Well, welcome back to another market closing live stream and we are just uh continuing to experience, exhausting disaster in the stock market uh. It continues to prove that small caps have convictionless rallies that are quickly suppressed, mostly because companies that that, when they rally like lemonade, are actually creating the perfect opportunity for hedge funds to continue their shorts. Think about this and remember this folks. What we have is an environment where hedge funds and institutions have the easiest possible opportunity to short uh the stocks that uh are consistently falling.

I mean look at this downtrend on lemonade. Why would you not short this when it just continues to print and print and print? Today, lemonade ran up at at one point as high as 12 to 13 percent. We got rejected by the 40 10 support line. We never made it back to there.

If anything. Now that we got rejected, i wouldn't be shocked to see a an increase of short selling of lemonade, because another thing is one of the best times to short, a stock is when it's rotating up. I was thinking about shorting lucid, but the shorts are extremely expensive. On lucid right now, so i'm not jumping up and down at the prospect of of shorting a company that, in my opinion, has very expensive shorts and that's probably because a lot of lucid investors are hedging themselves against failed deliveries which at this point we expect now Lucid ran today on news that they were or considering launching vehicle sales in europe.

I honestly don't know that anyone freaking cares, but that news has still led to uh hopium entering the lucid environment uh, but anyway, uh expensive shorts. Here, of course, uh other things that that had rallied very well today also got beaten down and again, it makes the most sense for companies to short companies or for institutions to short businesses when they rally. This is when, when they rally, it is the best time to short, because you have them, you have more to fall. You have more meat on the bone, it's kind of like you, know the the chickens getting fattened up and now you're getting a chick, a fatter chicken leg, uh from kentucky fried chicken man.

That sounds good today, but anyway uh, although did they didn't, they change their name to kentucky girl chicken and they changed their name back anyway, uh. So yeah uh. Let's take a look at the overall indices, but this is one of the things that's happening with shorts, something to keep an eye on uh. I was trying to get some older tabs here from the course member live yeah.

So dow jones is up 0.21 percent uh. This is leading uh the vix to rotate down, despite the fact that the s p 500, the nasdaq and russell, are having pain. Yesterday we had some positivity for both the russell and the nasdaq. That's rotating away today, unfortunately, the the bad news worse than expected news for job wages, it's unfortunate, but it's what it is so uh, let's see here what we have in the rest of some of the stocks here and then we'll go, explore some bloomberg and other Things so uh.

I do believe that lemonade's continuing to get shorted the cruise lines are doing well here. Omicron news really again reiterating excitement for these and they're they're an opportunity to also escape tech right. So you have two things really going for recovery. You have the rotation towards potentially the end of the pandemic, plus on top of that, you have this uh enthusiasm that hey it's, not tech, so less selling pressure so you're getting into something with less selling pressure and momentum.

It's not uh not uncommon to uh to jump into this, so um good job here so to azuz cloudflare, trying to rotate slightly trade desk dropped a little bit after it's jeffrey's target uh didn't keep it up as well as thought uh. It might you've got corsair robin hood embroiler moving up a couple percent here towards the downside, though, you've got d-wack down. Uh almost 11 worsening little bit tiny little recovery there on ethereum, let's find btc for a sec. Here we go okay, uh, so btc also trying to recover on that one minute chart.

It had a little bit of a rough day, though, specifically because of that uh jobs report that came out right here. This is where you had initial excitement over the jobs report, and then we have trended down substantially uh, following that, following actually very closely on the five-minute chart, the 200-day uh, as as a ceiling yeah yeah you go to the five-minute chart. You are you're almost perfectly playing off the 200-day moving average again on the five-minute chart, and this is only as of yesterday that you're seeing this as a solid or pretty clear lid. It's not usually this blatant that we are popping off we i mean this is perfect.

Look at this. I mean you and - and you don't always see this - it's not like. This is a very common occurrence. You look back the the 200 day this orange line here.

It doesn't actually work that well as a resistance, uh yeah you're you're, not seeing that quite frankly at all that pattern, but look at this pattern right here. Folks, i mean this is probably the most beautiful uh use of the 200-day as a resistance that i've seen and uh look at this bounce bounce uh. You know off off of resistance here. Uh reject it almost looks like getting the haircut over here.

Reject reject reject just keep it up uh. This is the 200-day simple moving average. Thank you for uh five dollars. T-Max payne is chase private client worth it yeah.

