbags, for was without transparency, shorting the market and then trying to pretend that they were dip buyers when they were still billions of dollars short. I don't care if you're a short seller. I don't care.

If you want a bag on the market. I don't call peter schiff or harry dent a scumbag for saying the market's gon na go down. I don't do that because they're transparent, they say kevin. I think the market's going down and i think you should buy gold, and i say you know what i respect.

You because you're transparent, when i say i sold and i'm going five percent short, i'm being transparent. That's the most. You could ask for so there's a difference, a big difference. Uh! Then, then the question is uh.

Then you said i'm not going anywhere. I'm here to stay, i am here to stay, i'm still making videos, i'm not gon na, and i i talked about this in a video two days ago. It would be so easy. It would be so easy for me to just turn off all of the computers shut everything off and just go on a vacation for three months and give it all the middle finger and people do that.

That's called a rug, pull i'm not leaving that's why we're doing beer with kevin. So we can answer the questions that you have uh and and uh it's it'd be so, especially with the amount of hate. In the comments you know it doesn't make me feel good. Uh, it's not true.

I mean what they're saying is apparently is obviously their opinion. I don't believe it to be true. I read it. I'm like obviously there's a misimpression uh but uh.

What's what's so important is remembering that uh, i'm not i'm i'm here to make more videos. You know people have continuously asked me kevin. Why you know, or does this mean you're going to stop live streams? Why no, why? No, absolutely not i'm going to keep doing those, because i got to be able to time my way back in right. It's a big risk, but i'm going to make a big risk on what i think is going to be or take a big risk and what i think is going to be a bigger dip.

So hopefully that answers that question uh. You know i think earnings are not going to be great uh. I think. Even if earnings appear great they'll end up selling down uh yeah and to be transparent, i do not own any small caps right now.

So it's it's kind of like i'm telling you what my plan is before i've even done anything right: uh, 401k! Look! If you're, if you're a long investor in a retirement account or you're, a passive investor in an index fund, keep dollar cost averaging, like don't don't trade, you don't need to trade in that maybe trade, maybe if you have a roth uh, but also don't trade unless You want to trade, you know all right. What about neo uh, i don't like the um chinese companies right now. Uh, let's see here, you know i don't somebody's asking. Why don't i cover things from a certain section of reddit? I rarely read, read it.

I. I hate to say it: i rarely go on reddit. I live in the bloomberg terminal, uh, it's just where i live. How long do i plan to hold the small caps uh, potentially all of 2022 uh yeah video game related videos? Don't do well uh, okay.

Somebody says if it would play out, like you said, then everybody would be millionaires. No, because not everybody's gon na buy companies that are still rotating down so substantially right. So that's the nature of trading. I thought jeremy made a great video.

I think he he's phenomenal. I think he made a great video. My question is: why did you intentionally choose to not let subscribers know when you had the opportunity to do so on friday in the closing life yeah? Okay, so i mean this is a fair question. If you look at my, i sold video you'll see it was posted on saturday, so within 24 hours of when i sold - and it was what was it like 35 minutes long, that video took me about 10 hours to put together, no probably more, it probably took Like 20 hours to put together, if i just said on a live stream, hey guys by the way i sold everything okay got ta go now see ya.

What panda freakin ammonium would that cause? Then then i'd have literally zero opportunity to explain myself. Then everybody would go all the rumors would go rampant speculation, the you know, whatever madness or whatever. So it's you know. I i think honestly.

I think it was fair within 24 hours, it's pretty fast for for how big of a video that was and how, how much thought had to go in that video. That video took a very very long time to put together uh and so uh, like in my course member live streams which we do every day the markets open. I'm a lot more raw because it's it's uh it usually. You know we have a very good dialogue and sometimes we kind of almost like build off of each other's comments and we're kind of like.

Oh what about this? What about this? Oh, that's, a good idea! Oh, i haven't thought about that. I'm gon na write that one down right, uh, there's there. It feels like there's more back and forth, which uh is, is only possible with a smaller group. I found anyway, okay, uh, let's see here.

