What's going on guys welcome back to the channel uh, i've tried to make this video like 15 times, but i just can't deliver it the right way. So i'm just gon na stop trying, and i want you just to follow, along with everything in the video step by step and if a big old light bulb does not blast off by the end of this video, then i probably failed, but i would be very Surprised if it doesn't so please, please please stay tuned for the whole video. I will try to be fun entertaining uh while covering a lot of cool stuff about the market, and that's it i'm not going to make it a couple years. Let's go watch it listen.

Please kind of strength could maybe do a short scalp here. So the first attempt of breaking out this resistance. We could do a short scalp again um that very well could lead us down to retest the weekly, if not break the weekly and then not break the daily, so uh. The way i'll start today is probably watching markets bullish to at least get to here.

If we break above then i'll look for pullbacks to hold above 450 and go long off of uh, if those pullbacks look weak, then we'll look to short down um but yeah i mean that's basically it i mean we're not breaking out till above this, so we Can still go up, hit resistance come down unless we go over, then we'll look for over pull backs and hold it go long. If, for whatever reason, i missed this - and it goes all the way down and we're breaking down this - i won't chase the short down i'll wait for the pullback to retest the weekly and if we can remain below the weekly, then i'll, add short and see. If we can go on a full breakdown um, i think that probably covers probably everything for today. All right guys youtube.

So that was me uh in the morning before the market, open kind of running you down what you can expect to see based on the way the market is structured. So it was my belief that the markets would most likely kind of stay trading back and forth from the day, maybe ranging from that 450 cent price to the 398. That's why i kind of drew that big up and then that v shape down saying this is kind of one of those probabilities we can see. So what i want to show you now are the most active option chains on the qqq all right.

So if you look specifically just in this video, this was this morning. This is again, this is new year's eve. 12. 31.

2021. This is my pre-market analysis, suggesting what we can possibly see more or less probably see, remember, probably see because the trend lines you see on my chart they're probability levels. Okay, so the lines we have on my chart are probability levels so that analysis, i'm putting forth is something that you can probably see not a guarantee, but probably since the market is a game of probabilities. So if the markets can probably trade up to 450 cents and then they could see resistance and trade all the way back down to 398, then if i were to look at the options that are traded for that day, it would make sense that we probably wouldn't Want to trade option calls higher than 450 because we have resistance there, which we don't quite know, is going to break out.

And if we were going to trade puts on the day, we probably wouldn't want to trade puts below the 398 level, because we have support there, that we've identified and we don't quite yet know if it's going to break down. So as it stands going into this morning, we could probably look to be bullish up to 450 cents and we could probably look to be bearish down to 398. and if that ends up being what happens in the market, then it would make sense that by the End of the night, the most active option chains for that current trading session and day would probably be 450s 401s to 398 to 399.. Now what i want to do is go look at the unusual options chain provided by unusual whales, so we're going to go into qqq here all right and we can go and see today's breakdown.

What this is going to tell us is the options activity today, and this is the most active option chain. So, let's see what were the most active option chains today for qqq 400 remember our target pre-market going into the open was 450 hottest, most active chains 400. Why not 402? Why not 404, because we had targets to 450 and we could only go to 404 405 if we broke 450. so to start day, it's not probable! That you'll find your calls going in the money trying to call the market up to 405 or 404 when we only see a reason to call it up to 450 for now and then, when you scroll down just a bit, the next most active option chains end Up being the 398 puts, and the 399 puts again when we look at the market today on the qs, you will see we went up to 450 snapped down to 398.50.

So when we look at the most active put chains, it would make sense that 398 and 399 are the most active put chains, because when we look at the market we found it highly probable, we could test 398.50, we have levels there, but we can't really go 397. 396. 395S. Until we break those levels so going into the morning pre-market thinking about it, it doesn't really make sense to me to try to call the market up higher than 450, and it doesn't make a lot of sense for me to try to put the market down further Than 3.98, so this is, what's going on, in my mind, pre-market starting the day come 4 pm.

I want to double check my work, and what do you know 400? Is the hottest call 390 and 399s are the hottest put which lines up perfectly with the analysis? Put forth this morning, so the reason i'm bringing this to your attention is because you can look at the most active option chains on unusual whales and think that, because you're seeing unusual activity or because it is the most active chain that that means something is going To happen it could, but it a lot of times means when they're on the most active, especially when we're talking in terms of day trading. The move has probably already happened. Okay, now, i'm not going to get into open interest for right now. This video could be so much longer than it needs to be, but that's specifically what i wanted to talk about is how there are ways of gauging what should or what could probably be the best or hottest option chain for the day, without even looking at any Options data so another way of me showing this to you would just be going through another couple examples, so i know everybody likes apple, so we'll look at apple, so we're going to go aapl.