I don't see why not? Why don't? I have permission to q a on the course member election. You should uh, i i mean they're wide open, so if you have access to the course member live, you know what you're probably doing is you're, probably trying to chat in the discord channel where the live stream is linked. You have to click on the live stream. Video, you can't chat in the discord, channel click on the video, and then you get a chat just like this, so that that would be the only reason that you would see.

Something that says you don't have permission uh is is if you're trying to chat in where the discord channel is so make sure you're trying to respond to a discord, video, okay, so roblox 84.. We are having a very nice rotation down on roblox and etsy, but so is docusign docusign coming off that 150 and uh 140 floor. So take a look at this roblox here, probably going to rotate back down to 76, potentially even 65.. It's interesting to me that it seems like we're kind of like rotating in waves.

Like you know, certain stocks get targeted and uh, and then they keep rotating down and down and down uh etsy over here. Look at this decline on etsy see we kind of hit a floor here and then nope just kidding last three days, three or four days, etsy has uh become a little bit of a discount. This will be another opportunity to uh to hop on uh on on more of the um more of a discount here, which is phenomenal. So, let's see here, end phase uh 4.5, 4.5.

Unfortunately, the downside look at this. We dropped the next level of support. Actually, no, this support line is the 155 uh. So we are now below the drawn supports that we have we we can go lower, keep in mind.

Everything can go lower, there's nothing to say that we have to stop at 143. That looks pretty decent because we've had a bounce here and we kind of get to the lid here at about 145. So maybe it's around 144. No, that's that's! Definitely more like 145., not worth drawing right now until we have a little bit more uh info, lucid eight percent here you know if this, if this keeps rallying i'll, probably end up buying an expensive short anyway, but uh.

Let's see here good discounts in the market. That's for sure, even tesla's down substantially today. Yeah, look at that 3.61. Look at this uh this! This fail here.

Uh, you know we had the enthusiasm. Tesla was on the course to to a breakout here and uh just completely broke through it. Unfortunately, and again, a lot of this interest rate fears compression. I really think it's overdone, but it's all right.

This is the time to build the portfolio. Oh ooh, look at that supreme court. Justices cast doubt on biden, workplace vaccine rule. That's a big deal uh so that that might end up getting uh canned wall street using tech firms like zillow to eat up starter homes.

We saw that this morning, let's see if there's any other particular news, coveted fraudster, who bought property in tesla stock with stolen cash, is caught scammed, 3.4 million in covet relief loans wow. I wonder how many more people like this there are, who uh who are scamming? The system made millions buying 16 000 shares of tesla, but lost it all along with his free freedom. When the feds figured out, he had bankrolled his investments with proceeds from fraudulently obtained covered relief funds. Oh yeah, what people are doing is they're, creating fake companies basically or that's what they were doing to try to get these loans uh and uh, and they took millions of dollars out of ppp loans.

Yeah. Look at that lloyd transferred over 1.8 million of ppp funds to his e-trade securities brokerage account and purchased securities. Fortunately, for the government uh, they ceased to secure. These accounts containing another 660 thousand dollars in securities in cash wow order to pay four million dollars in fines.

Surrender real estate bought with ill-gotten money and forfeit his brokerage accounts valued at 18 million dollars burn. Well, that's what happens when you steal. That's crazy, created a paper trail. I should have used monero.

Oh that's, terrible! Uh! Oh well, uh! No! It's it's good! They got this guy uh. Look at this folks. Cryptocurrency market has fallen under 2 trillion dollars. We are now at 1.98 trillion dollars for the global cryptocurrency market and uh.

That is uh. That's a decline! That's uh! That's the first time under two in a while hmm thoughts on the lockup ending for lucid uh that is mentioned in their s1 yeah. I think it's bad, i think, there's a reason to short, lucid lucid's. Lockup is substantially larger by the way than matterport's lockup.

We were discussing this and strategizing about this in the course member live stream, quite a bit uh calculating exactly what the dates are of these things and and also the amounts so uh, yeah cool reminder. If you haven't checked out the course member live streams yet check those out, what a lot of people do is: they'll 2x, listen to the course member live stream as sort of like a standalone video, just the first part of it. Where i i share my thoughts on the market and strategies, i'm looking at or things i'm building out at the moment. Hmm someone here says.

Last time we saw btc go to 29k yeah. We did uh this summer and there was quite a bit of. I did quite a bit of crypto behind them. That was a fun trade.

Unfortunately, now uh crypto is rotating to the downside. All right, let's see, if there's any other actual news here other than the uh surprise hit there on jobs, omicron and the weak america is calling in sick. The w-e-e-k, not the w-e-a-k. Okay, hundreds of first responders in los angeles, are out sick or quarantined due to covet see.