How do you plan to offset 2022 taxes? Well, if my bet works out, the way it is my bet is actually going to pay my 2021 taxes and my 2022 taxes, because remember i have a massive tax bill coming for 2021, so partially. I i'm also motivated to make a big trade to pay. My last year's taxes - yes, i read things like rsa um, the relative strength index and that you have to be careful with rsi, because when you're in a declining market, the market will always show oversold. It's only in hindsight that the rsi works well.

So you have to use multiple technicals together, uh. Yes, i do think that corsair, actually, if, if we go to real pain, corsair has more downside. Oh pounds: here's another one pallent here's another one, but you have to be careful because palantir is much further stretched from its balance sheet and see. This is where okay, i don't know how many of you have read: warren buffett and the snowball of wealth.

But i love warren buffett and i really admire him. The guy's mega cash right now mega freaking cash heavy. He ain't buying the dip, charlie munger's, buying the dip on baba alibaba. But why is warren buffett not buying the freaking dip? Folks, there's a reason: warren buffett's not buying the dip yet because the valuations are still nutty.

When the federal reserve comes out and says the valuations are way too high, they're not going to turn dovish. The fed turns dovish when valuations are depressed, they're still yeah. We sold off a lot they're still really high. Palantir has snowflake level valuations.

It is a very, very large uh, largely valued company, for the amount of revenue that they can even forecast over the next four years. I love talent here. Don't get me wrong, but i don't know if i could put it in my small cap basket, because what i'm gon na do is i'm gon na go and you are a true warren buffett fan beyond the stupid. Meme quotes people put on twitter.

You are a true warren buffett fan. If you know what a cigar butt is, if you want to go cigar but shopping with kevin, follow and subscribe, you know what i got ta do is we're gon na we're gon na create after this, in the course member group on stocks we are going to Create a cigar but channel that is going to be dedicated to fundamental analysis on cigar bots because i'm putting my entire portfolio into cigar bots. And if you don't know what cigar bots are you got to read warren buffett and snowball wealth or even the uh, and not just that, but also read the intelligent investors, another good one uh cigar, bots yeah. So just so you know that the comparison of a cigar, but is a company that basically is so cheap on the stock market that it's selling for less than book, which is really hard to come by now, because of computers and algorithms.

So usually the best you can do is get close to book value and uh, and basically you pick them up and they're just little companies that you don't want to hold forever. You just want to take a few more, you know drags of the cigar and then you throw them away because other people have thrown thrown them on the floor before they were fully smoked. Uh yeah, all right! So, let's see here, would you consider shorting something like ubiquity that hasn't had a big pullback, yet i really hate shorting. I really really do uh.

I would be most inclined to short something with gambling money like like, very very little money the day before earnings, but that's probably it uh. I would be more inclined to spend more money on a short if i thought that i had consumer information, not private information. Consumer information that i think would be a sign that a company was going to have horrible earnings and i would short the crap out of that. There is one company that i will probably make like a 400 000 short bet on with options and that could go really dirty or really beautifully uh.

Well, so uh somebody's asking. Why are futures going up? So we talked about this on on friday and saturday that usually, after a big red day, futures do go green and the market starts green and we've seen this a lot before. Even if we have a full green day tomorrow, it wouldn't be surprised to see red on tuesday and wednesday before jay pal, maybe even after jay pal or at the end of the day. Tomorrow, because we tend to see that rotation down ah own something good says, rebuilding trust is difficult.

So personally, i don't feel like i've done anything and maybe i'm delusional, but i don't feel like anything that i've done anything that that should remove trust uh. Maybe some people are gon na laugh at that. I i don't know i. I really believe that i'm the one of the most transparent people on youtube when it comes to these things, and it's like should i should i just have not followed my conviction.

Should i just have put my head in the sand and not talked about this bet? I don't have to be right. I might not be right, but at least i'm being honest about it. It wasn't an easy decision to make. You know people make it seem like.

