Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open live stream, so today is thor's day uh in case you didn't know, that's where thursday got its name from thor, but uh yeah today is uh thursday and november 18th. We're now just eight days away from a black friday and uh macy's is just absolutely crushing it again. It has been the retail and recovery stock of of honestly not just a year but uh, probably the last year and a half that has outperformed almost uh any other recovery stock that i can think of every time. I look at recovery stocks, at least of larger, more mature companies.

I'm sure there are penny stocks that have done quite well, but take a look there. We go all right, so macy's, right now up 14 in the pre-market, i'm going to pull up to see what kind of particular news we've got here, but i was looking at this. I'm like wow. There goes macy's again it's it's really really incredible.

Uh! Look at macy's on the day chart which is at this point, probably not even going to reflect uh. This was this latest run that we have. Let's see we're right now at yeah 35 25. go to the day chart here.

Uh 35 is going to bring us all the way up to here. So we're going to have a pretty large line here to the upside stick to the upside on the day. Chart uh, it's it's going to look pretty incredible. Look at macy's, though, going back prior to the pandemic.

Prior to the pandemic. We were sitting around what 16 as a stock 20 as a stock. We have not seen 35 at macy's since the summer of 2018 and uh. Now it's back to 35 dollars, yeah and, and it appears almost unstoppable as it's honestly, it's e-commerce business is attracting more customers than anybody would ever think possible.

People were thinking, that's it macy's. Just roll over and die uh nope uh, that's pretty remarkable! So uh, let's see here, we have uh okay yeah, so we had uh. It looks like earnings this morning, so let's go ahead and pull exactly what those wore, because this this is pretty remarkable. Happy for macy's, i i don't invest in any recovery stocks, so it's not something that uh benefit from, but that's okay can't be part of everything and i think that's actually a good lesson for uh for just investing in general.

Is you got ta remember that when you are investing, you cannot be an investor in literally everything, it's impossible, otherwise, you're going to turn into uh. You know somebody who basically just owns more stocks than the s p, 500 and basically you're just hoping the market does well because you're so diversified you're. Just in everything now, which i suppose, diversity isn't necessarily a bad thing. But i think it really comes down to what point uh in you, your life, you are where uh, what are you looking for? More outsized gains, above them beyond what the market is returning or safety in diversity, uh, but uh anyway, so uh? Okay, let's see here, macy's comparable sales were up 32 uh to uh last year's q3.

That's incredible! It's uh! It's forecast is insane. It saw 3.4 as an adjusted eps 3.4 to 3.75 they're coming in with almost actually more than a dollar more at 457 to 476. That's incredible: uh we've got, let's see here: macy's adjusted net income came in at 386 million dollars. Folks, the market was only expecting them to make 95 million dollars.

I mean these are absolutely outstanding earnings and this is really a sign of the consumer. Just not given two fs about inflation right now, uh, i mean really, if you think about it, that's that's somewhat. What we have here is uh people, just don't care so much that prices are going up; instead, it's just no. No! No.

We have money. Let's buy. We have money, buy money, buy money, buy it's it's really incredible, but anyway uh. Let's see here uh sales outlook.

We saw that we saw revenue, we saw eps. Digital is targeted to generate 10 billion dollars in sales by 2023. That's macy's forecast for uh top line earnings; that's that's incredible: 10 billion from digital! At the same time, the macy's ceo is expected to announce 10 store, closings and they're, calling labor issues transitory, which they see moderating next year. That's actually a good sign.

If you know, macy's employs a lot of people boy, i just wonder how many let's see here, macy's employees, that's how many they have uh all right. That would be interesting. Aces had wow going into the pandemic. Macy's had about 123 000 employees that has been cut to about 75 000.

As of uh 2020.. That's incredible! I wonder how many they have now. Macy's inc.com still indicates about 90 000.. So i wonder if i wonder if we've added back uh or or if that hasn't been updated since the uh 75 000 figure, because that's 75 000 figure now here's another update.

Craft.Co shows 75 700 employees as of uh 2021. So maybe that's outdated. But anyway, that's a lot of people uh. If anybody can speak about labor shortages, it is gon na be macy's, really incredible, uh really really really incredible.

So it also very good news that we're seeing uh, macy's uh do so well and uh see the labor issues. Uh subsiding so uh next up is uh, nvidia nvidia absolutely destroyed earnings. Yesterday it did fall to about 292. Intraday yesterday fell about three percent going into earnings.

It uh, really crushed earnings. Uh all across uh did very very well and uh. It is presently up nine percent in the pre-market. It is sitting at 319 and 50 cents.

It's really really incredible. Uh it is. It is a very, very tempting company to just buy uh. It has has so many things going for it and uh.

It's just been on a rocket ship uh. I i don't like buying things when they've been on a rocket ship, but in terms of like, if there were any company to do it with nvidia, is a great one. They're not going anywhere anytime soon, and i think their growth is just going to continue to compound, which is really incredible. The technology just keeps getting better and better, which better more the stronger technology gets the the better um better revenues, ultimately and and uh, probably profits that nvidia are going to get unless, of course, every new advancement in technology takes substantially more research and development uh.

But then, quite frankly, i expect costs to go up and and people to be willing to pay for those increased costs, because uh we're gon na end up being so much more productive with with uh higher quality chips. So it's it's a market. You want to be exposed to uh, but anyway, really really great tesla up uh 2.3 sitting at 11 14 right now kind of incredible that during the time that elon is selling we're we're seeing this sort of explosion in tesla soccer. This re-explosion in tesla stock, where we went from about 980 right back to about this 11 figure.

