Welcome back to the channel everyone today, i want to explain what intarnation is going on with amc. Why is amc falling so heavily and why is amc not squeezing already, if ever grande are going bankrupt or have gone bankrupt, so stay tuned and let's make some money? And now i want to dive straight in with the key information. So amc has been going south since the new variant of the pandemic was discovered, but the new variant is mild. So why have i lost over half of my portfolio? Nobody is selling and we own 80 of the float, if not 90, of the flow.

So i don't really want to debate the first part of this post as my channel isn't a political or pandemic related channel. Obviously i talk about amc, so i want to really really simply explain exactly what's happening at the moment. So first i want to start by asking you a very simple rhetoric: question what causes the price of a stock to fall? Well, there's two main things: there's the selling of a stock and the shorting of a stock. Obviously price is determined by supply and demand.

So if there's tons and tons of supply so tons of shares being sold into the market or shorted, obviously the price is going to fall. So let's examine both of those the selling and the shorting. So, let's start by talking about the selling first, you've got retail selling, which probably isn't really happening, and you've also got institutional selling, which actually also probably isn't happening every single day from fidelity and weeble. You see the inflow being much much higher than the outflow.

There's always 70 75 80 buy orders compared to only 20 25 sell orders. Now you might say well tom, there could be people out there buying only one or two individual shares and when people are selling they're selling off their entire portfolio. Therefore, selling lots of shares, but i don't really think that's the case right now in december of 2021, and why don't? I think that, well, obviously the paper hand has left the gamestop and amc play long ago when amc ran up in january. There could have been many paper handlers that bought amc back then and then obviously sold in march.

Obviously, amc also ran up in june and therefore many new paper handers could have got in back in june, but they would have most likely all sold in either july august september october november or earlier in december, and therefore the actual likelihood of a paper hander still Being in amc and still holding amc after five or six months, only to sell amc right now, yesterday or today is very, very unlikely. Any paper handlers that bought in back in june and july would have most likely been faked out either on this first step on the 14th 15th of july, or maybe the second dip that broke below those lows back at the start of august, or maybe even here Back in september, or again here in october, if there were any paper pandas in amc, they would have most likely sold on this break of the lows here in august or tried to hang on for the bounce back upwards and sold here in september and if they Missed that sale they probably would have sold down here at the end of september, and therefore the current dip that's being caused here at the start of december, and right now, yesterday on the 13th of december, is not being caused by paper handlers selling their shares because Well, they had the opportunity to sell many many times over over the last five or six months, guys right now. You can currently get five free stocks, valued up to three thousand five hundred dollars, each and being with the chance of winning an iphone 13 pro and other goodies every single day this month until christmas, when you sign up with moomoo, all you have to do is Sign up to moomoo, using the link in the description below and open your account to get that first free stock. When you make your first deposit of any amount, even if it's only one dollar, you also get that second free stock.

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Again i don't really think there's a huge chance of institutions selling either because they've been adding to their amc positions in quarter, one quarter two and quarter three. So if institutions have been buying amc as high as 40 50, maybe even 60 dollars a share, why would they be selling now for around 20 a share? Obviously, that would be a 66 loss and i don't think any large institutions would be happy reporting to their investors that they suffered a 66 loss this year. I wanted to show the 2008 volkswagen chart as a prime example. Now obviously, everybody's seen this chart many many times over, but most people obviously just pay attention to this massive rep from around and ten dollars a share all the way up to around a thousand dollars a share, but what most people aren't paying attention to? Is this giant move upwards from around two hundred dollars a share to four hundred and forty dollars a share before this giant drop back downwards to around 200 a share so back in september and october of 2008, porsche would have been buying volkswagen here at 200.

A share they would have also been adding to their position at 280, a share and they would have been buying more and more at 320, 360 and 400. A share now at this point volkswagen probably would have had a price average of around 300, maybe 350 dollars per share. This is the same as having an average price on amc as 30 to 35. A share now porsche would have been forced to hold through these very very red two weeks.

Their volkswagen price would have gone from around 400, nearly 440 dollars per share all the way to 210. That's the same as amc falling from around 44. A share to 21 per share, but porsche held all of their shares and did not sell any now. Most importantly, if porsche can hold from 440 a share all the way down to 210 dollars a share and then during the squeeze to a thousand dollars a share.

Then you can do it too, but, most importantly, if porsche can hold through that downturn, then obviously vanguard and blackrock can hold their amc. Now. Absolutely i completely understand that blackrock and vanguard may be forced to be selling some of their amc shares and some shares in many other companies because of the billions they've had to write off due to evergrande going bankrupt. But again we forget that institutions only hold around 30 percent of the legal flow.

That means they only hold around 30 percent of the 513 million shares, or around 130 150 million shares, which is nothing compared to the total amount of shares in existence, including all of those synthetics, because we own the float, say: 2, 3, 5, 10 20 times over And therefore, institutions with their 150 million shares - and they may be having to sell 10 or 20 million shares, is nothing compared to the total amount of shares that are out there and the total amount of shares that are being purchased and bought on a daily basis. From us retail investors, so i think we've established that it's not retail selling, that's causing the price of amc to fall, and it's also not institutional selling. That's causing the price to fall. So the only other option is the shorting of amc shares.