I just like, like uh, like you know, at the drop of a hat changed my mind. I make decisions by thoroughly thinking them out, uh, you know, and and taking my life experiences and my prior experiences and putting them all together. Uh and i make decisions. I make decisions quicker than other people do uh some people, some people uh, you know - take a lot longer to make decisions, but everybody's different.

You know, i don't think it was panicky at all uh. You know. Maybe that was the impression but uh. I don't think so big on dwack uh.

When you talked about earnings being bad this quarter. Did you mean a specific sector? Was that a generalization? No, i think all earnings would be bad because i think - and i hope i'm wrong, because i don't want people. I see people who are long get hurt, but uh. The problem that you have with earnings is good.

Earnings are likely to get very little enthusiasm until march 16th because, like why are you buying before the rate hikes right and bad earnings? I think are going to get obliterated uh the companies will get obliterated. Look at netflix right. I don't need a lot of money for the businesses, i'm creating uh, that you know sure i'm creating five different businesses and - and i want to have money there - there are there - are some one of the businesses requires a substantial amount of capital. I have to put aside now: that's not a problem given that i've sold, i certainly didn't want to uh yeah.

That's certainly what i think. That's the whole business formation thing is more of like a contributing factor, but not the reason for me selling. It's just kind of like okay. Well, that's convenient! Now! I don't have to think about that anymore.

Let me give you another one of those so uh. You all know that i do most i've most of my account at jp morgan, but jp morgan sucks, like it's cancer like i literally lose money, because i have to wait for them to do phone calls and remember i've, never gotten margin called uh, but a disaster. So i'm really tempted to brokerage transfer, but i can't brokerage transfer if i'm in margin without a whole lot of complexity and probably like a month of waiting, so an additional fringe benefit of having sold is i can now brokerage transfer in the matter of like two Days and go to like a tasty tea day, uh, you know interactive or whatever uh and uh, and not worry about it, uh and and then i'm there uh and then i can execute my big trades, which is really really cool, uh yeah uh. Why not take the cash and retire well, that would be leaving right and, like i said, i'm not leaving like i mean that i really mean that uh, let's see here well, okay, so minecraft, i didn't say that i sold because of responsibilities.

Business employees that was like i just said it was a contributing factor uh, but it was uh. It was nowhere near as the conviction that i have on wanting to actually make my trade. So let's see here, uh, okay. So, on thursday i said i i feel like potentially we're hitting a bottom right, and that was the same day that i sat down for eight hours and thought to myself.

Are we actually potentially at a bottom and throughout my research? That's when i got to feeling i don't know that we are, i don't know that we are. I hope we are but hope is not a strategy and that's when i thought i think we could be in a convictionless rally mode until uh march 16th, and so that's the basis for this massive trade. That's the basis for having sold and look. I changed my.

I changed my opinion. I think i've been extremely consistent the last years, it's always by the way, by the way, by the damn and uh friday morning i made i made a change. Am i going to vegas for puerto rico? No! No! I wish, but no no uh now so so somebody says kevin got fearful like i do i disagree with that. I don't think going all in on a bet is being fearful.

I think if, if i sold and went all in on the s p 500 call me a weenie call me a weenie. You know what deserve that right, because then it's like wait like you're, walking away from your favorite stocks and face tesla or whatever to go. Weenie mode s, p, 500 and there's nothing wrong with s. P.

500. Don't get me wrong like if you're, just if you're in the s p? 500. That's that's fine! I'm just saying like if you're going on in a high fear time to less fear, that's weenie! If you're going from or from from risky to more risky, which is what i think i'm doing, i don't think that's weenie. I i actually kind of think that's like the definition of diamond hand or diamond balls like that's it's gutsy, you know, and it makes me nervous, but but i'm excited about it uh.

I don't know that i would go what's what's your most bearish bearish case for a 20 million dollar small cap bet uh. Well i mean half the companies go penny stock. You know, then you got a problem uh. How quickly do you expect small caps to return? Three or four x, i think, if we get a beginning of a rotation in march, probably by december, no guarantee no uh.