It's it's been uh quite a ride here. Nordstrom is uh sympathy running along with uh macy's, that's kind of exciting. Let's go ahead and uh scroll down here to zebotum we're looking at on the downside, clove down 10.89 percent alibaba down 8.27 percent. I wonder what happened to baba let's find out.

I know that a firm by the way is doing a money offering. No, i think it's a bond offering uh. Let me double check yeah. It was like a 1.2 billion dollar offering they announced, so it makes sense that they're down about 3.7 percent here uh convertible shares.

Okay got it, so it's 1.25 billion dollars of senior notes. So basically, these can be converted into shares at some point in the future. The markets like that a company raises money, but generally don't like the uh future additional shares that you're going to see. Let's see here, okay, i'm trying to see here if we have any kind of price, a stock price that these can convert at uh, don't see that right now, okay, so i have to either i'll have to read more into this a little bit later, but their Press release doesn't seem to indicate all right anyway, okay, so bond, offering of 1.25 billion.

I mean that that should really help them expand in uh in australia and even in other areas too, which pretty incredible uh good amount of money. There uh rivien down four point: three: three percent: let's find out what happened with baba here, that's good yeah, four percent. On canoe baba, okay, alibaba's adjusted ebitda estimates fall more than eight percent okay, so estimates are falling and alibaba has announced that they expect weak chinese consumption over the the coming quarters. It's really interesting uh because that's um really what you're seeing is such a strength in u.s, consumer consumption and alibaba, now expecting a weak chinese consumer.

That's interesting, huh! It's probably honestly the property issue! Uh! Let's see oil whoops, huh yeah, i mean really evergreen. I feel like that would if i were in china, it would make me nervous about uh the real estate market and, if i were in the real estate market and in the stock market, i'd probably probably have to take some attendees just to uh to insulate myself Right that would make sense, be very reasonable right, so maybe uh and then i'll probably also spend less money, which is another thing that uh probably be reasonable all right. So what do we have? We have uh huh, okay, no particular news here on rivien uh. In terms of why rivian's down about 3.6 after falling a chunk yesterday, let's see microvest 1.77 coinbase 1.23 xl fleets down about a half percent.

Let's go and look at the broader market see what we got going on. We do also have a little bit of a crypto slip going on which i really want to take a look at and see technically what we got going on all right. So here we go uh dow jones futures right now up about 0.08 percent uh, a 0.26 bump in the s, p, futures and nasdaq futures up 0.53 percent uh. And if we get to bonds, let's see here unchanged at 1.6 for the 10-year oil uh.

Still shy of that uh 85, where we were it's a lot of talk that when we crossed 85, that was going to be a sign that uh, that's it we're going uh we're going up to 800 didn't happen. Remember commodities tend to rotate down in the long run, commodities can be traded in a short term, though. Okay, let's see now look at uh. Look at crypto bitcoin down about 50 uh down to about 58 900 ethereum sitting at about 4 100.

uh. It was just honestly, i mean a few days ago where, where folks were talking about uh ethereum hitting 5k soon and uh and and 5k parties happening cardano sitting at uh 1.81 down 13.27 percent in the last week here, uh bitcoin only down about 8.84, but still Starting to see a lot of uh alts sell off a little more here, sheep down 19 percent ethereum's down 11.66 percent. You you do solve crypto.com coin up, uh a good chunk here, but uh uni swap 16 percent bitcoin cash down 15 xc is down 10 uh mana, the the central land uh. The metaverse coin here is actually up 12.3 percent right now, 46 on the week.

Still doing incredibly well but boy, oh boy, you got some volatility here: uh, okay, let's uh! Let's look at bitcoin as a chart overall see what we got going on. So bitcoin gets a little interesting if we uh if we start breaking the 58 000 line. So far, we've really been hanging out here at about 59 000.. Look at this.

You got about four touch points here, uh on the one minute, it's just on the one minute uh at fifty nine thousand. If we go out, let's go to the one hour chart. Let's see here on the one hour chart, we get touch points closer to about 586, a couple of them here with a little bit of a breakthrough here uh. This was a moment where we almost uh we.

This is the lowest point where we almost got to uh that 58 000., but it does kind of feel like we are we're trending to that 58 000, at least at the moment. We'd rather be rubber, banding around 60k uh and so trending down to 58. Not so great, if it breaks 58 next, stop in my opinion, is 54, which is not so ideal. So a little bit a little bit.

Something you want to watch for, in my opinion, is, is potentially a strong or sudden break under uh 58. So we'll keep an eye on that all right, let's see here what else is moving, so we talked about. Macy's talked about video. We talked about bitcoin tesla's up two percent um unity; one point: six: seven percent: okay, trade desk trade desk up another one percent sitting at 108..

It's awesome etsy's up again, my goodness point: eight seven percent - probably some of that - has to do with macy's run uh, which is interesting, because macy's is really pushing that digital strategy, uh, which you really have a great digital strategy with uh with nc. Of course, uh. All right, what do we got here? Good morning? I was thinking of a yolo. Could you take a look at a call for tesla for 1500? Oh gosh, um wow.

I i mean that's, that's uh, that's a that's a yolo, all right! Uh! You know you look at historic volatility. Oh it's got to be at highs right now, oh yeah, i mean this is uh. This is a rough time to buy calls. Tesla does have this tendency of of running in in waves, though, obviously we're in this pretty positive ev cycle right now, question is: how long is that, going to last before we get another eevee bear market right now we are seeing volatility that we really haven't seen Since march of 2021, on tesla we're sitting at a historic uh, 10-day volatility of about 86 compared to a 100-day average of 44., so you're almost twice as volatile right now, which means in in some essence you're paying substantially more for uh for calls right now.

