Hey hey, what's up my friend, so welcome back to this month's all right price action analysis it's already december and it will be the final price action analysis for the year, it's the last month of the year. So to kick things off right. I want to share with you uh first one is euro canadian, it's a trade that i took, so let me kind of break it down to you step by step. You know why i took this trade entry stops exits and stuff like that and for those of you who are new to this right, so the monthly price action analysis video we pretty much covers.

You know my trading from a discretionary trading standpoint uh my thought process and i share with you a few trading opportunities right, usually trending market opportunities right in the coming days or weeks. So quick one is uh euro canadian. You can see that overall, this market is in a downtrend price. It has recently broke below this area of uh support.

Okay broke below it all right, then it came back re-test. This uh, not quite this area, but this swing high over here. So why is this a significant right so going down right to the eight hour time frame? Let me just illustrate to you right so at this point, okay, you can see that the market on this time frame retested this area of resistance. Okay.

So, what's the swing high that i marked earlier on the daily timeframe so notice, the price action price came up into it once got rejected, or rather just made a pullback into this previous resistance, which became support and then staged another rally taking out this heist and Then taking out this highs over here, so it is at this point right i to be honest at this point, i am not looking to short this market because you know the price is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Why would i want to be shorting right to against this bullish momentum? So i'm looking for signs of crack in this market signs that know the sellers are coming in stepping in right and about to push the price lower. Only then right would i look to enter a trade. So another thing to point out is that at this high right at the point where i was taking a trade, this high, i believe, was the previous week high so euro canadian, at this point or not now, but at this point when i'm taking a trade, this Is the previous week high now? Why is this significant is because euro canadian right is one of those currency pairs that whenever it re-tests the previous week's highs or low, it has a tendency to reverse right from there.

So, for example, if it retests the previous week high there's a good chance, it could reverse lower from there. Based on your statistical data based on backtesting, and of course, i don't just blindly short when euro canadian reaches the previous week high. I look for multiple confluence factor right. I look at the price action.

We look at the statistics. We look at patterns right before we time our entry. So let's look at the story so far, euro, canadian. So far it's in the downtrend, then it came towards this area of value, which is an area of resistance.

Let's call the area of value first, then we know that euro canadian is one of those currency pairs where it has a tendency to reverse. At a previous week, high or low, so in this case, if we tested the previous week high, let's call it a weekly high right previous week, high okay, and so the next thing i'm looking for it's an entry trigger. So this came in the form of a very simple basic candlestick patterns in this case over here. So we have two bearish candles - the first one over here, but this one here, i'm not convinced, because you can see that there's a long lower week below signaling no buyers stepping in pushing the price higher.

But this kind of like sealed the deal for me when the price closed right, lower near the lows of this candle. So i went short. I had a cell limit order somewhere about here. Pretty much got filled, as you can see over here got fuel because the market went against me and my stop-loss right is somewhere about here.

180 are above the highs, so as of right now, the price - it's uh kind of against me slightly in the rate for this currency pair, but hey still sharing that this is part and parcel of trading, something something you win sometime. You lose right, but the key thing here is to understand the thought process to you know why you know i'm looking to enter the trade, and one thing to add is how am i going to manage this trade? Is that as of right now, i have marked two orange lines for this current week. This is the previous week high. This is the previous week low.

So, since i know that this currency pair has a tendency to to reverse right at the previous week, high or low, i'm looking right to see how it reacts at this level over here this previous week low. If it comes into that level and then there's a bullish price rejection, like you know a hammer and engulfing pattern, i'll manually exit the trade, but if you just collapse down lower right and slice through that level easily like a hot knife through butter, i'm looking to Take my profit right at this area of support over here right, so that's kind of the game plan right if the market moves in my favor. But what, if the market right moves against me? Well, i get stopped out and move on to the next trade. That's it right, so simple, uh, pretty straightforward stuff, so another thing to share with is a dollar against this thing.

So this is a trade that i miss but again the top process. I would say it's it's worth, uh sharing right, because it's the same concepts that i've been sharing over and over again. So if you look at the dollar us dollar against singapore dollar, you can see that overall, this market is in an uptrend. Then it came towards this area of value at previous resistance resistance resistance, which could become support so, while on the eight hour timeframe or even a daily timeframe, actually right, but we'll just use the eight hour time frame notice right how the price reacted at that level And give you a valid entry trigger to go long in the form of a bullish engulfing pattern.

So i missed this trade, but but you can see right this concept right. It can be applied to other currency pairs as well. So again, if i had seen this one, what i'll do is i'll, i'm usually a cheapskate i like to place a buy limit order. A few pips below the closing price stops one atr below the low possible target again just before this swing high.

So, just sharing with you a trade that i missed right now this week so moving on. Let me share with you some other trading opportunities that i'm looking at for this uh coming month. So, as mentioned, i like to trade, a trend so many of these trading opportunities, they're all trending market, so first one euro against swiss franc. This is daily time frame.