Thank you. This is a fair question since you have sold. Have you doubted your decision all not at all. I made my decision and - and this is why it's so hard to like like see that the drama uh in the comments or other people making these speculative videos or whatever it's just like.

It's all noise. It's it's all noise, because it's it's not my intention. I do you know what is actually kind of funny right now is. I am literally right now all in on amc uh, which, which is i i never thought i would say, uh that i the only stock i own well, with the exception of my little public, account uh, which is like well, that's the one.

The one thing i didn't uh solve: that's why it was like 99.5 or whatever i counted that in the percentage uh. But i didn't trade in in public. I forgot where i dealt with jpm weeble and robin hood, and then i totally forgot. Although there wasn't really anything to do with them, robin hood, because the brokerage transferred anyway uh - let's see here uh, do you think amazon can move like netflix after earnings, i mean they've already fallen quite a bit, but uh yeah.

There's there's certainly pain that amazon could experience yeah. Absolutely it's been trading sideways for a very long time, though. Oh wow, you bought tesla when i did the beginning of 2021. No well, i've been buying since like 2018, but you bought a beginner 21 and you sold the day before.

I did oh well good for you, i'm glad you got some gains. Awesome awesome! Uh! No, it opsar here says he's only keeping amc because he fears the eight backlash. That's wrong. Had my year been up, i would have sold amc, but my year is not up, i think it's may or june yeah i've.

I think it's actually may i think in may. My one year is up, but i made a promise, so i'm keeping the promise, look us in the eye. You keep looking down well, this is this is where you are, and then this is where the chat is and the chat's also right here. So that's why i'm looking around uh? Do you believe there's a chance that bury is right and we're heading towards disastrous hyperinflation? I think there's a 20 chance that the bury case scenario is right.

I think that hyper deflation has a 20 chance and then i think this there's more like a 60 chance that we don't go into one of those recessionary scenarios that we get disinflation and that we recover so somebody's saying uh dano here daniel is saying: do you Do you see why it comes across as as poorly if you buy and then sell the next day yeah i get that i get that and that's why that's why i make the videos and talk about it. You know, i still think a firm and end phase and tesla are great. I love them, but uh. You know, i don't move the market so uh.

You know, i i see a better opportunity and i believe that individuals want me to tell them when, when there's a change, if i have a change of strategy - and i think i did very well for saying this very quickly, in fact - i'm taking the the biggest Risk here right see, i'm not i'm not being like a scumbag who's gon na go uh. Oh i'm gon na secretly make this trade. If it works out, then i'll make a video three months later. If it doesn't work out, then i won't say anything that happens.

All the time you got ta realize i'm making this trade without knowing the result uh with and most edited videos on youtube where people are like. Oh did so well on that or the post like, in my opinion, a lot of this bullcrap. I don't trust it. Uh, you know that's not throwing shade at anybody individually.

I just think in general, i think edited posts or bull cup. This is why i like doing my live streams or we look at ta. Live stock market live but look at this folks i uh, i asked i ran a poll in discord uh amongst the course members, which i can't believe my birthday is in five days, which is when that coupon expires. But i read a poll and i said, vote.

If you believe there is a change, would it be better to bury my head in the sand and pretend everything is fine? Just do the same thing over and over again, or would you expect me to tell you that i believe a change is in order? Click. The check box, if you see a change, tell us even if it's hard, don't change, stick to your original concept would be hit. The little xbox so here here are the results of that poll. So, as you can see here, uh, if you see a change, tell us got 2 278 votes and don't change.

Stick to your original concept got 90 votes. So that's what i'm doing, i'm just trying to be transparent. Now i know it's hard. It's hard! It's hard for me to assuming you didn't make this decision on a whim.

How long had you thought about doing this before you pulled the trigger this small cap move is something i've only thought about since thursday. It was something that uh and my conviction has only grown in it, so i couldn't have even told anybody anybody sooner or anything other than like i mean i suppose, for a few months, we've been tracking the small caps and waiting for them to hit a bottom Right, but i was gon na: do a smaller trade, not like an all-in trade. Let's see here, uh, okay, well, here's! Why did you okay? Some of these? I think you all already know the answers to, i hope, you're having fun drinking a session. Let me go back to the the free section here for a second just to so i keep it balanced.