Gosh tesla um - probably not a play that i would make, but uh especially out of the money, this much er you mean you're. I can't even i can't even get to that pricing on uh weeble. Let's see if i just go to calls now, yeah i mean the highest i can go here is uh is. Is 13.50 65 cent spread uh here you're paying about 36 bucks? Let's see if it let me go higher.

Oh there we go 1500. If i go this height, my options premium doesn't even update on weeble because well that's weeble! For you yeah, i mean you. You really just have to believe that there'll be some form of a catalyst for for end of the year. Deliveries.

That's going to make tesla explode and maybe maybe you know it's entirely possible - it's definitely possible i'll leave it. This way i bought back the call that i sold on tesla when it when it fell uh. It fell a good chunk and make sure that, but i'm pretty sure i did yeah all right. Let's see here, maybe i didn't i don't know.

I hope i did, but i'm gon na take a look yeah. Okay, so but yeah remember these these uh ev cycles. They are cycles uh and so are stock market rallies and look i'm i'm the biggest fan of this rally. I i've been waiting for an end of the year rally forever and it's funny.

Sometimes i see comments. People are like, oh just trying to fud, to get the market to fall again, eh, it's like no! Not at all. I want to be realistic. Yeah.

I did get rid of my sold call on tesla. Oh all, right! Let's go ahead and look at uh paypal. Okay, what's going on paypal, paypal, gosh, stuck in the toilet here, 206. incredible uh, and then what about uh good old lemonade, lemonade, uh lemonade? Is god, oh, my goodness, lemonade's sitting at 57.87? That's incredible! Let's see here rivien reviews down about three percent lucid! It's a little bit of a potential pre-indicator of an ev cycle, slowing down right when we're seeing a couple days now in a row of red for both uh, lucid and rivian.

So we'll see if that trend, uh down continues and at some point there good weigh on tesla again all right so alibaba yeah 8.9, a firm's actually not doing horribly for a 1.2 billion offering uh the fact that it's down 3.78 could be a lot worse. Okay, we got about four minutes to the opening bell. It's like honey mining is down about 1.78 activision 0.84, not a terrible amount of red, but let's see here, expi 0.15 wayfair neo paypal. These guys barely move in here, nvidia 10.

10. Now on nvidia. Oh, my goodness and uh macy's sitting at 13.6, canadian solar, all of a sudden up four percent. Wonder if we got some news over here in canadian solar, let's see csiq, we thought their ticker symbol honestly was a little odd, uh, okay, so canadian solar! Ah, they reported revenues.

Eps comes in at 52 cents. Revenue forecast is actually lower than expected, 1.5 to 1.6 billion versus 1.8 expected. They saw a revenue of 1.23 versus 1.33 expected, that's less. So that's a miss on the revenue.

That's a miss on forecast, but it's actually a beat on the bottom line: 42 cents versus 24 for adjusted, eps margin of gross margin of 18.6 percent um well. Well: okay and canadian solar prepares to reign in production capacity, expansion plans. None of this sounds like incredibly good, but the stock's still up four percent, but why does it say how? How does it figure? It beat estimates there's a headline here that they beat estimates. I don't understand.

Net revenue was 1.23 billion, that's less than the 1.33 expected. I think margin maybe came in higher than expected. Oh, this is a little weird one. Yeah here's another headline misses on revenue.

The headlines are a little weird. The numbers imply a a double miss and a single beat, but oh well all right. So, let's see here uh, oh you congratulations! You bought uh nvidia on earnings yesterday, good job because you are now up uh right. Let's see yeah, i you know, i don't play earnings, but it's got to be fun when you do, especially especially once you know the results, then it's just a matter of how bullish are you on on those results? Uh, because something sometimes it takes some while for the market to respond, although sometimes too, you see a little bit of euphoria in the after hours and then that fizzles out.

So the fact that it's it's continuing to push here, it's really impressive. Where tesla go, there's tesla 1.6 tesla's softening a little bit here. End phase 1.5, though huh all right. Let's go ahead and pop in here see what's going on bloomberg 59 000 for bitcoin uh.

Let's see bill gates says: coba deaths may drop to flu levels by mid-2022. Getting inflation right is make or break a make or break moment on wall street yeah. I believe that uh, let's see here, kathy wood's flagship fund, has dumped almost every zillow share. Yeah we've seen that uh seeing her start uh.

Sorry, she it's weird, you know. Well, it's not really weird. Remember she bought the day before earnings, but after those earnings goodbye not happy about the real estate sector at all, which honestly i mean like, even though that should be bullish for redfin it, a redfin's, been a complete lag. I mean look at this.

It's at 43.82, embarrassing all right - let's listen in here walmart or are they usual mall stores? I think that william sonoma, laura alvarez, still doesn't get the respect she deserves, but i think it can come as sweet as soon as this season get to the opening belt down here guys. I wish you were here pretty loud at the big board. It's salad, restaurant chain, sweet green, celebrating an ipo pricing, 13 million at 28 at the nasdaq solar car company sono motors, also celebrating its ipo. Look at that.

It's about what 75 green! That's that's kind of exciting, good, very nice, very nice uh! I, like it, uh all right so uh. What else do we have here? Let's go ahead: uh, let's listen to jim just for one second, and i want to see how things are reacting. I gave an interview last year and uh that was considered to be uh. Not qriket according to andrew, i don't blame it because it was a gap.

Profit uh, not straight out profitability. So a question about how much money they're really making and how much they're not uh did that on kara swisher's show paul. That is a rigorous show. Don't go on next.

I love the shouting. We're gon na kick off the morning, guys um with nvidia jim uh s, p. 322. uh.