These are things that are also going to hit on uh. The the fears that we see in the stock market is that we might end up having a weak q1 and that could be bad for uh for earnings that we could end up getting earnings. Reports that say hey you know: uh q4 was good, but uh we're seeing slow downs into q1, and so we have to provide lower guidance. That is a big risk for the stock market yeah.

So earnings season begins next friday morning with the banks, but yeah all right. Let's see here first full week of 2022, was supposed to signal a return to work after the winter holidays. Instead, america called in sick school closings. Child care issues have kept more at home.

Recent surgeon employ, i mean, look you you get sick you're, not going. I mean, hopefully, you're, not you're, not going out to restaurants. You're, not going shopping, you're, not really doing anything you're. Just you just existing yeah, so uh yeah, i mean yeah, it's possible! That q1 could be relatively weak anyway and that that guidance could be sort of uh that you could cover the covid slowdown under the blanket of weak q1 anyway sure uh, that is possible contact tracer at the spa, uh more than 5 million americans could be stuck At home, isolating over the coming days, wow the economic effects of the latest covet 19 search could be temporary, but it could deal a significant hit to the economy over the next month or two.

That's why you saw the shortening of uh covet, quarantining time frame from 10 days to five days if you are asymptomatic, so, okay, more talk about people uh, calling in sick not coming to work discussions about the impacts of this. It's it's a very good point. I mean in fairness, it is going to be an issue and i think q1 q2 could even be potentially soft because of these sorts of overhang. Here richard asks: how do you set up the buy, sell alerts from the stock program? Make sure you watch lecture 1.0 uh? Unfortunately, that's probably the most common question we get and i get it it's like you buy it and it's like all right where they looked.

It's like not. Everybody jumps right into the lectures right, um, but yeah lecture, 1.0 uh and you will have a step-by-step guide for what to do to get your buy and sell alerts uh in terms of what i'm doing with my portfolio and you get lifetime access to that. I don't know if i'm going to post alerts or live streams for life uh, but so far i really enjoy it. I don't get tired of it.

So, let's see tech stocks are sliding after jobs report. I mean not a surprise. Let's look at bond deals. Politics: ruined america - oh yeah, probably uh.

Well, actually i i. I disagreed. I kind of think that if you had a lot of cash on the sidelines, cash is really only getting hurt by inflation if it's being used to purchase things that are high on inflation. So, for example, if you go to cash just because inflation is six or seven percent does not mean that your dollar devalued by six or seven percent, and i think this is something that that is very frequently screwed up essentially in this in the markets, as people Think, oh cash is trash because inflation's wearing away.

That's only true if you need that cash to go shopping. If that cash is there because you're setting it up as an opportunity for buying stocks that are deflating well, then then you're you're winning you're playing the game. Very well, you know i was uh. I was very cash heavy uh going into the uh crashing market that we had in in december uh.

Unfortunately, it kept dipping i'm grateful that i went cash heavy when things were high, so i took a lot of profits, uh and and prepared, and now i've been able to lower my cost basis, but that doesn't mean i'm still not down now right, not maybe not Over overall down - but it certainly means like i'm down from that point, because it's kind of like this, so let's say you own a stock that you bought at 150. It runs to 300. You sell it at 280, you rebuy it at 220. So you just caught.

You just avoided a 60 loss there right, that's a 20 loss. You avoided, but then the stock went from 220 to 200 and it still dropped another 10. Well, you still lost that 10 right, like you're, still you're still in it that in something the last 10 percent. But if you did a sell and then a rebuy and they kept going at least you you didn't lose that 20, you kind of got off the roller coaster.

While it was going down, got back on close to the bottom. You don't necessarily have to be perfect to timing, but that's still a win. That is a harder to quantify win. You know it's harder to show that off to your friends and family.

Like look, i lowered my cost basis on a money losing stock. Nobody cares. First of all, 90 of people - that's just gon na go like no idea what you just heard. All i heard is money losing, and that sounds bad.

Why are you in something that loses money that that's like 90 percent of their action? You probably get so it's! It's not something that that really enables you to have much uh social pride uh until, of course, in the future, things start rotating up again uh. So, let's see here mp, materials for evs red wire space uh, for i don't know for something else here yeah. I don't know anything about red wire space um. Your hundred dollars is not dropping five to seven per month.