Okay, these levels right these levels, you see on the chart all right. This big one and this one up here those are already plotted. So when i woke up this morning, i rubbed my eyes and i drank a cup of coffee and i turned on my computer. Those were there, i didn't put them there this morning.

They were already located there, okay, so this morning, when i wake up my analysis without going too far in depth being confusing, the analysis would basically say max long 180. 80. for now, first target down 177, 40, 177 50., only more bearish below this big yellow line. So the way i would say is there are two levels that we can try to get to.

One on the long side would be 180 up there. What not on the downside 177.50 all right, so those would be sort of the two levels that i would expect. The markets could go to if the markets - don't trade well, we'll probably go to 177.50. If the markets do trade well, we have the potential to go to 180 50..

So if that's true, then i would expect that the 180s should be the hottest call chain right, because there was a portion of the market that was trying to run it to 180 50. and then the 177 50s to 177s or whatnot should probably be like the Hottest put chains all right, so let's go look at apple. So let's look at the most active chains for apple today, so we go to apple. Your most active chains, 180s and most active, put chains.

177. 50.. Interesting all right. Another example roku all right, so roku um, which i traded poorly.

I actually took a loss on this one. Today i got a little jumpy and wanted to try to break the market out, ended up, reversing and going short so all said and done. Things are fine and dandy, but this is another great example all right, so you will see that this morning i wake up. I drink my cup of coffee.

I rub my eyes and what do we have? We have a level at 2 35 and we have a level at 2, 40, 40.. So, to start this morning, when we wake up - and morning starts the highest probability, levels that we should touch on the long side would be that of 240 48 and the highest probability levels that we should touch on. The downside should be 235. now, as you can see, the market breaks that and we fade out.

You don't necessarily know 100 that we're gon na break here and fade out even more. That's always sort of the unknown. So when you woke up this morning and roki starts trading, people are buying calls and puts the most active chains are going to be 240s 241s and they're going to be these. You know 235s or something like that, because those are the two highest probability levels that we could probably touch now when you started this morning, you probably didn't know that roku is going to fully fall all the way to 228, but you see we have a level There all right that is a pre or sorry.

No, it's not there all right. We do have a level. It is right, sorry, right down here, that's where my next level is at which we did not get to all right. So there is a level here.

Arguably there could be a monthly, so i'll. Just add that in case, let's see, um doesn't look so all right, so you will see that we do have a level all the way down to 224 as well. So, nonetheless, when we look at roku today, i would expect that your 240s, the 241s, are the hottest calls because we have levels there and your 235s end up being the hottest puts. Arguably, someone tried to yolo 224s 225s.

Let's check it out all right, so we go to roku all right. What do you know? 240S hottest call. First, then we go to 245s. Okay, and actually it doesn't matter so 240s hottest call all right.

Then the hottest puts are 230s and 225s into 35s um. So what did i say? Did someone try to yolo the 225s yeah? So someone tried to yolo 225s right because we have a level down there about 224.78 so like when this market broke down, we didn't really have any probability support level until there it's 225 right. So if this is probable that once we broke here, markets will go here before finding support, you would buy 225 puts all right um. So you know that's that i mean and and here's the deal i mean we can do this with it doesn't matter.

We can do this with anything uh. We could do. I mean like what did paypal do today? Paypal is kind of a trash example, but you know i'm trying to find good ones, so um amd so amd. This is probably you know.

This is. This is another one right. We have levels right here at 145, all right and then below that. Let's see where we have levels coming in, i mean there's nothing until kind of far away so anyways.

What you will probably end up seeing is that this ends up becoming 145.90 one of the hottest put chains right because we have targets there. So you know i don't want to bore you guys to death with the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over, but uh nonetheless, you're going to see those end up being what you know hottest put chain 145.. So why wasn't it? Why wasn't the hottest put chain 146? Why wasn't it you know one it doesn't. You know what i mean um so anyways that that's that's the video for you guys.

So what i'm trying to uh get is that i get get across. Is that you can look at the active option chains and um? You know think that there's a move coming because they're active when in reality the moves already happen um, so the market isn't as random as you think it is all right guys. You have a great new year's eve and i'll see you in the next one.