I guess the question that you'll get a lot on. This name is how much you are willing to pay for this kind of growth. That's that's literally exactly the question is: how much do you want to pay for nvidia uh anyway, all right, so let's go ahead and see how things are moving all right now in the market. So uh, what do you got? You got ribbian a little bit of a fall here, uh ribbing down about six percent right now, uh! Oh, that's! A solid red candlestick looks like we start burning here and starting to burn here into the open.

Looks like nvidia is turning a little bit red here on the open, so we've got a little bit of profit taking here right at the start, uh looks like a similar result here at macy's some profit taken taken off. You do have uh lucid now down eight percent and rivian falling fast uh, even a firm's dropping a little bit more. Although he's down three point, eight sitting at four percent right now, tattooed chef down 2.8 uh lemonade down another 2.74 percent uh we've got uh neos down another couple percent as well. You, let's see here, where is uh tesla, also turning red a lot of a lot of red at the moment here and uh.

Let's see here, amazon, .72. Okay, what about? Let's see here all right! There we go okay! So then we have hmm sheep. Well, yeah. We saw she was down at about 45 doge sitting about 22 8 uh blink and yeah.

A firm just dropped about another percent. Here uh, it's now sitting at about 4.73 144, still a little too high for by the dip uh personally, but look at rivian folks. It's now down nine percent uh, it's not good! So, let's see um. Okay, then you have, let's see here - that's rivie, rivien and lucid down a chunk uh just over eight percent.

We have trying to understand what's going on with tesla, because we we will see at some point here an end to the ev super cycle. I do have a i'm going to take a look here, got a call. I still have a call option on tesla. I've got a couple call options on tesla that are up uh i've, actually one, that's quite out of the money that i kind of did a little bit of yolo on.

So if somebody had asked me about yellow call options or tesla, but that's a march 2023, that is a 1725 uh and that's uh, it's up about 27k right now or uh 24. So uh you want to keep an eye on that. If the ev cycle starts uh slowing down again a little bit, that might be one to uh escape. So then you've got let's see here.

What else do we have? What has pallet here doing right now, talent here is uh sitting down again uh. I got ta make my video on my concerns on, and i should have done this a while ago, uh lemonade insure tech and some thoughts on pound tier as well. We've got uh beyond me, piton piton, sitting at 51.. Carnival cruise lines really has not taken off.

If you take a look at the day chart here on carnival cruise lines, oh yeah lots of tesla rumors for 12.9 because of elon's cryptic tweets, it's uh kind of funny. Okay, let's see here what else? Okay right so uh, then bitcoin. Let's take a look at bitcoin here: bitcoin on the five minute chart somewhat stable right now around that 59 level, somewhat stable, at least okay expi back down to about 40 bucks kind of channeling over here neo down about 2.5 lemonade's down about three rivian's, almost down A full 10 here, yeah, well: okay, um. The fundamentals changed on peloton like four months ago, so i sold all of my peloton uh three or four months ago and uh there's uh.

There is a fundamental shift in insurtech that has happened uh within the last uh earnings, which uh those were an unexpected shift, uh, which i'm not very happy about. So i've sold a lot of my uh insure tech uh, no i'm not completely out, but i did sell a lot of my insure tech, uh palantir uh there there is a there is a new potential concern. I don't i don't know yet how to measure it. It's it's very, very difficult um and i also don't know how to talk about it.

Yet because it's uh, it's one that uh, oh, look: a firm selling off a little more 6.7 out, it's a little bit more! I think if you say it the wrong way. I think i think people like it it's it might sound to some degree silly uh, but also extremely valid uh. So i've got to figure that out so anyway. Maybe i'll talk about it today, uh, okay, anyway, so uh, rivieni and lou sit down about seven and eight percent tattoo chef's down about five percent beachbody's down another three percent.

Robin hood is another one. That's just getting absolutely eradicated. I mean look at this robin hood's down another 3.3 to 31 uh. It's it's really really incredible.

Uh wow is shift. I've had the same thesis on all year, which is that well since about march, and that's that the whole car shortage is bad for shift uh. I was actually surprised that they did as well as they did on earnings. They ran to like seven dollars and seventy cents, but then they like instantly evaporated.

It was crazy, uh it sold off like instantly the next day. It was very, very interesting anyway. Uh macy's dropping a little bit here, macy's down from it's about 13 14 run down about 9.5, now to a 9.5 gain, obviously still doing very well. Qualcomm look qualcomm's at 188, oh my gosh, okay, so qualcomm's for sure sympathy running with amd uh.

I'm sorry with with nvidia uh nvidia, obviously crushing it on earnings up 10.5 percent qualcomm used to be stuck somewhere around the 140s 130s. Take a look at it. Look at this look at this. This right here is qualcomm.

The darn thing ran, like 166 got, stuck got stuck between really a range of 125 to 150 sat in this channel since march. It sat on this channel and really only two weeks ago started taking off it's doing very well, very, very well! Oh! Is there a lock up expiration for shift? I can look into that. Uh. Give me a sec.

Let's see here, okay shift, maybe that maybe maybe maybe yeah, because maybe there was a lock-up expiration right after earnings. That would make sense, because so many people took tennies on that one, although actually a lot of people who were locked up into shift did not have attendees uh, because a lot of the pipe investors got it we're stuck at ten dollars and they got out at You know maybe six. I do not see discussion on lockup, so i do not know the answer to that. However, we can find it probably relatively quickly shift investor relations.

Let me just go to, let me see if they mentioned anything in their press release, earnings, call shareholder letter, okay, we'll go back in a second here, the news and other things. Uh keep in mind. This video is brought to you by the amazing programs on building your wealth link down below, where you get all my buy, sell, notifications anytime i buy or sell and uh stocks and psychology of money, of course, and we have private course member live streams every day. The market is open on lockdown, lock up nope nope, nothing on this one.