So um look somebody's saying here you need to say you were thinking. Okay, look. Some folks are are wondering why i didn't say: oh i'm thinking about selling. Okay, let's go through that scenario, t neb! This is for you.

My initial thoughts of selling came at about 9 00 p.m. On thursday, i stayed up extra long that night and then i decided you know what we're not going to do anything rash. Let's not make any decisions, let's sleep on it, so i slept on it and then i continued. My analysis in the morning woke up early continued.

My analysis. We did our market open, live stream still hadn't make a decision uh, and then i made my decision. The problem was at that point. I didn't know what trades to make yet.

Should i sell a quarter of my portfolio and not be in margin? Should i sell 50 of my portfolio? Should i sell calls? Should i sell all of it? Should i not do it at all uh should i buy puts which put should i buy? I can't make that decision like this, and even though i made the decision that okay, i'm gon na sell, had i just written in you know, on on a on a tweet or a discord post, i'm thinking about selling what the hell, what kind of guidance is That wait, so are you going to or are you not? What are you going to do? What are you going to sell? I don't know, i can't give you the answer when i don't have the answer. Quite frankly, i think for having started my planning at like 9 00 pm on a thursday night to staying up very late thinking about all the scenarios, to sleeping on it to finalizing my decision in the morning to coming up with a strategy and then posting my Strategy with my raw thoughts, to course, members at uh at 12 p.m, uh and then coming up with a video that took me 10 hours to plan the very next day. Honestly, i think, is pretty damn good, because if you watch the whole 35 minute video, you get a whole lot of thesis and conjecture in there, and i can't do that on a whim. So so, in my opinion, uh, i i don't think that it's possible to just say uh, you know turn around and and roll uh, let's see here, okay, okay, so to the moon is mad at me.

What what's to the moon mad at me for? Okay? Let's see here, i'm trying to understand: where is it? Okay, those are that was 21. where's. The post give me one sec trying to scroll to the darn thing. Was it in the course member lives? Oh that's! Okay.

Yeah, give me one. Second here yeah, it's blurry! That's why i can't fully read this. I wan na i wan na to the moon. Can you post a not blurry picture because i'm trying to find the original post and - and i can't find it, but i'm happy to address your question? Did i make this decision by myself? Yes, i made this decision by myself, but i did talk to other people.

I talked to many other people, yeah there's some some comment about four days before i don't. I don't believe this is true. What is this uh? You came there to fort, oh, oh, okay, so um to the moon is just misreading a post of mine. This was a post in the course member live stream, and it's a misreading.

Uh he's suggesting that i'm a liar for this and he's misreading this him or whatever. So i say here i came. It came over the course of four evening hours plus four morning, hours of research plus accumulated research right, but i think he's reading this as four evenings instead of four evening hours plus morning hours right. This is how, like misinformation, spreads one person misreads something, and then everybody takes the headline and runs with it.

It's really sad. I mean it's honestly like this. Is it's better to just explain less than explain more because people just don't get it uh or or whatever? Oh so jungle man is mad at me. Not a course.

Member here who says clever leaves is a company you shield at fifteen dollars. It's now at two dollars, so clever leaves was a trade. If you go back to my live stream last year, i actually even did a uh a profit and loss and clever leaves was a trade uh, but that wasn't there was a quick in quick out. I don't remember if i made money or lost money, you could look at the video uh, but no clever beliefs was never meant to be a law.

It was meant to be a trade uh and some trades do well, some trades. Don't so, let's see here sometimes a female pro female says so sometimes so you're saying so you mean less transparency is better. Ironically. Sometimes it is because radical transparency gets creates so much confusion for sometimes for people and it's and it's insane uh.

It's it's very, very difficult to have to explain all this. Have you fallen out of love with the firm and face? No, i still love them still love them. Somebody says don't understand why you need to defend yourself. Well, i mean i'm always happy if somebody's upset, i'm happy to go, live and explain uh.