No remember the inflation rate is uh five to seven percent per year and again your hundred dollars is not affected by that, if it's profitable, why does it need a spac merger to list a spec merger is just a substantially faster way to go to market. It's not necessarily cheaper, but uh yeah. It is. It is a substantially fast way to uh the list.

Abb for av plays uh appb. All you get is abbott uh, abb, the automation, oh yeah, the automation, company, no uh. I i thought about it for industrial robots but uh i'd like, for example, tesla didn't buy from abb they're buying from some private uh institutions or companies. I'd love to be able to buy uh some automation companies.

The problem with abb is massive massive labor issues, uh, which i've mentioned before, is very ironic - that the company that makes robots to replace humans is having issues getting humans to make the robots i'm not in hippo right now, i'm completely out of insurtech uh minus. Maybe a little straggling shares a few sitting at the bottom of a brokerage account somewhere, but uh nope nope, not not bullish on uh insure tech right now, unfortunately, etsy almost down a complete six percent folks, that is a rotation down within the day. Let's uh, let's see how we're doing going heading into the close, it is 12 51. We've got eight and a half minutes to go.

Let's see how the spy is performing, uh spies, mostly flat see, we have a very similar v-shape as to yesterday, take a look at this. We go into the uh the five-minute chart. Look at this v-shape look at the v-shape yesterday, v bottomed out, 465. Yesterday, bottom now, it's 464 66 today, but those those v-shaped dips, here's another one of those v-shaped dips.

Of course over here it was trading for uh the mid-470s, but anyway that that beginning of the morning crashed there kind of kind of interesting how we continue to see that uh, okay, so space infrastructure, yeah, i'm not interested in space infrastructure too early. For me all right, how is how are our bitcoins doing, uh and, of course, the other crypto, so we have yeah, we still actually have a little bit of a recovery. That's good! That's good! A little bit of recovery after the pain of this morning. Remember folks.

Next pain, catalyst, if you don't yet have a sticky note! Okay here, let me show you the sticky notes that you need okay hold on hold on a second. I have them right here. This is what you need. You need lined sticky notes, uh and changing colors.

Okay, the changing colors are really really important because uh you can, you should use, don't only use one pad. You should use the different colors, because when you stick them to your computer, every little notepad you use should be a different color, because otherwise you get numb to it and then you, you, don't actually use it, but anyway, these are. These are the things you should have. If you don't already have like some kind of notepad, you can regularly look at, but the problem, for example - and i know this - the problem with with my notepad is - is oftentimes.

When i turn the page, i don't necessarily need to go back to the prior page unless i'm looking something up. So if i wanted to make a little note like make sure to dump this option or do something in the stock market, different colors, uh, nice, vibrant little lined uh. What are these like, four or five by fives, or something like that? These are great, very, very good tool worth it go, buy them not sponsored wish. I was uh okay, so let's keep going here.

Let's go to financial times for a moment all right. What do we got over here in the different wallpaper lecture? There you go, vinnie nailed it this it's the same psychology, oh okay, so okay, someone's starting a crypto fund, katie juan, is starting some form of crypto fund good for her uh. We've got aha republican democrat. I'm an oilocrat okay, hmm fed trading scandal, rekindled from disclosure from top official.

Oh, i want to see this richard clarida blamed inadvertent errors for failing to disclose the full extent of his trading activity at the start of the pandemic. Oh really tell us more. He previously disclosed, he had moved between one to five million from a bond fund to a stock fund on february 27 2020 man - that is a that - was a good freaking move. Those trades were controversial because they were made a day before jay powell signaled the fed was preparing emergency action.

However, amended disclosures show that three days prior to the already reported transactions, clarita sold between 1 and 5 million of shares from the same stock fund. Oh a little trade, so he paper-handed heard that things were going to be okay, bought back in good job new york times on exposing the truth: yikes uh, yeah, okay! Well, there you go so yeah got ta love the politicians, even though the fed is supposed to be apolitical. You know it's a politician's job. Hmm, let's take a brief look at this.

Look at this china's economy, the fallout from the evergrand crisis. Last month, the chinese state council government's most powerful organ, unleashed the wrath on an unusually small target, accusing officials in a country of just 660 000 people effectively extorting the private business sector. Okay uh. This is the local government in bazaar.

Just uh, 90 kilometers south of beijing seriously violated the government and communist party orders by embarking on a fee collection spree from small and medium-sized businesses, hit hard by the property crackdown wow. Just it's showing you the breadth of the damage that's being caused because of the uh, the property crisis. This looks really cool um series of campaigns targeting collective crackdowns, okay, more more china fud, especially leading up to zijinping's next election real estate sector has influence over practically every aspect of the economy. Financial markets and society makes it a hugely thorny issue: hugely thorny, okay um.