I will look at uh and use that black friday coupon, which is now out the price, will be going up black friday evening at 11, 59 pm, so you may as well join. So that way, you get my trade notifications or my thoughts on this market over the next uh two weeks, which i think honestly. I think that the next two weeks and i've been saying this for a few days now. I think the market's gone a little nuts and uh.

There are some things that i'm taking profits on uh, lock, lock no mention of lockups at all uh in their quarterly. So honestly, i'd have to go dig through their annual uh, which is much more exhausting uh. I'll, we'll do a very, very quick here, but usually with the annual you'll have to uh you'll have to do math on how many days after a certain point uh you you get the the lockups here uh. This is okay, in particular.

Approximately 34 million shares of our common stock about 41 of our outstanding common shares, uh of our employees and other shareholders, are subject to lock-up restrictions that expire november 2021. There it is oh, oh, my gosh, 41 of their outstanding shares are uh, are subject to uh. To lock up expirations in november of 2021., oh wow yeah that that that explains it right there whoa. It must have been right after earnings.

Honestly, that's crazy yeah that that'll do it somebody's asking if i'm still an ada so uh, i screwed up my portfolio a little bit in the way that i uh was trading and i actually don't do not have any ada right now. I haven't had ada, since it was somewhere around like two bucks and uh. That's because i i uh did a heavier move on bitcoin, which uh the latest buys that i had at bitcoin was about 61.3. It was great when it ran to 69, but now it's at 59, which uh puts me down about 2 300 per coin.

I think i'm down like four and a half percent, unfortunately, on that on that particular purchase and i'm really paying attention to that 58 line. But at the same time, i also bought a ton of voyager digital which uh uh, which i've taken a lot of profits on and uh. I didn't perfectly time the top on it, but uh definitely definitely ran it. Uh, well, it ran and uh definitely ran some profits uh.

I i've a lot of excitement for voyager digital, but then there's some things that really frustrate me customer service. Being one that really frustrates me. The wait list really frustrates me and uh. I also just recently realized this their uh.

What's it called um? Oh, what is it uh when, when you go to when you want to transfer out stock, let me see this voyager or not stock. If you want to transfer out coins uh, it was it's limiting me on how much if i wanted to transfer a coin. So, for example, if i wanted to sell uh bitcoin, i would be trapped into their ecosystem, which is very frustrating because i transferred in on unlimited amount of bitcoin, essentially right, i transferred in uh. You know 6.2 bitcoin.

There was no limit into what i transferred in well. If i want to send out, i can only transfer 0.4 bitcoin at a time like what do you? What so, it's gon na take me like 15 times to transfer very annoying, uh, very frustrating so anyway, not not happy about that. That's all i got ta say so. Let's see here, okay, what else here lockup was mentioned lock up ended on the 50..

Oh thank you for that jolly. That's interesting that the shift lock up ended uh on the would you say the 15th yeah. That's that's very interesting because this that was probably when we saw a low for the for the uh for the stock, but we'll go look at it right now. Okay shift so yeah, definitely at a low here, 15th.

Okay. So if it ended here you i wouldn't be surprised. If it was, you sure, was the 15th, because you got a big spike of volume here on the 12th uh, so that that that's interesting anyway, let's see how other things are going. Oh whoa macy's just took off, so it was up.

14 of the pre-market fell to about nine percent just rocket shipped, and now it's sitting at 17.1 percent really really incredible. Uh ten percent on uh nvidia you've got uh rivian down about uh and that's up. Ten percent on nvidia, incredible rivian's down about nine point, four, a firm's down about five percent on that um. What's it called um bond offering yeah lemonade is bleeding again, so i mean the robin hood.

Bleed is pretty disgusting as well. Pretty gross big big old uh um bleed over here as well all right. So then we've got what else. Let's see here, um, okay, let's see here uh backed holdings down about three percent.

They mentioned that i think they're starting to take uh. What's it called um ethereum, i think which i thought was pretty cool, but i still, i still don't like their stock at the valuation it that thing momentum ran. So much is really really incredible. Uh how much that momentum ran, but anyway, okay, so what else? Here i am looking at a robin hood options.

Let's see here robin hood, let's see what we got in the in the hoods of the robins: oh okay, robin hood! Okay! So, let's see here, okay, so yeah shift. That's where i keep a lot of my shift. So i on my shift. It says i'm down.

14. That's a bummer! I really like chiff too, but that lock up explains a lot uh. It's not a very large portion of my portfolio, i want to say it's like point three or point four percent of my portfolio. So it's not really that big of a deal uh what's uh, probably a little larger, is like a 0.45 percent or something like that.

Something i could find out and that's hippo uh, and that i did very well on with options but in terms of shares. Hippo has been horrible, uh really really sucking. Okay, let's see here: okay, dokey, all right uh what else so huh kev keeping the hood alive. Somebody wants to know why they're getting rinsed on disney, i'm not laughing at your situation, they're laughing at you saying, rinsed.

I've never heard that before that's probably weird, but i haven't heard of that before they're getting rinsed, that's a good one. Dude come on man, you're. Getting rinsed, you know it's sad at like 170 forever. What's it add now one 155 come on man.

What is that? That's uh? Eight eight percent eight point: three percent you wan na see rinsed look at options on like pinterest or redfin. That's when you look that's when you look and go: oh, that's! That's rinsed, uh yeah call options for oh. I actually have a tesla call in here for seven hundred dollars. Oh that's cool um wow! It's a 20 march of 2023 tesla call for 700 forgot.

I had that well that one's obviously doing well uh, okay. So oh whoa, that's crazy! I have an end face call in here that has always been upside down and it is a uh. 250 dollar call on end phase 20 contracts. It's 124 000 market value.