So my research somebody's asking me about details in my research. My research usually involves a lot of uh historical reading, yeah. That's it usually just just history and uh. You know, perspectives and theses from individuals.

Do you think dollar cost averaging every day until march is a good strat? Well, honestly, i don't actually think that's that terrible of an idea uh, if, if you wanted to just like every day between now and march 16th, take your entire portfolio divide it up and just buy every day equal amounts until them. I quite frankly, don't think that's a terrible idea. Uh when you see valuations are high. Do you think it's fair to compare historic pe norms with current growth uh? No, i actually don't so.

For example, when we look at like the shiller pe and stuff like that, which seems elevated, i actually don't think it's fair to say that we should compress the prior values because we've actually uh we've we've. Not only are we growing more, but a lot of these are weighted by the gross income of every company in the s p or the earnings of all companies. In the s p, the problem is earnings at a lot of companies have plummeted because they're, retail or recovery stocks and the technology companies are reinvesting earnings, so they're not taking as much the bottom line so yeah. Naturally, the shiller pe looks high, especially since the uh, the the stocks at the top are tech stocks at the top of the s p.

Now so, of course, the the shiller pe is going to look weird, you think it's smart to sell weekly covered calls. I don't think it's terrible. No, i don't think that's terrible uh. I yeah in hindsight.

Don't you think you should at least let you know subscribers? Well again. No, i i there's no way i could have come up with with the 35 minute video. I did. You realize small caps sometimes take years to get noticed yes and that's why picking the small caps is going to be very, very difficult, because we're going to have to find small caps that are mainstream enough to be in the face of of investors, because the danger With small caps, the small caps can get buried and forgotten and they end up turning into penny stocks.

So, but that's potentially why you could see uh. You know you know this this explosion. Somebody says our course member. Well any course member is welcome to be on the server, so, if you're having trouble get in just send over an email, just like reply to your receipt or whatever and send over an email we'll take care of it.

Uh, let's see here, okay. So how do you know when we hit bottom right? So, first of all, the the first indicator, in my opinion, is a reversal on j-pal. That's what you're looking for you're looking for a j-power reversal, but you're also looking for confirmation that not only have we hit bottoms but there's a key in technical analysis that basically, if you're trading along a support level, you rally off the support level. You come back down off the rally and you hit that support level again and then you bounce, that's, usually what you're, looking for, in conjunction with macro news like a j pal u-turn, probably what you're looking for uh, okay, so somebody says, uh kevin - has transformed from An investing channel to a trading channel so john says so i disagree with this.

I mean if you go, and not a lot of people watch this like folks, people get mad they're like oh kevin, doesn't do fundamental analysis anymore. What are you talking about? I literally just did literally just did a 31 minute deep dive on sofi three days ago. It got 72 000 views, that's nominal for a 31 minute deep dive on sofi. It is a really good, fundamental analysis and now all of a sudden people like kevin, doesn't do fundamental analysis anymore, open your freaking eyes.

Yes, i do what i i can't make trading videos and fundamental videos is: is there a ban on making both come on? Man? Get your head out of your butt, it's ridiculous uh! I do think this file be green by the end of 2022, not much, though, i'm actually planning on doing a lot more fundamental analysis. Videos, because i really think that the time to do a lot of fundamental analysis, videos is when the market's relatively close to bottom, which i think we kind of, are relatively close to bottom. I just do think: there's more pain ahead. Okay, some guy says you are worse than bill ackman.

Well, that's offensive. I i wish you would give me something i could actually respond to, instead of just an ad hom and an attack, but that's just the kind of garbage you have to deal with thoughts on crypto for march 16th uh. I think crypto's gon na have pain between now and march 16th. I think you can trade it, but you got ta, be really careful.

Uh you got ta, be really careful on trading crypto uh. I do think that we'll probably have little crypto rallies, but i think they'll sell off fast. The crypto rallies will sell fast uh. Did you see the oh? Somebody wants to know? Okay, i've gotten this question a lot and i've answered it many times.