Hey everyone me kevin here, so i wanted to give you an update on my short, which is uh really a hedge right. When i made my short video, i think a lot of people, they see a title and i'm like. Oh, my gosh three and a half million dollars short the market uh, this person's a bear, uh he's a suit uh. Let's try to squeeze them or whatever you can't really squeeze uh somebody who's, basically investing in an inverse etf, because they're swap contracts and it's not short interest.

This doesn't work that way. Um, it's really just the inverse performance of arc. Well, arc is up today right and a lot of stocks are up today, uh, they were actually down miserably this morning and what i'm gon na do is i'm gon na give you a breakdown of uh? What happened to my portfolio today so uh? How much did i lose, or how much did i make i'm gon na, provide that i'm gon na give you the exact numbers so uh, so here's the thing this morning, uh on on sort of a day-to-day trade this morning, was killing it absolutely killing it. Ark was down like two percent tesla was, was uh, uh uh up uh, i'm sorry, tesla was down four percent, the market looked pretty poopy doopy and it kind of reiterated okay well.

This is why you want to hedge a little bit right. Well, then, everything changed. Then we got the consumer spending data and consumer spending. Data came in so much higher than expected at one point: three percent growth month over month, people are basically taking the higher spend and the higher savings that they've had built up in personal savings.

Over the last few months to to really 18 months, when i say a few months - uh and the uh, the wealth effect of people feeling richer with their real estate, and maybe people wanting tax write-offs to go, buy crap towards the end of the year. That they're spending money like freaking, crazy and not so, and so consumer spending went through the roof and arc went from like negative. Two percent uh tesla went from negative four percent and a lot of other stocks went from big old negatives to all-time freaking new highs, uh arc went up like well, i think they closed somewhere around 1.6 or 1.7 percent on the day. Tesla ended up uh fractionally like point five percent on the day, which is a big recovery from the down that we were going to see.

Etsy was up substantially matter. Poor i mean etsy was up over six percent nvidia about three percent matterport substantially. We had some really fat, beautiful, incredible gains in the market today and a lot of it based on consumer spending, which is very very exciting. Now these are the kinds of stocks that tend to u-turn.

When we get food in the markets again, fudd might come from uh congressional uncertainty, government shutdown, uncertainty, covet uncertainty, that's usually when we expect consumer spending to decline. For example, somebody asked me hey kevin. You think you mentioned that you think that paypal is down potentially because of lockdowns in europe. Well, you know paypal is mostly online.

Wouldn't that be good for paypal, no, not necessarily because when you get also keep in mind that kathy sold paypal a few days ago or at least sold some of her paypal, while it's like big time down so she's not buying the dip on paypal but she's. Buying the dip on zoom uh, she thinks zoom's like a cisco. I i don't know how i feel about that. I mean i know.

Zoom does a lot of other things than just like. Oh, let me zoom, you uh, you know, chat services, phone services and some incredible things for their commercial clients, but i don't know, maybe because i'm not a commercial client, i'm not so familiar with that, maybe because she is she's more familiar with this or she spent The time to be familiar with it, but anyway good for her, so um uh, okay, so so we're we're uh. Where are we going with this? Ah, yeah paypal, coven, here's the thing when you have lockdowns in places like germany or austria, what you're actually doing is you're leading people to spend less money, even though the money they do spend is more likely to be online than in person generally. When we go into lockdown modes and areas, people overall spend much less money.

That's why consumer spending is so hot right now uh compared to, for example, when delta was really spiking in america at the end of uh july and beginning of august, going into september, because people are people are happy like they're going out they're, not so worried about Coveted in america now we got a red pill from pfizer that you can take uh, potentially i'm not sure if they got the eua, yet i don't think they did uh but soon you'll be able to take the red pill from pfizer. If you don't, if you're, not vaccine, you get sick or you're vaccinated, you still get sick, whatever right uh. So anyway, consumer spending usually goes down in lockdowns, whether it's online or in person, and it goes up when there are feelings of euphoria and right now, we've got the wealth effect. Pushing consumer spending to the freaking moon, uh supply chain issues make some consumers spending a lot harder.

It's a lot harder to shop, uh, nike, it's harder to shop, nordstroms or macy's. It's a lot easier to shop etsy. When you look at the stock charts, they tell the story for you, it's very blatantly obvious. So now, let's get to the point of my portfolio, i'm heavily exposed to things like etsy, matterport, tesla things that did very very well today.

I did hedge hedgehedgehedge is an insurance policy. In the event the market goes down. If the market goes up, it just means you have a lower net total return right. So i did the math i added up uh, just my largest accounts.

I added up my jp morgan, i'm up a little over 190 000, my weeble i'm up a little over a hundred and uh eighty-five thousand dollars, my robin hood up about forty thousand dollars, and so when, when i tie these together uh the exact math was well. That's not exactly this, i'm still getting around. I was about 420 000 that i'm up on the day, including the l that i took on sarc uh. Now, when i separate this, that means my entire portfolio was actually up 520 thousand dollars and my s arc position was down 100k.

Today, that's a lot on one position, but then again that's also a three and a half million dollar position, which is like a little fart. You know it's like a three percent move or whatever uh, and that's actually, i think my total, because arc started rallying a little bit into the close yesterday so anyway, yeah that position's down uh, it's a hedge, so my portfolio - and this is why i say like I'm when people misconstrue and think that oh i'm, i'm shorting the market now really i'm creating a little bit of an insurance policy. I i think i i don't know if i'm going to close this position early, because i do think we still have the potential for pain once the congressional drama comes around. I don't know if it's going to be worth holding on to the short through then, because i could lose a lot of money on that short position between now and then and then.

If the market falls, you know, maybe it makes sense to have that established a little bit closer to maybe when the congressional drama starts uh, which could be at the end of next week or the week thereafter. You know maybe sit out shorting for a week. I'm not going to make any changes. Well, i didn't make any changes today, but as soon as i make a change, as always, i'm going to send an alert in the stocks and psychology of money group, so everybody who's in there will get an alert anytime.

I make a change and i make it very clear, just like i did when i posted this notification, that this is only a hedge, like i'm still, 80 85 long on this market, uh and so yeah. My hedge cost me a little bit of money today when you look at it as a portfolio return wise, because it's not a perfect hedge, it's not perfectly aligned. It was about uh, a 20 cost uh the insurance wise, but um hey. You know what still still very long term bullish very long term excited, and this gives you a little bit of an update in terms of how a hedge could work uh, what it costs you, when the market keeps going up, but either way in terms of the Market today it was a good day.

A lot of people made money. I made money. I hope you made money as well, uh and uh. If you didn't.

I hope you make good money when we get back to work on friday. In the meantime, enjoy your thanksgiving check out the programs in that expiring, coupon code link down below and folks see in the next one thanks so much bye.