That thing has been read all year long and now it's up 9 300, because the break even on that one is 307 dollars wow and face. Let's see here: oh my gosh end phase. What are you doing? That's still, it's actually trying to figure out where it is today. No, it's actually down a half percent.

Today, then you've got nvidia up 11.2 roblox roblox again nine percent! Oh my lord! That's impressive! That's really! Incredible! Uh! Let's see here, okay square still sitting at that 235 level, kind of stuck etsy 1.2. Definitely moving on on the macy's here. Uh you've got what else. Let's see here, tesla tesla's up only about point eight percent, so it's softened a little bit.

Okay. What else? And we have apple 0.37 and face okay and face pretty much flat. Rivian look at this 10.7. Now it's continuing to bleed yeah i'll, go ahead and look at uh.

What's it called uh amd in just a second, that's another interesting one that you wonder how much amd is going to catch up with nvidia hold on a sec, got ta post my little my little notification here, uh, because i just did a little bit: uh sellins Um uh, okay, okay, one sec; oh three hours, ish, okay, one sec; hmm, oh okay! There we go all right! So sorry about that. All this uh! It took a little longer to write than i expected, but uh there we go okay, cool! So what else uh? Then we've got uh: oh amd's up five percent. That's wonderful! Oh you! You know what the metaverse stuff has just done so freaking! Well, how is matterport doing by the way matterport? Oh my gosh at the same time as they say, the metaverse stuff is doing so. Well, matterport's down: seven percent: eight percent: oh my gosh, that's crazy, because yesterday yesterday i literally bought puts on and i sent an alert for this as well on stocks and psychology money uh.

I bought a ton of puts on matterport and rivian. Just yesterday uh oh wow, i was not expecting them to sell off the very next day. Uh ribbian puts right now are up 74 000 and matterport puts are up uh. 37.

000. 38. That's crazy! Obviously, the matter matter port i own though uh so uh. You know i even though i might be i'll be up on the put uh.

That's only i'm only partially hedged on that one, so it still hurts more, but uh. That's okay! I didn't want to fully hedge around report because i love matterport, but that's crazy. That's that's a big fault quickly. Uh ribbing, i don't own.

So i don't care if that one goes down to like 50 bucks. I think that one's massively overvalued, but both of them have definitely experienced momentum. You can watch my video on that too, where i talked about that uh. My rationale for that it's called what was it called? It was like.

Oh, my selling out my big hedge watch that one that one will explain exactly what i did and why and i don't always post a video about all of my trades because too many of them okay, what else? So then we have yeah lucid's burning, okay, rivien's down now, 12 percent evgo is evaporating a firm's down six percent. After that offering charge the chargers are selling off that momentum they had when uh is. Are we gon na have there's a lot of red here? Is the s p gon na turn red yeah almost so it's only a point. Six percent - that's interesting and the chargers are giving up their momentum.

Hmm, but tesla's still going that's very interesting, huh, okay and uh. How is neo neo is down about three percent. That's fascinating, okay, but uh. What i really think is fascinating is the uh the macy's run.

I like that a lot all right. What else here um all right? Okay, let's look at a little bit of news, see what we got going on here. So we have spot bitcoin etf, facing insurmountable hurdles. Okay, that's bad hold on a sec, we're gon na look that up in one second, i just have to post this kevin got with the program: oh okay, hold on a sec.

That's that's quite interesting, uh! Oh, that sounds like fun to me: okay, one second, okay, hmm so uh. When i sell what's worth noting that it's generally because i want money to buy the dip, so i have been selling some things and uh. That's also because i feel like the market's been somewhat euphoric. It's specifically uh.

I mean oh, my gosh roblox another 9.45. Let me look at the financials, really quick of roblox and compare them to what we've seen here and then i'm going to look at that. Bitcoin headline here from bloomberg, but yeah i like trying to take profits uh when i can on some things so that way you you do have money to go, buy the dip. I know that's timing, the market with some stocks, but that's okay for me.

So this is interesting: roblox has no path to profitability. Right now i did not know that i'm not in roblox. So it's okay, but uh we're expecting about 20 growth for the next two years, potentially a little bit more 20 to 30 percent their margin. Their gross margin is great at 75 percent, but then something collapses, because when you get to net income they lose money.

Every single year, they're expected to lose about 50 million dollars this year, followed by 31, mil 13 mil 400 mil 300 mil they're they're spending. I don't know i want to know what they're spending money on, what how roblox investor it's got to be like ads or ads and or research and development i'd. Rather it be research and development than ads. But you just don't know i'd like to see their sheets which, oh i i want their sec version uh.

I i'm just really like fussy about when they give me like pete like the fancy, like shareholder letters and that crap i just want the sec part uh. I can just understand it better. Give me the filings so quarterly. Here we go yes see.

This is where i live. Oh see this i like okay, so where are they spending all their money? 509 mill cost of rev was a fraction of of their revenue. Developer exchange fees, 130, research in dev, 130 infrastructure and trust and safety, their marketing is very low. They don't spend a lot of money on marketing.

That's what i wanted to see. So that's good! Yeah! Nick! I see that viral interesting. Okay, so they're spending of their revenue, they're spending about 27 on research and development, probably around 25 on infrastructure and trust and safety that that's probably like moderation, i'm expecting uh, because it's it is uh a no annual yet well, then i'm gon na need to get An s1 yeah all right, fine, okay, so infrastructure trust and safety. What is that exactly here? We go expenses related to the operation of our data, centers and technical infrastructure.

