Me kevin here most of twitter is up in arms right now, over inflation, mostly things like, let's go brandon dems voted for this prices will keep going up and hmm weird corporate profits are at all-time highs, yet wages are not, and while it's true that uh corporate Uh prices and pro corporate profit taking are at all-time highs, and a lot of this is happening under biden's watch. We are starting to see a shift that the mainstream media is blind to right now. You've got folks on the left making excuses for why inflation is what it is and you've got folks on the right, like fox news reporting, that 70 of americans are unhappy with the state of the economy. But what is the inflection that we're seeing right now? Well, let's talk about that quick note.

This video is brought to you by titan, but more on them in a moment. In the meantime, you can always check out the link in the description down below next to the courses with the programs and coupon codes for building your wealth. Okay, first inflection point that we need to pay attention to the manheim used vehicle report. Now, if we first look at the manheim used vehicle report, we're and a lot of folks do this, and this is one of the problems with unfortunately mainstream media is.

The headline indicates that prices for used cars are still going up and when we look at this headline, we think to ourselves. Okay, well, as expected, prices are continuing to go up. Inflation is still here. What else is new? Nothing manheim used vehicle price index going up, but when we actually look under the curtain of what's happening, we learn a whole lot more, and this is something that's very, very important.

We always want to find inflection points. Take a look at this. This is the index. We look at it here, like oh, no straight up continuing up, but this little circle there covers what's actually going on and it's another inflection point.

That's really important to pay attention to here's, a summary of the manheim and its inflection point. We saw weekly price declines in december that actually accelerated. In the final weeks of the month. The three-year-old index declined 1.7 percent, those are for three-year-old vehicles.

These are things like ford f-150s uh corolla, some of the most popular vehicles, and they all saw all of them - saw declines in prices of 1.7 percent year over year. We're still up, there's no doubt about that, but market prices were lower than last month and average daily sales. Conversions declined to 53 indicating that we nearly have a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, as opposed to a big unbalanced to one side, which was many more buyers and not enough sellers we're getting to a balanced point again. As a result, more vehicles are showing price depreciation again year over year.

All of them saw price increases with vans having the best performance and prices going up, but according to cox, automotive, total u.s vehicle sales were actually down four percent year over year in december, and retail supply, which peaked in april of 2020 at 114 days, ended at 54 days, just uh now slightly above normal levels, which means we're finally building supply again, where we've been having these shortages, and this is helping drive vehicle prices, at least temporarily, to the downside, especially worth noting that the inflection point is accelerating or this. This change is accelerating or has accelerated towards the end of december, that is, prices started falling more towards the end of december than they were falling at the beginning of december, and so we expect that this pace could continue in january, and, what's also important to note, Is that retail sales are trending down from their peak in spring? If you look at research from manheim and the manheim institute, you're going to find a an almost straight decline from about april of this year to december in used and new vehicle sales, and this is going to continue to add to pricing pressure for new and used Vehicles on a month over month basis again top selling vehicles on the three-year-old index. So that's the 2018-2019 models all showed declines. Every single one of them and prices seem to have really peaked in august and november.

So, despite the fact that sales have been going straight down since uh april, where we had a sales peak, we did have price peaks in august and november, but those have all consistently been on a downward trend uh, since these price peaks and uh, that is in August we had a peak, then we trended down with a brief little revisit in november, but now we're trending we're on that same downtrend, where prices are rotating down. So this is actually really good and this kind of data is maxed by the overarching or the overall chart where, if you just look at the chart on sort of a zoomed out basis - and you see this you're like oh my gosh used, car prices are going Up inflation's going to the moon, it's the democrats fault. You know all that kind of nonsense, but when we actually look under the hood, it's like wait a minute we're actually starting to see an inflection point in the manheim market report, and this is a big deal. But not only is this a big deal, there are other things that are inflecting as well.

Listen to this, the personal savings rate is now back at pre-pandemic levels. Around seven percent jp morgan found that lower incomes have already exhausted their savings and working in middle class. Families are expected to have exhausted their additional savings by the early part of this year. Now, what's important to note here is that indeed.com conducted a survey in the last 30 days about why people aren't searching for jobs? Why it's taking longer to fill some positions? Why, in the beige book, we're hearing that folks in dallas texas have to hire five people? Just to keep one of them because they're finding such a mismatch in the employees that are actually applying for jobs compared to the work and skill sets that they need.

So it's becoming so hard to find folks. One of the reasons is because, according to indeed.com, folks, aren't really that motivated to find jobs right now, because they've got a good financial cushion but again going back to jpm that financial cushion could be evaporating in the next few months, meaning that businesses could maybe finally Start actually finding the workers they need without necessarily having to raise wages even more now. Don't get me wrong. I think wages have some catching up to do, but wages going up obviously create pressures for uh, manufacturing input, costs, uh and supply input costs, and so this uh is another place where we're actually seeing inflection points to the downside in inflation.

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Remember that's titan.com kevin for zero fees. Okay! So, let's get back to this inflection point services. Pmi is now at a three month low, that is price pressures on the services. Pmi has hit a three month low.