What is the trend down right, so you can see that this strong bearish momentum towards the downside right in this case, if you are trading on a daily time frame, it can be difficult to time your entry, because you can't really analyze the pullback right before you Can even analyze the pullback, the market just continues to slide down lower. So this is where it's useful right. If you go down to a lower time frame to time your entry, in this case the four hour time frame. So in this case, you can see that let me just overlay with the 50ma notice, how this currency pair and on this timeframe, bounce off the 50ma once twice three a number of times, so the next uh possible, or rather the area of value i'm looking at, Is over here around the one, zero four five level to see if the market can make a pullback into this area of value, this area of resistance right have the confluence of the 50 period moving average and then make a bearish reversal could be in the form Of a shooting star, a bearish, engulfing pattern, etc.

Then i'm looking to short on next candle open stops can go 180 above the highs possible target. Just before this swing low. For those of you who wants to ride the trend, you can use a trailing, stop loss to to write the move down lower okay. So this is a euro against the swiss franc.

Another potential trading setup is dollar against the chinese u.n. So this one again uh you can see that overall, this market is towards the downside. If you just zoom out right, you can see this. This market is in a downtrend, it's in a long term, downtrend and recently right, i'm seeing weakness because i see a series of lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs coming into this area of support, and that to me is a sign of weakness.

This tells me that the buyers they have difficulty pushing the price higher, because if the buyers, the buying pressure, is strong right, they should be able right to you, know, break out of this previous high or whenever or any attempt to push up how you should be At least break out above this high it couldn't each time the rally occurs, so it gets weaker and weaker. This to me is a sign of weakness and i'm looking to trade right the breakdown on this on this market. So again, how do you trade this very simple, stuff right when you trade, breakouts key thing, i'm looking for is volatility contraction, i'm looking for volatility to decrease? This is a concept that i've learned right from numerous traders. For example, one of them is mark minervini talks about the volatility contraction pattern in stocks, so in this case i'm applying to the forex market and i'm seeing volatility contraction over here range of the candles are getting smaller and smaller.

So the entry trigger is very simple. I'm just looking for a break and close below this area of support. Okay, when that happens, i'm looking to go short on the next candle open and i'm just going to trail my stop-loss right. If the market moves to lower in my favor initial stop-loss will go one atr above this high somewhere about here.

So we'll see right if the breakdown occurs, if it continues to move in my favor i'll just you know trail my stop-loss all right and write the trend down lower if it reversed against me bomb. I'm out of here just hit my stop, then i'll exit the tree, okay, so so moving. Alright, let's have a look at the stock market. So a quick overview of the u.s stock markets.

You can see that overall, it's still bullish. It's still in an uptrend. How do i know that? Because that's what the chart says right just a little bit of context, if you just look back on the smp 500 over the last 12 months or so price heads up higher pulls back heads up higher pulls back heads up higher, pulls back higher, pull back higher, Pull back higher, pull back higher pull back, then you know this one over here pull back higher right now we are making a pullback, so i wouldn't be overly contact. I would be concerned if the market will were to break and close below this key level right.

So that's telling me that you know medium term right, uh, there's some bearishness in the stock market. If you can break and close below 4300 right uh, i would say you know there was some there'd be some minimum term right i'll, be you know more towards a bearish on the stock market by itself right now, if the level holds right, i'm still a short-term Medium-Term and a long-term bullish on this stock market, so as of right now, stock market is making a pullback. The pullback is nothing significant because if you look at the depth of the pullback, it's pretty much within the realms of expectations right over the last few months or the depth of this pullback. The depth of this pullback, the depth of this pullback.

The depth of this pullback right now we're making a pullback of about 200 points thereabout, so nothing too uh frightening, so looking for buying opportunities in the stock market. So there's a lot of stocks to choose from so one thing to share with you: is this one? Over here is zws. This is the one i'm looking at right now, so you can see that this stock. Overall, it's in an uptrend series of higher highs and higher lows.

I overlay with the 50ma. You can see that price respecting this 50ma as well tested once twice three four five, and we are back here once again, five times thereabout and if i zoom in a little bit right. This is also having the confluence of this uh area of support. Okay, then, we have actually a false break, all right notice that, on thursday price closed higher back above this area of support friday, we have a slightly down day so overall right if this level holds right.

I expect this stock to re-test back this highs over here. So i would say this could be a potential buying opportunity to go along on this stock in the short term right, your stop-loss again can go 180 hr below this lows right. Let's say you buy on this uh around this entry point right where the price closed. On friday, so from the entry to this highs right there, there's about potential one-to-one risk reward ratio on this trade.

So this would be the size of your stop-loss, and this would be a potential target for those of you looking to capture a swing. So there's one potential stock trading opportunity to share with you as well and by the way, if you, if you enjoy such market analysis me, you know dissecting identifying the best trending markets in a forex commodities or stock market. Then you might want to check out pro traders age. This is a weekly uh.

This is a weekly report right where i share with you the best trending markets that i'm looking at each week. So you get my ideas right in a video format for the for about 10 minutes. 12. 15 minutes each week.

Right. You get this report where i break down to you just like in this video the markets, i'm trading where i'm looking to enter exits and which are the best trading markets right now. So of course, i go much deeper. I give more uh trading setups in the forex and stock commodities.

So again, if you're interested to get or be part of this, our pro traders have a membership. You can just go down to trading with reynolds.com pte i'll, put the link somewhere below this video. You can check it out right if it's a good fit for you. So with that said, i wish you good luck.

Good trading, i will talk to you soon.