Third-Party service providers such as cloud computing hosting data storage - rent, oh wow, okay. So that's that's straight up cost! That's cost of goods sold here, that's hosting! That's! That's money, developer, exchange fees! So what's cost to revenue. Here we go cost of revenue. Cost of revenue consists of third party payment processing fees.

Oh wow gosh. They burn a lot of money, so they burn money, processing payments. This is the data centers, essentially and and cyber security and such their marketing is very low, which is good, but then what the heck is developer exchange fees if these are the transaction fees. So this must be what the consumer's paying and then maybe this is what the uh, the developers, that's like, the split with the developers or whatever developer exchange fees represent the amount earned by developers and creators on the platform.

I i see. Okay, a major goal is to drive as much money to our developer and creator community as possible, while maintaining reasonable margins and free cash flows. You have negative projections for net income. We intend to use future cost efficiencies realized in other areas of our business, to increase our earnings to developers and creators.

I mean they're always going to be paying out money to their developers and creators, which is very very like that's great for for their their the people on their platform, but for shareholders. That's not very sexy um. I mean short of doing a very deep dive here. They spend everything, wow, uh, okay, all right uh, hence net losses, all right wow.

I can't believe it's i mean it's that it's it's certainly not it's not running. It can't be running on fundamentals. At this point uh. You know it's it's uh.

What's what's the cap of this thing now, roblox stuck 80 billion dollars, what's activision activision activisions 48, take two take two interactive is 20 and then what's another one ea uh 38 gosh, you could almost buy all of the other game developers for the valuation that roblox Has that's nutty what yeah 38 plus uh i mean not quite, but certainly ea and activision no way activision, that's 38 at ea and 48 here, okay, so not quite 50! Plus 40 is about 90., it's about 88.. Almost you can almost trade roblox for all of activision and all of uh ea. You could certainly get activision and take too interactive for roblox. Oh my gosh, that is nutty uh.

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, all right all right! I i i know it's the it's! The metaverse news i know but like that can only last so long with the metaphors momentum uh. This is where crypto comes in to help the cost of transactions yeah unless you're voyager - oh my gosh, okay roblox, the ribbian of the metaverse, i don't know i mean like from from uh from a momentum standpoint. I get it from a fundamentals it it i.

I could not justify buying it at these levels. Uh kathy wood should should trim okay, so rivian's down 10.5 percent lucid's down 10 uh a firm's down 5.8. Oh, did matterport recover mttr matterport's, actually recovering. That's good.

What else here? Uh, okay nvidia's at 11, ebay, tesla's at one percent, huh. Okay, all right! Oh, we were gon na look at the bitcoin thing right. Okay, so here's a hold on yes, uh there uh check out rivian puts they're killing it. I know i know i'll.

Do a quick look, i usually don't like looking, but it's trade. So i guess it's okay, because at some point it just might say it makes sense to sell it. I probably won't close my rivie and put though, unless it fell, it's probably gon na fall to 100 for me, so i think that's that's. When i take 10 days, yeah i'm up 72k on it, uh 74k, now 75k.

Now! Well, i'm just going to keep sitting here. No, i just could it could have gone the other way too. It's just the next day, but anyway remember you want all my alerts join me in stocks and psychology, money linked down below use that black friday code before black friday uh and remember a lot of people bundle up for the zero to millionaire real estate. Investing as well really good way to diversify, but first right now we've got to talk about bitcoin and the spot etf.

Look there's a lot of enthusiasm that bitcoin is going to get an etf like iau. Iau is a gold etf, where, basically, you uh can buy access to the price of gold essentially and they can buy gold in within the etf, but you're really just trying to track the price of gold is what you're doing so. You don't have the benefits of actually having gold in your hand, but that also means that you don't have the cost of storing gold or of paying for gold to be minted uh for you, because a gold has to be turned into coins or or bars. Uh and there's a fee associated with that there's shipping costs there.

There are fees uh so anyway, that that's iau right well, there's been a lot of enthusiasm that a bitcoin etf could lead uh hundreds of billions, if not even trillions, of dollars to flow into crypto. Just like we saw with the bitcoin futures etf, the problem with the bitcoin futures etf is the bitcoin futures. Etf is expensive. First of all, you should not buy and haul a futures.

Etf, uh, futures etfs are meant for trading. Nonetheless, the uh bitcoin futures funds, like uh bito, uh and uh bt by the effing dip, btfd uh, have done exceptionally well. Uh beto has over uh a billion point, two assets under management and and basically got to 1.2 aum within within days of launching their bitcoin futures etf, a lot of enthusiasm for that very high fees. If you don't understand, contango or backwardation do not get into a futures etf, a big mistake uh, but anyway, so this is leading to a lot of enthusiasm for a bitcoin spot etf.

So that way you could get into something with like super low fees. Like imagine if you could buy a bitcoin etf and the fees are like vanguard level fees where, where you're paying somewhere around you know, i don't know 0.04 or something like that - probably more on bitcoin, it might be something like even 0.25, but it'd be dirt cheap And you wouldn't have to worry so much about uh security. You'd have sipc insurance uh, you uh! You wouldn't get the benefit of being able to stake your crypto, obviously, but it would open up the doors to a lot of people who are uncomfortable with buying crypto buying crypto, and so the expectations are that bitcoin spot etf would lead bitcoin to skyrocket, yeah, but But right now, bloomberg, uh intelligence has just released uh a statement and now bloomberg. You know a lot of people.

When i talk about crypto, i'm going to give a a heads up like a preface here: okay, usually when i reference bloomberg and crypto, the comment section is full of bitcoin. Uh is getting flooded by bloomberg uh. I i understand that, because they do report a lot on crypto but uh in fairness to bloomberg. They've also done very well at uh, indicating uh potential runs coming.