Now, very, very simply, if institutions and short hedge funds are shorting more amc, what does that mean they're not doing well, if they're shorting more shares that means they're not covering their existing shorts and covering all of their shorts and therefore, ultimately, that means that amc play Is still on because it means these hedge funds aren't closing out of their shorts and they've, already doubled and tripled and quadrupled down on their shorts, but it now just means they're, 5xing and 6xing and 7xing down on their overall short position. Something i wanted to bring your attention to is the absolute ridiculous number of short exempt shares we saw traded yesterday with 1 million short exempt shares being traded or one million short exempt shares actually being shorted. This is the highest number of short exempt shares. We've seen been traded ever.

Obviously, we have seen some days of 600, nearly 700 000 shares being marked as short exempt, but we were much used to seeing only one hundred thousand or two hundred thousand shares being marked as sure exempt. This goes to show the price action yesterday was pretty much entirely manipulation and naked short selling. That's why the price was dropped so severely, and that's why there were so many shares marked as short exempt. Now you might say: well tom, they can continue manipulating this stock.

Maybe forever yes in a way, that's technically true, but it's also not true as well. Obviously, if they're manipulating the amc stock, that means they're, shorting more shares and not covering more if they do decide to switch and cover. They'll have to first cover their new shorts, which will bring the price of amc back to 40 or 50 or even 70. And then cover their existing shorts before that which would cause the amc short squeeze now.

On top of this, it also costs us nothing to hold our shares, but it does cost the hedges a lot of money. Maybe yes, they're, not paying a lot in. That short borrow fee, but they're paying a lot to transact and reset their filtered delivers and reset their overall naked short position, and, on top of this they're tying up all of their collateral in positions that they can't close out of meaning that, if any of their Other positions dropped and they get margin called they won't be able to meet their margin calls. So now.

Let's also talk about that. Surely, if ever grande have now defaulted, how are the hedgies still meeting their margin? Calls if the evergrande bonds have gone from aaa rated to d for default, why haven't they yet failed? A margin, call and been liquidated. Now. I think the main reason is yes: their ever grinded bonds have defaulted and they can no longer use the evergrande bonds as collateral, but they're trying to get cash in the door from any other place possible.

Maybe they're selling off treasury yields to get more cash for their stock position. Maybe they're liquidating their crypto positions to get more cash to meet their margin. Calls now it'd be very, very obvious if hedges are liquidating their crypto positions because we'd be seeing massive massive drops in the crypto market, but as far as i'm aware, i don't think the crypto market has been falling that much recently, oh wait um! Actually! Yes, yes, it has. We've seen bitcoin down seven percent over the last week, ethereum down 12 percent over the last week, solana down 20 over the last week, we're seeing she being you down avalanche, pretty much.

Every single cryptocurrency is down over the last week other than dogecoin because it got pumped by elon musk last night. This means that hedges are pulling out any kind of cash necessary from the crypto markets in order to meet their margin requirements in the stock market, but obviously, when they exhaust all of this cash they'll have to move on to the next thing and the next thing Or maybe they've got nothing left after exhausting their cryptocurrency money, and maybe after this they won't be able to meet their margin. Calls, as dr quantrillion says, covering can only be done by buying shares from the open market from those who hold them. Not even the large institutions hold enough for them to close their short positions with yes, the institutions hold around 150 million shares, but the shorts have shorted many times that flow over, because that's why there's so many synthetic shares and they've been shorting those shares and selling Them directly to us, so they need to buy those shares back from us in order to close their short positions.

As he says, retail owns the float many times over and therefore we set the price now something very important. I wanted to pay attention to in the wider market. Is the u.s debt ceiling? Obviously, back in november jeanette yellen said the us could run out of cash by mid-december if congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling again now. Obviously, today it's the 14th of december.

So it's practically mid-december and schumer says the senate will vote to raise the debt ceiling on tuesday, which is today now after some potentially encouraging or discouraging words from donald trump. It will be interesting to tune into the vote later today to see how it goes and how much the debt ceiling gets raised by if it is raised. Now i also wanted to talk about the upcoming loot print and gamestop announcement, which is likely to be announced. This week, potentially today on tuesday, he said we know the announcement will happen in quarter four, and this is the only week remaining in quarter four that makes sense.

He said i worked at a fortune 500 company and have worked to other fortune 500s throughout his career, and he can tell you three things. He said large corporations often make big announcements after earnings calls to avoid the calls being taken over by the announcement gamestop. Having just had their earnings called last week on wednesday makes this week the perfect time to announce. He said every fortune 500 office is virtually empty.

The final two weeks of the year as people take holiday during the holidays and burn remaining pto again making this week the perfect time to announce, and he also said that large corporations often release announcements on tuesdays. Everyone is usually getting their stuff together and lining. On mondays and therefore tuesday allows for maximum exposure through the remainder of the week now, even though that is obviously a bit of a trust me bro source, it does make sense. I've personally got the last two weeks of work booked off because i tend to take holiday and see family around the christmas periods.

Now, potentially, the announcement may be delayed and the platform may not be ready until quarter one of 2022, but we've not had any updates suggesting that this is the case so far, they're still working towards a quarter full release, basically meaning this week, guys be sure to Let me know down in the comments below what you think about amc's current price action and why you think amc is falling so heavily and guys if you want to pick up some amc related merch, like this space ape hoodie or my to the moon. T-Shirt. Be sure to check out my merch store down in the description below and as always guys, if you enjoyed this video, be sure to check out some others. Alternatively, subscribe to the channel and ding that notification bell, because that way, you'll be alerted when i upload a new video cheers.

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