What's going on guys welcome back to the channel the whole omicron thing is probably the best news ever the market's going down. This is going to provide you guys with some really good opportunity um, so i'm just going to as quickly as i can map off all the levels for the qqq's. Let you guys know what those are and just kind of how i'm thinking about playing it. For next week, um and we'll just see how it plays out.

So if you're new to my channel you're going to have absolutely no clue what i'm doing so, you're just going to basically pay attention to the levels afterwards. If you are or have been tuning into my channel regularly, then you know exactly what i'm doing and we're also going to talk about something a little new as well, which is just using the one year weekly chart. So if you use a standard deviation system like i do make sure you use the one year weekly chart as well, it is providing a lot of significance that i did not previously pay attention to, but at the end of the day, the weekly and the one Year day and the 180 day four hour all provide a very similar price zone. So you'll see what i'm saying in just a second.

So when we switch to the one year weekly chart, you will see that in between the two solid whites right now we have the weekly level. So i've been plotting the weekly level recently and i've just been increasing the size of that trendline width to five. So it stands out um in relation to all the other trend lines. So i know that these are my four hours and dailies and if it's really thick, then that's a that's a big weekly level.

So um you guys if you watched my last video talking about the market we had predicted. The market would basically go to here, 389, but it stopped at 383 977, and i didn't know why, until i looked at the weekly chart and realized that the long-term weekly statistical mean came into play right at 390.50, which was probably the reason we got buying action. All in that little bottom, as opposed to fading out all the way to 388.85. Again, like i was saying, if you're newer to my channel you're, probably gon na, have no clue we're talking about.

But if you've been watching my channel for any bit of time, you're - probably well up to speed on this, so this is a very, very important time for the market. Basically, this thing can get clapped hard. So let's talk about that. What you're looking at is a standard deviation system when we plot this and look at this on a chart with no indicators, it becomes a little bit easier to look at because we don't have as many indicators and things that are kind of blinding our eyes.

So when you think about it like this, okay, maybe look at it like on a 20-day one-hour chart right now. The market is hanging on by a thread over. What's called a statistical weekly mean if we go through the big white and this one right here, this market can fall apart, all the way down to this trend line. So if we were to look at this on say a one day, five minute chart and kind of shrink this a little bit all the way.

Until we can see the bottom dotted, white line from the big white line to that dotted white line would be a decrease of 2.45 or a drop of a thousand points. 900 yeah a thousand points, okay to the first dotted white line. So yes, it is my belief that next week, if this market cannot sustain 390 389 dollars, you will then see this market fade out and break all the way down to minimum 381 on the qs, if not all the way down to 375. all right now, let's Take a look at the spy all right, so if we take a look at the spy, the spy is slightly different than that of the nasdaq.

But when we look at the spy, it's very similar, okay, what i want you guys to know is: when you break the solid white lines, you have big sell-offs. That's why you're seeing the spy kind of have this big yank it's, because it's sold through that white line all right! So when we were talking about the long-term weekly remember, it was a white line so yeah when the white lines break big shifts in momentum happen, whether it be bullish or bearish. So you will see once we get done, adding the white lines. You will see exactly where the market snapped right so remember.

We said when the white lines break or when the big long term weekly white line breaks in this price zone is where a big momentum shift tends to happen. So if we look at the spy all right, the spy had just broken the long term weekly the four hour and the daily to the downside. So we are currently obviously in a downtrending bearish move on the spy. If we go back to the daily chart, we then look down and say well, where is our next long-term statistical level in this case? Well, it's wherever this price is and we'll get to in a second, we look here.

We would say that our next long-term statistical deviation levels on the spy are here, which is a price point of 454 to 453. So with all this new scare in the market, i don't think it's going to subside by monday, or maybe even tuesday, so i believe, we'll probably see some bearish movement because i just don't think the market is going to shrug it off so quickly, um. So with that being said, i feel like our markets will shift a little lower, we'll see so with that being said, i feel like it's almost a guarantee. I know it'd sound dumb.

If that didn't happen, but yeah, i think it's almost a guarantee. You will see the spy at the price of 454 to 453 by monday morning, if not lower right. So the way it really stands is. This is like your last little line of hope for the spy right to hold in here, which it might hold for a bit and then break through, because if you don't hold that level on the spy, then your next level down for the spy is all the Way down to here, so let me color code this and then we'll get the price points in just a second.

So then, your next price zone of support is all the way down here and then we'll also do the weekly. So we can find that one um. So we'll just basically say this is the weekly it's it's close enough all right. So when we look at this on, say a five day 15 minute.