I have uh i've traded very profitably watching for uh. You know some of their their indicators, so i think they're they're great, but anyway uh they just released uh an update minutes ago that quote spot bitcoin etfs have virtually no chance of sec approval in the near term. We believe, given the agency's concerns about lack of oversight and potential for market manipulation, yet etfs that track bitcoin futures are allowed even they, even though they are intertwined with the spot market. The key difference, futures etfs, don't have to go through the 19b4 review process.

So i don't know what that is. I'm gon na do a quick little google that 19b4 review uh. Okay here it is, it is uh according to investopedia. This is a form used by the sec to uh.

Basically, uh do with some crazy rules. It's some regulatory uh uh, oh interesting, the sec invites the public to have their say. A public comment period follows each 19b4 filing whereby other exchanges and the public can voice their support or opposition to a proposed rule change. During this time, interested persons are invited to submit in writing their views and arguments, and why would that be bad self-regulatory organizations, although sros are private organizations who file these they're still subject to government imposed regulation to a degree and the go? Oh here it is okay, since the sro, the self-regulating organization, has some regulatory influence over an industry or profession.

It can serve as a watchdog to guard against fraud or unprofessional practices. Interesting, okay, so and then sros that would be regulating might be things like. The new york stock exchange chicago board of trade, blah blah blah all right, whatever, so some complicated form uh that uh that essentially allows an sro. I believe to regulate, to have some degree of regulation uh over over bitcoin and and that form uh is uh is, is basically what's potentially stopping bitcoin and bitcoin spot etf from getting approved.

Now, i'm not a regulation expert at all. You have to be like a securities attorney for this, but apparently that's what's stopping a bitcoin spot etf for cut from from coming through at any point here in the new near future, at least according to bloomberg. A further update here is that no spot bitcoin etf is likely to be approved by the sec without new regulation or surveillance agreements with exchanges that trade cryptocurrency, the term surveillance sharing agreement appeared 40 times in the sec's 19b4 letter denying the van x etf application. Yet traditional exchanges, such as the sibo cboe, would likely find it impossible to secure such accords with every exchange that offer bitcoin trading.

So this is the the the complaint of the sec appears to be that they they can't seem to find a way that an sro or self-regulating organization, like larger exchanges, would ever be able to actually regulate a bitcoin. And that's the problem and the reason the bitcoin futures snuck through is because they could just bypass this 19b4 process, and so, in other words, bloomberg here believes that, in order for us to get a spot etf, you're going to have to have some probably a whole New congressional set of laws that actually establish a framework for regulating crypto. The cboe recently argued that bitcoin futures market is meaningful and regulated by the commodity futures trading, commission, satisfying the sec's surveillance criteria uh and regarding a spot, bitcoin etf, the sec rejected that uh. Basically, there would be a self-regulating organization capable of preventing manipulation of the bitcoin market.

Wow, manipulating price spot prices would in turn affect futures, regulatory and legal technical difficulties underlie the sec's denial. I mean it sounds like a bunch of bogus is really what it sounds like to me. Uh, the sec is uh, really worried about manipulating the price of bitcoin. The sec's approach to bitcoin etf appears to be missing the forest for the trees, with its stated focus on protecting investors instead limiting their access and leaving them with inferior options.

I agree with that. I mean if you don't have a spot etf, you're kind of stuck with with less lower quality options like the futures etf, which is very, very expensive with fees. In fact, bloomberg here is estimating that the fees for a futures etf could run about 10 a year and the grayscale bitcoin trust, which usually has really large swings and premiums and discounts. It's true.

There was a point last year where the uh grayscale bitcoin trust, was trading for a 40 premium. So when you were putting money into that, you were actually paying a 40 premium for bitcoin and then uh there were. There were periods where you were getting bitcoin for like a 10 discount. It was crazy.

So that's that's not very bullish for uh for bitcoin here this uh this. This bloomberg update and, i think bloomberg's just being realistic. I don't think they're necessarily flooding uh bitcoin, but uh. It's gon na take it's gon na, take an act of congress, probably to get a spot etf for bitcoin uh.

It does look like that. Bitcoin is selling down a little bit on. Potentially this bloomberg update here. Remember bloomberg is uh it's, it might be too early to tell it.

It does look to me like this. Approximately is when this bloomberg update came out here around this 710 uh moment here and uh we've seen a little bit of a cell down here in uh. In in bitcoin from that moment, not much though so it could be could be too early to tell, but anyway that's a bummer for bitcoin uh yeah, especially since there's a lot of enthusiasm around getting an approval, and it doesn't look like that. Approval is coming anytime soon and the sad thing is, there doesn't even appear to be a road map for approval, uh and, and that's probably the most frustrating thing is like at least if we had a road map to approval.

Yes, he maybe if we get this and this done, but if you're just gon na rely on congress, it's gon na be years that sucks all right. Well, uh! That's from bloomberg, for you call it fud, but uh. It doesn't sound good for a future or for a regular etf anytime. Soon, okay, moving on, we have oh canoe down: 14 rivian's down almost 13 percent loose, it's down, 12.2 percent.

The charging companies are getting destroyed matter, ports down 8 uh puts or printing today which actually have um. Tattooed chef is down 6.7 percent, a firm's down six percent, but they did an offering, but otherwise yeah you're you're, getting some some pain, wow robin hood's down 5.5. There's no way the s p isn't negative. At this point, uh you've got lemonade down five point: three percent shift technology is down another five percent zillow's down another five percent you're getting some pain in this market.

The only thing that's that's! Staying up right now, oh pounds here just fell about four percent. How did it fall so freaking fast? Oh man, um, wow, okay, fine, then you've got uh what else oh rivian down even more now it's just it's just for 13.3 right now. How are the indices?.