This is a good sign for inflation. The purchasing price index today came in with a lower month. Over month, inflation read than expected, we were expecting a 0.4 percent read or about a four point: eight percent annualized inflation rate. We actually came in at point two percent, or only a two point: four percent annualized inflation rate.

Of course, year over year, we're still uh prices have gone up about nine point: seven percent, which also came in slightly weaker than expected, and it's a big year-over-year number, but on the month-over-month data, the data that is most important now we're seeing a decline, substantial decline From the 0.4 percent expected to 0.2 percent - that's the ppi, but on top of that we also had the manufacturing pmi report from ihs market surveys and they showed that manufacturing growth came in at 55.5, anything over a read of 50's growth, but the big tell quote: Input cost inflation softened to a three month low we're still above long run averages, but we did have a softening to three months low so on manufacturing and services and producer price index on all three of these. Here we have an inflection to the downside in inflation. Combined with the uh manheim vehicle report, showing a downside to inflation, combined with a a sort of a return to normal in the personal savings rate, in other words, people have less money, probably or likely to contribute to a future decline or a continued decline. Rather in inflation, because now, if people have less money to spend, then that again could potentially imply that we're going to see a uh, an overall rotation uh to the downside in inflation.

But it's not just that uh, because we do have this sort of dual impact of omicron see. Omicron could actually make inflation worse. Just like the delta variant ended up, making inflation more long, lasting and persistent because of the supply chain disruptions. It's worth noting that omicron right now, which could end up having those or causing those same sorts of supply chain disruptions, which would not be good.

That would hurt inflation so far. That's not happening too severely, with the exception of little instances in china where this is occurring, but what's more important in my opinion, right now is actually looking at the the apple and google mobility index to see hey what's happening in markets are individuals actually spending more Money are they getting out there spending more money, or are we seeing less activity, which potentially implies less spending? Take a look at it right here. This is the apple mobility driving index right here, ending today january 13th, and so it's indexed from a year ago. Right but uh, this report is from today and you can see the u.s data.

Is this light blue line here or the americas data on a four-week mobility path? We are actually down 20.5 percent uh and take a look at this. This is kind of that mobility data we're down here, so we've fallen a little bit relative to even levels where we were in august, so we've got substantially less mobility than we had even during the delta surge right now, which could potentially imply less spending to come. So that's the apple mobility data. This is the google mobility index.

You can clearly see this decline here i mean we are at levels that we last saw in april of 2020, when we were really just starting to have the spring reopening uh sorry april of 2021. After the coveted winter tomtom congestion index also showing that we are at low levels likely back to about january of 2021, according to this, so clearly seeing a decline in mobility, and this this is definitely something where wait: a minute decline in mobility, combined with people having Less savings means potentially less spending, which potentially means less price pressures combined again with the inflection point in the mann heme, the inflection in the pmi ppi services, ppi or pmi. Rather, all of these things, combined together, along with likely substantially less fiscal spending in 2021 and increase borrowing costs from the federal reserve, as rates go up, bar and costs will go up. We could potentially see all of these things doing the same exact thing: pushing inflation down less money to spend because of higher borrowing costs or because you have less that you got from the government because you have less for any reason, less financial cushion means you're spending Less money you're going back to work, you're, providing potentially more supply to the labor market, which reduces that that price pressure on wages, along with all of these other input, costs sort of starting to inflect.

To the downside, this is a good sign for inflation. All of these things are pointing to lower inflation. Now the big risk, though, of course, is china. China has seen kovitz spread rapidly.

The good news right now, though, is in areas where covet is beginning to spread rapidly. We notice a peak usually somewhere between two to four weeks after the surge. Look at the united kingdom cases, rotating down, look at new york city cases flat for the last four days, china again seeing a rapid spread of covet. Multiple cities have gone into lockdown ahead of the winter olympics in beijing, but over 20 million people are being confined by these lockdowns and and this could unfortunately negatively affect inflation if we end up seeing more supply chain constraints, in fact, one city in china, one of The with one of the world's largest shipping ports and a production hub for foreign businesses ordered a half-day break solely for covet testing.

This again brings fears that omicron could disrupt supply chains, but we don't expect to see the same disruption that we saw with delta. If anything, these should be recoverable supply chain in interruptions as long as omicron does not stay too long to end up damaging supply chains, uh for longer periods of times, but anyway uh all of this together. Here, i have to say as sort of a bottom line. I'm very optimistic, i'm optimistic that yes, inflation did last longer and was more last long or was more persistent than expected, but that that inflection point in inflation is coming and that we're going to more broadly see that inflection point over the next two to three months, Which, in my opinion, is not only bullish for technology stocks but is also bullish for cryptocurrencies, which i'm very very excited about so uh again, manheim uh personal savings rates going down increased borrowing costs lower fiscal spending, probably an inflection point coming for omicron, which should put Less pressure on supply chains, pmi services, pmi ppi, all of these things, inflecting down good news for inflation, good news for the future of cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, and i'm super excited.

Remember folks. If you want to get all of my buy sell alerts, which i just bought, some cryptocurrency check out the programs, i'm building your wealth down below. Thank you to titan for sponsoring today's video. If you found this video helpful, consider sharing it and folks we'll see in the next one.