The way it stands is if the markets don't hold this level right here, this price zone of 454 to 452, then the next snap leads you down to 445 to 440.. So right now we're in a downtrending market. I believe that it's almost a guarantee um. The spy is going to see 454 452 monday morning and if we really get a big breakdown on, you know: tech stocks, the qqq and the spy.

I would say your max downside right now, for the spy is going to be 438. That's a very big downside to be predicting right now, but again, if this doesn't hold - and this whole thing really gets bent up to a big scare move, then yeah. I think you can see the market shifting all the way down to 438 on the spy, and you could either see well yeah and the qqq. You could see the qqqs all the way down to prices of 382 to 375., so yeah.

I do think there is a potential big bearish move here in the market underway um. So with that being said, we're going to be watching the downside monday. Now when we look at tvix, this is going to also kind of give you guys or not. Tvx um the vix.

Excuse me: when we look at the vix, you will see the vix is obviously up, so the fur gauge is up. If you look at where the fear gauge is on the four hour chart. Okay, we are right at the previous high right at it. The only difference between this time in the last couple times on this time frame is we spiked up to it.

We pulled back and then just went down right here we spiked up to it. We pulled back did like a little mini push and then down this time we gapped up just like the pass where we gapped up into it pulled back held now breaking the previous high. So is this a breakout? Remember two: the more times a price touches, a certain level, the more likely it is to break okay. This is the third attempt at this level, the more likely to br or the more you touch, the more likely you are to break, so i'm not sold that we're going to have such a quick bottom in the market.

Okay, now just for fun, i don't know if this works, let's sort of measure, how much of a move this sort of break was and how much the market decreased. So, with the most recent kind of gap down or gap up on the vix and the move down the market, the vix went up 38. Okay. So if we go look at the market, i guess we'll go back to here.

Sorry. So if we look at the spy, whether it be spy or qqq okay, so if we do look at this and we measure how far down this move was, i guess on that day, so we gapped down and we went down a total of call 2.8. 2.9 percent or 13.54 cents, so for 13.54 cents the vix went up about 38, okay, so the vix went up 38 and the market went down about 14.. Okay.

So, let's see if that sort of logic would still apply. So if the spy we're suggesting could maybe break down and go to as low as this, that would be another twelve dollars, so that would be twelve dollars down, which is about another two point: eight percent, which means the vix, should go up roughly another thirty. Eight percent or whatever this move was so this move was a move of um, eight dollars 38. So let's say another eight dollars up for another 12 down, so we go from here.

I would imagine i haven't counted, but it would probably line up with that big high over here. Let's see so, if we go eight dollars up, we're going to be right at that previous high, which puts us right at about a 34 or sorry, yeah, 30 gain or so 29 percent gain. So, based on the support levels that we see, the markets can get to with the big sell-off through our upcoming half deviation zone on the spy, which is at 454 to 452.. Leading us into 445 to 437 would be a downside move of 12, okay, which again, if that did happen, it would line up with the potential trade that maybe many are looking at for the vix, which is maybe a breakout over this high and if it broke Out over this high, what would we then go to next on the vix? We would probably target the next logical price action.

Resistance swing high area, which in this case excuse me, would be here which, ironically, is you - know eight dollars up 30 percent gain which currently lines up with the price valuation decrease in the market that we see. So i have no idea what's going to happen, but uh that should be a good video. So as a refresher and a recap, spy to me guaranteed prices you're going to see monday or just this week, you know 450 for 452. on a clean break of that big selling pressure down to 444 437, then i would start to look for long bias.

Consolidation in this zone, next right, if i'm going to get long for a reversal, dip buy it's probably going to be off this zone here or this one. If i see that the buying volume is good and we're not going to break down so pretty much, you know for those that are new or the way that we do this is you know when we're down trending we're going to target down to this target, and This might reverse the downtrend, so we'll look for kind of reversal, longs and consolidations, and if that fails, then we look for selling volume to break it again, and then we just target down to the next level and then once we get here, we go okay. This is support and we'll look to go long, and hopefully we get the long bias, consolidation that ends up breaking up and we're on to the uptrend and that's pretty much how it works. So each one of these deviation levels, one in a downtrend, is the downside target on the short and it's the upside long bias reversal trade location.

If that bottom holds, then we go into an uptrend awesome. If not, we break down lower. We target the next level down once we get there. We could close a short we flip long and then we look to see the consolidation bottom.

If it breaks out, we start a new uptrend great, and that is pretty much what we're going to be doing with the market going forward next week. All right guys take care.