At least it's not a huge thorn but uh okay. So what why see the issue with china is uh, the more drama we get in that real estate sector, the more conservative, the chinese consumers are going to be in and that's why i think, there's been so much fear and uncertainty around neo or even x, bing, Which kathy would have started? Buying uh alibaba, which uh charlie munger started buying, actually not just started buying but doubled his position on okay, more more examples about uh distress. Let's just look at and see how the market is closing and wrapping up for the day uh. It does look like lucid's at now, a full 10 up a little bit of a rally into the clothes there on lucid.

The shorts are gon na, be a lot juicier on that one uh, the higher it goes, the harder it falls lemonade. Only up about five percent, not as great as what we had earlier arrival arrival 4.12. I wrote them on my short list of shorted companies to potentially pick up a rotation with, although we continue to see a lack of conviction in almost any kind of rally that we get just two percent on a few stocks. Here uh i mean a lot of things are up one to two percent: the big losers right now: dwack roku uh, owlette etsy.

It made it to that six percent at the close we're now 30 seconds away from the close. Let's go pull spy, yeah spy, doing its sort of usual rotation down here into the clothes. Let's get the bell. Uh we've got actually 20 seconds.

So we're a little premature on the bell here. Watch that watch that spy sell off into the clothes i'll tell you. It seems like every single closing day. It has been down into the clothes, not just the spy but also arc.

Here we go and industrials that do better in this period, where we're talking about fed tightening and a strong economy, the nasdaq underperforms again, it looks like to close down one percent lower small caps, also having a rough week down more than one percent on the day Off eleven percent from the highs there is the club there, you have it: uh dow jones industrial down 0.01 everything's red s, p down 0.41 nasdaq down almost another 1 at 0.96 russell down 1.2 percent boy - how the tables have turned compared to the uh. What we saw earlier today, okay um, so somebody uh somebody suggested. I look at this - this meme from the 80s uh they had memes in the 80s. What uh take a look at this okay on wall street today, news of lower interest rates sent the stock market up, but then the expectation that these rates would be inflationary sent the market down until the realization that lower rates might stimulate the sluggish economy, push the Markets up before it ultimately went down on fears that an overheating economy would lead to a re-imposition of higher interest rates.

Yeah, that's a good one! I like it. I like it. That's that's good, okay, folks, so uh today is today's friday, so we're off for the next two days. You could sleep your pain off.

You can chill and relax. I think the crypto markets will continue to be active, we'll see if they they continue to trade down. Uh i didn't hold my lucid calls over the weekend. I hope i don't regret taking 300 percent.

I don't think you should regret that honestly take some of your money and if you want you can rebuy some lucid calls on monday. You don't need to pay the theta decay over the weekend. Forget that why pay to rent it over the weekend when you don't have to so uh very exciting that we are getting close to cpi data, i don't know if it's nerve or exciting, but uh. It's coming yeah that cpi data is wednesday.

Looking at bonds, the 10-year treasury did rotate up to almost 1.77 and the u.s two-year fell a little bit to 0.87 down from that 9 that we saw earlier. So what else do we have here after hours too early to see any particular movers in the after hours and uh on the day, emeryn really held onto its gains? Lemonade lost half of its gains, gamestop lost a substantial portion. Almost most of its games again still ended up well even trade desks rally where it ran up to about 600 percent rotated down a little bit. Uh trade desk now only up 2.6 and of course, we have substantially more pain over at companies like etsy and roku.

As well as docusign and the crypto space so painful times, but uh, they are, as i always say, the best times to build a portfolio. You don't want to build a portfolio when everybody everybody in the comments is like. Is it too late to buy this? Is it too late to buy this buy when there's pain and we've got plenty so uh keep working hard go make some money if you want uh, if you want some more insights into how to handle uh operating with your portfolio or or what to be thinking, Think about checking out the program on stocks and psychology of money. It's not financial advice, but really really great insights for building your wealth, use that coupon code there's a birthday coupon code that my birthday is coming up soon kind of crazy i'll be 30..

But you get lifetime access to these and there's no upsell once you're in uh, although uh a lot of people, i've also been checking out that uh. Since i pitched it this morning, the wealth course the path to wealth, wealth which is different but anyway check out the links down below for those and we'll see in the next one. Thanks so much for being here. Folks, we'll see.